Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed guidance for community health workers (CHWs) in identifying sick young infants based on clinical signs. We conducted a prospective, observational cohort study to characterise mortality risk of young infants based on their clinical signs. Methods: We conducted a population-based, prospective observational cohort study at five sites in Bangladesh (Sylhet, November 01, 2011–December 31, 2013), India (Vellore and Odisha, September 01, 2013–February 28, 2015), and Pakistan (Karachi, January 01, 2012–December 31, 2013; Matiari, March 01, 2012–December 31, 2013) to identify newborn infants who were followed-up by CHWs through 10 scheduled home visits over the first 60 completed days after birth to identify signs of possible serious bacterial infection (PSBI). We determined the frequency of signs and conducted Cox regression to investigate the association of signs with mortality risk within 7 days of identification of the signs. Findings: CHWs made 522,309 visits to assess 63,017 young infants and found ≥1 sign(s) of PSBI at 14,245 visits (2.7%), including 5.8% (5568 of 96,390) and 1.8% (6635 of 365,769) of visits of infants 0–<3 and 7–<60 days of age, respectively. Each of the seven signs of PSBI when found alone was associated with significantly (p < 0.0001) increased risk for mortality, which increased further if any other additional sign of PSBI was found concurrently. Over the young infant period (days 0–<60) CHW identification of no movement or movement only on stimulation was associated with the highest risk for mortality [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 73.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 44.4–119.9] followed by poor feeding (aHR 31.9, 95% CI 24.1–42.3) and hypothermia (<35.5 °C) (aHR 31.4, 95% CI 23.5–41.9). Hypothermia had particularly high risk for mortality during days 7–<60 (HR 45.1, 95% CI 27.6–73.4). Interpretation: WHO reconsideration of hypothermia as a sign of critical illness is warranted. Implementation research is urgently needed to reduce infant mortality by ensuring immediate referrals and interventions for children identified early by CHWs with no movement or movement only on stimulation, hypothermia, or poor feeding, especially in resource-poor settings. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, New Venture Fund for Global Policy and Advocacy. © 2025 The Author(s)

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) that are ten-valent (PCV10) and 13-valent (PCV13) became available in 2010. We evaluated their global impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence in all ages. METHODS: Serotype-specific IPD cases and population denominators were obtained directly from surveillance sites using PCV10 or PCV13 in their national immunisation programmes and with a primary series uptake of at least 50%. Annual incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated comparing the incidence before any PCV with each year post-PCV10 or post-PCV13 introduction using Bayesian multi-level, mixed-effects Poisson regressions, by site and age group. All site-weighted average IRRs were estimated using linear mixed-effects regression, stratified by product and previous seven-valent PCV (PCV7) effect (none, moderate, or substantial). FINDINGS: Analyses included 32 PCV13 sites (488 758 cases) and 15 PCV10 sites (46 386 cases) in 30 countries, primarily high income (39 sites), using booster dose schedules (41 sites). By 6 years after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction, IPD due to PCV10-type serotypes and PCV10-related serotype 6A declined substantially for both products (age <5 years: 83-99% decline; ≥65 years: 54-96% decline). PCV7-related serotype 19A increases before PCV10 or PCV13 introduction were reversed at PCV13 sites (age <5 years: 61-79% decline relative to before any PCV; age ≥65 years: 7-26% decline) but increased at PCV10 sites (age <5 years: 1·6-2·3-fold; age ≥65 years: 3·6-4·9-fold). Serotype 3 IRRs had no consistent trends for either product or age group. Non-PCV13-type IPD increased similarly for both products (age <5 years: 2·3-3·3-fold; age ≥65 years: 1·7-2·3-fold). Despite different serotype 19A trends, all-serotype IPD declined similarly between products among children younger than 5 years (58-74%); among adults aged 65 years or older, declines were greater at PCV13 (25-29%) than PCV10 (4-14%) sites, but other differences between sites precluded attribution to product. INTERPRETATION: Long-term use of PCV10 or PCV13 reduced IPD substantially in young children and more moderately in older ages. Non-vaccine-type serotypes increased approximately two-fold to three-fold by 6 years after introduction of PCV10 or PCV13. Continuing serotype 19A increases at PCV10 sites and declines at PCV13 sites suggest that PCV13 use would further reduce IPD at PCV10 sites. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

BACKGROUND: Widespread use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has reduced vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). We describe the serotype distribution of IPD after extensive use of ten-valent PCV (PCV10; Synflorix, GSK) and 13-valent PCV (PCV13; Prevenar 13, Pfizer) globally. METHODS: IPD data were obtained from surveillance sites participating in the WHO-commissioned Pneumococcal Serotype Replacement and Distribution Estimation (PSERENADE) project that exclusively used PCV10 or PCV13 (hereafter PCV10 and PCV13 sites, respectively) in their national immunisation programmes and had primary series uptake of at least 70%. Serotype distribution was estimated for IPD cases occurring 5 years or more after PCV10 or PCV13 introduction (ie, the mature period when the serotype distribution had stabilised) using multinomial Dirichlet regression, stratified by PCV product and age group (<5 years, 5-17 years, 18-49 years, and ≥50 years). FINDINGS: The analysis included cases occurring primarily between 2015 and 2018 from 42 PCV13 sites (63 362 cases) and 12 PCV10 sites (6806 cases) in 41 countries. Sites were mostly high income (36 [67%] of 54) and used three-dose or four-dose booster schedules (44 [81%]). At PCV10 sites, PCV10 serotypes caused 10·0% (95% CI 6·3-12·9) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 15·5% (13·4-19·3) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older, while PCV13 serotypes caused 52·1% (49·2-65·4) and 45·6% (40·0-50·0), respectively. At PCV13 sites, PCV13 serotypes caused 26·4% (21·3-30·0) of IPD cases in children younger than 5 years and 29·5% (27·5-33·0) of cases in adults aged 50 years or older. The leading serotype at PCV10 sites was 19A in children younger than 5 years (30·6% [95% CI 18·2-43·1]) and adults aged 50 years or older (14·8% [11·9-17·8]). Serotype 3 was a top-ranked serotype, causing about 9% of cases in children younger than 5 years and 14% in adults aged 50 years or older at both PCV10 and PCV13 sites. Across all age and PCV10 or PCV13 strata, the proportion of IPD targeted by higher-valency PCVs beyond PCV13 was 4·1-9·7% for PCV15, 13·5-36·0% for PCV20, 29·9-53·8% for PCV21, 15·6-42·0% for PCV24, and 31·5-50·1% for PCV25. All top-ten ranked non-PCV13 serotypes are included in at least one higher-valency PCV. INTERPRETATION: The proportion of IPD due to serotypes included in PCVs in use was low in mature PCV10 and PCV13 settings. Serotype distribution differed between PCV10 and PCV13 sites and age groups. Higher-valency PCVs target most remaining IPD and are expected to extend impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation as part of the WHO Pneumococcal Vaccines Technical Coordination Project.

BACKGROUND: Egg-based inactivated quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (eIIV4), cell culture-based inactivated quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (ccIIV4), and recombinant haemagglutinin (HA)-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (RIV4) have been licensed for use in the USA. In this study, we used antigen-specific serum proteomics analysis to assess how the molecular composition and qualities of the serological antibody repertoires differ after seasonal influenza immunisation by each of the three vaccines and how different vaccination platforms affect the HA binding affinity and breadth of the serum antibodies that comprise the polyclonal response. METHODS: In this comparative, prospective, observational cohort study, we included female US health-care personnel (mean age 47·6 years [SD 8]) who received a single dose of RIV4, eIIV4, or ccIIV4 during the 2018-19 influenza season at Baylor Scott & White Health (Temple, TX, USA). Eligible individuals were selected based on comparable day 28 serum microneutralisation titres and similar vaccination history. Laboratory investigators were blinded to assignment until testing was completed. The preplanned exploratory endpoints were assessed by deconvoluting the serological repertoire specific to A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 (H3N2) HA before (day 0) and after (day 28) immunisation using bottom-up liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry proteomics (referred to as Ig-Seq) and natively paired variable heavy chain-variable light chain high-throughput B-cell receptor sequencing (referred to as BCR-Seq). Features of the antigen-specific serological repertoire at day 0 and day 28 for the three vaccine groups were compared. Antibodies identified with high confidence in sera were recombinantly expressed and characterised in depth to determine the binding affinity and breadth to time-ordered H3 HA proteins. FINDINGS: During September and October of the 2018-19 influenza season, 15 individuals were recruited and assigned to receive RIV4 (n=5), eIIV4 (n=5), or ccIIV4 (n=5). For all three cohorts, the serum antibody repertoire was dominated by back-boosted antibody lineages (median 98% [95% CI 88-99]) that were present in the serum before vaccination. Although vaccine platform-dependent differences were not evident in the repertoire diversity, somatic hypermutation, or heavy chain complementarity determining region 3 biochemical features, antibodies boosted by RIV4 showed substantially higher binding affinity to the vaccine H3/HA (median half-maximal effective concentration [EC50] to A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 HA: 0·037 μg/mL [95% CI 0·012-0·12] for RIV4; 4·43 μg/mL [0·030-100·0] for eIIV4; and 18·50 μg/mL [0·99-100·0] μg/mL for ccIIV4) and also the HAs from contemporary H3N2 strains than did those elicited by eIIV4 or ccIIV4 (median EC50 to A/Texas/50/2012 HA: 0·037 μg/mL [0·017-0·32] for RIV4; 1·10 μg/mL [0·045-100] for eIIV4; and 12·6 μg/mL [1·8-100] for ccIIV4). Comparison of B-cell receptor sequencing repertoires on day 7 showed that eIIV4 increased the median frequency of canonical egg glycan-targeting B cells (0·20% [95% CI 0·067-0·37] for eIIV4; 0·058% [0·050-0·11] for RIV4; and 0·035% [0-0·062] for ccIIV4), whereas RIV4 vaccination decreased the median frequency of B-cell receptors displaying stereotypical features associated with membrane proximal anchor-targeting antibodies (0·062% [95% CI 0-0·084] for RIV4; 0·12% [0·066-0·16] for eIIV4; and 0·18% [0·016-0·20] for ccIIV4). In exploratory analysis, we characterised the structure of a highly abundant monoclonal antibody that binds to both group 1 and 2 HAs and recognises the HA trimer interface, despite its sequence resembling the stereotypical sequence motif found in membrane-proximal anchor binding antibodies. INTERPRETATION: Although all three licensed seasonal influenza vaccines elicit serological antibody repertoires with indistinguishable features shaped by heavy imprinting, the RIV4 vaccine selectively boosts higher affinity monoclonal antibodies to contemporary strains and elicits greater serum binding potency and breadth, possibly as a consequence of the multivalent structural features of the HA immunogen in this vaccine formulation. Collectively, our findings show advantages of RIV4 vaccines and more generally highlight the benefits of multivalent HA immunogens in promoting higher affinity serum antibody responses. FUNDING: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine, the only widely available treatment to prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria, is produced as 15 mg tablets, and new paediatric formulations are being developed. To inform the optimal primaquine dosing regimen for children, we aimed to determine the efficacy and safety of different primaquine dose strategies in children younger than 15 years. METHODS: We undertook a systematic review (Jan 1, 2000-July 26, 2024) for P vivax efficacy studies with at least one treatment group that was administered primaquine over multiple days, that enrolled children younger than 15 years, that followed up patients for at least 28 days, and that had data available for inclusion by June 30, 2022. Patients were excluded if they were aged 15 years or older, presented with severe malaria, received adjunctive antimalarials within 14 days of diagnosis, commenced primaquine more than 7 days after starting schizontocidal treatment, had a protocol violation in the original study, or were missing data on age, sex, or primaquine dose. Available individual patient data were collated and standardised. To evaluate efficacy, the risk of recurrent P vivax parasitaemia between days 7 and 180 was assessed by time-to-event analysis for different total mg/kg primaquine doses (low total dose of ∼3·5 mg/kg and high total dose of ∼7 mg/kg). To evaluate tolerability and safety, the following were assessed by daily mg/kg primaquine dose (low daily dose of ∼0·25 mg/kg, intermediate daily dose of ∼0·5 mg/kg, and high daily dose of ∼1 mg/kg): gastrointestinal symptoms (vomiting, anorexia, or diarrhoea) on days 5-7, haemoglobin decrease of at least 25% to less than 7g/dL (severe haemolysis), absolute change in haemoglobin from day 0 to days 2-3 or days 5-7, and any serious adverse events within 28 days. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021278085. FINDINGS: In total, 3514 children from 27 studies and 15 countries were included. The cumulative incidence of recurrence by day 180 was 51·4% (95% CI 47·0-55·9) following treatment without primaquine, 16·0% (12·4-20·3) following a low total dose of primaquine, and 10·2% (8·4-12·3) following a high total dose of primaquine. The hazard of recurrent P vivax parasitaemia in children younger than 15 years was reduced following primaquine at low total doses (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·17, 95% CI 0·11-0·25) and high total doses (0·09, 0·07-0·12), compared with no primaquine. In 525 children younger than 5 years, the relative rates of recurrence were also reduced, with an adjusted HR of 0·33 (95% CI 0·18-0·59) for a low total dose and 0·13 (0·08-0·21) for a high total dose of primaquine compared with no primaquine. The rate of recurrence following a high total dose was reduced compared with a low dose in children younger than 15 years (adjusted HR 0·54, 95% CI 0·35-0·85) and children younger than 5 years (0·41, 0·21-0·78). Compared with no primaquine, children treated with any dose of primaquine had a greater risk of gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 after adjustment for confounders, with adjusted risks of 3·9% (95% CI 0-8·6) in children not treated with primaquine, 9·2% (0-18·7) with a low daily dose of primaquine, 6·8% (1·7-12·0) with an intermediate daily dose of primaquine, and 9·6% (4·8-14·3) with a high daily dose of primaquine. In children with 30% or higher glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity, there were few episodes of severe haemolysis following no primaquine (0·4%, 95% CI 0·1-1·5), a low daily dose (0·0%, 0·0-1·6), an intermediate daily dose (0·5%, 0·1-1·4), or a high daily dose (0·7%, 0·2-1·9). Of 15 possibly drug-related serious adverse events in children, two occurred following a low, four following an intermediate, and nine following a high daily dose of primaquine. INTERPRETATION: A high total dose of primaquine was highly efficacious in reducing recurrent P vivax parasitaemia in children compared with a low dose, particularly in children younger than 5 years. In children treated with high and intermediate daily primaquine doses compared with low daily doses, there was no increase in gastrointestinal symptoms or haemolysis (in children with 30% or higher G6PD activity), but there were more serious adverse events. FUNDING: Medicines for Malaria Venture, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

BACKGROUND: Child mortality in Kenya is 41 per 1,000 live births, despite extensive investment in maternal, newborn, and child health interventions. Caregivers' health-seeking for childhood illness is an important determinant of child survival, and delayed healthcare is associated with high child mortality. We explore determinants of health-seeking decisions for childhood illnesses among caregivers in western Kenya. METHODS: We conducted a qualitative study of 88 community members between April 2017 and February 2018 using purposive sampling in an informal urban settlement in Kisumu County, and in rural Siaya County. Key informant interviews, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions were performed. We adopted the Partners for Applied Social Sciences model focusing on factors that influence the decision-making process to seek healthcare for sick infants and children. The discussions were audio-recorded and transcribed. Data management was completed on Nvivo® software. Iterative analysis process was utilized and themes were identified and collated. RESULTS: Our findings reveal four thematic areas: Illness interpretation, the role of social relationship on illness recognition and response, medical pluralism and healthcare access. Participants reported some illnesses are caused by supernatural powers and some by biological factors, and that the illness etiology would determine the health-seeking pathway. It was common to seek consensus from respected community members on the diagnosis and therefore presumed cause and necessary treatment for a child's illness. Medical pluralism was commonly practiced and caregivers would alternate between biomedicine and traditional medicine. Accessibility of healthcare may determine the health seeking pathway. Caregivers unable to afford biomedical care may choose traditional medicine as a cheaper alternative. CONCLUSION: Health seeking behavior was driven by illness interpretation, financial cost associated with healthcare and advice from extended family and community. These findings enrich the perspectives of health education programs to develop health messages that address factors that hinder prompt health care seeking.

Background: The first licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01<inf>E</inf>, confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy. Method(s): Between Sept 28, 2017, and Sept 25, 2018, 1500 children aged 5-17 months were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1) to receive four different RTS,S/AS01<inf>E</inf> regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b open-label clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. Participants in the four RTS,S groups received two full doses at month 0 and month 1 and either full doses at month 2 and month 20 (group R012-20); full doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group R012-14); fractional doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group Fx012-14; early fourth dose); or fractional doses at month 7, month 20, and month 32 (group Fx017-20; delayed third dose). We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months) in more than 36 000 dried blood spot specimens from 1500 participants. To study vaccine effects on time to the first new infection, we defined vaccine efficacy as one minus the hazard ratio (HR; RTS,S vs control) of the first new infection. We performed a post-hoc analysis of vaccine efficacy based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection by month 2. This trial (MAL-095) is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03281291. Finding(s): We observed significant and similar vaccine efficacy (25-43%; 95% CI union 9-53) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01<inf>E</inf> regimens across both follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01<inf>E</inf> regimen significantly reduced the mean number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period by 1.1-1.6 infections (95% CI union 0.6-2.1). Vaccine efficacy against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were infected with malaria (68%; 95% CI 50-80) than in those who were uninfected (37%; 23-48) at the first vaccination (p=0.0053). Interpretation(s): All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved vaccine efficacy in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. Funding(s): GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA, PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

BACKGROUND: The first licensed malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01(E), confers moderate protection against symptomatic disease. Because many malaria infections are asymptomatic, we conducted a large-scale longitudinal parasite genotyping study of samples from a clinical trial exploring how vaccine dosing regimen affects vaccine efficacy. METHODS: Between Sept 28, 2017, and Sept 25, 2018, 1500 children aged 5-17 months were randomly assigned (1:1:1:1:1) to receive four different RTS,S/AS01(E) regimens or a rabies control vaccine in a phase 2b open-label clinical trial in Ghana and Kenya. Participants in the four RTS,S groups received two full doses at month 0 and month 1 and either full doses at month 2 and month 20 (group R012-20); full doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group R012-14); fractional doses at month 2, month 14, month 26, and month 38 (group Fx012-14; early fourth dose); or fractional doses at month 7, month 20, and month 32 (group Fx017-20; delayed third dose). We evaluated the time to the first new genotypically detected infection and the total number of new infections during two follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months) in more than 36 000 dried blood spot specimens from 1500 participants. To study vaccine effects on time to the first new infection, we defined vaccine efficacy as one minus the hazard ratio (HR; RTS,S vs control) of the first new infection. We performed a post-hoc analysis of vaccine efficacy based on malaria infection status at first vaccination and force of infection by month 2. This trial (MAL-095) is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03281291. FINDINGS: We observed significant and similar vaccine efficacy (25-43%; 95% CI union 9-53) against first new infection for all four RTS,S/AS01(E) regimens across both follow-up periods (12 months and 20 months). Each RTS,S/AS01(E) regimen significantly reduced the mean number of new infections in the 20-month follow-up period by 1·1-1·6 infections (95% CI union 0·6-2·1). Vaccine efficacy against first new infection was significantly higher in participants who were infected with malaria (68%; 95% CI 50-80) than in those who were uninfected (37%; 23-48) at the first vaccination (p=0·0053). INTERPRETATION: All tested dosing regimens blocked some infections to a similar degree. Improved vaccine efficacy in participants infected during vaccination could suggest new strategies for highly efficacious malaria vaccine development and implementation. FUNDING: GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals SA, PATH, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research.

BACKGROUND: Microneedle patches (MNPs) have been ranked as the highest global priority innovation for overcoming immunisation barriers in low-income and middle-income countries. This trial aimed to provide the first data on the tolerability, safety, and immunogenicity of a measles and rubella vaccine (MRV)-MNP in children. METHODS: This single-centre, phase 1/2, double-blind, double-dummy, randomised, active-controlled, age de-escalation trial was conducted in The Gambia. To be eligible, all participants had to be healthy according to prespecified criteria, aged 18-40 years for the adult cohort, 15-18 months for toddlers, or 9-10 months for infants, and to be available for visits throughout the follow-up period. The three age cohorts were randomly assigned in a 2:1 ratio (adults) or 1:1 ratio (toddlers and infants) to receive either an MRV-MNP (Micron Biomedical, Atlanta, GA, USA) and a placebo (0·9% sodium chloride) subcutaneous injection, or a placebo-MNP and an MRV subcutaneous injection (MRV-SC; Serum Institute of India, Pune, India). Unmasked staff ransomly assigned the participants using an online application, and they prepared visually identical preparations of the MRV-MNP or placebo-MNP and MRV-SC or placebo-SC, but were not involved in collecting endpoint data. Staff administering the study interventions, participants, parents, and study staff assessing trial endpoints were masked to treatment allocation. The safety population consists of all vaccinated participants, and analysis was conducted according to route of MRV administration, irrespective of subsequent protocol deviations. The immunogenicity population consisted of all vaccinated participants who had a baseline and day 42 visit result available, and who had no protocol deviations considered to substantially affect the immunogenicity endpoints. Solicited local and systemic adverse events were collected for 14 days following vaccination. Unsolicited adverse events were collected to day 180. Age de-escalation between cohorts was based on the review of the safety data to day 14 by an independent data monitoring committee. Serum neutralising antibodies to measles and rubella were measured at baseline, day 42, and day 180. Analysis was descriptive and included safety events, seroprotection and seroconversion rates, and geometric mean antibody concentrations. The trial was registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry PACTR202008836432905, and is complete. FINDINGS: Recruitment took place between May 18, 2021, and May 27, 2022. 45 adults, 120 toddlers, and 120 infants were randomly allocated and vaccinated. There were no safety concerns in the first 14 days following vaccination in either adults or toddlers, and age de-escalation proceeded accordingly. In infants, 93% (52/56; 95% CI 83·0-97·2) seroconverted to measles and 100% (58/58; 93·8-100) seroconverted to rubella following MRV-MNP administration, while 90% (52/58; 79·2-95·2) and 100% (59/59; 93·9-100) seroconverted to measles and rubella respectively, following MRV-SC. Induration at the MRV-MNP application site was the most frequent local reaction occurring in 46 (77%) of 60 toddlers and 39 (65%) of 60 infants. Related unsolicited adverse events, most commonly discolouration at the application site, were reported in 35 (58%) of 60 toddlers and 57 (95%) of 60 infants that had received the MRV-MNP. All local reactions were mild. There were no related severe or serious adverse events. INTERPRETATION: The safety and immunogenicity data support the accelerated development of the MRV-MNP. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Unprecedented heat waves can affect all persons, but some are more sensitive to the effects of heat, including children and adults with underlying health conditions, pregnant women, and outdoor workers. Many regions of the United States experienced record-breaking high temperatures in 2023, with populations exposed to extremely high temperatures for prolonged periods. CDC examined emergency department (ED) visits associated with heat-related illness (HRI) from the National Syndromic Surveillance Program and compared daily HRI ED visit rates during the warm-season months (May-September) of 2023 with those during 2018-2022. In the 2023 warm-season months, daily HRI ED visit rates peaked in several regions and remained elevated for a prolonged duration. More males than females sought care in EDs for HRI, especially males aged 18-64 years. CDC issued multiple public health alerts using the Epidemic Information Exchange system to bring attention to increases in ED utilization for HRI. Deaths and illnesses associated with heat exposure are a continuing public health concern as climate change results in longer, hotter, and more frequent episodes of extreme heat. Near real-time monitoring of weather conditions and adverse health outcomes can guide public health practitioners' timing of risk communication and implementation of prevention measures associated with extreme heat.

INTRODUCTION: the National Primary Health Care Development Agency, African Field Epidemiology Network, United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation are implementing a Routine Immunization (RI) Module as part of their Routine Health Data Management System based on the 2013 - 2015 Accountability Framework for RI in Nigeria. To inform planning and evidence-based decision making, a data management needs assessment was conducted in Bauchi state which was one of the states selected for the deployment of the DHIS2 RI module. METHODS: desk reviews were conducted, and a semi-structured questionnaire was administered in four Local Government Areas (LGAs) in Bauchi state that were selected based on the initial evaluation of the performance of all 20 Bauchi LGAs. Ganjuwa and Shira were selected as high-performing LGAs and Alkaleri and Bogoro as low-performing LGAs. Four Health Facilities (HF) were selected in each LGA based on rural or urban classification, type of HFs (private or public), security and accessibility. RESULTS: local Immunization Officers (LIOs) prepare monthly reports in high-performing LGAs, and Community Health Care workers are mostly (69%) responsible for report compilation at the HFs. Shira and Alkaleri met 77% and 44% of training indicator targets, respectively, in the previous 12 months. Data recording and reporting was the type of training received the most by health facility personnel. Functioning refrigerators were in all visited LGAs, working thermometer and updated temperature monitoring charts were available in all the cold chain stores. However, no health facility reported having available computers for data-related activities. CONCLUSION: this assessment provided an improved understanding of the Bauchi state Routine Health Data Management System and informed the content of the state-wide scale-up.

BACKGROUND: Enteric fever, a systemic infection caused by Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi A, remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries. Enteric fever is preventable through the provision of clean water and adequate sanitation and can be successfully treated with antibiotics. However, high levels of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) compromise the effectiveness of treatment. We provide estimates of the prevalence of AMR S Typhi and S Paratyphi A in 75 endemic countries, including 30 locations without data. METHODS: We used a Bayesian spatiotemporal modelling framework to estimate the percentage of multidrug resistance (MDR), fluoroquinolone non-susceptibility (FQNS), and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections for 1403 administrative level one districts in 75 endemic countries from 1990 to 2019. We incorporated data from a comprehensive systematic review, public health surveillance networks, and large multicountry studies on enteric fever. Estimates of the prevalence of AMR and the number of AMR infections (based on enteric fever incidence estimates by the Global Burden of Diseases study) were produced at the country, super-region, and total endemic area level for each year of the study. FINDINGS: We collated data from 601 sources, comprising 184 225 isolates of S Typhi and S Paratyphi A, covering 45 countries over 30 years. We identified a decline of MDR S Typhi in south Asia and southeast Asia, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, the overall prevalence increased from 6·0% (95% uncertainty interval 4·3-8·0) in 1990 to 72·7% (67·7-77·3) in 2019. Starting from low levels in 1990, the prevalence of FQNS S Typhi increased rapidly, reaching 95·2% (91·4-97·7) in south Asia in 2019. This corresponded to 2·5 million (1·5-3·8) MDR S Typhi infections and 7·4 million (4·7-11·3) FQNS S Typhi infections in endemic countries in 2019. The prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant S Typhi remained low across the whole endemic area over the study period, except for Pakistan where prevalence of third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi reached 61·0% (58·0-63·8) in 2019. For S Paratyphi A, we estimated low prevalence of MDR and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in all endemic countries, but a drastic increase of FQNS, which reached 95·0% (93·7-96·1; 3·5 million [2·2-5·6] infections) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a comprehensive and detailed analysis of the prevalence of MDR, FQNS, and third-generation cephalosporin resistance in S Typhi and S Paratyphi A infections in endemic countries, spanning the last 30 years. Our analysis highlights the increasing levels of AMR in this preventable infection and serves as a resource to guide urgently needed public health interventions, such as improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene and typhoid fever vaccination campaigns. FUNDING: Fleming Fund, UK Department of Health and Social Care; Wellcome Trust; and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been engineered to improve the genetic stability of Sabin oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and reduce the emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. This trial aimed to provide key safety and immunogenicity data required for nOPV2 licensure and WHO prequalification. METHODS: This phase 3 trial recruited infants aged 18 to <52 weeks and young children aged 1 to <5 years in The Gambia. Infants randomly assigned to receive one or two doses of one of three lots of nOPV2 or one lot of bivalent OPV (bOPV). Young children were randomised to receive two doses of nOPV2 lot 1 or bOPV. The primary immunogenicity objective was to assess lot-to-lot equivalence of the three nOPV2 lots based on one-dose type 2 poliovirus neutralising antibody seroconversion rates in infants. Equivalence was declared if the 95% CI for the three pairwise rate differences was within the -10% to 10% equivalence margin. Tolerability and safety were assessed based on the rates of solicited adverse events to 7 days, unsolicited adverse events to 28 days, and serious adverse events to 3 months post-dose. Stool poliovirus excretion was examined. The trial was registered as PACTR202010705577776 and is completed. FINDINGS: Between February and October, 2021, 2345 infants and 600 young children were vaccinated. 2272 (96·9%) were eligible for inclusion in the post-dose one per-protocol population. Seroconversion rates ranged from 48·9% to 49·2% across the three lots. The minimum lower bound of the 95% CIs for the pairwise differences in seroconversion rates between lots was -5·8%. The maximum upper bound was 5·4%. Equivalence was therefore shown. Of those seronegative at baseline, 143 (85·6%) of 167 (95% CI 79·4-90·6) infants and 54 (83·1%) of 65 (71·7-91·2) young children seroconverted over the two-dose nOPV2 schedule. The post-two-dose seroprotection rates, including participants who were both seronegative and seropositive at baseline, were 604 (92·9%) of 650 (95% CI 90·7-94·8) in infants and 276 (95·5%) of 289 (92·4-97·6) in young children. No safety concerns were identified. 7 days post-dose one, 78 (41·7%) of 187 (95% CI 34·6-49·1) infants were excreting the type 2 poliovirus. INTERPRETATION: nOPV2 was immunogenic and safe in infants and young children in The Gambia. The data support the licensure and WHO prequalification of nOPV2. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: The Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network programme undertakes post-mortem minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS), together with collection of ante-mortem clinical information, to investigate causes of childhood deaths across multiple countries. We aimed to evaluate the overall contribution of pneumonia in the causal pathway to death and the causative pathogens of fatal pneumonia in children aged 1-59 months enrolled in the CHAMPS Network. METHODS: In this observational study we analysed deaths occurring between Dec 16, 2016, and Dec 31, 2022, in the CHAMPS Network across six countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and one in South Asia (Bangladesh). A standardised approach of MITS was undertaken on decedents within 24-72 h of death. Diagnostic tests included blood culture, multi-organism targeted nucleic acid amplifications tests (NAATs) of blood and lung tissue, and histopathology examination of various organ tissue samples. An interdisciplinary expert panel at each site reviewed case data to attribute the cause of death and pathogenesis thereof on the basis of WHO-recommended reporting standards. FINDINGS: Pneumonia was attributed in the causal pathway of death in 455 (40·6%) of 1120 decedents, with a median age at death of 9 (IQR 4-19) months. Causative pathogens were identified in 377 (82·9%) of 455 pneumonia deaths, and multiple pathogens were implicated in 218 (57·8%) of 377 deaths. 306 (67·3%) of 455 deaths occurred in the community or within 72 h of hospital admission (presumed to be community-acquired pneumonia), with the leading bacterial pathogens being Streptococcus pneumoniae (108 [35·3%]), Klebsiella pneumoniae (78 [25·5%]), and non-typeable Haemophilus influenzae (37 [12·1%]). 149 (32·7%) deaths occurred 72 h or more after hospital admission (presumed to be hospital-acquired pneumonia), with the most common pathogens being K pneumoniae (64 [43·0%]), Acinetobacter baumannii (19 [12·8%]), S pneumoniae (15 [10·1%]), and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (15 [10·1%]). Overall, viruses were implicated in 145 (31·9%) of 455 pneumonia-related deaths, including 54 (11·9%) of 455 attributed to cytomegalovirus and 29 (6·4%) of 455 attributed to respiratory syncytial virus. INTERPRETATION: Pneumonia contributed to 40·6% of all childhood deaths in this analysis. The use of post-mortem MITS enabled biological ascertainment of the cause of death in the majority (82·9%) of childhood deaths attributed to pneumonia, with more than one pathogen being commonly implicated in the same case. The prominent role of K pneumoniae, non-typable H influenzae, and S pneumoniae highlight the need to review empirical management guidelines for management of very severe pneumonia in low-income and middle-income settings, and the need for research into new or improved vaccines against these pathogens. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is a leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide. However, accurate estimates of malaria prevalence and causality among patients who die at the country level are lacking due to the limited specificity of diagnostic tools used to attribute etiologies. Accurate estimates are crucial for prioritizing interventions and resources aimed at reducing malaria-related mortality. METHODS: Seven Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) Network sites collected comprehensive data on stillbirths and children <5 years, using minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS). A DeCoDe (Determination of Cause of Death) panel employed standardized protocols for assigning underlying, intermediate, and immediate causes of death, integrating sociodemographic, clinical, laboratory (including extensive microbiology, histopathology, and malaria testing), and verbal autopsy data. Analyses were conducted to ascertain the strength of evidence for cause of death (CoD), describe factors associated with malaria-related deaths, estimate malaria-specific mortality, and assess the proportion of preventable deaths. FINDINGS: Between December 3, 2016, and December 31, 2022, 2673 deaths underwent MITS and had a CoD attributed from four CHAMPS sites with at least 1 malaria-attributed death. No malaria-attributable deaths were documented among 891 stillbirths or 924 neonatal deaths, therefore this analysis concentrates on the remaining 858 deaths among children aged 1-59 months. Malaria was in the causal chain for 42.9% (126/294) of deaths from Sierra Leone, 31.4% (96/306) in Kenya, 18.2% (36/198) in Mozambique, 6.7% (4/60) in Mali, and 0.3% (1/292) in South Africa. Compared to non-malaria related deaths, malaria-related deaths skewed towards older infants and children (p<0.001), with 71.0% among ages 12-59 months. Malaria was the sole infecting pathogen in 184 (70.2%) of malaria-attributed deaths, whereas bacterial and viral co-infections were identified in the causal pathway in 24·0% and 12.2% of cases, respectively. Malnutrition was found at a similar level in the causal pathway of both malaria (26.7%) and non-malaria (30.7%, p=0.256) deaths. Less than two-thirds (164/262; 62.6%) of malaria deaths had received antimalarials prior to death. Nearly all (98·9%) malaria-related deaths were deemed preventable. INTERPRETATION: Malaria remains a significant cause of childhood mortality in the CHAMPS malaria-endemic sites. The high bacterial co-infection prevalence among malaria deaths underscores the potential benefits of antibiotics for severe malaria patients. Compared to non-malaria deaths, many of malaria-attributed deaths are preventable through accessible malaria control measures. FUNDING: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1126780].

BACKGROUND: Novel oral polio vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) has been used to interrupt circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks following its WHO emergency use listing. This study reports data on the safety and immunogenicity of nOPV2 over two rounds of a campaign in The Gambia. METHODS: This observational cohort study collected baseline symptoms (vomiting, diarrhoea, irritability, reduced feeding, and reduced activity) and axillary temperature from children aged 6 weeks to 59 months in The Gambia before a series of two rounds of a nOPV2 campaign that took place on Nov 20-26, 2021, and March 19-22, 2022. Serum and stool samples were collected from a subset of the participants. The same symptoms were re-assessed during the week following each dose of nOPV2. Stool samples were collected on days 7 and 28, and serum was collected on day 28 following each dose. Adverse events, including adverse events of special interest, were documented for 28 days after each campaign round. Serum neutralising antibodies were measured by microneutralisation assay, and stool poliovirus excretion was measured by real-time RT-PCR. FINDINGS: Of the 5635 children eligible for the study, 5504 (97·7%) received at least one dose of nOPV2. There was no increase in axillary temperature or in any of the baseline symptoms following either rounds of the campaigns. There were no adverse events of special interest and no other safety signals of concern. Poliovirus type 2 seroconversion rates were 70% (95% CI 62 to 78; 87 of 124 children) following one dose of nOPV2 and 91% (85 to 95; 113 of 124 children) following two doses. Poliovirus excretion on day 7 was lower after the second round (162 of 459 samples; 35·3%, 95% CI 31·1 to 39·8) than after the first round (292 of 658 samples; 44·4%, 40·6 to 48·2) of the campaign (difference -9·1%; 95% CI -14·8 to -3·3), showing the induction of mucosal immunity. INTERPRETATION: In a campaign in west Africa, nOPV2 was well tolerated and safe. High rates of seroconversion and evidence of mucosal immunity support the licensure and WHO prequalification of this vaccine. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Klebsiella pneumoniae is an important cause of nosocomial and community-acquired pneumonia and sepsis in children, and antibiotic-resistant K pneumoniae is a growing public health threat. We aimed to characterise child mortality associated with this pathogen in seven high-mortality settings. METHODS: We analysed Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) data on the causes of deaths in children younger than 5 years and stillbirths in sites located in seven countries across sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Sierra Leone, and South Africa) and south Asia (Bangladesh) from Dec 9, 2016, to Dec 31, 2021. CHAMPS sites conduct active surveillance for deaths in catchment populations and following reporting of an eligible death or stillbirth seek consent for minimally invasive tissue sampling followed by extensive aetiological testing (microbiological, molecular, and pathological); cases are reviewed by expert panels to assign immediate, intermediate, and underlying causes of death. We reported on susceptibility to antibiotics for which at least 30 isolates had been tested, and excluded data on antibiotics for which susceptibility testing is not recommended for Klebsiella spp due to lack of clinical activity (eg, penicillin and ampicillin). FINDINGS: Among 2352 child deaths with cause of death assigned, 497 (21%, 95% CI 20-23) had K pneumoniae in the causal chain of death; 100 (20%, 17-24) had K pneumoniae as the underlying cause. The frequency of K pneumoniae in the causal chain was highest in children aged 1-11 months (30%, 95% CI 26-34; 144 of 485 deaths) and 12-23 months (28%, 22-34; 63 of 225 deaths); frequency by site ranged from 6% (95% CI 3-11; 11 of 184 deaths) in Bangladesh to 52% (44-61; 71 of 136 deaths) in Ethiopia. K pneumoniae was in the causal chain for 450 (22%, 95% CI 20-24) of 2023 deaths that occurred in health facilities and 47 (14%, 11-19) of 329 deaths in the community. The most common clinical syndromes among deaths with K pneumoniae in the causal chain were sepsis (44%, 95% CI 40-49; 221 of 2352 deaths), sepsis in conjunction with pneumonia (19%, 16-23; 94 of 2352 deaths), and pneumonia (16%, 13-20; 80 of 2352 deaths). Among K pneumoniae isolates tested, 121 (84%) of 144 were resistant to ceftriaxone and 80 (75%) of 106 to gentamicin. INTERPRETATION: K pneumoniae substantially contributed to deaths in the first 2 years of life across multiple high-mortality settings, and resistance to antibiotics used for sepsis treatment was common. Improved strategies are needed to rapidly identify and appropriately treat children who might be infected with this pathogen. These data suggest a potential impact of developing and using effective K pneumoniae vaccines in reducing neonatal, infant, and child deaths globally. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: The novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 (nOPV2) is now authorised by a WHO emergency use listing and widely distributed to interrupt outbreaks of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2. As protection of vulnerable populations, particularly young infants, could be facilitated by shorter intervals between the two recommended doses, we aimed to assess safety and non-inferiority of immunogenicity of nOPV2 in 1-week, 2-week, and 4-week schedules. METHODS: In this phase 3, open-label, randomised trial, healthy, full-term, infants aged 6-8 weeks from a hospital or a clinic in the Dominican Republic were randomly allocated (1:1:1 ratio) using a pre-prepared, computer-generated randomisation schedule to three groups to receive two doses of nOPV2 immunisations with a 1-week interval (group A), 2-week interval (group B), or 4-week interval (group C). The nOPV2 vaccine was given at a 0·1 mL dose and contained at least 10(5) 50% cell culture infective dose. Neutralising antibodies against poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3 were measured before each immunisation and 4 weeks after the second dose. The primary outcome was the type 2 seroconversion rate 28 days after the second dose, and the non-inferiority margin was defined as a lower bound 95% CI of greater than -10%. Safety and reactogenicity were assessed through diary cards completed by the parent or guardian. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05033561. FINDINGS: We enrolled 905 infants between Dec 16, 2021, and March 28, 2022. 872 infants were included in the per-protocol analyses: 289 in group A, 293 in group B, and 290 in group C. Type 2 seroconversion rates were 87·5% (95% CI 83·2 to 91·1) in group A (253 of 289 participants), 91·8% (88·1 to 94·7) in group B (269 of 293 participants), and 95·5% (92·5 to 97·6) in group C (277 of 290 participants). Non-inferiority was shown for group B compared with group C (difference in rates -3·7; 95% CI -7·9 to 0·3), but not for group A compared with group C (-8·0; -12·7 to -3·6). 4 weeks after the second nOPV2 dose, type 2 neutralising antibodies increased in all three groups such that over 95% of each group was seroprotected against polio type 2, although final geometric mean titres tended to be highest with longer intervals between doses. Immunisation with nOPV2 was well tolerated with no causal association to vaccination of any severe or serious adverse event; one death from septic shock during the study was unrelated to the vaccine. INTERPRETATION: Two nOPV2 doses administered 1 week or 2 weeks apart from age 6 weeks to 8 weeks were safe and immunogenic. Immune responses after a 2-week interval were non-inferior to those after the standard 4-week interval, but marked responses after a 1-week interval suggest that schedules with an over 1-week interval can be used to provide flexibility to campaigns to improve coverage and hasten protection during circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: Severe anaemia is associated with high in-hospital mortality among young children. In malaria-endemic areas, surviving children also have an increased risk of mortality or readmission after hospital discharge. We conducted a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to determine the efficacy of monthly post-discharge malaria chemoprevention in children recovering from severe anaemia. METHODS: This analysis was conducted according to PRISMA-IPD guidelines. We searched multiple databases on Aug 28, 2023, without date or language restrictions, for randomised controlled trials comparing monthly post-discharge malaria chemoprevention with placebo or standard of care among children (aged <15 years) admitted with severe anaemia in malaria-endemic Africa. Trials using daily or weekly malaria prophylaxis were not eligible. The investigators from all eligible trials shared pseudonymised datasets, which were standardised and merged for analysis. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality during the intervention period. Analyses were performed in the modified intention-to-treat population, including all randomly assigned participants who contributed to the endpoint. Fixed-effects two-stage meta-analysis of risk ratios (RRs) was used to generate pooled effect estimates for mortality. Recurrent time-to-event data (readmissions or clinic visits) were analysed using one-stage mixed-effects Prentice-Williams-Peterson total-time models to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42022308791. FINDINGS: Our search identified 91 articles, of which 78 were excluded by title and abstract, and a further ten did not meet eligibility criteria. Three double-blind, placebo-controlled trials, including 3663 children with severe anaemia, were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis; 3507 (95·7%) contributed to the modified intention-to-treat analysis. Participants received monthly sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine until the end of the malaria transmission season (mean 3·1 courses per child [range 1-6]; n=1085; The Gambia), monthly artemether-lumefantrine given at the end of weeks 4 and 8 post discharge (n=1373; Malawi), or monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine given at the end of weeks 2, 6, and 10 post discharge (n=1049; Uganda and Kenya). During the intervention period, post-discharge malaria chemoprevention was associated with a 77% reduction in mortality (RR 0·23 [95% CI 0·08-0·70], p=0·0094, I(2)=0%) and a 55% reduction in all-cause readmissions (HR 0·45 [95% CI 0·36-0·56], p<0·0001) compared with placebo. The protective effect was restricted to the intervention period and was not sustained after the direct pharmacodynamic effect of the drugs had waned. The small number of trials limited our ability to assess heterogeneity, its sources, and publication bias. INTERPRETATION: In malaria-endemic Africa, post-discharge malaria chemoprevention reduces mortality and readmissions in recently discharged children recovering from severe anaemia. Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention could be a valuable strategy for the management of this group at high risk. Future research should focus on methods of delivery, options to prolong the protection duration, other hospitalised groups at high risk, and interventions targeting non-malarial causes of post-discharge morbidity. FUNDING: The Research-Council of Norway and the Bill-&-Melinda-Gates-Foundation through the Worldwide-Antimalarial-Research-Network.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 has extensively spread in cities and rural communities, and studies are needed to quantify exposure in the population. We report seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in two well-characterized populations in Kenya at two time points. These data inform the design and delivery of public health mitigation measures. METHODS: Leveraging on existing population based infectious disease surveillance (PBIDS) in two demographically diverse settings, a rural site in western Kenya in Asembo, Siaya County, and an urban informal settlement in Kibera, Nairobi County, we set up a longitudinal cohort of randomly selected households with serial sampling of all consenting household members in March and June/July 2021. Both sites included 1,794 and 1,638 participants in the March and June/July 2021, respectively. Individual seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was expressed as a percentage of the seropositive among the individuals tested, accounting for household clustering and weighted by the PBIDS age and sex distribution. RESULTS: Overall weighted individual seroprevalence increased from 56.2% (95%CI: 52.1, 60.2%) in March 2021 to 63.9% (95%CI: 59.5, 68.0%) in June 2021 in Kibera. For Asembo, the seroprevalence almost doubled from 26.0% (95%CI: 22.4, 30.0%) in March 2021 to 48.7% (95%CI: 44.3, 53.2%) in July 2021. Seroprevalence was highly heterogeneous by age and geography in these populations-higher seroprevalence was observed in the urban informal settlement (compared to the rural setting), and children aged <10 years had the lowest seroprevalence in both sites. Only 1.2% and 1.6% of the study participants reported receipt of at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine by the second round of serosurvey-none by the first round. CONCLUSIONS: In these two populations, SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence increased in the first 16 months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya. It is important to prioritize additional mitigation measures, such as vaccine distribution, in crowded and low socioeconomic settings.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine is used to eliminate Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites, but its optimal dosing regimen remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of different primaquine dosing regimens to prevent P vivax recurrence. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, and if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days, where primaquine was commenced within 7 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. We assessed the effects of total dose and duration of primaquine regimens on the rate of first P vivax recurrence between day 7 and day 180 by Cox's proportional hazards regression (efficacy analysis). The effect of primaquine daily dose on gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 was assessed by modified Poisson regression (tolerability analysis). The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 23 studies with patient-level data from 6879 patients from 16 countries were included in the efficacy analysis. At day 180, the risk of recurrence was 51·0% (95% CI 48·2-53·9) in 1470 patients treated without primaquine, 19·3% (16·9-21·9) in 2569 patients treated with a low total dose of primaquine (approximately 3·5 mg/kg), and 8·1% (7·0-9·4) in 2811 patients treated with a high total dose of primaquine (approximately 7 mg/kg), regardless of primaquine treatment duration. Compared with treatment without primaquine, the rate of P vivax recurrence was lower after treatment with low-dose primaquine (adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17-0·27; p<0·0001) and high-dose primaquine (0·10, 0·08-0·12; p<0·0001). High-dose primaquine had greater efficacy than low-dose primaquine in regions with high and low relapse periodicity (ie, the time from initial infection to vivax relapse). 16 studies with patient-level data from 5609 patients from ten countries were included in the tolerability analysis. Gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 were reported by 4·0% (95% CI 0·0-8·7) of 893 patients treated without primaquine, 6·2% (0·5-12·0) of 737 patients treated with a low daily dose of primaquine (approximately 0·25 mg/kg per day), 5·9% (1·8-10·1) of 1123 patients treated with an intermediate daily dose (approximately 0·5 mg/kg per day) and 10·9% (5·7-16·1) of 1178 patients treated with a high daily dose (approximately 1 mg/kg per day). 20 of 23 studies included in the efficacy analysis and 15 of 16 in the tolerability analysis had a low or unclear risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: Increasing the total dose of primaquine from 3·5 mg/kg to 7 mg/kg can reduce P vivax recurrences by more than 50% in most endemic regions, with a small associated increase in gastrointestinal symptoms. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medicines for Malaria Venture.

Stillbirth, one of the most common adverse pregnancy outcomes, is especially prevalent in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). Understanding the causes of stillbirth is crucial to developing effective interventions. In this commentary, investigators working across several LMICs discuss the most useful investigations to determine causes of stillbirths in LMICs. Useful data were defined as 1) feasible to obtain accurately and 2) informative to determine or help eliminate a cause of death. Recently, new tools for LMIC settings to determine cause of death in stillbirths, including minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) - a method using needle biopsies to obtain internal organ tissue from deceased fetuses for histology and pathogen identification in those tissues have become available. While placental histology has been available for some time, the development of the Amsterdam Criteria in 2016 has provided a useful framework to categorize placental lesions. The authors recommend focusing on the clinical history, the placental evaluation, the external examination of the fetus, and, when available, fetal tissue obtained by MITS, especially of the lung (focused on histology and microbiology) and brain/cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) and fetal blood (focused on microbiological analysis). The authors recognize that this approach may not identify some causes of stillbirth, including some genetic abnormalities and internal organ anomalies, but believe it will identify the most common causes of stillbirth, and most of the preventable causes.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine radical cure is used to treat dormant liver-stage parasites and prevent relapsing Plasmodium vivax malaria but is limited by concerns of haemolysis. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the haematological safety of different primaquine regimens for P vivax radical cure. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days where primaquine was commenced within 3 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine), and if they recorded haemoglobin or haematocrit concentrations on day 0. We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. The main outcome was haemoglobin reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL by day 14. Haemoglobin concentration changes between day 0 and days 2-3 and between day 0 and days 5-7 were assessed by mixed-effects linear regression for patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) activity of (1) 30% or higher and (2) between 30% and less than 70%. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470 and CRD42022303680. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 18 studies with patient-level data from 5462 patients from 15 countries were included in the analysis. A haemoglobin reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL occurred in one (0·1%) of 1208 patients treated without primaquine, none of 893 patients treated with a low daily dose of primaquine (<0·375 mg/kg per day), five (0·3%) of 1464 patients treated with an intermediate daily dose (0·375 mg/kg per day to <0·75 mg/kg per day), and six (0·5%) of 1269 patients treated with a high daily dose (≥0·75 mg/kg per day). The covariate-adjusted mean estimated haemoglobin changes at days 2-3 were -0·6 g/dL (95% CI -0·7 to -0·5), -0·7 g/dL (-0·8 to -0·5), -0·6 g/dL (-0·7 to -0·4), and -0·5 g/dL (-0·7 to -0·4), respectively. In 51 patients with G6PD activity between 30% and less than 70%, the adjusted mean haemoglobin concentration on days 2-3 decreased as G6PD activity decreased; two patients in this group who were treated with a high daily dose of primaquine had a reduction of more than 25% to a concentration of less than 7 g/dL. 17 of 18 included studies had a low or unclear risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: Treatment of patients with G6PD activity of 30% or higher with 0·25-0·5 mg/kg per day primaquine regimens and patients with G6PD activity of 70% or higher with 0·25-1 mg/kg per day regimens were associated with similar risks of haemolysis to those in patients treated without primaquine, supporting the safe use of primaquine radical cure at these doses. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medicines for Malaria Venture.

BACKGROUND: Most childhood deaths globally are considered preventable through high-quality clinical care, which includes adherence to clinical care recommendations. Our objective was to describe adherence to World Health Organization recommendations for the management of leading causes of death among children. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study examining clinical data for children aged 1-59 months who were hospitalized and died in a Child Health and Mortality Prevention Surveillance (CHAMPS) catchment, December 2016-June 2021. Catchment areas included: Baliakandi and Faridpur, Bangladesh; Kersa, Haramaya, and Harar, Ethiopia; Kisumu and Siaya, Kenya; Bamako, Mali; Manhiça and Quelimane, Mozambique; Makeni, Sierra Leone; Soweto, South Africa. We reviewed medical records of those who died from lower respiratory tract infections, sepsis, malnutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases to determine the proportion who received recommended treatments and compared adherence by hospitalization duration. FINDINGS: CHAMPS enrolled 460 hospitalized children who died from the leading causes (median age 12 months, 53.0% male). Median hospital admission was 31 h. There were 51.0% (n = 127/249) of children who died from lower respiratory tract infections received supplemental oxygen. Administration of intravenous fluids for sepsis (15.9%, n = 36/226) and supplemental feeds for malnutrition (14.0%, n = 18/129) were uncommon. There were 51.4% (n = 55/107) of those who died from malaria received antimalarials. Of the 80 children who died from diarrheal diseases, 76.2% received intravenous fluids. Those admitted for ≥24 h more commonly received antibiotics for lower respiratory tract infections and sepsis, supplemental feeds for malnutrition, and intravenous fluids for sepsis than those admitted <24 h. INTERPRETATION: Provision of recommended clinical care for leading causes of death among young children was suboptimal. Further studies are needed to understand the reasons for deficits in clinical care recommendation adherence. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

During April 30-August 4, 2023, smoke originating from wildfires in Canada affected most of the contiguous United States. CDC used National Syndromic Surveillance Program data to assess numbers and percentages of asthma-associated emergency department (ED) visits on days with wildfire smoke, compared with days without wildfire smoke. Wildfire smoke days were defined as days when concentrations of particulate matter (particles generally ≤2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) (PM(2.5)) triggered an Air Quality Index ≥101, corresponding to the air quality categorization, "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups." Changes in asthma-associated ED visits were assessed across U.S. Department of Health and Human Services regions and by age. Overall, asthma-associated ED visits were 17% higher than expected during the 19 days with wildfire smoke that occurred during the study period; larger increases were observed in regions that experienced higher numbers of continuous wildfire smoke days and among persons aged 5-17 and 18-64 years. These results can help guide emergency response planning and public health communication strategies, especially in U.S. regions where wildfire smoke exposure was previously uncommon.

BACKGROUND: Key population HIV programmes in sub-Saharan Africa require epidemiological information to ensure equitable and universal access to effective services. We aimed to consolidate and harmonise survey data among female sex workers, men who have sex with men, people who inject drugs, and transgender people to estimate key population size, HIV prevalence, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage for countries in mainland sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Key population size estimates, HIV prevalence, and ART coverage data from 39 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 2010 and 2023 were collated from existing databases and verified against source documents. We used Bayesian mixed-effects spatial regression to model urban key population size estimates as a proportion of the gender-matched, year-matched, and area-matched population aged 15-49 years. We modelled subnational key population HIV prevalence and ART coverage with age-matched, gender-matched, year-matched, and province-matched total population estimates as predictors. FINDINGS: We extracted 2065 key population size data points, 1183 HIV prevalence data points, and 259 ART coverage data points. Across national urban populations, a median of 1·65% (IQR 1·35-1·91) of adult cisgender women were female sex workers, 0·89% (0·77-0·95) were men who have sex with men, 0·32% (0·31-0·34) were men who injected drugs, and 0·10% (0·06-0·12) were women who were transgender. HIV prevalence among key populations was, on average, four to six times higher than matched total population prevalence, and ART coverage was correlated with, but lower than, the total population ART coverage with wide heterogeneity in relative ART coverage across studies. Across sub-Saharan Africa, key populations were estimated as comprising 1·2% (95% credible interval 0·9-1·6) of the total population aged 15-49 years but 6·1% (4·5-8·2) of people living with HIV. INTERPRETATION: Key populations in sub-Saharan Africa experience higher HIV prevalence and lower ART coverage, underscoring the need for focused prevention and treatment services. In 2024, limited data availability and heterogeneity constrain precise estimates for programming and monitoring trends. Strengthening key population surveys and routine data within national HIV strategic information systems would support more precise estimates. FUNDING: UNAIDS, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and US National Institutes of Health.

Background: The polio eradication endgame continues to increase in complexity.  With polio cases caused by wild poliovirus type 1 and circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses of all three types (1, 2 and 3) reported in 2022, the number, formulation, and use of poliovirus vaccines poses challenges for national immunization programs and vaccine suppliers.  Prior poliovirus transmission modeling of globally-coordinated type-specific cessation of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) assumed creation of Sabin monovalent OPV (mOPV) stockpiles for emergencies and explored the potential need to restart OPV if the world reached a specified cumulative threshold number of cases after OPV cessation. Methods:  We document the actual experience of type 2 OPV (OPV2) cessation and reconsider prior modeling assumptions related to OPV restart.  We develop updated decision trees of national immunization options for poliovirus vaccines considering different possibilities for OPV restart. Results:  While OPV restart represented a hypothetical situation for risk management and contingency planning to support the 2013-2018 Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) Strategic Plan, the actual epidemiological experience since OPV2 cessation raises questions about what, if any, trigger(s) could lead to restarting the use of OPV2 in routine immunization and/or plans for potential future restart of type 1 and 3 OPV after their respective cessation.  The emergency use listing of a genetically stabilized novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) and continued evaluation of nOPV for types 1 and/or 3 add further complexity by increasing the combinations of possible OPV formulations for OPV restart.  Conclusions: Expanding on a 2019 discussion of the logistical challenges and implications of restarting OPV, we find a complex structure of the many options and many issues related to OPV restart decisions and policies as of early 2023.  We anticipate many challenges for forecasting prospective vaccine supply needs during the polio endgame due to increasing potential combinations of poliovirus vaccine choices.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, a large petroleum leak contaminated a water source that supplied drinking water to military and civilians in Oahu, Hawaii. METHODS: We conducted an Assessment of Chemical Exposures (ACE) survey and supplemented that information with complementary data sources: (1) poison center caller records; (2) emergency department visit data; and (3) a key informant questionnaire. RESULTS: Among 2,289 survey participants, 86% reported ≥1 new or worsening symptom, 75% of which lasted ≥30 days, and 37% sought medical care. Most (n = 1,653, 72%) reported new mental health symptoms. Among equally observable symptoms across age groups, proportions of children ≤2 years experiencing vomiting, runny nose, skin rashes, and coughing (33, 46, 56, and 35%, respectively) were higher than other age groups. Poison center calls increased the first 2 weeks after the contamination, while emergency department visits increased in early December 2021. Key informant interviews revealed themes of lack of support, mental health symptoms, and long-term health impact concerns. DISCUSSION: This event led to widespread exposure to petroleum products and negatively affected thousands of people. Follow-up health surveys or interventions should give special consideration to longer-term physical and mental health, especially children due to their unique sensitivity to environmental exposures.

We urgently need answers to basic epidemiological questions regarding SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnant and postpartum women and its effect on their newborns. While many national registries, health facilities, and research groups are collecting relevant data, we need a collaborative and methodologically rigorous approach to better combine these data and address knowledge gaps, especially those related to rare outcomes. We propose that using a sequential, prospective meta-analysis (PMA) is the best approach to generate data for policy- and practice-oriented guidelines. As the pandemic evolves, additional studies identified retrospectively by the steering committee or through living systematic reviews will be invited to participate in this PMA. Investigators can contribute to the PMA by either submitting individual patient data or running standardized code to generate aggregate data estimates. For the primary analysis, we will pool data using two-stage meta-analysis methods. The meta-analyses will be updated as additional data accrue in each contributing study and as additional studies meet study-specific time or data accrual thresholds for sharing. At the time of publication, investigators of 25 studies, including more than 76,000 pregnancies, in 41 countries had agreed to share data for this analysis. Among the included studies, 12 have a contemporaneous comparison group of pregnancies without COVID-19, and four studies include a comparison group of non-pregnant women of reproductive age with COVID-19. Protocols and updates will be maintained publicly. Results will be shared with key stakeholders, including the World Health Organization (WHO) Maternal, Newborn, Child, and Adolescent Health (MNCAH) Research Working Group. Data contributors will share results with local stakeholders. Scientific publications will be published in open-access journals on an ongoing basis.Competing Interest StatementClare Whitehead declares a a relationship with the following entities, Ferring Pharmaceuticals COVID19 Investigational, Grant, NHMRC Fellowship (salary support). Alice Panchaud declares the following research grants to institution: H2020-Grant (Consortium member of Innovative medicine initiative call 13 topic 9) (ConcePTION), Efficacy and safety studies on Medicines EMA/2017/09/PE/11, Lot 4, WP 2 lead (CONSIGN: Study on impact of COVID-19 infection and medicines in pregnancy), Safety monitoring of COVID-19 vaccines in the EU Reopening of competition no. 20 under a framework contract following procurement procedure EMA/2017/09/PE (Lot 3) 4. Federal Office of Public Health (207000 CHF). (The COVI-Preg registry). Edward Mullins declares a relationship with the following entities National Institute for Health Research (Project grant for PAN COVID study) Deborah Money declares a relationship with the following entities, Canadian Institutes of Health Research (payments to my institution only), Public Health Agency of Canada (payments to my institution only), BC Womens Foundation (payments to my institution only) and is a Member of the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force sponsored by the Canadian government. Torri D. Metz declares a relationship with the following entities, Pfizer (site Principal Investigator for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy study, money paid to institution and member of Medical Advisory Board for SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in pregnancy study, money paid to me), NICHD (subcommittee Chair for the NICHD Maternal-Fetal Medicine Units Network Gestational Research Assessments of COVID-19 (GRAVID) study), and Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (board member). Erica Lokken declares a relationship with the following entity, US NIH (paid institution). Karen L. Kotloff declares a relationship with the following entity, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Siran He declares a relationship with the following entity, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundtion (payments made to my institution). Valerie Flaherman declares a relationship with the following entities, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (payments to my institution), Yellow Chair Foundati n (payments to my institution), Robert Woods Johnson Foundation (payments to my institution), CDC Foundation, California Health Care Foundation (payments to my institution), Tara Health Foundation (payments to my institution), UCSF Womens Health Center of Excellence (payments to my institution) and California Department of Health Care Services (payments made to my institution). Jose Sanin-Blair declares a relationship with the following entity, Ferring Pharmaceuticals which give a grant ($10,000) for the expenses of RECOGEST trial and is a part of the Columbian Federation of Perinatology Yalda Afshar declares a relationship with the following entities, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (payments made to my institution), CDC Foundation (payments made to my institution), Robert Woods Johnson Foundation (payments made to my institution), and UCLA Deans Office COVID-19 research (payments made to my institution). Rebecca Cliffton declares a relationship with the following entity, NIH HD36801 (MFMU Network DCC).Clinical TrialPROSPERO ID: 188955Funding StatementFunded by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation grant to Emily Smith (INV-022057) at George Washington University and a grant to Emily Smith via a grant from the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation to Stephanie Gaw (INV-017035) at University of California San Francisco.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This is a protocol paper and thus exempt from ethical approval. Ultimately, the meta-analysis study is exempt from human research ethics approval as the study authors will be synthesizing de-identified or aggregate data.I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesThis is a protocol paper and there is no related data to share.

Background The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae, is largely unknown in regions lacking blood culture surveillance. New serologic markers have proven accurate in diagnosing enteric fever, but whether they could be used to reliably estimate population-level incidence is unknown.Methods We collected longitudinal blood samples from blood culture-confirmed enteric fever cases enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to Hemolysin E (HlyE) and S. Typhi lipopolysaccharide (LPS). We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titers and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys.Findings The longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children &lt;5 years ranged between 58.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI: 42.1 - 81.4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh to 6.6 (95% CI: 4.3-9.9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates.Interpretation The approach described here has the potential to expand the geographic scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographic regions and time.Funding This work was supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-000572).Evidence before this study Previous studies have identified serologic responses to two antigens (Hemolysin E [HlyE] and Salmonella lipopolysaccharide [LPS]) as promising diagnostic markers of acute typhoidal Salmonella infection. We reviewed the evidence for seroepidemiology tools for enteric fever available as of November 01, 2021, by searching the National Library of Medicine article database and medRxiv for preprint publications, published in English, using the terms “enteric fever”, “typhoid fever”, “Salmonella Typhi”, “Salmonella Paratyphi”, “typhoidal Salmonella”, “Hemolysin E”, “Salmonella lipopolysaccharide”, “seroconversion”, “serosurveillance”, “seroepidemiology”, “seroprevalence” and “seropositivity.” We found no studies using HlyE or LPS as markers to measure the incidence or prevalence of enteric fever in a population. Anti-Vi IgG responses were used as a marker of population seroprevalence in cross-sectional studies conducted in South Africa, Fiji, and Nepal, but were not used to calculate population-based incidence estimates.Added value of this study We developed and validated a method to estimate typhoidal Salmonella incidence in cross-sectional population samples using antibody responses measured from dried blood spots. First, using longitudinal dried blood spots collected from over 1400 blood culture-confirmed cases in four countries, we modeled the longitudinal dynamics of antibody responses for up to two years following infection, accounting for heterogeneity in antibody responses and age-dependence. We found that longitudinal antibody responses were highly consistent across four countries on two continents and did not differ by clinical severity. We then used these antibody kinetic parameters to estimate incidence in population-based samples in six communities across the four countries, where concomitant population-based incidence was measured using blood cultures. Seroincidence estimates were much higher than blood-culture-based case estimates across all six sites, suggestive of a high incidence of asymptomatic or unrecognized infections. Still, the rank order of seroincidence and culture-based incidence rates were the same, with the highest rates in Bangladesh and lowest in Ghana.Implications of all the available evidence Many a -risk low- and middle-income countries lack data on typhoid incidence needed to inform and evaluate vaccine introduction. Even in countries where incidence estimates are available, data are typically geographically and temporally sparse due to the resources necessary to initiate and sustain blood culture surveillance. We found that typhoidal Salmonella infection incidence can be estimated from community-based serosurveys using dried blood spots, representing an efficient and scalable approach for generating the typhoid burden data needed to inform typhoid control programs in resource-constrained settings.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis study was funded by th eBill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant INV-000572)Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:Institutional Review Boards in the United States (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Stanford University Institutional Review Board), Bangladesh (Bangladesh Institute of Child Health Ethical Review Committee), Nepal (Nepal Health Research Council Ethical Review Board), Pakistan (AKU Ethic Review Committee and Pakistan National Bioethics Committee), Korea (International Vaccine Institute IRB), Belgium (Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Institutional Review Board) and Ghana (Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Committee on Human Research, Publication and Ethics) approved the study forms and protocols.I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors