Last data update: Apr 29, 2024. (Total: 46658 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 145 Records) |
Query Trace: Gift T [original query] |
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Estimates of the lifetime productivity costs of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in the United States
Chesson H , Spicknall IH , Kreisel KM , Gift TL . Sex Transm Dis 2024 BACKGROUND: Productivity costs of STIs reflect the value of lost time due to STI morbidity and mortality, including time spent travelling to, waiting for, and receiving STI treatment. The purpose of this study was to provide updated estimates of the average lifetime productivity cost for chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis, per incident infection. METHODS: We adapted published decision tree models from recent studies of the lifetime medical costs of chlamydia, gonorrhea, and syphilis in the United States. For each possible outcome of infection, we applied productivity costs that we obtained based on published health economic studies. Productivity costs included the value of patient time spent to receive treatment for STIs and for related sequelae such as pelvic inflammatory disease in women. We used a human capital approach and included losses in market (paid) and non-market (unpaid) productivity. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: The average lifetime productivity cost per infection was $28 for chlamydia in men, $205 for chlamydia in women, $37 for gonorrhea in men, $212 for gonorrhea in women, and $411 for syphilis regardless of sex, in 2023 US dollars. The estimated lifetime productivity costs of these STIs acquired in the United States in 2018 was $795 million. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates of the lifetime productivity costs can help in quantifying the overall economic burden of STIs in the United States beyond just the medical cost burden and can inform cost-effectiveness analyses of STI prevention activities. |
Changes in breastfeeding and related maternity care practices after Hurricanes Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico
Kortsmit K , Salvesen von Essen B , Anstey E , Ellington S , Hernández Virella WI , D'Angelo DV , Strid P , Magly Olmos I , Vargas Bernal M , Warner L . Breastfeed Med 2024 19 (3) 177-186 Background: Breastfeeding is recommended globally for most infants, especially during and after natural disasters when risk of adverse outcomes increases because of unsanitary conditions and lack of potable water. Materials and Methods: Using 2017-2019 data from Puerto Rico's Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System for 2,448 respondents with a recent live birth, we classified respondents into 4 hurricane exposure time periods based on infant birth month and year relative to when Hurricanes Irma and Maria occurred: (1) prehurricane; (2) acute hurricane; (3) posthurricane, early recovery; and (4) posthurricane, long-term recovery. We examined the association between maternity care practices during delivery hospitalization and exclusive breastfeeding at 3 months overall and stratified by time period. We also examined the associations between each maternity care practice and exclusive breastfeeding separately by time period. Results: Exclusive breastfeeding at 3 months was higher during the acute hurricane time period (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.43, 95% confidence interval: 1.09-1.87) than the prehurricane time period. Supportive maternity care practices were positively associated with exclusively breastfeeding, and practices that are risk factors for discontinuing breastfeeding were negatively associated with exclusive breastfeeding. Breastfeeding in the first hour (aPR range: 1.51-1.92) and rooming-in (aPR range: 1.50-2.58) were positively associated with exclusive breastfeeding across all time periods, except the prehurricane time period. Receipt of a gift pack with formula was negatively associated with exclusive breastfeeding (aPR range: 0.22-0.54) across all time periods. Conclusions: Maternity care practices during delivery hospitalization may influence breastfeeding behaviors and can improve breastfeeding during and after natural disasters. Strategies to maintain and improve these practices can be further supported during and after natural disasters. |
An interactive modeling tool for projecting the health and direct medical cost impact of changes in the sexually transmitted diseases prevention program budgets
Martin EG , Ansari B , Gift TL , Johnson BL , Collins D , Williams AM , Chesson HW . J Public Health Manag Pract 2024 30 (2) 221-230 CONTEXT: Estimating the return on investment for public health services, tailored to the state level, is critical for demonstrating their value and making resource allocation decisions. However, many health departments have limited staff capacity and expertise to conduct economic analyses in-house. PROGRAM: We developed a user-friendly, interactive Excel-based spreadsheet model that health departments can use to estimate the impact of increases or decreases in sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevention funding on the incidence and direct medical costs of chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, and STI-attributable HIV infections. Users tailor results to their jurisdictions by entering the size of their population served; the number of annual STI diagnoses; their prior annual funding amount; and their anticipated new funding amount. The interface was developed using human-centered design principles, including focus groups with 15 model users to collect feedback on an earlier model version and a usability study on the prototype with 6 model users to finalize the interface. IMPLEMENTATION: The STI Prevention Allocation Consequences Estimator ("SPACE Monkey 2.0") model will be publicly available as a free downloadable tool. EVALUATION: In the usability testing of the prototype, participants provided overall positive feedback. They appreciated the clear interpretations, outcomes expressed as direct medical costs, functionalities to interact with the output and copy charts into external applications, visualization designs, and accessible information about the model's assumptions and limitations. Participants provided positive responses to a 10-item usability evaluation survey regarding their experiences with the prototype. DISCUSSION: Modeling tools that synthesize literature-based estimates and are developed with human-centered design principles have the potential to make evidence-based estimates of budget changes widely accessible to health departments. |
Building a simple model to assess the impact of case investigation and contact tracing for sexually transmitted diseases: Lessons From COVID-19
Castonguay FM , Chesson HW , Jeon S , Rainisch G , Fischer LS , Adhikari BB , Kahn EB , Greening B Jr , Gift TL , Meltzer MI . AJPM Focus 2024 3 (1) 100147 INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a simple spreadsheet-based tool to help state and local public health officials assess the performance and impact of COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing in their jurisdiction. The applicability and feasibility of building such a tool for sexually transmitted diseases were assessed. METHODS: The key epidemiologic differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory diseases (e.g., mixing patterns, incubation period, duration of infection, and the availability of treatment) were identified, and their implications for modeling case investigation and contact tracing impact with a simple spreadsheet tool were remarked on. Existing features of the COVID-19 tool that are applicable for evaluating the impact of case investigation and contact tracing for sexually transmitted diseases were also identified. RESULTS: Our findings offer recommendations for the future development of a spreadsheet-based modeling tool for evaluating the impact of sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing efforts. Generally, we advocate for simplifying sexually transmitted disease-specific complexities and performing sensitivity analyses to assess uncertainty. The authors also acknowledge that more complex modeling approaches might be required but note that it is possible that a sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could incorporate features from more complex models while maintaining a user-friendly interface. CONCLUSIONS: A sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could benefit from the incorporation of key features of the COVID-19 model, namely its user-friendly interface. The inherent differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory viruses should not be seen as a limitation to the development of such tool. |
Resistance-minimising strategies for introducing a novel antibiotic for gonorrhoea treatment: a mathematical modelling study
Reichert E , Yaesoubi R , Rönn MM , Gift TL , Salomon JA , Grad YH . Lancet Microbe 2023 4 (10) e781-e789 BACKGROUND: Gonorrhoea is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection and an urgent public health concern because of increasing antibiotic resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae. Only ceftriaxone remains as the recommended treatment in the USA. With the prospect of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics being approved, we aimed to evaluate how to deploy a new drug to maximise its clinically useful lifespan. METHODS: We used a compartmental model of gonorrhoea transmission in a US population of men who have sex with men (MSM) to compare strategies for introducing a new antibiotic for gonorrhoea treatment. The MSM population was stratified into three sexual activity groups (low, intermediate, and high) characterised by annual rates of partner change. The four introduction strategies tested were: (1) random 50-50 allocation, where each treatment-seeking infected individual had a 50% probability of receiving either drug A (current drug; a ceftriaxone-like antibiotic) or drug B (a new antibiotic), effective at time 0; (2) combination therapy of both the current drug and the new antibiotic; (3) reserve strategy, by which the new antibiotic was held in reserve until the current therapy reached a 5% threshold prevalence of resistance; and (4) gradual switch, or the gradual introduction of the new drug until random 50-50 allocation was reached. The primary outcome of interest was the time until 5% prevalence of resistance to each of the drugs (the new drug and the current ceftriaxone-like antibiotic); sensitivity of the primary outcome to the properties of the new antibiotic, specifically the probability of resistance emergence after treatment and the fitness costs of resistance, was explored. Secondary outcomes included the time to a 1% resistance threshold for each drug, as well as population-level prevalence, mean and range annual incidence, and the cumulative number of incident gonococcal infections. FINDINGS: Under baseline model conditions, a 5% prevalence of resistance to each of drugs A and B was reached within 13·9 years with the reserve strategy, 18·2 years with the gradual switch strategy, 19·2 years with the random 50-50 allocation strategy, and 19·9 years with the combination therapy strategy. The reserve strategy was consistently inferior for mitigating antibiotic resistance under the parameter space explored and was increasingly outperformed by the other strategies as the probability of de novo resistance emergence decreased and as the fitness costs associated with resistance increased. Combination therapy tended to prolong the development of antibiotic resistance and minimise the number of annual gonococcal infections (under baseline model conditions, mean number of incident infections per year 178 641 [range 177 998-181 731] with combination therapy, 180 084 [178 011-184 405] with the reserve strategy). INTERPRETATION: Our study argues for rapid introduction of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics, recognising that the feasibility of each strategy must incorporate cost, safety, and other practical concerns. The analyses should be revisited once robust estimates of key parameters-ie, the likelihood of emergence of resistance and fitness costs of resistance for the new antibiotic-are available. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. |
The impact of rapid drug susceptibility tests on gonorrhea burden and lifespan of antibiotic treatments: A modeling study among men who have sex with men in the United States
Yaesoubi R , Xi Q , Hsu K , Gift TL , St Cyr SB , Rönn MM , Salomon JA , Grad YH . Am J Epidemiol 2023 193 (1) 17-25 Rapid point-of-care tests that diagnose gonococcal infections and identify susceptibility to antibiotics enable individualized treatment. This could improve patient outcomes and slow the emergence and spread of resistance. However, little is known about the long-term impact of such diagnostics on the burden of gonorrhea and the effective lifespan of antibiotics. We used a mathematical model of gonorrhea transmission among men who have sex with men in the US to project the annual rate of reported gonorrhea cases and the effective lifespan of ceftriaxone, the recommended antibiotic for the first-line treatment of gonorrhea, as well as two previously recommended antibiotics, ciprofloxacin and tetracycline, when a rapid drug susceptibility test (DST) that reports susceptibility to ciprofloxacin and tetracycline is available. The use of a rapid DST with ≥50% sensitivity and ≥95% specificity, defined in terms of correct ascertainment of drug susceptibility and non-susceptibility status, could increase the combined effective lifespan of ciprofloxacin, tetracycline, and ceftriaxone by at least 2 years over 25 years of simulation. If test specificity is imperfect, however, the increase in the effective lifespan of antibiotics is accompanied by an increase in the rate of reported gonorrhea cases even under perfect sensitivity. |
The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset (preprint)
Cramer EY , Huang Y , Wang Y , Ray EL , Cornell M , Bracher J , Brennen A , Rivadeneira AJC , Gerding A , House K , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mody V , Mody V , Niemi J , Stark A , Shah A , Wattanchit N , Zorn MW , Reich NG , US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium , Lopez VK , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M . medRxiv 2021 2021.11.04.21265886 Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident hospitalizations, incident cases, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at national, state, and county levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work. Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below: AIpert-pwllnod: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Caltech-CS156: Gary Clinard Innovation Fund; CEID-Walk: University of Georgia; CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook; COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health; Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information & Data Science Pilot Project; Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation; DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699; epiforecasts-ensemble1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) FDANIHASU: supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK; GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowment, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines, CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement; IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096); Imperial-ensemble1: SB acknowledges funding from the Wellcome Trust (219415); Institute of Business Forecasting: IBF; IowaStateLW-STEM: NSF DMS-1916204, Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics; IUPUI CIS: NSF; JHU_CSSE-DECOM: JHU CSSE: National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Real-time Forecasting of COVID-19 risk in the USA. 2021-2022. Award ID: 2108526. National Science Foundation (NSF) RAPID Development of an interactive web-based dashboard to track COVID-19 in real-time. 2020. Award ID: 2028604; JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant); JHU_UNC_GAS-StatMechP ol: NIH NIGMS: R01GM140564; JHUAPL-Bucky: US Dept of Health and Human Services; KITmetricslab-select_ensemble: Daniel Wolffram gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation; LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER; MIT-Cassandra: MIT Quest for Intelligence; MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01; CA NU38OT000297 from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE); NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; NotreDame-mobility: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718; PSI-DRAFT: NSF RAPID Grant # 2031536; QJHong-Encounter: NSF DMR-2001411 and DMR-1835939; SDSC_ISG-TrendModel: The development of the dashboard was partly funded by the Fondation Privee des Hopitaux Universitaires de Geneve; UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401; UChicagoCHATTOPADHYAY-UnIT: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) #HR00111890043/P00004 (I. Chattopadhyay, University of Chicago); UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626; UCSD_NEU-DeepGLEAM: Google Faculty Award, W31P4Q-21-C-0014; UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS #R35GM119582, NSF #1749854, NIGMS #R35GM119582; UMich-RidgeTfReg: This project is funded by the University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research; UVA-Ensemble: National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141; Wadnwani_AI-BayesOpt: This study is made possible by the generous support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The work described in this article was implemented under the TRACETB Project, managed by WIAI under the terms of Cooperative Agreement Number 72038620CA00006. The contents of this manuscript are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government; WalmartLabsML-LogForecasting: Team acknowledges Walmart to support this study Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesI confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced are available online at https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub |
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US (preprint)
Cramer EY , Ray EL , Lopez VK , Bracher J , Brennen A , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , House KH , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Khandelwal A , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Shah A , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Gu Y , Jain S , Bannur N , Deva A , Kulkarni M , Merugu S , Raval A , Shingi S , Tiwari A , White J , Abernethy NF , Woody S , Dahan M , Fox S , Gaither K , Lachmann M , Meyers LA , Scott JG , Tec M , Srivastava A , George GE , Cegan JC , Dettwiller ID , England WP , Farthing MW , Hunter RH , Lafferty B , Linkov I , Mayo ML , Parno MD , Rowland MA , Trump BD , Zhang-James Y , Chen S , Faraone SV , Hess J , Morley CP , Salekin A , Wang D , Corsetti SM , Baer TM , Eisenberg MC , Falb K , Huang Y , Martin ET , McCauley E , Myers RL , Schwarz T , Sheldon D , Gibson GC , Yu R , Gao L , Ma Y , Wu D , Yan X , Jin X , Wang YX , Chen Y , Guo L , Zhao Y , Gu Q , Chen J , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Biegel H , Lega J , McConnell S , Nagraj VP , Guertin SL , Hulme-Lowe C , Turner SD , Shi Y , Ban X , Walraven R , Hong QJ , Kong S , van de Walle A , Turtle JA , Ben-Nun M , Riley S , Riley P , Koyluoglu U , DesRoches D , Forli P , Hamory B , Kyriakides C , Leis H , Milliken J , Moloney M , Morgan J , Nirgudkar N , Ozcan G , Piwonka N , Ravi M , Schrader C , Shakhnovich E , Siegel D , Spatz R , Stiefeling C , Wilkinson B , Wong A , Cavany S , España G , Moore S , Oidtman R , Perkins A , Kraus D , Kraus A , Gao Z , Bian J , Cao W , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Vespignani A , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Xiong X , Zheng A , Baek J , Farias V , Georgescu A , Levi R , Sinha D , Wilde J , Perakis G , Bennouna MA , Nze-Ndong D , Singhvi D , Spantidakis I , Thayaparan L , Tsiourvas A , Sarker A , Jadbabaie A , Shah D , Della Penna N , Celi LA , Sundar S , Wolfinger R , Osthus D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Karlen D , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Lee EC , Dent J , Grantz KH , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Kaminsky K , Keegan LT , Lauer SA , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Meredith HR , Perez-Saez J , Shah S , Smith CP , Truelove SA , Wills J , Marshall M , Gardner L , Nixon K , Burant JC , Wang L , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang Y , Yu S , Reiner RC , Barber R , Gakidou E , Hay SI , Lim S , Murray C , Pigott D , Gurung HL , Baccam P , Stage SA , Suchoski BT , Prakash BA , Adhikari B , Cui J , Rodríguez A , Tabassum A , Xie J , Keskinocak P , Asplund J , Baxter A , Oruc BE , Serban N , Arik SO , Dusenberry M , Epshteyn A , Kanal E , Le LT , Li CL , Pfister T , Sava D , Sinha R , Tsai T , Yoder N , Yoon J , Zhang L , Abbott S , Bosse NI , Funk S , Hellewell J , Meakin SR , Sherratt K , Zhou M , Kalantari R , Yamana TK , Pei S , Shaman J , Li ML , Bertsimas D , Skali Lami O , Soni S , Tazi Bouardi H , Ayer T , Adee M , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller P , Xiao J , Wang Y , Wang Q , Xie S , Zeng D , Green A , Bien J , Brooks L , Hu AJ , Jahja M , McDonald D , Narasimhan B , Politsch C , Rajanala S , Rumack A , Simon N , Tibshirani RJ , Tibshirani R , Ventura V , Wasserman L , O'Dea EB , Drake JM , Pagano R , Tran QT , Ho LST , Huynh H , Walker JW , Slayton RB , Johansson MA , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG . medRxiv 2021 2021.02.03.21250974 Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44 |
Resistance-minimizing strategies for introducing a novel antibiotic for gonorrhea treatment: a mathematical modeling study (preprint)
Reichert E , Yaesoubi R , Ronn MM , Gift TL , Salomon JA , Grad YH . medRxiv 2023 17 Background Gonorrhea is a highly prevalent sexually transmitted infection and an urgent public health concern due to increasing antibiotic resistance. Only ceftriaxone remains as the recommended treatment in the U.S. The prospect of approval of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics raises the question of how to deploy a new drug to maximize its clinically useful lifespan. Methods We used a compartmental model of gonorrhea transmission in the U.S. population of men who have sex with men to compare strategies for introducing a new antibiotic for gonorrhea treatment. The strategies tested included holding the new antibiotic in reserve until the current therapy reached a threshold prevalence of resistance; using either drug, considering immediate and gradual introduction of the new drug; and combination therapy. The primary outcome of interest was the time until 5% prevalence of resistance to both the novel drug and to the current first-line drug (ceftriaxone). Findings The reserve strategy was consistently inferior for mitigating antibiotic resistance under the parameter space explored. The reserve strategy was increasingly outperformed by the other strategies as the probability of de novo resistance emergence decreased and as the fitness costs associated with resistance increased. Combination therapy tended to prolong the development of antibiotic resistance and minimize the number of annual gonococcal infections. Interpretation Our study argues for rapid introduction of new anti-gonococcal antibiotics, recognizing that the feasibility of each strategy must incorporate cost, safety, and other practical concerns. The analyses should be revisited once robust estimates of key parameters-likelihood of emergence of resistance and fitness costs of resistance for the new antibiotic-are available. Funding U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license. |
Serial interval and incubation period estimates of monkeypox virus infection in 12 U.S. jurisdictions, May - August 2022 (preprint)
Madewell ZJ , Charniga K , Masters NB , Asher J , Fahrenwald L , Still W , Chen J , Kipperman N , Bui D , Shea M , Saathoff-Huber L , Johnson S , Harbi K , Berns AL , Perez T , Gateley E , Spicknall IH , Nakazawa Y , Gift TL . medRxiv 2022 30 Using data collected by 12 U.S. health departments, we report mean estimated serial interval for monkeypox virus infection of 8.5 (95% CrI: 7.3 - 9.9) days for symptom onset from 57 case pairs and mean estimated incubation period of 5.6 (4.3 - 7.8) days from 35 case pairs for symptom onset. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license. |
Estimation of the Lifetime Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) Lost Due to Syphilis acquired in the United States in 2018 (preprint)
Lee K , You S , Li Y , Chesson H , Gift TL , Berruti AA , Hsu K , Yaesoubi R , Salomon JA , Ronn M . medRxiv 2022 28 Background: The purpose of this study was to estimate the health impact of syphilis in the United States in terms of the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost attributable to infections in 2018. Method(s): We developed a Markov model which simulates the natural history and long-term sequelae of syphilis. The model was parameterized by sex (men and women), sexual orientation (women who have sex with men, men who have sex with women [MSW], and men who have sex with men [MSM]), and by age at primary infection. We developed a separate decision tree model to account for health losses due to congenital syphilis. We estimated the average lifetime number of QALYs lost per infection, and the total expected lifetime number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018. We performed probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for uncertainty in the model's estimates. Finding(s): We estimated the average number of discounted lifetime QALYs lost per infection as 0.09 [0.03-0.19 95% uncertainty interval (UI)]. The QALY loss per infection was lower among MSM (0.06) than among MSW (0.15) and women (0.10). The total expected number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018 was 13,349 (5,071-31,360 95%UI). MSM account for 6,373 (47.7%) of the overall burden, compared to MSW (32.1%) and women (20.2%). For each case of congenital syphilis, we estimated 1.79 (1.43-2.16 95%UI) QALYs lost for the child and 0.06 (0.01-0.14 95%UI) QALYs lost for the mother. These per-case estimates correspond to 2,332 (1,871-2,825 95%UI) and 79 (17-177 95%UI) QALYs lost for children and mothers, respectively, due to congenital syphilis in 2018. Conclusion(s): Syphilis causes substantial health losses in adults and children. Quantifying these health losses in terms of QALYs can inform cost-effectiveness analyses and can facilitate comparisons of the burden of syphilis to that of other diseases. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. |
Costs, health benefits, and cost-effectiveness of chlamydia screening and partner notification in the United States, 2000-2019: A mathematical modeling analysis
Rönn MM , Li Y , Gift TL , Chesson HW , Menzies NA , Hsu K , Salomon JA . Sex Transm Dis 2023 50 (6) 351-358 BACKGROUND: Chlamydia remains a significant public health problem that contributes to adverse reproductive health outcomes. In the United States, sexually active women 24 years and younger are recommended to receive annual screening for chlamydia. In this study, we evaluated the impact of estimated current levels of screening and partner notification (PN), and the impact of screening based on guidelines on chlamydia associated sequelae, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) lost and costs. METHODS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of chlamydia screening, using a published calibrated pair formation transmission model that estimated trends in chlamydia screening coverage in the United States from 2000 to 2015 consistent with epidemiological data. We used probability trees to translate chlamydial infection outcomes into estimated numbers of chlamydia-associated sequelae, QALYs lost, and health care services costs (in 2020 US dollars). We evaluated the costs and population health benefits of screening and PN in the United States for 2000 to 2015, as compared with no screening and no PN. We also estimated the additional benefits that could be achieved by increasing screening coverage to the levels indicated by the policy recommendations for 2016 to 2019, compared with screening coverage achieved by 2015. RESULTS: Screening and PN from 2000 to 2015 were estimated to have averted 1.3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 490,000-2.3 million) cases of pelvic inflammatory disease, 430,000 (95% UI, 160,000-760,000) cases of chronic pelvic pain, 300,000 (95% UI, 104,000-570,000) cases of tubal factor infertility, and 140,000 (95% UI, 47,000-260,000) cases of ectopic pregnancy in women. We estimated that chlamydia screening and PN cost $9700 per QALY gained compared with no screening and no PN. We estimated the full realization of chlamydia screening guidelines for 2016 to 2019 to cost $30,000 per QALY gained, compared with a scenario in which chlamydia screening coverage was maintained at 2015 levels. DISCUSSION: Chlamydia screening and PN as implemented in the United States from 2000 through 2015 has substantially improved population health and provided good value for money when considering associated health care services costs. Further population health gains are attainable by increasing screening further, at reasonable cost per QALY gained. |
Estimating the Direct Medical Costs and Productivity Loss of Outpatient Chlamydia and Gonorrhea Treatment
Kumar S , Chesson H , Gift TL . Sex Transm Dis 2021 48 (2) e18-e21 We used 2016-2017 administrative claims data to calculate the direct medical cost and productivity loss per diagnosed case of chlamydia and gonorrhea treatment. In 2018 US dollars, the direct cost per diagnosed case was $151 for chlamydia (n = 9180) and $85 for gonorrhea (n = 3048); productivity loss was $206 (n = 31) and $246 (n = 7), respectively, among those missing work seeking care. |
Estimating the Direct Medical Outpatient Costs of Diagnosis and Treatment of Trichomoniasis Among Commercially Insured Patients in the United States, 2016 to 2018
Kumar S , Chesson H , Gift TL . Sex Transm Dis 2021 48 (3) e45-e47 We used 2016-2018 outpatient claims data to calculate direct outpatient medical costs per case of trichomoniasis in 2019 US dollars. The outpatient, drug, and total costs per treated case of trichomoniasis were $174, $39, and $213, respectively. Total costs were higher for female patients ($220) than for male patients ($158). |
Serial interval and incubation period estimates of monkeypox virus infection in 12 jurisdictions, United States, May-August 2022
Madewell ZJ , Charniga K , Masters NB , Asher J , Fahrenwald L , Still W , Chen J , Kipperman N , Bui D , Shea M , Saunders K , Saathoff-Huber L , Johnson S , Harbi K , Berns AL , Perez T , Gateley E , Spicknall IH , Nakazawa Y , Gift TL . Emerg Infect Dis 2023 29 (4) 818-821 Using data from 12 US health departments, we estimated mean serial interval for monkeypox virus infection to be 8.5 (95% credible interval 7.3-9.9) days for symptom onset, based on 57 case pairs. Mean estimated incubation period was 5.6 (95% credible interval 4.3-7.8) days for symptom onset, based on 35 case pairs. |
The epidemiology and costs of disease intervention specialist retention
Becher J , Salmon ME , Gift TL . Sex Transm Dis 2023 50 S64-S69 INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic changed the environment in which disease intervention specialists (DIS) operate, as their skills were in demand beyond STD control programs. Workforce conditions generally have changed in the last 2 years, imposing additional challenges. Retaining STD DIS has become more difficult in the changed environment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a landscape scan and obtained data from literature and personal observations to characterize current DIS workforce issues. We used published employment data to characterize current labor market conditions and described how cost-effectiveness analysis could be used to assess potential DIS retention interventions. An example illustrating cost-effectiveness concepts was developed. RESULTS: Many STD control programs faced difficulties in retaining STD DIS, because competing positions often could be done without field work. Economic and crime issues posed additional challenges. General workforce turnover has increased 33% since 2016. Turnover varies by age, gender, and education. Cost-effectiveness analysis can be used to assess DIS retention interventions, but data on costs and outcomes are needed on an ongoing basis. Changes in the workforce environment could impact both retention and the effectiveness of retention interventions. CONCLUSIONS: Workforce changes have impacted employee retention. Increased federal funding makes expansion of the DIS workforce possible, but the labor market environment will continue to pose challenges to recruitment and retention. |
The estimated lifetime quality-adjusted life-years lost due to chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis in the United States in 2018
Li Y , You S , Lee K , Yaesoubi R , Hsu K , Gift TL , Chesson HW , Berruti AA , Salomon JA , Rönn MM . J Infect Dis 2023 227 (8) 1007-1018 OBJECTIVES: We quantified the quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost attributable to chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis in the US, by sex and age group. METHODS: We adapted a previous probability-tree model to estimate the average number of lifetime QALYs lost due to genital chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomoniasis, per incident infection and at the population level, by sex and age group. We conducted multivariate sensitivity analyses to address uncertainty around key parameter values. FINDINGS: The estimated total discounted lifetime QALYs lost for men and women, respectively, due to infections acquired in 2018, were 1,541 (95% uncertainty interval: 186, 6,358) and 111,872 (29,777, 267,404) for chlamydia, 989 (127, 3,720) and 12,112 (2,410, 33,895) for gonorrhea, and 386 (30, 1,851) and 4,576 (13, 30,355) for trichomoniasis. Total QALYs lost were highest among women ages 15-24 years with chlamydia. QALYs lost estimates were highly sensitive to disutilities (health losses) of infections and sequelae, and to duration of infections and chronic sequelae for chlamydia and gonorrhea in women. CONCLUSIONS: The three sexually transmitted infections cause substantial health losses in the US, particularly gonorrhea and chlamydia among women. The estimates of lifetime QALYs lost per infection help to prioritize prevention policies and inform cost-effectiveness analyses of STI interventions. |
Lifetime quality-adjusted life years lost due to genital herpes acquired in the United States in 2018: a mathematical modeling study
You S , Yaesoubi R , Lee K , Li Y , Eppink ST , Hsu KK , Chesson HW , Gift TL , Berruti AA , Salomon JA , Rönn MM . Lancet Reg Health Am 2023 19 100427 Background: Genital herpes (GH), caused by herpes simplex virus type 1 and type 2 (HSV-1, HSV-2), is a common sexually transmitted disease associated with adverse health outcomes. Symptoms associated with GH outbreaks can be reduced by antiviral medications, but the infection is incurable and lifelong. In this study, we estimate the long-term health impacts of GH in the United States using quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost. Methods: We used probability trees to model the natural history of GH secondary to infection with HSV-1 and HSV-2 among people aged 18–49 years. We modelled the following outcomes to quantify the major causes of health losses following infection: symptomatic herpes outbreaks, psychosocial impacts associated with diagnosis and recurrences, urinary retention caused by sacral radiculitis, aseptic meningitis, Mollaret's meningitis, and neonatal herpes. The model was parameterized based on published literature on the natural history of GH. We summarized losses of health by computing the lifetime number of QALYs lost per genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 infection, and we combined this information with incidence estimates to compute the total lifetime number of QALYs lost due to infections acquired in 2018 in the United States. Findings: We estimated 0.05 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.02–0.08) lifetime QALYs lost per incident GH infection acquired in 2018, equivalent to losing 0.05 years or about 18 days of life for one person with perfect health. The average number of QALYs lost per GH infection due to genital HSV-1 and HSV-2 was 0.01 (95% UI 0.01–0.02) and 0.05 (95% UI 0.02–0.09), respectively. The burden of genital HSV-1 is higher among women, while the burden of HSV-2 is higher among men. QALYs lost per neonatal herpes infection was estimated to be 7.93 (95% UI 6.63–9.19). At the population level, the total estimated lifetime QALYs lost as a result of GH infections acquired in 2018 was 33,100 (95% UI 12,600–67,900) due to GH in adults and 3,140 (95% UI 2,260–4,140) due to neonatal herpes. Results were most sensitive to assumptions on the magnitude of the disutility associated with post-diagnosis psychosocial distress and symptomatic recurrences. Interpretation: GH is associated with substantial health losses in the United States. Results from this study can be used to compare the burden of GH to other diseases, and it provides inputs that may be used in studies on the health impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions that aim to reduce the burden of GH. Funding: The Center for Disease Control and Prevention © 2023 The Author(s) |
Impact of the early COVID-19 pandemic on the number of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uses and the proportion of PrEP users receiving STI testing services
Schmidt MA , Salas SB , Donald JL , Gift TL , Tao G . Sex Transm Dis 2023 50 (5) 304-309 BACKGROUND: With the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) care management, we assessed the number of PrEP users and sexually transmitted infection (STI) testing-eligible PrEP users, STI testing rates, and prevalence between prepandemic (January 1, 2018-March 31, 2020) and early-pandemic (April 1, 2020-September 30, 2020) periods. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, a PrEP user for a given quarter is defined as either a previous PrEP user or a PrEP initiator who has at least 1-day coverage of tenofovir/emtricitabine in the given quarter. The STI testing-eligible PrEP users for a given quarter were defined as those persons whose runout date (previous dispense date + days of tenofovir/emtricitabine supply) was in the given quarter. RESULTS: The quarterly number of PrEP users increased from the first quarter of 2018 to the first quarter of 2020 and then decreased in the second and third quarter of 2020. Among STI testing-eligible PrEP users who had ≤14 days between runout and next refill date, gonorrhea and chlamydia screening testing rates were 95.1% for prepandemic and 93.4% for early pandemic ( P = 0.1011). Among all STI testing-eligible PrEP users who were tested for gonorrhea and chlamydia, gonorrhea prevalence was 6.7% for prepandemic and 5.7% for early pandemic ( P = 0.3096), and chlamydia prevalence was 7.0% for prepandemic and 5.8% for early pandemic ( P = 0.2158). CONCLUSIONS: Although the early COVID-19 pandemic resulted in lower numbers of PrEP users and PrEP initiators, individuals who remained continuous users of PrEP maintained extremely high rates of bacterial STI screening. With high STI prevalence among PrEP users, assessments of PrEP care management are continuously needed. |
Estimated number of incident HIV infections in men who have sex with men attributable to gonorrhea and chlamydia, per gonococcal or chlamydial infection, in the United States
Jones J , Jenness SM , Le Guillou A , Sullivan PS , Gift TL , Delaney KP , Chesson H . Sex Transm Dis 2023 50 (2) 83-85 Using a network model, we simulated transmission of HIV, gonorrhea, and chlamydia among men who have sex with men to estimate the number of HIV infections that can be attributed to gonorrhea and chlamydia, per gonococcal and chlamydial infection. This metric can inform future modeling and health economic studies. | eng |
Cost-effectiveness considerations for disease intervention
Williams AM , Gift TL . Sex Transm Dis 2022 As part of the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, the federal government announced more than | one billion dollars in new funding to support the disease intervention specialist (DIS) workforce.1 | As this funding is dispersed, state and local public health officials will decide how to best use it | to advance public health goals, given budget and workforce constraints. Decisions on how to | develop and implement a program or intervention are made in consideration of these resource | limitations, and cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) provides a framework for guiding this | decision-making process. |
Estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years lost due to N. gonorrhoeae infections acquired in 2015 in the United States: A modelling study of overall burden and disparities by age, race/ethnicity, and other factors
Li Y , Rönn MM , Tuite AR , Chesson HW , Gift TL , Trikalinos TA , Testa C , Bellerose M , Hsu K , Berruti AA , Malyuta Y , Menzies NA , Salomon JA . Lancet Reg Health Am 2022 16 100364 Background: Disparities in the health and economic burden of gonorrhoea have not been systematically quantified. We estimated population-level health losses and costs associated with gonococcal infection and sequelae in the United States. Methods: We used probability-tree models to capture gonorrhoea sequelae and to estimate attributable disease burden in terms of the discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost due to incident infections acquired during 2015 from the healthcare system perspective. Numbers of infections in 2015 were obtained from a published gonorrhoea transmission model. We evaluated population-level disease burden, disaggregated by sex, age, race/ethnicity, and for men who have sex with men (MSM). We conducted a multivariate sensitivity analysis for key parameters. Findings: Discounted lifetime QALYs lost per incident gonococcal infection were estimated as 0.093 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0.022-0.22) for women, 0.0020 (0.0015-0.0024) for heterosexual men, and 0.0015 (0.00070-0.0021) for MSM. Discounted lifetime costs per incident infection were USD 261 (109-480), 169 (88-263), and 133 (50-239), respectively. At the population level, total discounted lifetime QALYs lost due to infections acquired during 2015 were 53,293 (12,326-125,366) for women, 621 (430-872) for heterosexual men, and 1,078 (427-1,870) for MSM. Total discounted lifetime costs were USD 150 million (64-277 million), 54 million (25-92 million), and 97 million (34-197 million), respectively. The highest total burden of both QALYs and costs at the population-level was observed in Non-Hispanic Black women, and highest burden per 1,000 person-years was identified in MSM among men and American Indian/Alaska Native among women. Interpretation: Gonorrhoea causes substantial health losses and costs in the United States. These results can inform planning and prioritization of prevention services. Funding: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Charles A. King Trust. © 2022 The Author(s) |
Choosing the emergency department as an alternative for STD care: Potential disparities in access
Pearson WS , Tromble E , Jenkins WD , Solnick R , Gift TL . J Health Care Poor Underserved 2022 33 (3) 1163-1168 This analysis was designed to determine if there existed differences by race in seeking sexually transmitted disease (STD) care in an emergency department (ED). Methods. Data were collected from 4,138 patients attending 26 STD clinics across the United States (U.S.). The questionnaire asked where the patient would have sought care if the STD clinic had not been available that day. Responses were stratified by race and differences were tested for statistical significance. Results. Black/African American patients chose hospital emergency room as an alternative for STD clinic care at a rate approximately 2.5 times that of White patients (15.5% v. 5.8%, p <.05). This difference persisted among Black/African American patients after controlling for demographic variables (adjusted OR 2.91; 2.213.82 95% CI). Discussion. Receiving appropriate care is key to stemming the increases in sexually transmitted infections in the U.S. These findings suggest that disparities in access to STD care exist for Black/African American people. Meharry Medical College Journal of Health Care for the Poor and Underserved. |
Modeling the impact of sexual networks in the transmission of monkeypox virus among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men - United States, 2022
Spicknall IH , Pollock ED , Clay PA , Oster AM , Charniga K , Masters N , Nakazawa YJ , Rainisch G , Gundlapalli AV , Gift TL . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2022 71 (35) 1131-1135 What is already known about this topic? The 2022 monkeypox outbreak is associated with sexual and intimate contact. Survey data suggest that gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), who have been disproportionately affected, are reducing one-time partnerships. What is added by this report? Modeling of sexual infection transmission between men indicates that one-time partnerships, which account for 3% of daily sexual partnerships and 16% of daily sex acts, account for approximately 50% of daily Monkeypox virus (MPXV) transmission. A 40% reduction in one-time partnerships might delay the spread of monkeypox and reduce the percentage of persons infected by 20% to 31%. What are the implications for public health practice? Reductions in one-time partnerships, already being reported by MSM, might significantly reduce MPXV transmission. © 2022 Department of Health and Human Services. All rights reserved. |
The Impact of Community-Based Testing Sites and Gift Incentives on COVID-19 Testing Uptake in Maryland, April 29 - May 9, 2021.
Turbyfill C , Thomas I , Agravat N , Prasher JM , Nett RJ , Stevens M , Ricaldi JN , Dunams TM , Brickhouse-Frazier L , Carter MD , Gebru Y , King A , May CS , Miller JD , Oguh C , Pullman A , Roman K , Rose C , Scherr R , Sidibe T , Soelaeman R , Weinstein J , Wilson T , Tran CH . Am J Health Promot 2022 37 (2) 8901171221119796 PURPOSE: Information on incentives for COVID-19 testing is needed to understand effective practices that encourage testing uptake. We describe characteristics of those who received an incentive after performing a rapid antigen test. DESIGN: Cross-sectional descriptive analysis of survey data. SETTING: During April 29-May 9, 2021, COVID-19 rapid antigen testing was offered in 2 Maryland cities. SAMPLE: Convenience sample of 553 adults (≥18 years) who tested and received an incentive; 93% consented to survey. MEASURES: Survey questions assessed reasons for testing, testing history, barriers, and demographics. ANALYSIS: Robust Poisson regressions were used to determine characteristic differences based on testing history and between participants who would re-test in the future without an incentive vs participants who would not. RESULTS: The most common reasons for testing were the desire to be tested (n = 280; 54%) and convenience of location (n = 146; 28%). Those motivated by an incentive to test (n = 110; 21%) were 5.83 times as likely to state they would not test again without an incentive, compared to those with other reasons for testing (95% CI: 2.67-12.72, P < .001). CRITICAL LIMITATIONS: No comparative study group. CONCLUSION: Results indicate internal motivation and convenience were prominent factors supporting testing uptake. Incentives may increase community testing participation, particularly among people who have never tested. Keywords COVID-19, pandemic, incentives, health behavior, community testing. |
The Cost of Operating Sexual Health Clinics During the Ending the (HIV) Epidemic Initiative in New York City.
Williams AM , Jamison K , Eppink ST , Pathela P , Blank S , Peters D , Gift TL , Berruti AA . Sex Transm Dis 2022 49 (11) 771-777 BACKGROUND: As part of New York State's Ending the Epidemic (EtE) initiative, Sexual Health Clinics (SHCs) in New York City (NYC) invested in clinic enhancements and expanded their HIV-related services to increase access to HIV prevention interventions and treatment. The objective of this study was to estimate and describe the change in SHC operating costs related to clinic enhancements and expanded patient services implemented as part of the EtE initiative. METHODS: A comprehensive micro-costing approach was used to collect retrospective cost information from SHCs, broken down by category and programmatic activity. Cost information was collected from eight clinics across NYC during two 6-month time periods before (2015) and during (2018 - 2019) EtE. RESULTS: Eight SHCs reported comprehensive cost data. Costs increased by $800,000 on average per clinic during the 6-month EtE period. The cost per visit at a SHC increased by $120 on average to $381 (ranging from $302-$464) during the EtE period. Personnel costs accounted for 69.9% of EtE costs and HIV-related medications accounted for 8.9% of costs. Employment of social workers and patient navigators increased costs by approximately $150,000 on average per clinic. Post-exposure prophylaxis was the costliest medication with average expenditures of $103,800 per clinic. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the key drivers of cost increases when offering enhanced HIV services in SHCs. Documenting the changes in resources necessary to implement these services and their costs can inform other health departments on the viability of offering enhanced HIV services within their own clinics. |
Effect of screening and treatment for gonorrhea and chlamydia on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in the United States: A modeling analysis
Jones J , Le Guillou A , Gift TL , Chesson H , Bernstein K , Delaney K , Lyles C , Berruti A , Sullivan PS , Jenness SM . Sex Transm Dis 2022 49 (10) 669-676 BACKGROUND: Previous models have estimated the total population attributable fraction of NG/CT on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), but this does not represent realistic intervention effects. We estimated the potential impact of screening for NG/CT on downstream incidence of HIV among MSM. METHODS: Using a network model, we estimated the effects of varying coverage levels for STI screening among different priority populations: all sexually active MSM regardless of HIV serostatus, MSM with multiple recent (past 6 months) sex partners regardless of serostatus, MSM without HIV, and MSM with HIV. Under the assumption that all screening events included a urethral test, we also examined the effect of increasing of the proportion of screening events that include rectal screening for NG/CT on HIV incidence. RESULTS: Increasing annual NG/CT screening among sexually active MSM by 60% averted 4.7% of HIV infections over a 10-year period (interquartile range (IQR): 2.3, 7.3). More HIV infections were averted when screening was focused on MSM with multiple recent sex partners: 60% coverage among MSM with multiple recent sex partners averted 9.8% of HIV infections (IQR: 8.1, 11.6). Increased STI screening among MSM without HIV averted more new HIV infections compared to the transmissions averted due to screening MSM with HIV, but fewer NG/CT tests were needed among MSM with HIV to avert a single new HIV infection. CONCLUSIONS: NG/CT screening among MSM is expected to lead to modest but clinically relevant reductions in HIV incidence among MSM. |
Estimation of the lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYS) lost due to syphilis acquired in the United States in 2018
Lee K , You S , Li Y , Chesson H , Gift TL , Berruti AA , Hsu K , Yaesoubi R , Salomon JA , Rönn M . Clin Infect Dis 2022 76 (3) e810-e819 BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to estimate the health impact of syphilis in the United States in terms of the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost attributable to infections in 2018. METHODS: We developed a Markov model which simulates the natural history and management of syphilis. The model was parameterized by sex and sexual orientation (women who have sex with men, men who have sex with women[MSW], and men who have sex with men[MSM]), and by age at primary infection. We developed a separate decision tree model to quantify health losses due to congenital syphilis. We estimated the average lifetime number of QALYs lost per infection, and the total expected lifetime number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018. RESULTS: We estimated the average number of discounted lifetime QALYs lost per infection as 0.09 [0.03-0.19 95% uncertainty interval (UI)]. The total expected number of QALYs lost due to syphilis acquired in 2018 was 13,349[5,071-31,360]. While per-case loss was the lowest among MSM(0.06), MSM accounted for 47.7% of the overall burden. For each case of congenital syphilis, we estimated 1.79[1.43-2.16] and 0.06[0.01-0.14] QALYs lost in the child and the mother, respectively. We projected 2,332[1,871-2,825] and 79[17-177] QALYs lost for children and mothers, respectively, due to congenital syphilis in 2018. CONCLUSIONS: Syphilis causes substantial health losses in adults and children. Quantifying these health losses in terms of QALYs can inform cost-effectiveness analyses and can facilitate comparisons of the burden of syphilis to that of other diseases. |
Remote health interventions: Effectiveness, cost, and cost-effectiveness considerations
Williams AM , Gift TL . Sex Transm Dis 2022 49 S15-S17 With declining public health funding and increasing sexually transmitted infection (STI) rates,1 STI clinics must find ways to serve patients more efficiently. As remote health interventions become an integral part of sexual health services, it is critical that researchers assess the effectiveness, cost, and cost-effectiveness of these interventions. Remote health broadly encompasses medical services that do not involve in-person clinic visits. This includes not only services such as telehealth via phone or video calls, but also low-tech services that are performed away from brick-and-mortar health clinics. Examples of remote health services for STIs include expedited partner therapy (EPT),2 mailed specimen collection kits (e.g., I Want the Kit),3 field-delivered treatment, and postexposure prophylaxis hotlines, among others. |
Foods and beverages available to nurses in hospital cafeterias, vending machines, and gift shops
Horton Dias CE , Dawson RM , Harris DM , Wirth MD , Abshire DA . Am J Health Promot 2022 36 (7) 8901171221089620 PURPOSE: Hospitals are important workplaces for nurses with many perceived barriers to healthy eating, but objective assessments are lacking. This study evaluated the healthfulness of hospital consumer food environments. DESIGN: Cross-sectional observational; Setting: South Carolina; Subjects: Cafeterias, vending machines (VM), and gift shops (GS) in hospitals of varying size, urbanization, and region. MEASURES: Using the Hospital Nutrition Environment Scan (HNES), primary outcomes of interest included availability, access, prices, and location of healthy foods in relation to nursing units. ANALYSIS: Descriptive and inferential statistics by independent samples t-test, ANOVA, Mann-Whitney U, χ2, or Fisher's exact test as appropriate. RESULTS: Thirty-one hospitals were observed from December 2019 to February 2020. Average composite HNES score (n = 28) was 46.3 ± 14.9 (-45 to 173 range), indicating sub-optimal food environments. Cafeterias (n = 31) scored an average of 30.9 ± 10.5 (-33 to 86 range). Average VM (n = 31) and GS (n = 28) scores were 11.6 ± 6.0 (-6 to 55 range) and 2.9 ± 4.0 (-6 to 32 range), respectively. Small hospitals (≤100 beds) had lower average cafeteria score (22.4 ± 10.3) than extra-large hospitals (≥500 beds; 42 ± 5.2, P < .01). Small hospitals also had lower composite HNES scores (34.4 ± 17.1) compared to extra-large hospitals (61.0 ± 14.4, P = .02). Data regarding availability, access, prices, and location were also reported. CONCLUSION: Due to abundant availability of unhealthy foods and beverages, hospital consumer food environments scored low on observations using the HNES, highlighting the opportunity to improve the healthfulness of facility offerings. |
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