Last data update: Apr 29, 2024. (Total: 46658 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Hess J [original query] |
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Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Variability in haemoglobin concentration by measurement tool and blood source: an analysis from seven countries
Rappaport AI , Karakochuk CD , Hess SY , Whitehead RD Jr , Namaste SML , Dary O , Parker ME , Neufeld LM , Larson LM , Newton S , Wegmuller R , Moorthy D . J Clin Pathol 2021 74 (10) 657-663 OBJECTIVE: We explore factors such as the blood sampling site (capillary vs venous), the equipment (HemoCue vs automated haematology analyser) and the model of the HemoCue device (201+ vs 301) that may impact haemoglobin measurements in capillary and venous blood. METHODS: Eleven studies were identified, and bias, concordance and measures of diagnostic performance were assessed within each study. FINDINGS: Our analysis included 11 studies from seven countries (Cambodia, India, The Gambia, Ghana, Laos, Rwanda and USA). Samples came from children, men, non-pregnant women and pregnant women. Mean bias ranged from -8.7 to 2.5 g/L in Cambodian women, 6.2 g/L in Laotian children, 2.4 g/L in Ghanaian women, 0.8 g/L in Gambian children 6-23 months and 1.4 g/L in Rwandan children 6-59 months when comparing capillary blood on a HemoCue to venous blood on a haematology analyser. Bias was 8.3 g/L in Indian non-pregnant women and 2.6 g/L in Laotian children and women and 1.5 g/L in the US population when comparing capillary to venous blood using a HemoCue. For venous blood measured on the HemoCue compared with the automated haematology analyser, bias was 5.3 g/L in Gambian pregnant women 18-45 years and 11.3 g/L in Laotian children 6-59 months. CONCLUSION: Our analysis found large variability in haemoglobin concentration measured on capillary or venous blood and using HemoCue Hb 201+ or Hb 301 or automated haematology analyser. We cannot ascertain whether the variation is due to differences in the equipment, differences in capillary and venous blood, or factors affecting blood collection techniques. |
Measuring the burden of infodemics: Summary of the methods and results of the Fifth WHO Infodemic Management Conference
Wilhelm E , Ballalai I , Belanger ME , Benjamin P , Bertrand-Ferrandis C , Bezbaruah S , Briand S , Brooks I , Bruns R , Bucci LM , Calleja N , Chiou H , Devaria A , Dini L , D'Souza H , Dunn AG , Eichstaedt JC , Evers Smaa , Gobat N , Gissler M , Gonzales IC , Gruzd A , Hess S , Ishizumi A , John O , Joshi A , Kaluza B , Khamis N , Kosinska M , Kulkarni S , Lingri D , Ludolph R , Mackey T , Mandić-Rajčević S , Menczer F , Mudaliar V , Murthy S , Nazakat S , Nguyen T , Nilsen J , Pallari E , Pasternak Taschner N , Petelos E , Prinstein MJ , Roozenbeek J , Schneider A , Srinivasan V , Stevanović A , Strahwald B , Syed Abdul S , Varaidzo Machiri S , van der Linden S , Voegeli C , Wardle C , Wegwarth O , White BK , Willie E , Yau B , Purnat TD . JMIR Infodemiology 2023 3 e44207 BACKGROUND: An infodemic is excess information, including false or misleading information, that spreads in digital and physical environments during a public health emergency. The COVID-19 pandemic has been accompanied by an unprecedented global infodemic that has led to confusion about the benefits of medical and public health interventions, with substantial impact on risk-taking and health-seeking behaviors, eroding trust in health authorities and compromising the effectiveness of public health responses and policies. Standardized measures are needed to quantify the harmful impacts of the infodemic in a systematic and methodologically robust manner, as well as harmonizing highly divergent approaches currently explored for this purpose. This can serve as a foundation for a systematic, evidence-based approach to monitoring, identifying, and mitigating future infodemic harms in emergency preparedness and prevention. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we summarize the Fifth World Health Organization (WHO) Infodemic Management Conference structure, proceedings, outcomes, and proposed actions seeking to identify the interdisciplinary approaches and frameworks needed to enable the measurement of the burden of infodemics. METHODS: An iterative human-centered design (HCD) approach and concept mapping were used to facilitate focused discussions and allow for the generation of actionable outcomes and recommendations. The discussions included 86 participants representing diverse scientific disciplines and health authorities from 28 countries across all WHO regions, along with observers from civil society and global public health-implementing partners. A thematic map capturing the concepts matching the key contributing factors to the public health burden of infodemics was used throughout the conference to frame and contextualize discussions. Five key areas for immediate action were identified. RESULTS: The 5 key areas for the development of metrics to assess the burden of infodemics and associated interventions included (1) developing standardized definitions and ensuring the adoption thereof; (2) improving the map of concepts influencing the burden of infodemics; (3) conducting a review of evidence, tools, and data sources; (4) setting up a technical working group; and (5) addressing immediate priorities for postpandemic recovery and resilience building. The summary report consolidated group input toward a common vocabulary with standardized terms, concepts, study designs, measures, and tools to estimate the burden of infodemics and the effectiveness of infodemic management interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Standardizing measurement is the basis for documenting the burden of infodemics on health systems and population health during emergencies. Investment is needed into the development of practical, affordable, evidence-based, and systematic methods that are legally and ethically balanced for monitoring infodemics; generating diagnostics, infodemic insights, and recommendations; and developing interventions, action-oriented guidance, policies, support options, mechanisms, and tools for infodemic managers and emergency program managers. |
Accelerating action to reduce anemia: Review of causes and risk factors and related data needs
Hess SY , Owais A , Jefferds MED , Young MF , Cahill A , Rogers LM . Ann N Y Acad Sci 2023 1523 (1) 11-23 Anemia is a major public health concern. Young children, menstruating adolescent girls and women, and pregnant women are among the most vulnerable. Anemia is the consequence of a wide range of causes, including biological, socioeconomic, and ecological risk factors. Primary causes include: iron deficiency; inherited red blood cell disorders; infections, such as soil-transmitted helminthiasis, schistosomiasis, and malaria; gynecological and obstetric conditions; and other chronic diseases that lead to blood loss, decreased erythropoiesis, or destruction of erythrocytes. The most vulnerable population groups in low- and middle-income countries are often at the greatest risk to suffer from several of these causes simultaneously as low socioeconomic status is linked with an increased risk of anemia through multiple pathways. Targeted and effective action is needed to prevent anemia. Understanding the causes and risk factors of anemia for different population subgroups within a country guides the design and implementation of effective strategies to prevent and treat anemia. A coordinated approach across various expert groups and programs could make the best use of existing data or could help to determine when newer and more relevant data may need to be collected, especially in countries with a high anemia burden and limited information on the etiology of anemia. |
Early Identification of Hearing Loss and Language Development at 32 Months of Age
Harris AB , Seeliger E , Hess C , Sedey AL , Kristensen K , Lee Y , Chung W . J Otorhinolaryngol Hear Balanc Med 2022 3 (4) This study examines the relationship between the early identification of hearing loss and language outcomes for deaf/hard of hearing (D/HH) children, with bilateral or unilateral hearing loss and with or without additional disabilities. It was hypothesized that hearing loss identified by 3 months of age would be associated with better language outcomes. Using a prospective, longitudinal design, 86 families completed developmental instruments at two time points: at an average age of 14.8 months and an average age of 32.1 months. Multiple regression examined how hearing loss identified by 3 months of age contributed to later language outcomes while controlling for developmental level at the first time point. Hearing loss identified by 3 months of age was positively associated with better language outcomes for D/HH children at 32 months of age; however, D/HH children still exhibited language delays, compared to normative scores for same-aged hearing peers for reported measures. Language outcomes of children with unilateral hearing loss were not better than those of children with mild-to-moderate bilateral hearing loss. Children with additional disabilities and more severe bilateral hearing loss had lower language scores than those without. |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2022 119 (15) e2113561119 SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action. |
Multistate Outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 Infections, Including Vaccine Breakthrough Infections, Associated with Large Public Gatherings, United States.
Gharpure R , Sami S , Vostok J , Johnson H , Hall N , Foreman A , Sabo RT , Schubert PL , Shephard H , Brown VR , Brumfield B , Ricaldi JN , Conley AB , Zielinski L , Malec L , Newman AP , Chang M , Finn LE , Stainken C , Mangla AT , Eteme P , Wieck M , Green A , Edmundson A , Reichbind D , Brown VJr , Quiñones L , Longenberger A , Hess E , Gumke M , Manion A , Thomas H , Barrios CA , Koczwara A , Williams TW , Pearlowitz M , Assoumou M , Senisse Pajares AF , Dishman H , Schardin C , Wang X , Stephens K , Moss NS , Singh G , Feaster C , Webb LM , Krueger A , Dickerson K , Dewart C , Barbeau B , Salmanson A , Madoff LC , Villanueva JM , Brown CM , Laney AS . Emerg Infect Dis 2022 28 (1) 35-43 During July 2021, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) B.1.617.2 variant infections, including vaccine breakthrough infections, occurred after large public gatherings in Provincetown, Massachusetts, USA, prompting a multistate investigation. Public health departments identified primary and secondary cases by using coronavirus disease surveillance data, case investigations, and contact tracing. A primary case was defined as SARS-CoV-2 detected <14 days after travel to or residence in Provincetown during July 3-17. A secondary case was defined as SARS-CoV-2 detected <14 days after close contact with a person who had a primary case but without travel to or residence in Provincetown during July 3-August 10. We identified 1,098 primary cases and 30 secondary cases associated with 26 primary cases among fully and non-fully vaccinated persons. Large gatherings can have widespread effects on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, and fully vaccinated persons should take precautions, such as masking, to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly during substantial or high transmission. |
Improving same-day ART in Botswana: effects of a multifaceted national intervention
Montebatsi M , Lavoie MC , Blanco N , Marima R , Sebina K , Mangope J , Ntwayagae O , Whittington A , Letebele M , Lekone P , Hess KL , Thomas V , Ramaabya D , Ramotsababa M , Stafford KA , Ndwapi N . AIDS 2021 36 (4) 533-538 BACKGROUND: In 2019, the Botswana Ministry of Health and Wellness (MOHW) implemented an HIV national Reboot program, which was needed for refocusing and intensifying efforts for achieving epidemic control. The strategies deployed as part of Reboot were reviewed and evaluated for their effect on same-day and within-seven-days (fast-track initiation) antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation among adults newly identified with HIV. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of patients aged 18 years or older who were newly diagnosed with HIV from October 2018 to September 2019 across 41 health facilities. We used generalized linear mixed models, adjusting for clustering by facility, to assess the association of the Reboot with same-day or within-seven-days ART initiation (fast-track initiation). RESULTS: From October 2018 to January 2019, 28% (636/2,269) of newly diagnosed HIV patients were initiated the same day of diagnosis, and 56% (1,260/2,269) were initiated within seven days. Following the launch of Reboot (February to September 2019), 59% (2,092/3,553) were initiated the same day of diagnosis, and 77% (2,752/3,553) were initiated within seven days. Clients were 2.08 (aRR 95% CI 1.79-2.43) times more likely to be initiated the same day of diagnosis and 1.39 (aRR 95% CI 1.28-1.52) times more likely to be initiated within seven days than before Reboot after adjusting for sex and age. CONCLUSION: In Botswana, a multifaceted national intervention improved timely ART initiation. Identifying and implementing different client-centered strategies to facilitate ART initiation is critical to preventing AIDS-related complications and prevent ongoing transmission. |
A multicenter analytical performance evaluation of a multiplexed immunoarray for the simultaneous measurement of biomarkers of micronutrient deficiency, inflammation and malarial antigenemia
Brindle E , Lillis L , Barney R , Bansil P , Hess SY , Wessells KR , Ouédraogo CT , Arredondo F , Barker MK , Craft NE , Fischer C , Graham JL , Havel PJ , Karakochuk CD , Zhang M , Mussai EX , Mapango C , Randolph JM , Wander K , Pfeiffer CM , Murphy E , Boyle DS . PLoS One 2021 16 (11) e0259509 A lack of comparative data across laboratories is often a barrier to the uptake and adoption of new technologies. Furthermore, data generated by different immunoassay methods may be incomparable due to a lack of harmonization. In this multicenter study, we describe validation experiments conducted in a single lab and cross-lab comparisons of assay results to assess the performance characteristics of the Q-plex™ 7-plex Human Micronutrient Array (7-plex), an immunoassay that simultaneously quantifies seven biomarkers associated with micronutrient (MN) deficiencies, inflammation and malarial antigenemia using plasma or serum; alpha-1-acid glycoprotein, C-reactive protein, ferritin, histidine-rich protein 2, retinol binding protein 4, soluble transferrin receptor, and thyroglobulin. Validations included repeated testing (n = 20 separately prepared experiments on 10 assay plates) in a single lab to assess precision and linearity. Seven independent laboratories tested 76 identical heparin plasma samples collected from a cohort of pregnant women in Niger using the same 7-plex assay to assess differences in results across laboratories. In the analytical validation experiments, intra- and inter-assay coefficients of variation were acceptable at <6% and <15% respectively and assay linearity was 96% to 99% with the exception of ferritin, which had marginal performance in some tests. Cross-laboratory comparisons showed generally good agreement between laboratories in all analyte results for the panel of 76 plasma specimens, with Lin's concordance correlation coefficient values averaging ≥0.8 for all analytes. Excluding plates that would fail routine quality control (QC) standards, the inter-assay variation was acceptable for all analytes except sTfR, which had an average inter-assay coefficient of variation of ≥20%. This initial cross-laboratory study demonstrates that the 7-plex test protocol can be implemented by users with some experience in immunoassay methods, but familiarity with the multiplexed protocol was not essential. |
Lower cognitive scores among toddlers in birth cohorts with acute respiratory illnesses, fevers, and laboratory-confirmed influenza
Azziz-Baumgartner E , Gonzalez R , Davis W , Calvo A , Olson N , Grant L , Hess-Holtz M , Veguilla V , Rauda R , Kaydos-Daniels SC , Sosa N , Aedo Ruíz EI , Armero Guardado J , Porter R , Franco D , Pascale JM , Peacock G . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2021 16 (1) 101-112 BACKGROUND: We established cohorts to assess associations between viral influenza and cognitive development to inform the value proposition of vaccination. METHODS: From 2014 through 2017, we called women seeking care at four prenatal clinics in Panama and El Salvador to identify acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs). Within 2 weeks of childbirth, mothers were asked to enroll their neonates in the cognitive development study. Staff obtained nasopharyngeal swabs from children with febrile ARIs for real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR) detection of viral RNA. Toddlers were administered Bayley developmental tests at ages 12 and 18-24 months. We used multilevel linear regression to explore associations between Bayley scores, ARIs, fever, and laboratory-confirmed influenza, controlling for maternal respiratory or Zika illnesses, infant influenza vaccination, birth during influenza epidemics, and the number of children in households. RESULTS: We enrolled 1567 neonates of which 68% (n = 1062) underwent developmental testing once and 40% (n = 623) twice. Children with previous ARIs scored an average of 3 points lower on their cognitive scores than children without ARIs (p = 0.001). Children with previous fevers scored an average of 2.1 points lower on their cognitive scores than afebrile children (p = 0.02). In the second year, children with previous laboratory-confirmed influenza scored 4 points lower on their cognitive scores than children without influenza (p = 0.04, after controlling for first Bayley cognitive scores). CONCLUSIONS: ARIs and fever during infancy were associated with lower Bayley scores at 12 months, and laboratory-confirmed influenza was associated with lower cognitive scores at 24 months suggesting the potential value of vaccination to prevent non-respiratory complications of influenza. |
Long-term pollen trends and associations between pollen phenology and seasonal climate in Atlanta, Georgia (1992-2018)
Manangan A , Brown C , Saha S , Bell J , Hess J , Uejio C , Fineman S , Schramm P . Ann Allergy Asthma Immunol 2021 127 (4) 471-480 e4 BACKGROUND: Previous research has shown airborne pollen concentrations and phenology in allergenic plants are changing. Additionally, variations in seasonal climate are known to affect pollen phenology in trees, weeds, and grasses. OBJECTIVE: We investigated localized trends in pollen concentrations and pollen phenology over time, and the effect of seasonal climate variations. METHODS: We used daily pollen count concentrations from a National Allergy Bureau (NAB) pollen counting station located in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, U.S. for 13 allergenic taxa. To examine long-term trends over time, we developed linear regression models for six pollen measures. To examine the effect of seasonal climate on phenology, we developed regression models using seasonal climate measures as independent variables, and pollen measures as dependent variables. RESULTS: For several tree pollen taxa, pollen concentrations increased over time, including oak and juniper pollen. In multiple species, pollen seasons trended toward an earlier release throughout the 27-year period. Variations in seasonal climate did have an effect on pollen counts and the timing of pollen release but varied by taxa. Generally, warmer spring temperatures were associated with an earlier pollen release. Additionally, precipitation from the preceding fall and winter were associated with increased pollen concentration in the spring months. CONCLUSION: Allergenic pollen concentrations for several types of pollen are increasing and trending toward an earlier pollen release in Atlanta, GA. Warmer temperatures preceding the pollen season were associated with the earlier pollen release. |
Short term physician visits and medication prescriptions for allergic disease associated with seasonal tree, grass, and weed pollen exposure across the United States
Saha S , Vaidyanathan A , Lo F , Brown C , Hess JJ . Environ Health 2021 20 (1) 85 BACKGROUND: While year-round exposure to pollen is linked to a large burden of allergic diseases, location-specific risk information on pollen types and allergy outcomes are limited. We characterize the relationship between acute exposure to tree, grass and weed pollen taxa and two allergy outcomes (allergic rhinitis physician visit and prescription allergy medication fill) across 28 metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) in the United States. METHODS: We obtained daily pollen data from National Allergy Bureau (NAB) monitors at these 28 MSAs for 2008-2015. We revised the NAB guidelines to classify taxa-specific pollen severity each day. Daily information on allergic rhinitis and prescribed allergy medications for individuals with employer-based health insurance from the IBM MarketScan Research database for these MSAs. We combined the daily pollen and health data for each MSA into a longitudinal dataset. We conducted a MSA-specific conditional quasi-Poisson regression analysis to assess how different levels of pollen concentration impact the health outcomes, controlling for local air pollution, meteorology and Influenza-like illness (ILI). We used a random effects meta-analysis to produce an overall risk estimate for each pollen type and health outcome. RESULTS: The seasonal distribution of pollen taxa and associated health impacts varied across the MSAs. Relative risk of allergic rhinitis visits increased as concentrations increased for all pollen types; relative risk of medication fills increased for tree and weed pollen only. We observed an increase in health risk even on days with moderate levels of pollen concentration. 7-day average concentration of pollen had stronger association with the health outcomes compared to the same-day measure. Controlling for air pollution and ILI had little impact on effect estimates. CONCLUSION: This analysis expands the catalogue of associations between different pollen taxa and allergy-related outcomes across multiple MSAs. The effect estimates we present can be used to project the burden of allergic disease in specific locations in the future as well inform patients with allergies on impending pollen exposure. |
A systematic review of the effects of temperature and precipitation on pollen concentrations and season timing, and implications for human health
Schramm PJ , Brown CL , Saha S , Conlon KC , Manangan AP , Bell JE , Hess JJ . Int J Biometeorol 2021 65 (10) 1615-1628 Climate and weather directly impact plant phenology, affecting airborne pollen. The objective of this systematic review is to examine the impacts of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations and pollen season timing. Using PRISMA methodology, we reviewed literature that assessed whether there was a relationship between local temperature and precipitation and measured airborne pollen. The search strategy included terms related to pollen, trends or measurements, and season timing. For inclusion, studies must have conducted a correlation analysis of at least 5 years of airborne pollen data to local meteorological data and report quantitative results. Data from peer-reviewed articles were extracted on the correlations between seven pollen indicators (main pollen season start date, end date, peak date, and length, annual pollen integral, average daily pollen concentration, and peak pollen concentration), and two meteorological variables (temperature and precipitation). Ninety-three articles were included in the analysis out of 9,679 articles screened. Overall, warmer temperatures correlated with earlier and longer pollen seasons and higher pollen concentrations. Precipitation had varying effects on pollen concentration and pollen season timing indicators. Increased precipitation may have a short-term effect causing low pollen concentrations potentially due to "wash out" effect. Long-term effects of precipitation varied for trees and weeds and had a positive correlation with grass pollen levels. With increases in temperature due to climate change, pollen seasons for some taxa in some regions may start earlier, last longer, and be more intense, which may be associated with adverse health impacts, as pollen exposure has well-known health effects in sensitized individuals. |
Chemical Composition of JUUL Pods Collected From Students in California High Schools
Shamout M , Wang P , Wong F , Chen W , Kumagai K , Pérez JJ , Watson CH , Valentín-Blasini L , Tanz L , Herzig C , Oakley LP , Peak CM , Heinzerling A , Williams RJ , Hess C , Wang C , Planche S , Al-Shawaf M , Melstrom P , Marynak K , Tynan MA , Agaku IT , King BA . J Adolesc Health 2021 69 (2) 342-345 PURPOSE: To examine the chemical composition of JUUL pods collected from a convenience sample of 16 high schools in California to identify possible consumer modification or counterfeit use. METHODS: Using Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry, we quantitatively analyzed the nicotine, propylene glycol (PG), and vegetable glycerin (VG) in JUUL pods (n = 26) collected from California high schools and compared results to commercial 3% (n = 15) and 5% (n = 24) JUUL pods purchased online. RESULTS: Most of the collected JUUL pods (24/26 pods) had a nicotine concentration (43.3 mg/ml, 95% PI: 21.5-65.1) outside the prediction intervals (PI) of the 3% (33.5 mg/ml, 95% PI: 31.8-35.2) and 5% (55.0 mg/ml, 95% PI: 51.5-58.3) commercial JUUL pods. Most (73%) collected JUUL pods had VG concentrations (583.5 mg/ml, PI: 428.9-738.1) lower than the 3% (722.2 mg/ml, PI: 643.0-801.4) and 5% (710.5 mg/ml, PI: 653.1-767.8) commercial JUUL pods. CONCLUSIONS: Used JUUL products collected from high school students or found on school grounds were not chemically consistent with the manufacturer's stated formulations. |
Geographic range of recreational water-associated primary amebic meningoencephalitis, United States, 1978-2018
Gharpure R , Gleason M , Salah Z , Blackstock AJ , Hess-Homeier D , Yoder JS , Ali IKM , Collier SA , Cope JR . Emerg Infect Dis 2021 27 (1) 271-274 Naegleria fowleri is a free-living ameba that causes primary amebic meningoencephalitis (PAM), a rare but usually fatal disease. We analyzed trends in recreational water exposures associated with PAM cases reported during 1978-2018 in the United States. Although PAM incidence remained stable, the geographic range of exposure locations expanded northward. |
Human health and ocean pollution
Landrigan PJ , Stegeman JJ , Fleming LE , Allemand D , Anderson DM , Backer LC , Brucker-Davis F , Chevalier N , Corra L , Czerucka D , Bottein MD , Demeneix B , Depledge M , Deheyn DD , Dorman CJ , Fénichel P , Fisher S , Gaill F , Galgani F , Gaze WH , Giuliano L , Grandjean P , Hahn ME , Hamdoun A , Hess P , Judson B , Laborde A , McGlade J , Mu J , Mustapha A , Neira M , Noble RT , Pedrotti ML , Reddy C , Rocklöv J , Scharler UM , Shanmugam H , Taghian G , van de Water Jajm , Vezzulli L , Weihe P , Zeka A , Raps H , Rampal P . Ann Glob Health 2020 86 (1) 151 BACKGROUND: Pollution - unwanted waste released to air, water, and land by human activity - is the largest environmental cause of disease in the world today. It is responsible for an estimated nine million premature deaths per year, enormous economic losses, erosion of human capital, and degradation of ecosystems. Ocean pollution is an important, but insufficiently recognized and inadequately controlled component of global pollution. It poses serious threats to human health and well-being. The nature and magnitude of these impacts are only beginning to be understood. GOALS: (1) Broadly examine the known and potential impacts of ocean pollution on human health. (2) Inform policy makers, government leaders, international organizations, civil society, and the global public of these threats. (3) Propose priorities for interventions to control and prevent pollution of the seas and safeguard human health. METHODS: Topic-focused reviews that examine the effects of ocean pollution on human health, identify gaps in knowledge, project future trends, and offer evidence-based guidance for effective intervention. ENVIRONMENTAL FINDINGS: Pollution of the oceans is widespread, worsening, and in most countries poorly controlled. It is a complex mixture of toxic metals, plastics, manufactured chemicals, petroleum, urban and industrial wastes, pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceutical chemicals, agricultural runoff, and sewage. More than 80% arises from land-based sources. It reaches the oceans through rivers, runoff, atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. It is often heaviest near the coasts and most highly concentrated along the coasts of low- and middle-income countries. Plastic is a rapidly increasing and highly visible component of ocean pollution, and an estimated 10 million metric tons of plastic waste enter the seas each year. Mercury is the metal pollutant of greatest concern in the oceans; it is released from two main sources - coal combustion and small-scale gold mining. Global spread of industrialized agriculture with increasing use of chemical fertilizer leads to extension of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) to previously unaffected regions. Chemical pollutants are ubiquitous and contaminate seas and marine organisms from the high Arctic to the abyssal depths. ECOSYSTEM FINDINGS: Ocean pollution has multiple negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and these impacts are exacerbated by global climate change. Petroleum-based pollutants reduce photosynthesis in marine microorganisms that generate oxygen. Increasing absorption of carbon dioxide into the seas causes ocean acidification, which destroys coral reefs, impairs shellfish development, dissolves calcium-containing microorganisms at the base of the marine food web, and increases the toxicity of some pollutants. Plastic pollution threatens marine mammals, fish, and seabirds and accumulates in large mid-ocean gyres. It breaks down into microplastic and nanoplastic particles containing multiple manufactured chemicals that can enter the tissues of marine organisms, including species consumed by humans. Industrial releases, runoff, and sewage increase frequency and severity of HABs, bacterial pollution, and anti-microbial resistance. Pollution and sea surface warming are triggering poleward migration of dangerous pathogens such as the Vibrio species. Industrial discharges, pharmaceutical wastes, pesticides, and sewage contribute to global declines in fish stocks. HUMAN HEALTH FINDINGS: Methylmercury and PCBs are the ocean pollutants whose human health effects are best understood. Exposures of infants in utero to these pollutants through maternal consumption of contaminated seafood can damage developing brains, reduce IQ and increase children's risks for autism, ADHD and learning disorders. Adult exposures to methylmercury increase risks for cardiovascular disease and dementia. Manufactured chemicals - phthalates, bisphenol A, flame retardants, and perfluorinated chemicals, many of them released into the seas from plastic waste - can disrupt endocrine signaling, reduce male fertility, damage the nervous system, and increase risk of cancer. HABs produce potent toxins that accumulate in fish and shellfish. When ingested, these toxins can cause severe neurological impairment and rapid death. HAB toxins can also become airborne and cause respiratory disease. Pathogenic marine bacteria cause gastrointestinal diseases and deep wound infections. With climate change and increasing pollution, risk is high that Vibrio infections, including cholera, will increase in frequency and extend to new areas. All of the health impacts of ocean pollution fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations in the Global South - environmental injustice on a planetary scale. CONCLUSIONS: Ocean pollution is a global problem. It arises from multiple sources and crosses national boundaries. It is the consequence of reckless, shortsighted, and unsustainable exploitation of the earth's resources. It endangers marine ecosystems. It impedes the production of atmospheric oxygen. Its threats to human health are great and growing, but still incompletely understood. Its economic costs are only beginning to be counted.Ocean pollution can be prevented. Like all forms of pollution, ocean pollution can be controlled by deploying data-driven strategies based on law, policy, technology, and enforcement that target priority pollution sources. Many countries have used these tools to control air and water pollution and are now applying them to ocean pollution. Successes achieved to date demonstrate that broader control is feasible. Heavily polluted harbors have been cleaned, estuaries rejuvenated, and coral reefs restored.Prevention of ocean pollution creates many benefits. It boosts economies, increases tourism, helps restore fisheries, and improves human health and well-being. It advances the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). These benefits will last for centuries. RECOMMENDATIONS: World leaders who recognize the gravity of ocean pollution, acknowledge its growing dangers, engage civil society and the global public, and take bold, evidence-based action to stop pollution at source will be critical to preventing ocean pollution and safeguarding human health.Prevention of pollution from land-based sources is key. Eliminating coal combustion and banning all uses of mercury will reduce mercury pollution. Bans on single-use plastic and better management of plastic waste reduce plastic pollution. Bans on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have reduced pollution by PCBs and DDT. Control of industrial discharges, treatment of sewage, and reduced applications of fertilizers have mitigated coastal pollution and are reducing frequency of HABs. National, regional and international marine pollution control programs that are adequately funded and backed by strong enforcement have been shown to be effective. Robust monitoring is essential to track progress.Further interventions that hold great promise include wide-scale transition to renewable fuels; transition to a circular economy that creates little waste and focuses on equity rather than on endless growth; embracing the principles of green chemistry; and building scientific capacity in all countries.Designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) will safeguard critical ecosystems, protect vulnerable fish stocks, and enhance human health and well-being. Creation of MPAs is an important manifestation of national and international commitment to protecting the health of the seas. |
Notes from the field: Characteristics of e-cigarette, or vaping, products confiscated in public high schools in California and North Carolina - March and May 2019
Shamout M , Tanz L , Herzig C , Oakley LP , Peak CM , Heinzerling A , Hast M , McGowan E , Williams RJ , Hess C , Wang C , Planche S , Herndon S , Martin J , Kansagra SM , Al-Shawaf M , Melstrom P , Marynak K , Tynan MA , Agaku IT , King BA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2020 69 (42) 1552-1554 E-cigarette, or vaping, products are electronic devices that produce an inhalable aerosol by heating an e-liquid that typically contains nicotine and other additives (1). Nicotine is highly addictive, can harm adolescent brain development, and can prime the brain for addiction to other drugs (1). In 2019, 27.5% of U.S. high school students currently used e-cigarettes (2), and 73.4% of high school students had observed e-cigarette use on school grounds (3). E-cigarette use among U.S. youths increased considerably during 2017–2019 (2). This rise coincided with the increased popularity of “pod mods,” which are products with a prefilled or refillable pod cartridge (pod) and a modifiable (mod) system. Pod mods typically use nicotine salts rather than the freebase nicotine used in most other e-cigarette, or vaping, products and conventional tobacco products (e.g., cigarettes).* Nicotine salts, which have a lower pH than freebase nicotine, allow particularly high levels of nicotine to be inhaled more easily and with less irritation to the throat than freebase nicotine.† The most commonly sold pod mod brand is JUUL, which accounted for 75% of all U.S. e-cigarettes sales by the end of 2018.§ A majority (59.1%) of U.S. high school student e-cigarette users report JUUL is their usual brand (2). |
HIV prevalence among women who exchange sex for money or drugs - 4 U.S. cities
Nerlander LM , Handanagic S , Hess KL , Lutnick A , Agnew-Brune CB , Hoots BE , Braunstein SL , Glick SN , Higgins E , Padgett P , Schuette SM , Broz D , Ivy W3rd , Smith A , Thorson A , Paz-Bailey G . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2020 84 (4) 345-354 BACKGROUND: Limited data exist in the United States on the prevalence of HIV among women who exchange sex. SETTING: We estimate HIV prevalence of women who exchange sex from a 2016 survey in Chicago, Detroit, Houston, and Seattle and compare it with the prevalence of HIV among women of low socioeconomic status (SES), who did not exchange sex, and women in the general population. METHODS: Women who exchange sex were recruited via respondent-driven sampling among some cities participating in National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, interviewed, and offered HIV testing. We estimate HIV prevalence and, using prevalence ratios, compare it with the prevalence among women of low SES who did not exchange sex in the 2013 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance cycle, and to women in the general population estimated using 2015 National HIV Surveillance data. RESULTS: One thousand four hundred forty women reported exchange sex in 2016. Aggregated HIV prevalence was 4.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.7 to 7.1] among women who exchanged sex, 1.6% (95% CI: 0.3 to 2.8) among women of low SES who did not exchange sex, and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.5% to 0.6%) among women in the general population. HIV prevalence among women who exchanged sex was 3.1 times (95% CI: 1.6 to 5.9) as high as among women of low SES who did not exchange sex, and 8.8 times (95% CI: 7.0 to 11.1) as high as among women in the general population. CONCLUSION: HIV prevalence was significantly higher among women who exchanged sex compared with women in the general population and women of low SES who did not exchange sex. |
Fatal abrin poisoning by injection
Rinner GR , Watkins SA , Shirazi FM , Fernandez MC , Hess G , Mihalic J , Runcorn S , Waddell V , Ritter J , Reagan-Steiner S , Thomas J , Yip L , Walter FG . Clin Toxicol (Phila) 2020 59 (2) 1-3 Abrin is a toxin of public health concern due to its lethality, lack of antidote, and potential for use as a bioterrorism agent. Possible routes of exposure include ingestion, inhalation, and injection. Onset of symptoms is often delayed, even in severe cases. In fatal cases, death occurs from multi-organ failure. We describe the clinical course, laboratory, and pathologic findings in a case of fatal human poisoning associated with abrin injection. The Abrus precatorius seeds in this case were obtained via the internet. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Laboratory Response Network detected abrine in the urine confirming abrin exposure in this fatal poisoning. |
Receptive anal sex contributes substantially to heterosexually-acquired HIV infections among at-risk women in twenty US cities: results from a modelling analysis
Elmes J , Silhol R , Hess KL , Gedge LM , Nordsletten A , Staunton R , Anton P , Shacklett B , McGowan I , Dang Q , Adimora AA , Dimitrov DT , Aral S , Handanagic S , Paz-Bailey G , Boily MC . Am J Reprod Immunol 2020 84 (2) e13263 PROBLEM: Receptive anal intercourse (RAI) is more efficient than receptive vaginal intercourse (RVI) at transmitting HIV, but its contribution to heterosexually-acquired HIV infections among at-risk women in the US is unclear. METHOD OF STUDY: We analysed sexual behaviour data from surveys of 9,152 low-income heterosexual women living in 20 cities with high rates of HIV conducted in 2010 and 2013 as part of US National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. We estimated RAI prevalence (past-year RAI) and RAI fraction (fraction of all sex acts (RVI and RAI) at the last sexual episode that were RAI among those reporting past-year RAI) overall and by key demographic characteristics. These results and HIV incidence were used to calibrate a risk-equation model to estimate the population attributable fraction of new HIV infections due to RAI (PAFRAI ) accounting for uncertainty in parameter assumptions. RESULTS: RAI prevalence (overall: 32%, city range: 19-60%) and RAI fraction (overall: 27%, city-range: 18-34%) were high overall and across cities, and positively associated with exchange sex. RAI accounted for an estimated 41% (uncertainty range: 18-55%) of new infections overall (city range: 21-57%). Variability in PAFRAI estimates was most influenced by uncertainty in the estimate of the per-act increased risk of RAI relative to RVI and the number of sex acts. CONCLUSIONS: RAI may contribute disproportionately to new heterosexually-acquired HIV infections among at-risk low-income women in the US, meaning that tools to prevent HIV transmission during RAI are warranted. Number of RVI and RAI acts should also be collected to monitor heterosexually-acquired HIV infections. |
Adjusting plasma or serum zinc concentrations for inflammation: Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anemia (BRINDA) project
McDonald CM , Suchdev PS , Krebs NF , Hess SY , Wessells KR , Ismaily S , Rahman S , Wieringa FT , Williams AM , Brown KH , King JC . Am J Clin Nutr 2020 111 (4) 927-937 BACKGROUND: The accurate estimation of zinc deficiency at the population level is important, as it guides the design, targeting, and evaluation of nutrition interventions. Plasma or serum zinc concentration (PZC) is recommended to estimate zinc nutritional status; however, concentrations may decrease in the presence of inflammation. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the relation between PZC and inflammation in preschool children (PSC; 6-59 mo) and nonpregnant women of reproductive age (WRA; 15-49 y), and to compare different inflammation adjustment approaches, if adjustment is warranted. METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 13 nationally representative surveys (18,859 PSC, 22,695 WRA) from the Biomarkers Reflecting Inflammation and Nutritional Determinants of Anemia (BRINDA) project were analyzed. Correlation and decile analyses were conducted, and the following 3 adjustment methods were compared if a consistent negative association between PZC and C-reactive protein (CRP) or alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) was observed: 1) exclude individuals with CRP > 5 mg/L or AGP > 1 g/L; 2) apply arithmetic correction factors; and 3) use the BRINDA regression correction (RC) approach. RESULTS: In 6 of 12 PSC surveys, the estimated prevalence of zinc deficiency increased with increasing CRP deciles, and to a lesser extent, with increasing AGP deciles. In WRA, the association of PZC with CRP and AGP was weak and inconsistent. In the 6 PSC surveys in which adjustment methods were compared, application of RC reduced the estimated prevalence of zinc deficiency by a median of 11 (range: 4-18) percentage points, compared with the unadjusted prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: Relations between PZC and inflammatory markers were inconsistent, suggesting that correlation and decile analyses should be conducted before applying any inflammation adjustments. In populations of PSC that exhibit a significant negative association between PZC and CRP or AGP, application of the RC approach is supported. At this time, there is insufficient evidence to warrant inflammation adjustment in WRA. |
Microglial activation and responses to vasculature that result from an acute LPS exposure
Bowyer JF , Sarkar S , Burks SM , Hess JN , Tolani S , O'Callaghan JP , Hanig JP . Neurotoxicology 2020 77 181-192 Bacterial cell wall endotoxins, i.e. lipopolysaccharides (LPS), are some of the original compounds shown to evoke the classic signs of systemic inflammation/innate immune response and neuroinflammation. The term neuroinflammation often is used to infer the elaboration of proinflammatory mediators by microglia elicited by neuronal targeted activity. However, it also is possible that the microglia are responding to vasculature through several signaling mechanisms. Microglial activation relative to the vasculature in the hippocampus and parietal cortex was determined after an acute exposure of a single subcutaneous injection of 2 mg/kg LPS. Antibodies to allograft inflammatory factor (Aif1, a.k.a. Iba1) were used to track and quantify morphological changes in microglia. Immunostaining of platelet/endothelial cell adhesion molecule 1 (Pecam1, a.k.a. Cd31) was used to visualize vasculature in the forebrain and glial acidic fibrillary protein (GFAP) to visualize astrocytes. Neuroinflammation and other aspects of neurotoxicity were evaluated histologically at 3 h, 6 h, 12 h, 24 h, 3 d and 14 d following LPS exposure. LPS did not cause neurodegeneration as determined by Fluoro Jade C labeling. Also, there were no signs of mouse IgG leakage from brain vasculature due to LPS. Some changes in microglia size occurred at 6 h, but by 12 h microglial activation had begun with the combined soma and proximal processes size increasing significantly (1.5-fold). At 24 h, almost all the microglia soma and proximal processes in the hippocampus, parietal cortex, and thalamus were closely associated with the vasculature and had increased almost 2.0-fold in size. In many areas where microglia were juxtaposed to vasculature, astrocytic endfeet appeared to be displaced. The microglial activation had subsided slightly by 3 d with microglial size 1.6-fold that of control. We hypothesize that acute LPS activation can result in vascular mediated microglial responses through several mechanisms: 1) binding to Cd14 and Tlr4 receptors on microglia processes residing on vasculature; 2) damaging vasculature and causing the release of cytokines; and 3) possibly astrocytic endfeet damage resulting in cytokine release. These acute responses may serve as an adaptive mechanism to exposure to circulating LPS where the microglia surround the vasculature. This could further prevent the pathogen(s) circulating in blood from entering the brain. However, diverting microglial interactions away from synaptic remodeling and other types of microglial interactions with neurons may have adverse effects on neuronal function. |
Racial and ethnic disparities in sustained viral suppression and transmission risk potential among persons aged 13-29 years living with diagnosed HIV infection, United States, 2016
Crepaz N , Dong X , Hess KL , Bosh K . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2020 83 (4) 334-339 BACKGROUND: In 2016, persons aged 13-29 years represented 23.1% of the U.S. population, yet accounted for 41.7% of HIV diagnoses. Racial/ethnic minorities are disproportionally affected by HIV. Sustaining viral suppression helps persons living with diagnosed HIV infection (PLWDH) stay healthy and reduces the risk of transmitting HIV. We examined racial/ethnic disparities in sustained viral suppression and transmission risk potential among PLWDH aged 13-29 years. METHODS: We analyzed data from the National HIV Surveillance System reported through December 2018 from 42 jurisdictions with complete laboratory reporting. We included persons aged 13-29 years who received an HIV diagnosis by December 31, 2015, most recently resided in one of the 42 jurisdictions, and were alive at the end of 2016. Sustained viral suppression was defined as viral load <200 copies/mL for all tests in 2016. Transmission risk potential was estimated using the number of days with viral loads >1,500 copies/mL. RESULTS: Of the 90,812 PLWDH aged 13-29 years included in the analysis, 41.5% had sustained viral suppression in 2016. Across age, sex, and most transmission categories, blacks had the lowest prevalence of sustained viral suppression. Among the 28,154 who were in care but without sustained viral suppression, the average number of days with viral load >1,500 copies/mL was 206 days (56.4% of the 12-month period). CONCLUSION: Sustained viral suppression was suboptimal and transmission risk potential was high for PLWDH aged 13-29 years. Racial/ethnic disparities were apparent, calling for strengthening tailored interventions to improve care outcomes. |
Improving HIV surveillance data by using the ATra Black Box System to assist regional deduplication activities
Ocampo JMF , Hamp A , Rhodes A , Smart JC , Pemmaraju R , Poschman K , Hess KL , Bhattacharjee R , Flynn C , Anderson BJ , Dowling JE , Maccormack F , Doshi R , Lum G , Maddox L , Moncur B , Barnhart JE , Maxwell J , Aurand SB , Hogan V , Wills D , Prowell S , Kassaye SG , Karn HE , Laffoon BT , Collmann J . J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2019 82 Suppl 1 S13-s19 BACKGROUND: Focused attention on Data to Care underlines the importance of high-quality HIV surveillance data. This study identified the number of total duplicate and exact duplicate HIV case records in 9 separate Enhanced HIV/AIDS Reporting System (eHARS) databases reported by 8 jurisdictions and compared this approach to traditional Routine Interstate Duplicate Review resolution. METHODS: This study used the ATra Black Box System and 6 eHARS variables for matching case records across jurisdictions: last name, first name, date of birth, sex assigned at birth (birth sex), social security number, and race/ethnicity, plus 4 system-calculated values (first name Soundex, last name Soundex, partial date of birth, and partial social security number). RESULTS: In approximately 11 hours, this study matched 290,482 cases from 799,326 uploaded records, including 55,460 exact case pairs. Top case pair overlaps were between NYC and NYS (51%), DC and MD (10%), and FL and NYC (6%), followed closely by FL and NYS (4%), FL and NC (3%), DC and VA (3%), and MD and VA (3%). Jurisdictions estimated that they realized a combined 135 labor hours in time efficiency by using this approach compared with manual methods previously used for interstate duplication resolution. DISCUSSION: This approach discovered exact matches that were not previously identified. It also decreased time spent resolving duplicated case records across jurisdictions while improving accuracy and completeness of HIV surveillance data in support of public health program policies. Future uses of this approach should consider standardized protocols for postprocessing eHARS data. |
Development of a World Health Organization International Reference Panel for different genotypes of hepatitis E virus for nucleic acid amplification testing.
Baylis SA , Hanschmann KO , Matsubayashi K , Sakata H , Roque-Afonso AM , Kaiser M , Corman VM , Kamili S , Aggarwal R , Trehanpati N , Gartner T , Thomson EC , Davis CA , da Silva Filipe A , Abdelrahman TT , Blumel J , Terao E . J Clin Virol 2019 119 60-67 BACKGROUND: Globally, hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a major cause of acute viral hepatitis. Epidemiology and clinical presentation of hepatitis E vary greatly by location and are affected by the HEV genotype. Nucleic acid amplification technique (NAT)-based assays are important for the detection of acute HEV infection as well for monitoring chronic cases of hepatitis E. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to evaluate a panel of samples containing different genotypes of HEV for use in nucleic NAT-based assays. STUDY DESIGN: The panel of samples comprises eleven different members including HEV genotype 1a (2 strains), 1e, 2a, 3b, 3c, 3e, 3f, 4c, 4g as well as a human isolate related to rabbit HEV. Each laboratory assayed the panel members directly against the 1(st) World Health Organization (WHO) International Standard (IS) for HEV RNA (6329/10) which is based upon a genotype 3 a strain. RESULTS: The samples for evaluation were distributed to 24 laboratories from 14 different countries and assayed on three separate days. Of these, 23 participating laboratories returned a total of 32 sets of data; 17 from quantitative assays and 15 from qualitative assays. The assays used consisted of a mixture of in-house developed and commercially available assays. The results showed that all samples were detected consistently by the majority of participants, although in some cases, some samples were detected less efficiently. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the results of the collaborative study the panel (code number 8578/13) was established as the "1st International Reference Panel (IRP) for all HEV genotypes for NAT-based assays" by the WHO Expert Committee on Biological Standardization. This IRP will be important for assay validation and ensuring adequate detection of different genotypes and clinically important sub-genotypes of HEV. |
Assessment of extreme heat and hospitalizations to inform early warning systems
Vaidyanathan A , Saha S , Vicedo-Cabrera AM , Gasparrini A , Abdurehman N , Jordan R , Hawkins M , Hess J , Elixhauser A . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019 116 (12) 5420-5427 Heat early warning systems and action plans use temperature thresholds to trigger warnings and risk communication. In this study, we conduct multistate analyses, exploring associations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations, to inform the design and development of heat-health early warning systems. We used a two-stage analysis to estimate heat-health risk relationships between heat index and hospitalizations in 1,617 counties in the United States for 2003-2012. The first stage involved a county-level time series quasi-Poisson regression, using a distributed lag nonlinear model, to estimate heat-health associations. The second stage involved a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific exposure-response associations across larger geographic scales, such as by state or climate region. Using results from this two-stage analysis, we identified heat index ranges that correspond with significant heat-attributable burden. We then compared those with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service (NWS) heat alert criteria used during the same time period. Associations between heat index and cause-specific hospitalizations vary widely by geography and health outcome. Heat-attributable burden starts to occur at moderately hot heat index values, which in some regions are below the alert ranges used by the NWS during the study time period. Locally specific health evidence can beneficially inform and calibrate heat alert criteria. A synchronization of health findings with traditional weather forecasting efforts could be critical in the development of effective heat-health early warning systems. |
Expansion of telestroke services improves quality of care provided in super rural areas
Zhang D , Wang G , Zhu W , Thapa JR , Switzer JA , Hess DC , Smith ML , Ritchey MD . Health Aff (Millwood) 2018 37 (12) 2005-2013 Telestroke is a telemedicine intervention that facilitates communication between stroke centers and lower-resourced facilities to optimize acute stroke management. Using administrative claims data, we assessed trends in telestroke use among fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with acute ischemic stroke and the association between providing telestroke services and intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV tPA) and mechanical thrombectomy use, mortality, and medical expenditures, by urban versus rural county of residence in the period 2008-15. The proportion of ischemic stroke cases receiving telestroke increased from 0.4 to 3.8 per 1,000 cases, with usage highest among younger, male, non-Hispanic white, and patients in rural or super rural areas (super rural is the bottom quartile of rural areas. Compared with patients receiving usual care, those receiving telestroke had greater IV tPA and mechanical thrombectomy use regardless of county type, while those in super rural counties had lower thirty-day all-cause mortality. Despite increased telestroke use, rural patients remained less likely than urban patients to receive IV tPA. The findings suggest that telestroke service expansion efforts have increased, especially in rural and super rural counties, and have improved outcomes. |
Estimating national rates of HIV infection among men who have sex with men, persons who inject drugs and heterosexuals in the United States
Crepaz N , Hess KL , Purcell DW , Hall HI . AIDS 2018 33 (4) 701-708 BACKGROUND: Calculating national rates of HIV diagnosis, incidence, and prevalence can quantify disease burden and is important for planning and evaluating programs. We calculated HIV rates among men who have sex with men (MSM), persons who inject drugs (PWID), and heterosexuals in 2010 and 2015. METHODS: We used proportion estimates of the United States population classified as MSM, PWID, and heterosexuals along with census data to calculate the population sizes which were used as the denominators for calculating HIV rates. The numerators (HIV diagnosis, incidence, and prevalence) were based on data submitted to the National HIV Surveillance System through June 2017. RESULTS: The estimated HIV diagnosis and incidence rates in 2015 were 574.7 and 583.6 per 100,000 MSM; 34.3 and 32.7 per 100,000 PWID; and 4.1 and 3.8 per 100,000 heterosexuals. The estimated HIV prevalence in 2015 was 12,372.9 per 100,000 MSM; 1,937.2 per 100,000 PWID; and 126.7 per 100,000 heterosexuals. The HIV diagnosis rates decreased from 2010 to 2015 in all three transmission categories. Blacks had the highest HIV diagnosis rates at both time points. The HIV incidence rates decreased among white MSM, MSM aged 13-24 years, PWID overall, and male and female heterosexuals; however, it increased among MSM aged 25-34 years. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated HIV diagnosis and HIV infection rates decreased for several transmission categories as well as race/ethnicity and age subgroups. MSM continue to be disproportionately affected. Disparities remain and have widened for some groups. Efforts are needed to strengthen prevention, care, and supportive services for all persons with HIV infection. |
Development of Onchocerca volvulus in humanized NSG mice and detection of parasite biomarkers in urine and serum
Patton JB , Bennuru S , Eberhard ML , Hess JA , Torigian A , Lustigman S , Nutman TB , Abraham D . PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2018 12 (12) e0006977 BACKGROUND: The study of Onchocerca volvulus has been limited by its host range, with only humans and non-human primates shown to be susceptible to the full life cycle infection. Small animal models that support the development of adult parasites have not been identified. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We hypothesized that highly immunodeficient NSG mice would support the survival and maturation of O. volvulus and alteration of the host microenvironment through the addition of various human cells and tissues would further enhance the level of parasite maturation. NSG mice were humanized with: (1) umbilical cord derived CD34+ stem cells, (2) fetal derived liver, thymus and CD34+ stem cells or (3) primary human skeletal muscle cells. NSG and humanized NSG mice were infected with 100 O. volvulus infective larvae (L3) for 4 to 12 weeks. When necropsies of infected animals were performed, it was observed that parasites survived and developed throughout the infection time course. In each of the different humanized mouse models, worms matured from L3 to advanced fourth stage larvae, with both male and female organ development. In addition, worms increased in length by up to 4-fold. Serum and urine, collected from humanized mice for identification of potential biomarkers of infection, allowed for the identification of 10 O. volvulus-derived proteins found specifically in either the urine or the serum of the humanized O. volvulus-infected NSG mice. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The newly identified mouse models for onchocerciasis will enable the development of O. volvulus specific biomarkers, screening for new therapeutic approaches and potentially studying the human immune response to infection with O. volvulus. |
Heartland virus and hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis in immunocompromised patient, Missouri, USA
Carlson AL , Pastula DM , Lambert AJ , Staples JE , Muehlenbachs A , Turabelidze G , Eby CS , Keller J , Hess B , Buller RS , Storch GA , Byrnes K , Dehner L , Kirmani N , Kuhlmann FM . Emerg Infect Dis 2018 24 (5) 893-897 Heartland virus is a suspected tickborne pathogen in the United States. We describe a case of hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis, then death, in an immunosuppressed elderly man in Missouri, USA, who was infected with Heartland virus. |
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