Last data update: May 20, 2024. (Total: 46824 publications since 2009)
Records 1-2 (of 2 Records) |
Query Trace: Eric Tongren J [original query] |
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The potential impact of Anopheles stephensi establishment on the transmission of Plasmodium falciparum in Ethiopia and prospective control measures (preprint)
Hamlet A , Dengela D , Eric Tongren J , Tadesse FG , Bousema T , Sinka M , Seyoum A , Irish SR , Armistead JS , Churcher T . medRxiv 2021 25 Background Sub-Saharan Africa has seen substantial reductions in cases and deaths due to malaria over the past two decades. While this reduction is primarily due to an increasing expansion of interventions, urbanisation has played its part as urban areas typically experience substantially less malaria transmission than rural areas. However, this may be partially lost with the invasion and establishment of Anopheles stephensi. An. stephensi, the primary urban malaria vector in Asia, was first detected in Africa during 2012 in Djibouti and was subsequently identified in Ethiopia in 2016, and later in Sudan and Somalia. In Djibouti, malaria cases have increased 30-fold from 2012 to 2019 though the impact in the wider region remains unclear. Methods Here we have adapted an existing model of mechanistic malaria transmission to estimate the increase in vector density required to explain the trends in malaria cases seen in Djibouti. To account for the observed plasticity in An. stephensi behaviour, and the unknowns of how it will establish in a novel environment, we sample behavioural parameters in order to account for a wide range of uncertainty. This quantification is then applied to Ethiopia, considering temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation periods, pre-existing vector-control interventions and Plasmodium falciparum prevalence in order to assess the potential impact of An. stephensi establishment on P. falciparum transmission. Following this, we estimate the potential impact of scaling up ITN (insecticide treated nets)/IRS (indoor residual spraying) and implementing piperonyl butoxide (PBO) ITNs and larval source management, as well as their economic costs. Results We estimate that annual P. falciparum malaria cases could increase by 50% (95% CI 14-90) if no additional interventions are implemented. The implementation of sufficient control measures to reduce malaria transmission to pre-stephensi levels will cost hundreds of millions of USD. Conclusions Substantial heterogeneity across the country is predicted and large increases in vector control interventions could be needed to prevent a major public health emergency. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license. |
Firearm use in G- and PG-rated movies, 2008-2012
Pelletier AR , Eric Tongren J , Gilchrist J . Am J Prev Med 2014 47 (6) e11-2 Popular movies represent a common form of media exposure for children, whether viewed in theaters, on TV, or over the Internet. Based on social cognitive theory, children learn behaviors in part through their exposure to media images.1 Exposure to violence in media may have a negative impact on children.2 From 1995 to 2007, almost a third (31%) of the G- and PG-rated movies with the highest U.S. box-office gross revenues had scenes involving firearms.3–5 Movies released during 2008–2012 were examined to determine whether the depiction of firearms in movies marketed to children has changed. |
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