BACKGROUND: Long-term persistence of Ebola virus (EBOV) in immunologically-privileged sites has been implicated in recent outbreaks of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) in Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo. This study was designed to understand how the acute course of EVD, convalescence, and host immune and genetic factors may play a role in prolonged viral persistence in semen. METHODS: A cohort of 131 male EVD survivors in Liberia were enrolled in a case-case study. "Early clearers" were defined as those with two consecutive negative EBOV semen tests by real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) at least two weeks apart within 1 year after discharge from the Ebola Treatment Unit (ETU) or acute EVD. "Late clearers" had detectable EBOV RNA by rRT-PCR over one year following ETU discharge or acute EVD. Retrospective histories of their EVD clinical course were collected by questionnaire, followed by complete physical exams and blood work. RESULTS: Compared to early clearers, late clearers were older (median 42.5 years, p = 0.0001) and experienced fewer severe clinical symptoms (median 2, p = 0.006). Late clearers had more lens opacifications (OR 3.9, 95%CI 1.1-13.3, p = 0.03), after accounting for age, higher total serum IgG3 titers (p = 0.007) and increased expression of the HLA-C*03:04 allele (OR 0.14, 95% CI 0.02-0.70, p = 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Older age, decreased illness severity, elevated total serum IgG3 and HLA-C*03:04 allele expression may be risk factors for the persistence of EBOV in the semen of EVD survivors. EBOV persistence in semen may also be associated with its persistence in other immunologically protected sites, such as the eye.

The variety of factors that contributed to the initial undetected spread of Ebola virus disease in West Africa during 2013-2016 and the difficulty controlling the outbreak once the etiology was identified highlight priorities for disease prevention, detection, and response. These factors include occurrence in a region recovering from civil instability and lacking experience with Ebola response; inadequate surveillance, recognition of suspected cases, and Ebola diagnosis; mobile populations and extensive urban transmission; and the community's insufficient general understanding about the disease. The magnitude of the outbreak was not attributable to a substantial change of the virus. Continued efforts during the outbreak and in preparation for future outbreak response should involve identifying the reservoir, improving in-country detection and response capacity, conducting survivor studies and supporting survivors, engaging in culturally appropriate public education and risk communication, building productive interagency relationships, and continuing support for basic research.

The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately 21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling every 15-20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30-40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented in this report become very unlikely.