During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Analyses of National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data suggested a significant decrease in sealant prevalence among children between 2011 to 2014 and 2015 to 2018. We explore whether this decrease could be associated with possible changes in 1) clinical sealant delivery, 2) dental materials (i.e., increased use of glass ionomer [GI] sealants resulting in an inability to detect sealant fragments that still provide preventive benefits or increased use of composite restorations leading to misclassifying sealants as restorations), and 3) examination sensitivity and specificity. We used NHANES data to estimate the prevalences of sealants, untreated caries, and restorations in ≥1 first permanent molar among children aged 7 to 10 y and used Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data to estimate the annual clinical delivery of sealants and fluoride treatments. We examined changes in outcomes between 2 periods (P < 0.05) controlling for selected sociodemographic characteristics. NHANES sealant examination quality was based on the reference examiner's replicate examinations. The adjusted prevalence of sealants decreased relatively by 27.5% (46.6% vs. 33.8%). Overall, untreated caries decreased. Untreated caries and restoration decreased among children without sealants. Annual clinical sealant delivery did not change, whereas fluoride treatment delivery increased. The decrease in sealant prevalence held when assessed for various age ranges and NHANES cycle combinations. While sealant examination specificity remained similar between the periods, sensitivity (weighted by the proportion of exams by each examiner) decreased relatively by 17.4% (0.92 vs. 0.76). These findings suggest that decreased sealant prevalence was not supported by decreased clinical sealant delivery nor increased use of composite restorations. Decreased examination sensitivity, which could be due to an increased use of GI sealants, could contribute to the decrease in sealant prevalence. The decrease in caries among children without sealants could suggest the increased use of GI sealants. However, we could not rule out that the decrease in caries could be attributable to increased fluoride treatment delivery.

BACKGROUND: Amalgam has been used for more than 150 years as a safe and reliable restorative material. The authors described the occurrence of amalgam and nonamalgam restorations in the United States in primary and permanent teeth across age groups and according to sociodemographic characteristics. METHODS: The authors used clinical examination data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2015-2018 for participants 2 years and older (n = 17,040). The authors estimated the prevalence and mean number of amalgam and nonamalgam restorations in primary and permanent teeth according to age groups (2-5 years, 6-11 years, 12-15 years, 16-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years, 60-79 years, and ≥ 80 years), race and ethnicity, federal poverty guideline, education, and pregnancy status. RESULTS: The prevalence of amalgam restorations ranged from 4% through 69%. Overall, amalgam restorations were more prevalent in children and adolescents from racial and ethnic minority groups and families at lower poverty levels and with lower education. The mean number of teeth with nonamalgam restorations was higher than those with amalgam restorations in primary teeth of children aged 6 through 11 years, permanent teeth of those 12 through 15 years and 20 through 39 years, and women aged 20 through 49 years, regardless of pregnancy status. The mean number of amalgam restorations was higher than that for nonamalgam restorations in older age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Nonamalgam restorations were the most common in the primary teeth of children older than 5 years and in the permanent teeth of adults younger than 40 years. Amalgam restorations were more common in older adults. Amalgam and nonamalgam restorations were equally common in children younger than 5 years. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: The study findings suggest a shift from amalgam to alternative restorative materials in the United States.

BACKGROUND: A guideline panel convened by the American Dental Association Council on Scientific Affairs, American Dental Association Science and Research Institute, University of Pittsburgh School of Dental Medicine, and Center for Integrative Global Oral Health at the University of Pennsylvania conducted a systematic review and meta-analyses and formulated evidence-based recommendations for the pharmacologic management of acute dental pain after 1 or more simple and surgical tooth extractions and the temporary management of toothache (that is, when definitive dental treatment not immediately available) associated with pulp and furcation or periapical diseases in children (< 12 years). TYPES OF STUDIES REVIEWED: The authors conducted a systematic review to determine the effect of analgesics and corticosteroids in managing acute dental pain. They used the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach to assess the certainty of the evidence and the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation Evidence to Decision framework to formulate recommendations. RESULTS: The panel formulated 7 recommendations and 5 good practice statements across conditions. There is a small beneficial net balance favoring the use of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs alone or in combination with acetaminophen compared with not providing analgesic therapy. There is no available evidence regarding the effect of corticosteroids on acute pain after surgical tooth extractions in children. CONCLUSIONS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Nonopioid medications, specifically nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs like ibuprofen and naproxen alone or in combination with acetaminophen, are recommended for managing acute dental pain after 1 or more tooth extractions (that is, simple and surgical) and the temporary management of toothache in children (conditional recommendation, very low certainty). According to the US Food and Drug Administration, the use of codeine and tramadol in children for managing acute pain is contraindicated.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ABOUT THIS TOPIC? The highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has begun to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. With slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant is expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in July-December 2021. WHAT IS ADDED BY THIS REPORT? Data from nine mechanistic models project substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant. These resurgences, which have now been observed in most states, were projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. Reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduces the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially. The expected impact of the outbreak is largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE? Renewed efforts to increase vaccination uptake are critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower current vaccination coverage. Reaching higher vaccination goals in the coming months can potentially avert 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths and improve the ability to safely resume social contacts, and educational and business activities. Continued or renewed non-pharmaceutical interventions, including masking, can also help limit transmission, particularly as schools and businesses reopen.

OBJECTIVES: Advancing community water fluoridation (CWF) coverage is a national health objective. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began adjusting state-reported data to calculate CWF coverage in 2012, and then modified methods in 2016. We evaluate improvements attributable to data adjustment and implications for interpreting trends. METHODS: To assess adjustment, we compared the percentage deviation of state-reported data and data adjusted by both methods to the standard estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey. To assess effects on estimated CWF trends, we compared statistics calculated with data adjusted by each method. RESULTS: The 2016 method outperformed on all points of evaluation. The CWF national objective measure (percentage of community water system population receiving fluoridated water) was negligibly affected by method. Percentage of US population receiving fluoridated water was lower with the 2016 method versus the 2012. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment of state-reported data improved overall quality of CWF coverage measures and had minimal impact on key measures.

BACKGROUND: School sealant programs (SSPs) increase sealant prevalence among children lacking access to oral health care. SSPs, however, are substantially underused. From 2013 through 2018, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funded 18 states for SSP activities in high-need schools (≥ 50% free and reduced-price meal program participation). From 2019 through 2020, the authors assessed SSPs' impact in reducing caries and how states expanded SSPs. The authors also discuss potential barriers to expansion. METHODS: For Aim 1, the authors used a published methodology and SSP baseline screening and 1-year retention data to estimate averted caries over 9 years attributable to SSPs. For Aim 2, the authors used state responses to an online survey, phone interviews, and annual administrative reports. RESULTS: Using data for 62,750 children attending 18.6% of high-need schools in 16 states, the authors estimated that 7.5% of sound, unsealed molars would develop caries annually without sealants and placing 4 sealants would prevent caries in 1 molar. Fourteen states reported SSP expansion in high-need schools. The 2 most frequently reported barriers to SSP expansion were levels of funding and policies requiring dentists to be present at assessment or sealant placement. CONCLUSIONS: The authors found that SSPs typically served children at elevated caries risk and reduced caries. In addition, the authors identified funding levels and policies governing supervision of dental hygienists as possible barriers to SSP expansion. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Increasing SSP prevalence could reduce caries. Further research on potential barriers to SSP implementation identified in this study could provide critical information for long-term SSP sustainability.

BACKGROUND: National data indicate that working-aged adults (20-64 years) are more likely to report financial barriers to receiving needed oral health care relative to other age groups. The aim of this study was to examine the burden of untreated caries (UC) and its association with reporting an unmet oral health care need among working-aged adults. METHODS: The authors used National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2011 through 2016 for 10,286 dentate adults to examine the prevalence of mild to moderate (1-3 affected teeth) and severe (≥ 4 affected teeth) UC. The authors used multivariable logistic regression to identify factors that were associated with reporting an unmet oral health care need. RESULTS: Low-income adults had mild to moderate UC (26.2%) 2 times more frequently and severe UC (13.2%) 3 times more frequently than higher-income adults. After controlling for covariates, the variables most strongly associated with reporting an unmet oral health care need were UC, low income, fair or poor general health, smoking, and no private health insurance. The model-adjusted prevalence of reporting an unmet oral health care need among low-income adults with mild to moderate and severe UC were 35.7% and 45.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of UC among low-income adults is high; prevalence was approximately 40% with approximately 3 affected teeth per person on average. Reporting an unmet oral health care need appears to be capturing primarily differences in UC, health, and financial access to oral health care. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Data on self-reported unmet oral health care need can have utility as a surveillance tool for monitoring UC and targeting resources to decrease UC among low-income adults.

BACKGROUND: Untreated caries (UC), although highly prevalent, is largely preventable. Information on the contribution of different teeth to UC prevalence and severity could be helpful in evaluating UC surveillance protocols and the relative benefits of caries prevention interventions. METHODS: The authors combined data from 3 cycles (2011-2016) of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for participants aged 6 through 11 years, 12 through 19 years, 20 through 34 years, 35 through 49 years, 50 through 64 years, 65 through 74 years, and 75 years and older. For each age group the authors calculated the contribution of successive permanent tooth types (for example, first molars and second molars) to UC prevalence and severity. RESULTS: UC prevalence and the percentage of prevalence detected by means of screening molars were, respectively, 5% and 95% among participants aged 6 through 11 years; 16% and 92% among participants aged 12 through 19 years; 29% and 86% among participants aged 20 through 34 years; 26% and 70% among participants aged 35 through 49 years; 21% and 48% among participants aged 50 through 64 years; 16% and 36% among participants aged 65 through 74 years; and 17% and 25% among participants 75 years and older. Among adults aged 50 years and older, no teeth appeared to capture a disproportionate share of UC prevalence. Molars accounted for 87%, 79%, and 56% of severity among participants aged 6 through 11 years, 12 through 19 years, and 20 through 34 years, respectively. After age 34 years, molars accounted for less than 50% of severity. CONCLUSIONS: Molars are the tooth type most susceptible to UC well into adulthood. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Molars could be used as sentinel teeth for surveillance of UC and adults could benefit from caries prevention that targets molars.

BACKGROUND: Patients visiting the emergency department (ED) for nontraumatic dental conditions usually receive nondefinitive health care and are referred to treatment elsewhere. This may lead to potentially avoidable antibiotic and opioid use. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted in IBM MarketScan Research Databases in Treatment Pathways from 2012 through 2014. This study included patients with commercial insurance or enrolled in Medicaid. Patients receiving a diagnosis of a dental condition in the ED with no secondary diagnosis warranting an antibiotic prescription were included. Patients were stratified on the basis of the primary payer and available demographics, as well as on the basis of repeat visits to the ED. RESULTS: A higher proportion of Medicaid beneficiaries (280,410, 4.9%) had dental-related visits compared with the commercially insured (159,066, 1.3%). The most common diagnoses were similar for both groups and included caries. In both cohorts, the 18- through 34-year age group had the highest rate of dental-related ED visits. Within 7 days of a dental-related ED visit, 54.9% of Medicaid beneficiaries and 55.0% of commercially insured beneficiaries filled a prescription for an antibiotic and 39.6% of Medicaid patients and 42.0% of commercially insured patients filled an opioid prescription. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotics and opioids are frequently prescribed during ED visits for dental conditions. Access to preventive and acute oral health care for routine dental symptoms, such as caries, may reduce unnecessary prescriptions in both the commercially insured and Medicaid beneficiary populations. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Treatment of dental conditions in the ED often indicates a lack of access to preventive or acute oral health care. Data-driven solutions, such as guideline implementation, could improve oral health access, reduce medication-related harms, and avert health care expenditures.

BACKGROUND: Although dietary fluoride (F) supplements (DFS) are recommended for children who use F-deficient drinking water, no studies have examined filled DFS prescriptions across multiple states to examine the dosage consistency with current recommendations or prescription length. METHODS: This sequential cross-sectional analysis used Medicaid claims data for children aged 0.5 through 16 years who in 2011 lived in the 6 states with the lowest and the highest fluoridation coverage (≤ 34% and ≥ 95% of the public water system population fluoridated, respectively). For 2011, the authors calculated the mean percentage of children with filled DFS prescriptions and the change since 2000 across states with high and low fluoridation coverage, the percentage of children with filled DFS prescriptions containing F dosage consistent with current recommendations, and filled DFS prescription length and cost across states. RESULTS: In states with high fluoridation coverage, the mean percentage of children with a filled prescription was < 1% in both years; in states with low fluoridation coverage, this value increased from 0.9% to 10.3%, the highest increase (16.4 percentage points) since 2000 among children aged 0.5 through 2 years. The average prescription length was 72 days. Across states, the mean costs per child prescribed supplements and per enrollee were $17.60 and $1.05, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Filled prescriptions largely followed current recommendations but reached only a small percentage of children in low-coverage states. The short prescription length indicated limited exposure for caries prevention. Results from these states suggest more children could have longer exposure to the caries-preventive benefits of F at a similar cost with water fluoridation as with DFS.

BACKGROUND: In this study, the authors report on the geospatial distributions of periodontists and adults with severe periodontitis in the United States. METHODS: The authors used geospatial analysis to describe the distribution of periodontists and adults, periodontists vis-à-vis estimated density of adults with severe periodontitis, and their ratios to adults with severe periodontitis. The authors identified locations of 5,415 practicing periodontists through the 2014 National Provider Identifier Registry, linked them with the weighted census number of adults, and estimated the number of adults within a series of circular distance zones. RESULTS: Approximately 60% of adults 30 through 79 years lived within 5 miles of a periodontist, 73% within 10 miles, 85% within 20 miles, and 97% within 50 miles. Proximity to a periodontist varied widely. In urban areas, 95% of adults resided within 10 miles of a periodontist and 100% within 20 miles. Only 24% of adults in rural areas lived within 10 miles of a periodontist. Most periodontists (96.1%) practiced in urban areas, clustering along the eastern and western coasts and in the Midwest, 3.1% in urban clusters elsewhere, and 0.8% in rural areas. Ratios of fewer than 8,000 adults with periodontitis to 1 or more periodontists within 10 miles were clustered mostly in the Northeast, central East Coast, Florida, West Coast, Arizona, and Midwest. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, the authors identified wide variations in geographic proximity to a practicing periodontist for adults with severe periodontitis. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Dental practitioners may provide preventive care and counseling for periodontitis and referrals for specialty care. Geographic proximity to specialized periodontal care may vary widely by locality.

In Spring 2021, the highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant began to cause increases in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in parts of the United States. At the time, with slowed vaccination uptake, this novel variant was expected to increase the risk of pandemic resurgence in the US in summer and fall 2021. As part of the COVID-10 Scenario Modeling Hub, an ensemble of nine mechanistic models produced six-month scenario projections for July-December 2021 for the United States. These projections estimated substantial resurgences of COVID-19 across the US resulting from the more transmissible Delta variant, projected to occur across most of the US, coinciding with school and business reopening. The scenarios revealed that reaching higher vaccine coverage in July-December 2021 reduced the size and duration of the projected resurgence substantially, with the expected impacts was largely concentrated in a subset of states with lower vaccination coverage. Despite accurate projection of COVID-19 surges occurring and timing, the magnitude was substantially underestimated 2021 by the models compared with the of the reported cases, hospitalizations, and deaths occurring during July-December, highlighting the continued challenges to predict the evolving COVID-19 pandemic. Vaccination uptake remains critical to limiting transmission and disease, particularly in states with lower vaccination coverage. Higher vaccination goals at the onset of the surge of the new variant were estimated to avert over 1.5 million cases and 21,000 deaths, though may have had even greater impacts, considering the underestimated resurgence magnitude from the model.

Critical to identifying the risk of environmentally driven disease is an understanding of the cumulative impact of environmental conditions on human health. Here we describe the methodology used to develop an environmental burden index (EBI). The EBI is calculated at U.S. census tract level, a finer scale than many similar national-level tools. EBI scores are also stratified by tract land cover type as per the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), controlling for urbanicity. The EBI was developed over the course of four stages: 1) literature review to identify potential indicators, 2) data source acquisition and indicator variable construction, 3) index creation, and 4) stratification by land cover type. For each potential indicator, data sources were assessed for completeness, update frequency, and availability. These indicators were: (1) particulate matter (PM2.5), (2) ozone, (3) Superfund National Priority List (NPL) locations, (4) Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) facilities, (5) Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSD) facilities, (6) recreational parks, (7) railways, (8) highways, (9) airports, and (10) impaired water sources. Indicators were statistically normalized and checked for collinearity. For each indicator, we computed and summed percentile ranking scores to create an overall ranking for each tract. Tracts having the same plurality of land cover type form a 'peer' group. We re-ranked the tracts into percentiles within each peer group for each indicator. The percentile scores were combined for each tract to obtain a stratified EBI. A higher score reveals a tract with increased environmental burden relative to other tracts of the same peer group. We compared our results to those of related indices, finding good convergent validity between the overall EBI and CalEnviroScreen 4.0. The EBI has many potential applications for research and use as a tool to develop public health interventions at a granular scale.

Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) and Hispanic and low-income US children have a higher prevalence of untreated caries than their higher-income and non-Hispanic White (NHW) counterparts. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many dental offices and school sealant programs closed beginning March 2020. We examine the effect of reduced access to restorative care and sealants on the oral health of children from low-income households overall and by race/ethnicity and how increased sealant delivery in September 2022 could mitigate these effects. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to model COVID-19's impact on first permanent molar (1M) caries incidence and loss in quality of life (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) due to time lived with 1M untreated caries. Our model followed a cohort of children aged 7y in March 2020 until February 2024. Model inputs were primarily obtained from published studies and nationally representative data. Excess DALYs per 1,000 children attributable to reduced access to care during the pandemic were 1.48 overall and greater for Hispanic (2.07) and NHB (1.75) children than for NHW children (0.94). Excess incidence of 1M caries over 4y was 2.28percentage points overall and greater for Hispanic (2.63) and NHB (2.40) children than for NHW (1.96) children. Delivering sealants to 50% of eligible 1Ms in September 2022 would not completely mitigate COVID-19's health access impact: overall excess DALYs would decrease to 1.05, and absolute disparities in excess DALYs between NHW children and Hispanic and NHB children would remain but decrease by 0.38 and 0.33, respectively. Sealing 40% of eligible 1Ms, however, would bring overall 4-y caries incidence down to pre-COVID-19 levels and eliminate the differential effect of the pandemic on children from minority groups. The pandemic's negative impact on the oral health of children from low-income households and increased disparities could be partially mitigated with increased sealant delivery.

SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

After a period of rapidly declining U.S. COVID-19 incidence during January-March 2021, increases occurred in several jurisdictions (1,2) despite the rapid rollout of a large-scale vaccination program. This increase coincided with the spread of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, including B.1.1.7 (1,3) and relaxation of COVID-19 prevention strategies such as those for businesses, large-scale gatherings, and educational activities. To provide long-term projections of potential trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub teams used a multiple-model approach comprising six models to assess the potential course of COVID-19 in the United States across four scenarios with different vaccination coverage rates and effectiveness estimates and strength and implementation of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (public health policies, such as physical distancing and masking) over a 6-month period (April-September 2021) using data available through March 27, 2021 (4). Among the four scenarios, an accelerated decline in NPI adherence (which encapsulates NPI mandates and population behavior) was shown to undermine vaccination-related gains over the subsequent 2-3 months and, in combination with increased transmissibility of new variants, could lead to surges in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. A sharp decline in cases was projected by July 2021, with a faster decline in the high-vaccination scenarios. High vaccination rates and compliance with public health prevention measures are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic and to prevent surges in hospitalizations and deaths in the coming months.

OBJECTIVES: Previous surveys have demonstrated high rates of early childhood caries (ECC) in the Alaska Native (AN) population of western Alaska. There are many challenges to providing dental care in this road-less Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta region. The regional Tribal Health Organization implemented an electronic dental record (EDR) system in the late 1990s. We explored use of the EDR to establish an oral health surveillance system in children. METHODS: We contracted with EDR software developers to implement calculation of a summary count of decayed (d), missing (m) or filled (f) primary (dmft) score for each individual. We calculated the yearly average dmft scores for 2011-2019 for children aged 3 and 5 years with a comprehensive exam in a given year. We also assessed the number of children undergoing full mouth dental rehabilitation (FMDR). We used US census data population estimates for these age groups to calculate rates. RESULTS: Over the 9-year period, 2,427 3-year-old children (47 percent of all 3-year olds over this period), received a comprehensive exam; increasing from 24 percent in 2011 to 62 percent in 2019. Their average dmft score over the 9-years was 6.4 with a significant annual decline over this period. Seventy percent of AN children who turned 6 between 2015 and 2019 had received at least one FMDR. CONCLUSIONS: An oral health surveillance system has been established in western Alaska using the Electronic Dental Record. High rates of ECC and FMDR were observed. This surveillance system will allow assessments of ECC prevalence and impact of dental interventions.

Adherence to clinical guidelines is recommended to promote appropriate antibiotic use in dentistry and address concerns about increasing antibiotic resistance. Guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures were updated in 2007 and 2015. In an effort to inform antibiotic stewardship efforts, a study was undertaken to assess the knowledge of antibiotic usage guidelines and antibiotic-prescribing practices among Minnesota dentists. During September 2015, a 22-question online survey was sent to the state dental association membership. Among 437 respondents, dentists reported a median of 4 antibiotic prophylaxis and 5 treatment prescriptions per month. Dentists reported prescribing antibiotics for prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures for patients with "high-risk conditions" (84%) and localized swelling (70%) as well as for a number of reasons that are not recommended by current guidelines, such as an upcoming vacation for the patient (38%), gingival pain (38%), legal concerns (24%), patient demand (22%), and failed local anesthesia (21%). Dentists defined high-risk conditions as a history of infective endocarditis (75%), prosthetic cardiac valve (70%), selected congenital heart disease (68%), cardiac transplantation with cardiac valvulopathy (4%), and primary care physician recommendation (59%). In addition, some dentists assigned a high-risk category to conditions that do not fall within current guideline recommendations, including prosthetic joints (39%), poorly controlled type 2 diabetes (27%), human immunodeficiency virus (18%), chronic kidney disease (13%), mitral valve prolapse (11%), all congenital heart disease (4%), and well-controlled type 2 diabetes (1%). Respondents indicated that common challenges to stewardship of antibiotic use included perceived conflicting provider guidelines (44%), conflicting scientific evidence (44%), or lack of information on antibiotic selection (19%) or risks (23%). Dentists reported greater antibiotic use than currently recommended by existing guidelines. Antibiotic stewardship efforts in dentistry should address challenges to guideline adherence.

BACKGROUND: This report presents weighted average estimates of the prevalence of periodontitis in the adult US population during the 6 years 2009-2014 and highlights key findings of a national periodontitis surveillance project. METHODS: Estimates were derived for dentate adults 30 years or older from the civilian noninstitutionalized population whose periodontitis status was assessed by means of a full-mouth periodontal examination at 6 sites per tooth on all non-third molar teeth. Results are reported according to a standard format by applying the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/American Academy of Periodontology periodontitis case definitions for surveillance, as well as various thresholds of clinical attachment loss and periodontal probing depth. RESULTS: An estimated 42% of dentate US adults 30 years or older had periodontitis, with 7.8% having severe periodontitis. Overall, 3.3% of all periodontally probed sites (9.1% of all teeth) had periodontal probing depth of 4 millimeters or greater, and 19.0% of sites (37.1% of teeth) had clinical attachment loss of 3 mm or greater. Severe periodontitis was most prevalent among adults 65 years or older, Mexican Americans, non-Hispanic blacks, and smokers. CONCLUSIONS: This nationally representative study shows that periodontitis is a highly prevalent oral disease among US adults. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Dental practitioners should be aware of the high prevalence of periodontitis in US adults and may provide preventive care and counselling for periodontitis. General dentists who encounter patients with periodontitis may refer these patients to see a periodontist for specialty care.

BACKGROUND: In October 2014, the New Jersey Department of Health received reports of 3 patients who developed Enterococcus faecalis endocarditis after undergoing surgical procedures at the same oral surgery practice in New Jersey. Bacterial endocarditis is an uncommon but life-threatening condition; 3 patients with enterococcal endocarditis associated with a single oral surgery practice is unusual. An investigation was initiated because of the potential ongoing public health risk. METHODS: Public health officials conducted retrospective surveillance to identify additional patients with endocarditis associated with the practice. They interviewed patients using a standardized questionnaire. An investigative public health team inspected the office environment, interviewed staff, and reviewed medical records. RESULTS: Public health officials identified 15 confirmed patients with enterococcal endocarditis of those patients who underwent procedures from December 2012 through August 2014. Among these patients, 12 (80%) underwent cardiac surgery. One (7%) patient died from complications of endocarditis and subsequent cardiac surgery. Breaches of recommended infection prevention practices were identified that might have resulted in transmission of enterococci during the administration of intravenous sedation, including failure to perform hand hygiene and failure to maintain aseptic technique when performing procedures and handling medications. CONCLUSIONS: This investigation highlights the importance of adhering to infection prevention recommendations in dental care settings. No additional patients with endocarditis were identified after infection prevention and control recommendations were implemented. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Infection prevention training should be emphasized at all levels of professional dental training. All dental health care personnel establishing intravenous treatment and administering intravenous medications should be trained in safe injection practices.

In early 2014, a 48-year-old man visited his dentist for a routine visit. After the dental examination, his dentist offered him a new “3-in-1 swish and gargle” test to see if he might have, or be at risk of developing, oropharyngeal cancer. The only information the dentist provided was that the human papillomavirus (HPV) subtype polymerase chain reaction test would help evaluate for the presence of HPV infection, an emerging cause of throat cancer. The patient agreed to the test, and the result was positive for HPV-16. Cytologic examination of his specimen demonstrated no pathological changes. Fluorescence in situ hybridization results showed normal copy numbers of chromosomes and did not detect amplification of the genes TERC, TERT, or CCND1. The dentist charged the patient approximately $100 for the test; when the patient’s insurance denied the claim, the test manufacturer waived the charges. | | Because of the positive HPV test result, the dentist referred the patient to an otolaryngologist, who performed nasopharyngolaryngoscopy (NPL); examination findings were unremarkable. The cost of this visit, including the NPL, was approximately $2,000. The patient’s otolaryngologist recommended quarterly follow-up visits with NPL. The patient later discovered that his health insurer did not agree with the indication for his visit to the otolaryngologist, so he paid much of the cost of the visit out of pocket.

Engaging key populations, including gender and sexual minorities, is essential to meeting global targets for reducing new HIV infections and improving the HIV continuum of care. Negative attitudes toward gender and sexual minorities serve as a barrier to political will and effective programming for HIV health services. The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), established in 2003, provided Gender and Sexual Diversity Trainings for 2,825 participants including PEPFAR staff and program implementers, U.S. government staff, and local stakeholders in 38 countries. The outcomes of these one-day trainings were evaluated among a subset of participants using a mixed methods pre- and post-training study design. Findings suggest that sustainable decreases in negative attitudes toward gender and sexual minorities are achievable with a one-day training.

Prior genome-wide association studies for oral clefts have focused on clinic-based samples with unclear generalizability. Prior samples were also small for investigating effects by cleft type and exclusively studied isolated clefts (those occurring without other birth defects). We estimated the effects of 17 top loci on cleft types in both isolated and nonisolated cases in the largest consortium to date of European-descent population-based studies. Our analytic approach focused on a mother-child dyad case-control design, but it also allowed analyzing mother-only or child-only genotypes to maximize power. Our total sample included 1,875 cases with isolated clefts, 459 cases with nonisolated clefts, and 3,749 controls. After correcting for multiple testing, we observed significant associations between fetal single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at IRF6, PAX7, 8q21.3, 8q24, KIAA1598-VAX1, and MAFB and isolated cleft lip only (CLO) and cleft lip and palate (CLP). Significant associations were observed between isolated CLO and fetal SNPs near TPM1 and NOG1 and between CLP and fetal SNPs at ABCA4-ARHGAP29, THADA, FOXE1, and SPRY2. Overall, effects were similar for isolated CLO and CLP, except for ABCA4-ARHGAP29. A protective effect was observed for the fetal NOG1 SNP on cleft palate only, opposite in direction to the effect on CLO. For most fetal SNPs, a dose-response allelic effect was observed. No evidence of parent-of-origin or maternal genome effects was observed. Overall, effect direction and magnitude were similar between isolated and nonisolated clefts, suggesting that several loci are modifiers of cleft risk in both isolated and nonisolated forms. Our results provide reliable estimates of the effects of top loci on risks of oral clefts in a population of European descent.

OBJECTIVE: Develop methodology to estimate the annual cost of resources used by school sealant programs (SSPs) and demonstrate its use. METHODS: We used existing literature and expert opinion to identify SSP cost components and the most appropriate units for their measurement (e.g., per operator) and collection frequency (e.g., per day). For equipment and reusable instruments, costs were sufficiently homogenous across SSPs that we could provide default per unit cost estimates (2016 US$) that SSPs can use in lieu of collecting their own data. We also provide default costs for supply items such that SSPs can estimate total supply costs with program-specific information on sealant material used, as well as number of: sealant stations, operators, service delivery days, children screened/sealed, and number of teeth sealed. For the remaining three categories (labor, mileage, and administrative), costs varied substantially by SSP and required us to develop and pilot collection logs for program-specific data. RESULTS: The annual cost per sealant station ranged from $584 to $797 depending on program characteristics. For a hypothetical SSP that staffed each of two stations with two operators (hygienist and assistant) compensated at the national rate, hourly labor costs would equal $77.97. Assuming this SSP used disposable instruments, light-cured sealants and delivered sealants (3 per child) to 60 percent of the 3,390 children screened over 100 service days, infection control/supply costs per child would equal $5.30. CONCLUSION: This methodology allows SSPs to estimate costs with minimal data collection and time.

BACKGROUND: Dentists prescribe approximately 10% of outpatient antibiotics, but little is known about dentists' antibiotic prescribing patterns. The authors conducted a study to characterize prescribing by dentists according to antibiotic agent and category, patient demographic characteristics, and geographic region in the United States. METHODS: The authors identified oral antibiotic prescriptions dispensed during 2013 in the Xponent (QuintilesIMS) database. The authors used the total number of prescriptions and county-level census population denominators to calculate prescribing rates. In addition, the authors analyzed prescribing according to individual agent, drug category, and patient demographic characteristics and the total number of prescriptions calculated for general dentists overall. RESULTS: Dentists prescribed 24.5 million courses of antibiotics in 2013, a prescribing rate of 77.5 prescriptions per 1,000 people. Penicillins were the most commonly prescribed antibiotic category. Dentists prescribed most antibiotics for adults older than 19 years. The Northeast census region had the highest prescribing rate per 1,000 people. The District of Columbia had the highest prescribing rate of 99.5 per 1,000 people, and Delaware had the lowest prescribing rate of 50.7 per 1,000 people. CONCLUSIONS: Dentists prescribe large quantities of antibiotics in outpatient settings, and there is considerable geographic variability. Additional study is needed to better understand the reasons for this variability and identify areas of possible intervention and improvement. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Continued efforts to combat antibiotic resistance will require all prescribers, including dentists, to examine prescribing behaviors for appropriateness and the effectiveness of guidelines to identify opportunities to optimize antibiotic use.

OBJECTIVE: A recent HIV outbreak in a rural network of persons who inject drugs (PWID) underscored the intersection of the expanding epidemics of opioid abuse, unsterile injection drug use (IDU), and associated increases in hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections. We sought to identify US communities potentially vulnerable to rapid spread of HIV, if introduced, and new or continuing high rates of HCV infections among PWID. DESIGN: We conducted a multistep analysis to identify indicator variables highly associated with IDU. We then used these indicator values to calculate vulnerability scores for each county to identify which were most vulnerable. METHODS: We used confirmed cases of acute HCV infection reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System, 2012-2013, as a proxy outcome for IDU, and 15 county-level indicators available nationally in Poisson regression models to identify indicators associated with higher county acute HCV infection rates. Using these indicators, we calculated composite index scores to rank each county's vulnerability. RESULTS: A parsimonious set of 6 indicators were associated with acute HCV infection rates (proxy for IDU): drug-overdose deaths, prescription opioid sales, per capita income, white, non-Hispanic race/ethnicity, unemployment, and buprenorphine prescribing potential by waiver. Based on these indicators, we identified 220 counties in 26 states within the 95th percentile of most vulnerable. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis highlights US counties potentially vulnerable to HIV and HCV infections among PWID in the context of the national opioid epidemic. State and local health departments will need to further explore vulnerability and target interventions to prevent transmission.

OBJECTIVE: To ascertain and compare the oral health status and related sociodemographic risk indicators in children in Los Angeles (LA) County with children in the United States. METHODS: Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004 were used to calculate prevalence estimates for children aged 2-13 years living in LA County and in the United States. Sociodemographic indicators were evaluated using multiple logistic regression modeling. RESULTS: Overall, children in LA County were more likely to experience dental caries than children in the United States in 1999-2004. In the primary dentition, nearly 40% of preschool children residing in LA County had dental caries compared to 28% of same-age children in the United States. Among children aged 6-13, 44% living in LA County had dental caries in the permanent dentition compared to 27% in the United States. Mexican American children in LA County had higher caries experience in permanent teeth (but not in primary teeth) than US Mexican American children. Among children aged 6-9 years, there was no difference in the prevalence of dental sealants in permanent teeth between those living in LA County and in the United States. However, among children aged 10-13 years, dental sealants were more than twice as prevalent in US children (40.8%) than in LA County children (17.5%). Among LA County children, the adjusted odds of having caries experience or untreated dental caries in permanent teeth were not higher among children from lower income families than in lower income children in the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Children residing in LA County had less favorable oral health than children in the United States in 1999-2004. The usual sociodemographic caries risk indicators identified among children in the United States were not consistently observed among children in LA County. Unlike in the wider United States, poverty was not a risk indicator for dental caries in older children in LA County.

Alexander Fleming’s discovery of penicillin in 1928 is one of the greatest medical advancements in history.1 The introduction of antibiotics meant that infectious diseases that were once deadly could now be cured. Since 1928, countless lives have been saved, and antibiotics have been recognized as miracle drugs. However, as antibiotic use has become more prevalent, so have antibiotic-resistant bacteria and adverse events associated with their use.2,3 In his 1945 Nobel Lecture, Fleming warned of the danger of over-reliance on antibiotics and the threat of bacteria developing resistance.1 | | Misuse and overuse of antibiotics have contributed to selective pressure on bacteria to adapt to the antibiotics intended to kill them; antibiotic resistance is now one of our most serious global health threats.2 Every year in the United States, at least 2 million people become infected with antibiotic-resistant bacteria, and approximately 23,000 people die as a direct result of these infections.2 Concurrently, there has been a decrease in research and development of new antibiotics, which has compounded the antibiotic resistance crisis, making treatment of infections in some patients challenging.4–6