The COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes and disruptions to healthcare seeking behavior. There are limited studies on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on healthcare seeking patterns in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), especially in settings with inequitable access to healthcare in rural and urban informal settlements. We investigated the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on reported healthcare seeking at health facilities and chemists using morbidity data from participants in an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance platform in Asembo in Siaya County, a rural setting in western Kenya and Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi County. We described healthcare seeking patterns before (from 1st January 2016 to 12th March 2020) and during the pandemic (from 13th March 2020 to 31st August 2022) by gender and age for any reported illness and select clinical syndromes using frequencies and percentages. We used a generalized estimating equation with an exchangeable correlation structure to assess the effect of the pandemic on healthcare seeking adjusting for gender and age. Overall, there was a 19% (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 0.81; 95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.79-0.83) decline in odds of seeking healthcare at health facilities for any illness in Asembo during the pandemic, and a 30% (aOR: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67-0.73) decline in Kibera. Similarly, there was a decline in seeking healthcare by clinical syndromes, e.g., for ARI, aOR: 0.76; 95% CI:0.73-0.79 in Asembo, and aOR: 0.68; 95% CI:0.64-0.72 in Kibera. The pandemic resulted in increased healthcare seeking at chemists (aOR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.20-1.27 in Asembo, and aOR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.35-1.46 in Kibera). This study highlights interruptions to healthcare seeking in resource-limited settings due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic resulted in a substantial decline in seeking care at health facilities, and an increase of the same at chemists.

Event-based surveillance (EBS) can be implemented in most settings for the detection of potential health threats by recognition and immediate reporting of predefined signals. Such a system complements existing case-based and sentinel surveillance systems. With the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Kenya Ministry of Health (MOH) modified and expanded an EBS system in both community and health facility settings for the reporting of COVID-19-related signals. Using an electronic reporting tool, m-Dharura, MOH recorded 8790 signals reported, with 3002 (34.2%) verified as events, across both community and health facility sites from March 2020 to June 2021. A subsequent evaluation found that the EBS system was flexible enough to incorporate the addition of COVID-19-related signals during a pandemic and maintain high rates of reporting from participants. Inadequate resources for follow-up investigations to reported events, lack of supportive supervision for some community health volunteers and lack of data system interoperability were identified as challenges to be addressed as the EBS system in Kenya continues to expand to additional jurisdictions.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has extensively spread in cities and rural communities, and studies are needed to quantify exposure in the population. We report seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two well-characterized populations in Kenya at two time points. These data inform the design and delivery of public health mitigation measures. METHODS: Leveraging on existing population based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) in two demographically diverse settings, a rural site in western Kenya in Asembo, Siaya County, and an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi County, we set up a longitudinal cohort of randomly selected households with serial sampling of all consenting household members in March and June/July 2021. Both sites included 1,794 and 1,638 participants in the March and June/July 2021, respectively. Individual seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was expressed as a percentage of the seropositive among the individuals tested, accounting for household clustering and weighted by the PBIDS age and sex distribution. RESULTS: Overall weighted individual seroprevalence increased from 56.2% (95%CI: 52.1, 60.2%) in March 2021 to 63.9% (95%CI: 59.5, 68.0%) in June 2021 in Kibera. For Asembo, the seroprevalence almost doubled from 26.0% (95%CI: 22.4, 30.0%) in March 2021 to 48.7% (95%CI: 44.3, 53.2%) in July 2021. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous by age and geography in these populations-higher seroprevalence was observed in the urban informal settlement (compared to the rural setting), and children aged <10 years had the lowest seroprevalence in both sites. Only 1.2% and 1.6% of the study participants reported receipt of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the second round of serosurvey-none by the first round. CONCLUSIONS: In these two populations, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased in the first 16 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. It is important to prioritize additional mitigation measures, such as vaccine distribution, in crowded and low socioeconomic settings.

Robust data on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in Africa are relatively scarce. Using data from two well-characterized populations in Kenya we aimed to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The mortality data arise from an ongoing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) platform, which has been operational since 2006 in rural western Kenya (Asembo, Siaya County) and an urban informal settlement (Kibera, Nairobi County), Kenya. PBIDS participants were regularly visited at home (2-3 times a year) by field workers who collected demographic data, including deaths. In addition, verbal autopsy (VA) interviews for all identified deaths are conducted. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates before and during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, and we compared associated mortality rates between the periods using incidence rate ratios. Excess deaths during the COVID-19 period were also estimated by modelling expected deaths in the absence of COVID-19 by applying a negative binomial regression model on historical mortality data from January 2016. Overall and monthly excess deaths were determined using the P-score metric. Spearman correlation was used to assess whether there is a relationship between the generated P-score and COVID-19 positivity rate. The all-cause mortality rate was higher during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period in Asembo [9.1 (95% CI, 8.2-10.0) vs. 7.8 (95% CI, 7.3-8.3) per 1000 person-years of observation, pyo]. In Kibera, the all-cause mortality rate was slightly lower during the COVID-19 period compared to the pre-COVID-19 period [2.6 (95% CI, 2.2-3.2 per 1000 pyo) vs. 3.1; 95% CI, 2.7-3.4 per 1000 pyo)]. An increase in all-cause mortality was observed (incidence rate ratio, IRR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.04-1.31) in Asembo, unlike in Kibera (IRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.71-1.09). The notable increase in mortality rate in Asembo was observed among persons aged 50 to 64 years (IRR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.95-3.52), persons aged 65 years and above (5.47; 95% CI, 4.60-6.50) and among females (IRR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.07-1.46). These age and gender differences were not observed in Kibera. We observed an increase in the mortality rate due to acute respiratory infection, including pneumonia (IRR, 1.45;95% CI, 1.03-2.04), and a reduction in the mortality rate due to pulmonary tuberculosis (IRR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.05-0.87) among older children and adults in Asembo. There was no statistically significant change in mortality rates due to leading specific causes of death in Kibera. Overall, during the COVID-19 period observed deaths were higher than expected deaths in Asembo (P-score = 6.0%) and lower than expected in Kibera (P-score = -22.3%).Using well-characterized populations in the two diverse geographic locations, we demonstrate a heterogenous impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates in Kenya. We observed more deaths than expected during the COVID-19 period in our rural site in western Kenya contrary to the urban site in Nairobi, the capital city in Kenya.

Antibodies are used to estimate prevalence of past infection. However, T cell responses against SARSCoV-2 may more accurately define prevalence because SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies wane. In November-December 2021, we studied serological and cellular immune responses in residents of rural Kenya who had not experienced any respiratory symptom nor had contact with COVID-19 cases. Among participants we detected anti-spike antibodies in 41.0% and T cell responses against >=2 SARSCoV-2 proteins in 82.5%, which implies that serosurveys underestimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in settings where asymptomatic infections prevail. Distinct from cellular immunity in European and Asian COVID-19 convalescents, strong T cell immunogenicity was observed against viral accessory proteins in these asymptomatic Africans, as well as a higher IL-10/IFN-gamma ratio cytokine profile, suggesting that environmental or genetic factors modulate pro-inflammatory responses. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Abstract We aimed to estimate the household secondary infection attack rate (hSAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in investigations aligned with the WHO Unity Studies Household Transmission Investigations (HHTI) protocol. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and medRxiv/bioRxiv for “Unity-aligned” First Few X cases (FFX) and HHTIs published 1 December 2019 to 26 July 2021. Standardised early results were shared by WHO Unity Studies collaborators (to 1 October 2021). We used a bespoke tool to assess investigation methodological quality. Values for hSAR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted or calculated from crude data. Heterogeneity was assessed by visually inspecting overlap of CIs on forest plots and quantified in meta-analyses. Of 9988 records retrieved, 80 articles (64 from databases; 16 provided by Unity Studies collaborators) were retained in the systematic review; 62 were included in the primary meta-analysis. hSAR point estimates ranged from 2% to 90% (95% prediction interval: 3%–71%; I2 = 99.7%); I2 values remained >99% in subgroup analyses, indicating high, unexplained heterogeneity and leading to a decision not to report pooled hSAR estimates. FFX and HHTI remain critical epidemiological tools for early and ongoing characterisation of novel infectious pathogens. The large, unexplained variance in hSAR estimates emphasises the need to further support standardisation in planning, conduct and analysis, and for clear and comprehensive reporting of FFX and HHTIs in time and place, to guide evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response efforts for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and future novel respiratory viruses.

We aimed to estimate the household secondary infection attack rate (hSAR) of SARS-CoV-2 in investigations aligned with the WHO Unity Studies Household Transmission Investigations (HHTI) protocol. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis according to PRISMA 2020 guidelines. We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, Scopus and medRxiv/bioRxiv for 'Unity-aligned' First Few X cases (FFX) and HHTIs published between 1 December 2019 and 26 July 2021. Standardised early results were shared by WHO Unity Studies collaborators (to 1 October 2021). We used a bespoke tool to assess investigation methodological quality. Values for hSAR and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were extracted or calculated from crude data. Heterogeneity was assessed by visually inspecting overlap of CIs on forest plots and quantified in meta-analyses. Of 9988 records retrieved, 80 articles (64 from databases; 16 provided by Unity Studies collaborators) were retained in the systematic review and 62 were included in the primary meta-analysis. hSAR point estimates ranged from 2%-90% (95% prediction interval: 3%-71%; I2=99.7%); I2 values remained >99% in subgroup analyses, indicating high, unexplained heterogeneity and leading to a decision not to report pooled hSAR estimates. FFX and HHTI remain critical epidemiological tools for early and ongoing characterisation of novel infectious pathogens. The large, unexplained variance in hSAR estimates emphasises the need to further support standardisation in planning, conduct and analysis, and for clear and comprehensive reporting of FFX and HHTIs in time and place, to guide evidence-based pandemic preparedness and response efforts for SARS-CoV-2, influenza and future novel respiratory viruses. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 infection in Africa has been characterized by less severe disease than elsewhere but the profile of SARS-CoV-2 specific adaptive immunity in this largely asymptomatic spread has not been studied. METHODS: We collected blood and nasopharyngeal samples from rural Kenyans (n=80) without respiratory symptoms since 2019, had no contact with COVID-19 cases or received COVID-19 vaccines and were negative for current SARS-CoV-2 infection. We analyzed spike-specific antibodies and T cells specific for SARS-CoV-2 structural (membrane, nucleocapsid and spike) and accessory (ORF3a, ORF7, ORF8) proteins. Pre-pandemic samples collected in urban Nairobi, Kenya (n=13) between 2015-2016 and samples of mild-moderately symptomatic COVID-19 convalescents (n=36) living in the urban environment of Singapore were also studied. RESULTS: Among asymptomatic Kenyans, we detected anti-spike antibodies in 41.0% and T cell responses against ≥2 SARS-CoV-2 proteins in 82.5%. The pre-pandemic samples from Nairobi had low-level, monospecific responses. Furthermore, distinct from cellular immunity in European and Asian COVID-19 convalescents, strong T cell immunogenicity was observed against viral accessory proteins (ORF3a, ORF8) and not structural proteins, as well as a higher IL-10/IFN-γ ratio cytokine profile. CONCLUSIONS: The high incidence of T cell responses against different SARS-CoV-2 proteins in largely seronegative participants suggests that serosurveys underestimate SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in settings where asymptomatic infections prevail. Similar observations have been made with other coronavirus infections such as MERS and SARS-CoV-1. The functional and antigen-specific profile of SARS-CoV-2 specific T cells in these African individuals suggests that genetic or environmental factors play a role in the development of protective antiviral immunity. FUNDINGS: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Global Health Protection; the Singapore Ministry of Health's National Medical Research Council.

Introduction: Urban informal settlements may be disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic due to overcrowding and other socioeconomic challenges that make adoption and implementation of public health mitigation measures difficult. We conducted a seroprevalence survey in the Kibera informal settlement, Nairobi, Kenya, to determine the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: Members of randomly selected households from an existing population-based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) provided blood specimens between 27 (th) November and 5 (th) December 2020. The specimens were tested for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. Seroprevalence estimates were weighted by age and sex distribution of the PBIDS population and accounted for household clustering. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for individual seropositivity.   Results: Consent was obtained from 523 individuals in 175 households, yielding 511 serum specimens that were tested. The overall weighted seroprevalence was 43.3% (95% CI, 37.4 - 49.5%) and did not vary by sex. Of the sampled households, 122(69.7%) had at least one seropositive individual. The individual seroprevalence increased by age from 7.6% (95% CI, 2.4 - 21.3%) among children (<5 years), 32.7% (95% CI, 22.9 - 44.4%) among children 5 - 9 years, 41.8% (95% CI, 33.0 - 51.1%) for those 10-19 years, and 54.9%(46.2 - 63.3%) for adults (≥20 years). Relative to those from medium-sized households (3 and 4 individuals), participants from large (≥5 persons) households had significantly increased odds of being seropositive, aOR, 1.98(95% CI, 1.17 - 1.58), while those from small-sized households (≤2 individuals) had increased odds but not statistically significant, aOR, 2.31 (95% CI, 0.93 - 5.74).  Conclusion: In densely populated urban settings, close to half of the individuals had an infection to SARS-CoV-2 after eight months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. This highlights the importance to prioritize mitigation measures, including COVID-19 vaccine distribution, in the crowded, low socioeconomic settings.

The World Health Organization advocates a multimodal approach to improving infection prevention and control (IPC) measures, which Kenya adopted in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The Kenya Ministry of Health formed a national IPC committee for policy and technical leadership, coordination, communication, and training. During March-November 2020, a total of 69,892 of 121,500 (57.5%) healthcare workers were trained on IPC. Facility readiness assessments were conducted in 777 health facilities using a standard tool assessing 16 domains. A mean score was calculated for each domain across all facilities. Only 3 domains met the minimum threshold of 80%. The Ministry of Health maintained a national list of all laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections. By December 2020, a total of 3,039 healthcare workers were confirmed to be SARS-CoV-2-positive, an infection rate (56/100,000 workers) 12 times higher than in the general population. Facility assessments and healthcare workers' infection data provided information to guide IPC improvements.

Existing acute febrile illness (AFI) surveillance systems can be leveraged to identify and characterize emerging pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated with ministries of health and implementing partners in Belize, Ethiopia, Kenya, Liberia, and Peru to adapt AFI surveillance systems to generate COVID-19 response information. Staff at sentinel sites collected epidemiologic data from persons meeting AFI criteria and specimens for SARS-CoV-2 testing. A total of 5,501 patients with AFI were enrolled during March 2020-October 2021; >69% underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing. Percentage positivity for SARS-CoV-2 ranged from 4% (87/2,151, Kenya) to 19% (22/115, Ethiopia). We show SARS-CoV-2 testing was successfully integrated into AFI surveillance in 5 low- to middle-income countries to detect COVID-19 within AFI care-seeking populations. AFI surveillance systems can be used to build capacity to detect and respond to both emerging and endemic infectious disease threats.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely diagnosis is essential in limiting the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The reference standard, rRT-PCR, requires specialized laboratories, costly reagents, and a long turnaround time. Antigen RDTs provide a feasible alternative to rRT-PCR since they are quick, relatively inexpensive, and do not require a laboratory. The WHO requires that Ag RDTs have a sensitivity ≥80% and specificity ≥97%. METHODS: This evaluation was conducted at 11 health facilities in Kenya between March and July 2021. We enrolled persons of any age with respiratory symptoms and asymptomatic contacts of confirmed COVID-19 cases. We collected demographic and clinical information and two nasopharyngeal specimens from each participant for Ag RDT testing and rRT-PCR. We calculated the diagnostic performance of the Panbio™ Ag RDT against the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) rRT-PCR test. RESULTS: We evaluated the Ag RDT in 2,245 individuals where 551 (24.5%, 95% CI: 22.8-26.3%) tested positive by rRT-PCR. Overall sensitivity of the Ag RDT was 46.6% (95% CI: 42.4-50.9%), specificity 98.5% (95% CI: 97.8-99.0%), PPV 90.8% (95% CI: 86.8-93.9%) and NPV 85.0% (95% CI: 83.4-86.6%). Among symptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 60.6% (95% CI: 54.3-66.7%) and specificity was 98.1% (95% CI: 96.7-99.0%). Among asymptomatic individuals, sensitivity was 34.7% (95% CI 29.3-40.4%) and specificity was 98.7% (95% CI: 97.8-99.3%). In persons with onset of symptoms <5 days (594/876, 67.8%), sensitivity was 67.1% (95% CI: 59.2-74.3%), and 53.3% (95% CI: 40.0-66.3%) among those with onset of symptoms >7 days (157/876, 17.9%). The highest sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI: 80.9-91.8%) in symptomatic individuals with cycle threshold (Ct) values ≤30. CONCLUSION: The overall sensitivity and NPV of the Panbio™ Ag RDT were much lower than expected. The specificity of the Ag RDT was high and satisfactory; therefore, a positive result may not require confirmation by rRT-PCR. The kit may be useful as a rapid screening tool only for symptomatic patients in high-risk settings with limited access to rRT-PCR. A negative result should be interpreted based on clinical and epidemiological information and may require retesting by rRT-PCR.

Kenya's Ministry of Health (MOH) and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Kenya (CDC Kenya) have maintained a 40-year partnership during which measures were implemented to prevent, detect, and respond to disease threats. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the MOH and CDC Kenya rapidly responded to mitigate disease impact on Kenya's 52 million residents. We describe activities undertaken jointly by the MOH and CDC Kenya that lessened the effects of COVID-19 during 5 epidemic waves from March through December 2021. Activities included establishing national and county-level emergency operations centers and implementing workforce development and deployment, infection prevention and control training, laboratory diagnostic advancement, enhanced surveillance, and information management. The COVID-19 pandemic provided fresh impetus for the government of Kenya to establish a national public health institute, launched in January 2022, to consolidate its public health activities and counter COVID-19 and future infectious, vaccine-preventable, and emerging zoonotic diseases.

Continuity of key water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) infrastructure and WASH practices-for example, hand hygiene-are among several critical community preventive and mitigation measures to reduce transmission of infectious diseases, including COVID-19 and other respiratory diseases. WASH guidance for COVID-19 prevention may combine existing WASH standards and new COVID-19 guidance. Many existing WASH tools can also be modified for targeted WASH assessments during the COVID-19 pandemic. We partnered with local organizations to develop and deploy tools to assess WASH conditions and practices and subsequently implement, monitor, and evaluate WASH interventions to mitigate COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa, focusing on healthcare, community institution, and household settings and hand hygiene specifically. Employing mixed-methods assessments, we observed gaps in access to hand hygiene materials specifically despite most of those settings having access to improved, often onsite, water supplies. Across countries, adherence to hand hygiene among healthcare providers was about twice as high after patient contact compared to before patient contact. Poor or non-existent management of handwashing stations and alcohol-based hand rub (ABHR) was common, especially in community institutions. Markets and points of entry (internal or external border crossings) represent congregation spaces, critical for COVID-19 mitigation, where globally-recognized WASH standards are needed. Development, evaluation, deployment, and refinement of new and existing standards can help ensure WASH aspects of community mitigation efforts that remain accessible and functional to enable inclusive preventive behaviors.

We investigated the first 152 laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases (125 primary and 27 secondary) and their 248 close contacts in Kisumu County, Kenya. Conducted June 10–October 8, 2020, this study included interviews and sample collection at enrolment and 14–21 days later. Median age was 35 years (IQR 28–44); 69.0% reported COVID-19 related symptoms, most commonly cough (60.0%), headache (55.2%), fever (53.3%) and loss of taste or smell (43.8%). One in five were hospitalized, 34.4% >25 years of age had at least one comorbidity, and all deaths had comorbidities. Adults ≥25 years with a comorbidity were 3.15 (95% CI 1.37–7.26) times more likely to have been hospitalized or died than participants without a comorbidity. Infectious comorbidities included HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria, but no current cases of influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, dengue fever, leptospirosis or chikungunya were identified. Thirteen (10.4%) of the 125 primary infections transmitted COVID-19 to 27 close contacts, 158 (63.7%) of whom resided or worked within the same household. Thirty-one percent (4 of 13) of those who transmitted COVID-19 to secondary cases were health care workers; no known secondary transmissions occurred between health care workers. This rapid assessment early in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic identified some context-specific characteristics which conflicted with the national line-listing of cases, and which have been substantiated in the year since. These included over two-thirds of cases reporting the development of symptoms during the two weeks after diagnosis, compared to the 7% of cases reported nationally; over half of cases reporting headaches, and nearly half of all cases reporting loss of taste and smell, none of which were reported at the time by the World Health Organization to be common symptoms. This study highlights the importance of rapid in-depth assessments of outbreaks in understanding the local epidemiology and response measures required.

The majority of Kenya's &gt; 3 million camels have antibodies against Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), although human infection in Africa is rare. We enrolled 243 camels aged 0-24 months from 33 homesteads in Northern Kenya and followed them between April 2018 to March 2020. We collected and tested camel nasal swabs for MERS-CoV RNA by RT-PCR followed by virus isolation and whole genome sequencing of positive samples. We also documented illnesses (respiratory or other) among the camels. Human camel handlers were also swabbed, screened for respiratory signs, and samples were tested for MERS-CoV by RT-PCR. We recorded 68 illnesses among 58 camels, of which 76.5% (52/68) were respiratory signs and the majority of illnesses (73.5% or 50/68) were recorded in 2019. Overall, 124/4692 (2.6%) camel swabs collected from 83 (34.2%) calves in 15 (45.5%) homesteads between April-September 2019 screened positive, while 22 calves (26.5%) recorded reinfections (second positive swab following ≥ 2 consecutive negative tests). Sequencing revealed a distinct Clade C2 virus that lacked the signature ORF4b deletions of other Clade C viruses. Three previously reported human PCR positive cases clustered with the camel infections in time and place, strongly suggesting sporadic transmission to humans during intense camel outbreaks in Northern Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The lower-than-expected COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Africa has been attributed to multiple factors, including weak surveillance. We estimated the burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections eight months into the epidemic in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a population-based cross-sectional survey using multi-stage random sampling to select households within Nairobi in November 2020. Sera from consenting household members were tested for antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. Seroprevalence was estimated after adjusting for population structure and test performance. Infection fatality ratios (IFRs) were calculated by comparing study estimates to reported cases and deaths. RESULTS: Among 1,164 individuals, the adjusted seroprevalence was 34.7% (95%CI 31.8-37.6). Half the enrolled households had at least one positive participant. Seropositivity increased in more densely populated areas (spearman's r=0.63; p=0.009). Individuals aged 20-59 years had at least 2-fold higher seropositivity than those aged 0-9 years. The IFR was 40 per 100,000 infections, with individuals ≥60 years old having higher IFRs. CONCLUSION: Over one-third of Nairobi residents had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 by November 2020, indicating extensive transmission. However, the IFR was >10-fold lower than that reported in Europe and the United States, supporting the perceived lower morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

OBJECTIVE: We present findings from the nationally representative Zimbabwe Population-based HIV Impact Assessment (ZIMPHIA) that characterize Zimbabwe's progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets. DESIGN: We conducted a cross-sectional household survey. METHODS: Consenting adults and children in the household were eligible to participate in ZIMPHIA (October 2015-August 2016). Participants completed face-to-face interviews and provided blood for HIV, CD4, viral load, and syphilis testing. VLS was defined as HIV RNA <1,000 copies/mL. HIV-positive specimens were tested for the presence of selected antiretroviral drugs. Data were weighted. Analysis was restricted to HIV-positive adults aged 15-64 years. RESULTS: We enrolled 11,098 men and 14,033 women aged 15-64 years. HIV prevalence was 14.1%. Of those living with HIV, 76.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.9-78.7) were aware of their HIV status or had detectable antiretroviral levels. Of these, 88.4% (95% CI: 87.1-89.7) were receiving ART, and of these people, 85.3% (95% CI: 83.4-87.1) had VLS. Male sex age 15-34 years and having one or more sexual partners were associated with being unaware of one's HIV-positive status. Age <50 years and not taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being less likely to be being both aware and taking ART. Male sex, age <50 years, and taking cotrimoxazole were associated with being on ART but not having VLS. CONCLUSIONS: Zimbabwe has made great strides toward epidemic control. Focusing resources on case finding, particularly among men, people aged<35 years, and sexually active individuals can help Zimbabwe attain 90-90-90 targets.

BACKGROUND: The population-based HIV impact assessment (population-based HIV impact assessments) surveys are among the first to estimate national adult HIV incidence, subnational prevalence of viral load suppression, and pediatric HIV prevalence. We summarize the survey methods implemented in Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia, as well as response rates and quality metrics. METHODS: Each cross-sectional, household-based survey used a 2-stage cluster design. Survey preparations included sample design, questionnaire development, tablet programming for informed consent and data collection, community mobilization, establishing a network of satellite laboratories, and fieldworker training. Interviewers collected demographic, behavioral, and clinical information using tablets. Blood was collected for home-based HIV testing and counseling (HBTC) and point-of-care CD4+ T-cell enumeration with results immediately returned. HIV-positive blood samples underwent laboratory-based confirmatory testing, HIV incidence testing, RNA polymerase chain reaction (viral load), DNA polymerase chain reaction (early infant diagnosis), and serum antiretroviral drug detection. Data were weighted for survey design, and chi square automatic interaction detection-based methods were used to adjust for nonresponse. RESULTS: Each survey recruited a nationally representative, household-based sample of children and adults over a 6-10-month period in 2015 and 2016. Most (84%-90%) of the 12,000-14,000 eligible households in each country participated in the survey, with 77%-81% of eligible adults completing an interview and providing blood for HIV testing. Among eligible children, 59%-73% completed HIV testing. Across the 3 surveys, 97.8% of interview data were complete and had no errors. CONCLUSION: Conducting a national population-based HIV impact assessment with immediate return of HIV and other point-of-care test results was feasible, and data quality was high.

BACKGROUND: Zimbabwe conducted a Population-Based HIV Impact Assessment (ZIMPHIA) cross-sectional survey, October 2015 and August 2016 to determine progress toward epidemic control. METHODS: Of 25,131 eligible adults 15-64 years, 20,577 (81.8%) consented to face-to-face questionnaire and biomarker testing in this nationally representative household survey. Home-based rapid HIV testing was performed using Determine, First Response and Stat-Pak as the tie-breaker. HIV-positive tests were confirmed in a laboratory using Geenius HIV-1/2, viral load (VL) was measured using Roche TaqMan and BioMerieux NucliSENS. Recency of infection was tested using Sedia HIV-1 Limiting Antigen-Avidity (LAg). Presence of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs was detected using HPLC/MS. The recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) included LAg-Avidity Enzyme-immuno-assay (EIA (normalised-optical density (ODn<=1.5), viral load>/=1000 copies/mL, and absence of antiretroviral drugs. Weighted annual HIV incidence was compared to UNAIDS Spectrum models estimates. RESULTS: Overall, 26 of 2,901 HIV-seropositive individuals had a recent infection (men, 8; women, 18). Overall weighted annual incidence among persons 15-64 years was 0.42% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25-0.59) and 0.44% (95% CI: 0.25-0.62) for 15-49 years, similar to 2016 Spectrum model estimate (0.54%; 95% CI: 0.49-0.66) for this age group. Among persons aged 15-49 years, HIV prevalence was 13.35 % (95% CI: 12.71-14.02), estimated HIV-positive individuals were 968,951 (95% CI: 911,473-1,026,430), of these, 41,911 (95% CI: 37,412-44,787) were annual-new infections and this was similar to 2016 Spectrum estimates. CONCLUSION: The observed HIV incidence in ZIMPHIA 2015/16 validated the 2016 Spectrum estimates and Zimbabwe's progress toward epidemic control.

BACKGROUND: National-level population size estimates (PSEs) for hidden populations are required for HIV programming and modelling. Various estimation methods are available at the site-level, but it remains unclear which are optimal and how best to obtain national-level estimates. SETTING: Zimbabwe METHODS:: Using 2015-2017 data from respondent-driven sampling surveys (RDS) among female sex workers (FSW) aged 18+ years, mappings, and programme records, we calculated PSEs for each of 20 sites across Zimbabwe, using up to three methods per site (service and unique object multipliers, census, and capture-recapture). We compared estimates from different methods, and calculated site medians. We estimated prevalence of sex work at each site using census data available on the number of 15-49 year-old women, generated a list of all 'hotspot' sites for sex work nationally, and matched sites into strata in which the prevalence of sex work from sites with PSEs was applied to those without. Directly and indirectly estimated PSEs for all hotspot sites were summed to provide a national-level PSE, incorporating an adjustment accounting for sex work outside hotspots. RESULTS: Median site PSEs ranged from 12,863 in Harare to 247 in a rural growth-point. Multiplier methods produced the highest PSEs. We identified 55 hotspots estimated to include 95% of all FSW. FSW nationally were estimated to number 40,491, 1.23% of women aged 15-49 years, (plausibility bounds 28,177-58,797, 0.86-1.79%, those under 18 considered sexually exploited minors). CONCLUSION: There are large numbers of FSW estimated in Zimbabwe. Uncertainty in population size estimation should be reflected in policy-making.

Importance: In Africa, the persistently high HIV incidence rate among young women is the major obstacle to achieving the goal of epidemic control. Objective: To determine trends in coverage of HIV prevention and treatment programs and HIV incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study consisted of 2 sequential, community-based longitudinal studies performed in the Vulindlela and Greater Edendale area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Participants enrolled from June 11, 2014, to June 22, 2015 (2014 survey), with a single follow-up visit from June 24, 2016, to April 3, 2017 (2016 cohort), or enrolled from July 8, 2015, to June 7, 2016 (2015 survey), with a single follow-up visit from November 7, 2016, to August 30, 2017 (2017 cohort). Men and women aged 15 to 49 years were enrolled in the 2014 and 2015 surveys, and HIV-seronegative participants aged 15 to 35 years were followed up in the 2016 and 2017 cohorts. Analysis was conducted from January 1 through December 31, 2018. Exposures: HIV prevention and treatment programs in a real-world, nontrial setting. Main Outcomes and Measures: Trends in sex- and age-specific HIV incidence rates, condom use, voluntary medical male circumcision, knowledge of HIV-seropositive status, uptake of antiretroviral therapy, and viral suppression. Results: A total of 9812 participants (6265 women [63.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 11 289 households were enrolled in the 2014 survey, and 10 236 participants (6341 women [61.9%]; median age, 27 years [interquartile range, 20-36 years]) from 12 247 households were enrolled in the 2015 survey. Of these, 3536 of 4539 (annual retention rate of 86.7%) completed follow-up in the 2016 cohort, and 3907 of 5307 (annual retention rate of 81.4%) completed follow-up in the 2017 cohort. From 2014 to 2015, condom use with last sex partner decreased by 10% from 24.0% (n = 644 of 3547) to 21.6% (n = 728 of 3895; P = .12) in men and by 17% from 19.6% (n = 1039 of 6265) to 16.2% (n = 871 of 6341; P = .002) in women. Voluntary medical male circumcision increased by 13% from 31.9% (1102 of 3547) to 36.1% (n = 1472 of 3895); P = .007) in men, and the proportion of women reporting that their partner was circumcised increased by 35% from 35.7% (n = 1695 of 4766) to 48.2% (n = 2519 of 5207; P < .001). Knowledge of HIV-seropositive status increased by 21% from 51.8% (n = 504 of 3547) to 62.9% (n = 570 of 3895; P < .001) in men and by 14% from 64.6% (n = 1833 of 6265) to 73.4% (n = 2182 of 6341; P < .001) in women. Use of antiretroviral therapy increased by 32% from 36.7% (n = 341 of 3547) to 48.6% (n = 432 of 3895; P < .001) in men and by 29% from 45.6% (n = 1251 of 6265) to 58.8% (n = 1743 of 6341; P < .001) in women; HIV viral suppression increased by 20% from 41.9% (n = 401 of 3547) to 50.3% (n = 456 of 3895; P = .005) in men and by 13% from 54.8% (n = 1547 of 6265) to 61.9% (n = 1828 of 6341; P < .001) in women. Incidence of HIV declined in women aged 15 to 19 years from 4.63 (95% CI, 3.29-6.52) to 2.74 (95% CI, 1.84-4.09) per 100 person-years (P = .04) but declined marginally or remained unchanged among men and women in other age groups. Conclusions and Relevance: This study showed a significant decline in HIV incidence in young women; however, to further reduce HIV incidence, HIV prevention and treatment program coverage must be intensified and scaled up.

In 2017, the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimated that worldwide, 36.9 million persons were living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, the virus infection that causes acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Among persons with HIV infection, approximately 75% were aware of their HIV status, leaving 9.4 million persons with undiagnosed infection (1). Index testing, also known as partner notification or contact tracing, is an effective case-finding strategy that targets the exposed contacts of HIV-positive persons for HIV testing services. This report summarizes data from HIV tests using index testing in 20 countries supported by CDC through the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) during October 1, 2016-March 31, 2018. During this 18-month period, 1,700,998 HIV tests with 99,201 (5.8%) positive results were reported using index testing. The positivity rate for index testing was 9.8% among persons aged >/=15 years and 1.5% among persons aged <15 years. During the reporting period, HIV positivity increased 64% among persons aged >/=15 years (from 7.6% to 12.5%) and 67% among persons aged <15 years (from 1.2% to 2.0%). Expanding index testing services could help increase the number of persons with HIV infection who know their status, are initiated onto antiretroviral treatment, and consequently reduce the number of persons who can transmit the virus.

BACKGROUND: Despite increased support for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) to reduce HIV incidence, current VMMC progress falls short. Slow progress in VMMC expansion may be partially attributed to emphasis on vertical (stand-alone) over more integrated implementation models that are more responsive to local needs. In 2013, the ZAZIC consortium began implementation of a 5-year, integrated VMMC program jointly with Ministry of Health and Child Care (MoHCC) in Zimbabwe. OBJECTIVE: To explore ZAZIC's approach emphasizing existing healthcare workers and infrastructure, increasing program sustainability and resilience. METHODS: A process evaluation utilizing routine quantitative data. Interviews with key MoHCC informants illuminate program strengths and weaknesses. METHODS: A process evaluation utilizing routine quantitative data. Interviews with key MoHCC informants illuminate program strengths and weaknesses. RESULTS: In start-up and year 1 (March 2013-September, 2014), ZAZIC expanded from two to 36 static VMMC sites and conducted 46,011 VMMCs; 39,840 completed from October 2013 to September 2014. From October 2014 to September 2015, 44,868 VMMCs demonstrated 13% increased productivity. In October, 2015, ZAZIC was required by its donor to consolidate service provision from 21 to 10 districts over a 3-month period. Despite this shock, 57,282 VMMCs were completed from October 2015 to September 2016 followed by 44,414 VMMCs in only 6 months, from October 2016 to March 2017. Overall, ZAZIC performed 192,575 VMMCs from March 2013 to March, 2017. The vast majority of VMMCs were completed safely by MoHCC staff with a reported moderate and severe adverse event rate of 0.3%. CONCLUSION: The safety, flexibility, and pace of scale-up associated with the integrated VMMC model appears similar to vertical delivery with potential benefits of capacity building, sustainability and health system strengthening. These models also appear more adaptable to local contexts. Although more complicated than traditional approaches to program implementation, attention should be given to this country-led approach for its potential to spur positive health system changes, including building local ownership, capacity, and infrastructure for future public health programming.

METHODS: We aimed to determine if the adverse event (AE) rate was non-inferior to an AE rate of 2%, a rate considered the global standard of MC safety. Study procedures, AE definitions, and study staff were unchanged from previous PrePex Zimbabwe trials. After PrePex placement and removal, weekly visits assessed wound healing. Men returned on Day 90. Safety was defined as occurrence of moderate and serious clinical AEs. Efficacy was defined as ability to reach the endpoint of complete circumcision. RESULTS: Among 400 healthy, HIV-positive, consenting adults, median age was 40 years (IQR: 34, 46); 79.5% in WHO stage 2; median CD4 was 336.5c/mul (IQR: 232, 459); 337 (85%) on anti-retroviral therapy. Among 385 (96%) observed completely healed, median days to complete healing was 42 (IQR: 35-49). There was no association between time to healing and CD4 (p = 0.66). Four study-related severe AEs and no moderate AEs were reported: severe/moderate AE rate of 1.0% (95% CI: 0.27% to 2.5). This was non-inferior to 2% AEs (p = 0.0003). All AEs were device displacements resulting in surgical MC and, subsequently, complete healing. CONCLUSION: Male circumcision among healthy, HIV-positive men using PrePex is safe and effective. Reducing the barrier of HIV testing while improving counseling for safer sex practices among all MC clients could increase MC uptake and avert more HIV infections.

BACKGROUND: Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision (VMMC) is an effective method for HIV prevention and the World Health Organization (WHO) has recommended its expansion in 14 African countries with a high prevalence of HIV and low prevalence of male circumcision. The WHO has recently pre-qualified the PrePex device, a non-surgical male circumcision device, which reduces procedure time, can increase acceptability of VMMC, and can expand the set of potential provider cadres. The PrePex device was introduced in Zimbabwe as a way to scale-up VMMC services in the country. With the rapid scale-up of the PrePex device, as well as other similar devices, a strong surveillance system to detect adverse events (AE) is needed to monitor the safety profile of these devices. We performed a systems-based evaluation of the PrePex device AE active surveillance system in Zimbabwe. METHODS: The evaluation was based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Updated Guidelines for Evaluating Public Health Surveillance Systems. We adapted these guidelines to fit our local context. The evaluation incorporated the review of the standard operating procedures and surveillance system documents. Additionally, structured, in-person interviews were performed with key stakeholders who were users of the surveillance system at various levels. These key stakeholders were from the Ministry of Health, implementing partners, and health facilities in Harare. RESULTS: Clients were requested to return to the facility for follow-up on days 7, 14 and 49 after placement of the device. In the event of a severe AE, a standard report was generated by the health facility and relayed to the Ministry of Health Child and Care and donor agencies through predefined channels within 24 hours of diagnosis. Clinic staff reported difficulties with the amount of documentation required to follow up with clients and to report AEs. The surveillance system's acceptability among users interviewed was high, and users were motivated to identify all possible AEs related to this device. The surveillance system was purely paper-based and both duplicate and discrepant reporting forms between sites were identified. CONCLUSION: The PrePex AE active surveillance system was well accepted among participants in the health system. However, the amount of documentation which was required to follow-up with patients was a major barrier within the system, and might lead to decreased timeliness and quality of reporting. A passive surveillance system supported by electronic reporting would improve acceptance of the program.

BACKGROUND: In 2013, Zimbabwe's voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) program adopted performance-based financing (PBF) to speed progress towards ambitious VMMC targets. The $25 USD PBF intended to encourage low-paid healthcare workers to remain in the public sector and to strengthen the public healthcare system. The majority of the incentive supports healthcare workers (HCWs) who perform VMMC alongside other routine services; a small portion supports province, district, and facility levels. METHODS: This qualitative study assessed the effect of the PBF on HCW motivation, satisfaction, and professional relationships. The study objectives were to: 1) Gain understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of PBF at the HCW level; 2) Gain understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of PBF at the site level; and 3) Inform scale up, modification, or discontinuation of PBF for the national VMMC program. Sixteen focus groups were conducted: eight with HCWs who received PBF for VMMC and eight with HCWs in the same clinics who did not work in VMMC and, therefore, did not receive PBF. Fourteen key informant interviews ascertained administrator opinion. RESULTS: Findings suggest that PBF appreciably increased motivation among VMMC teams and helped improve facilities where VMMC services are provided. However, PBF appears to contribute to antagonism at the workplace, creating divisiveness that may reach beyond VMMC. PBF may also cause distortion in the healthcare system: HCWs prioritized incentivized VMMC services over other routine duties. To reduce workplace tension and improve the VMMC program, participants suggested increasing HCW training in VMMC to expand PBF beneficiaries and strengthening integration of VMMC services into routine care. CONCLUSION: In the low-resource, short-staffed context of Zimbabwe, PBF enabled rapid VMMC scale up and achievement of ambitious targets; however, side effects make PBF less advantageous and sustainable than envisioned. Careful consideration is warranted in choosing whether, and how, to implement PBF to prioritize a public health program.

Equitable access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) for men and women with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a principle endorsed by most countries and funding bodies, including the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) Relief (PEPFAR) (1). To evaluate gender equity in ART access among adults (defined for this report as persons aged ≥15 years), 765,087 adult ART patient medical records from 12 countries in five geographic regions* were analyzed to estimate the ratio of women to men among new ART enrollees for each calendar year during 2002-2013. This annual ratio was compared with estimates from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS)(dagger) of the ratio of HIV-infected adult women to men in the general population. In all 10 African countries and Haiti, the most recent estimates of the ratio of adult women to men among new ART enrollees significantly exceeded the UNAIDS estimates for the female-to-male ratio among HIV-infected adults by 23%-83%. In six African countries and Haiti, the ratio of women to men among new adult ART enrollees increased more sharply over time than the estimated UNAIDS female-to-male ratio among adults with HIV in the general population. Increased ART coverage among men is needed to decrease their morbidity and mortality and to reduce HIV incidence among their sexual partners. Reaching more men with HIV testing and linkage-to-care services and adoption of test-and-treat ART eligibility guidelines (i.e., regular testing of adults, and offering treatment to all infected persons with ART, regardless of CD4 cell test results) could reduce gender inequity in ART coverage.