Last data update: Nov 11, 2024. (Total: 48109 publications since 2009)
Records 1-30 (of 774 Records) |
Query Trace: Davis W[original query] |
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Traceback and testing of food epidemiologically linked to a norovirus outbreak at a wedding reception
Papafragkou E , Kita-Yarbro A , Yang Z , Chhabra P , Davis T , Blackmore J , Ziemer C , Klos R , Hall AJ , Vinjé J . J Food Prot 2024 100395 We investigated a suspected norovirus outbreak associated with a wedding reception in Wisconsin in May 2015. Fifty-six of 106 (53%) wedding attendees were interviewed and 23 (41%) reported symptoms consistent with norovirus infection. A retrospective cohort study identified fruit salad as the likely vehicle of infection (risk ratio 3.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1- 8.3). Norovirus was detected by real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) in stool specimens collected from four attendees and one food handler and in 12 leftover fruit salad samples from both an opened and a sealed container. Norovirus-positive clinical samples (n=4) were genotyped as GII.4 Sydney and norovirus-positive fruit salad samples (n=2) confirmed the presence of GII.4 norovirus by Sanger sequencing with 98% nucleotide (n=236) similarity in 5' end of ORF2 between fruit salad and clinical specimens. In conclusion, this comprehensive norovirus outbreak investigation combined epidemiologic, virologic, and environmental findings to traceback the contaminated food as the source of the outbreak. |
Safety of simultaneous vs sequential mRNA COVID-19 and inactivated influenza vaccines: A randomized clinical trial
Walter EB , Schlaudecker EP , Talaat KR , Rountree W , Broder KR , Duffy J , Grohskopf LA , Poniewierski MS , Spreng RL , Staat MA , Tekalign R , Museru O , Goel A , Davis GN , Schmader KE . JAMA Netw Open 2024 7 (11) e2443166 IMPORTANCE: Limited randomized clinical trial data exist on the safety of simultaneous administration of COVID-19 and influenza vaccines. OBJECTIVE: To compare the reactogenicity, safety, and changes in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) after simultaneous vs sequential receipt of messenger RNA (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccine and quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted between October 8, 2021, and June 14, 2023, at 3 US sites. Participants were nonpregnant persons aged 5 years or older with the intention of receiving both influenza and mRNA COVID-19 vaccines. INTERVENTIONS: Intramuscular administration in opposite arms of either IIV4 or saline placebo simultaneously with mRNA COVID-19 vaccine at visit 1. Those who received placebo at visit 1 received IIV4 and those who received IIV4 at visit 1 received placebo 1 to 2 weeks later at visit 2. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary composite reactogenicity outcome was the proportion of participants with fever, chills, myalgia, and/or arthralgia of moderate or greater severity within 7 days after vaccination visits 1 and/or 2, using a 10% noninferiority margin. Secondary outcomes were solicited reactogenicity events and unsolicited adverse events (AEs) for 7 days after each visit separately and HRQOL after visit 1, assessed by the EuroQol 5-Dimension 5-Level (EQ-5D-5L) Index. Serious AEs (SAEs) and AEs of special interest (AESIs) were assessed for 121 days. Outcomes were compared between groups. RESULTS: A total of 335 persons (mean [SD] age, 33.4 [15.1] years) were randomized (169 to the simultaneous group and 166 to the sequential group); 211 (63.0%) were female, and 255 (76.1%) received bivalent BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. The proportion with the primary composite reactogenicity outcome in the simultaneous group (25.6% [n = 43]) was noninferior to the proportion in the sequential group (31.3% [n = 52]) (site-adjusted difference, -5.6 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, -15.2 to 4.0 pp). Respective proportions in each group were similar after each visit separately (visit 1, 40 [23.8%] vs 47 [28.3%]; visit 2, 5 [3.0%] vs 9 [5.4%]). No significant group differences in participants with AEs (21 [12.4%] vs 16 [9.6%]), SAEs (1 [0.6%] vs 1 [0.6%]), and AESIs (19 [11.2%] vs 9 [5.4%]) were observed in the simultaneous vs sequential groups, respectively. Among participants with severe reactogenicity, the mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L Index score decreased from 0.92 (0.08) to 0.92 (0.09) prevaccination to 0.81 (0.09) to 0.82 (0.12) postvaccination. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this randomized clinical trial assessing simultaneous vs sequential administration of mRNA COVID-19 and IIV4 vaccines, reactogenicity was comparable in both groups. These findings support the option of simultaneous administration of these vaccines. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05028361. |
Transmission of a human isolate of clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N1) virus in ferrets
Pulit-Penaloza JA , Belser JA , Brock N , Kieran TJ , Sun X , Pappas C , Zeng H , Carney P , Chang J , Bradley-Ferrell B , Stevens J , De La Cruz JA , Hatta Y , Di H , Davis CT , Tumpey TM , Maines TR . Nature 2024 Since 2020, there has been unprecedented global spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) in wild bird populations with spillover into a variety of mammalian species and sporadically humans(1). In March 2024, clade 2.3.4.4b A(H5N1) virus was first detected in dairy cattle in the U.S., with subsequent detection in numerous states(2), leading to over a dozen confirmed human cases(3,4). In this study, we employed the ferret model, a well-characterized species that permits concurrent investigation of viral pathogenicity and transmissibility(5) in the evaluation of A/Texas/37/2024 (TX/37) A(H5N1) virus isolated from a dairy farm worker in Texas(6). Here, we show that the virus has a remarkable ability for robust systemic infection in ferrets, leading to high levels of virus shedding and spread to naïve contacts. Ferrets inoculated with TX/37 rapidly exhibited a severe and fatal infection, characterized by viremia and extrapulmonary spread. The virus efficiently transmitted in a direct contact setting and was capable of indirect transmission via fomites. Airborne transmission was corroborated by the detection of infectious virus shed into the air by infected animals, albeit at lower levels compared to the highly transmissible human seasonal and swine-origin H1 subtype strains. Our results show that despite maintaining an avian-like receptor binding specificity, TX/37 displays heightened virulence, transmissibility, and airborne shedding relative to other clade 2.3.4.4b virus isolated prior to the 2024 cattle outbreaks(7), underscoring the need for continued public health vigilance. |
Discriminating north American swine influenza viruses with a portable, one-step, triplex real-time RT-PCR assay, and portable sequencing
Kirby MK , Shu B , Keller MW , Wilson MM , Rambo-Martin BL , Jang Y , Liddell J , Salinas Duron E , Nolting JM , Bowman AS , Davis CT , Wentworth DE , Barnes JR . Viruses 2024 16 (10) Swine harbors a genetically diverse population of swine influenza A viruses (IAV-S), with demonstrated potential to transmit to the human population, causing outbreaks and pandemics. Here, we describe the development of a one-step, triplex real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) assay that detects and distinguishes the majority of the antigenically distinct influenza A virus hemagglutinin (HA) clades currently circulating in North American swine, including the IAV-S H1 1A.1 (α), 1A.2 (β), 1A.3 (γ), 1B.2.2 (δ1) and 1B.2.1 (δ2) clades, and the IAV-S H3 2010.1 clade. We performed an in-field test at an exhibition swine show using in-field viral concentration and RNA extraction methodologies and a portable real-time PCR instrument, and rapidly identified three distinct IAV-S clades circulating within the N.A. swine population. Portable sequencing is used to further confirm the results of the in-field test of the swine triplex assay. The IAV-S triplex rRT-PCR assay can be easily transported and used in-field to characterize circulating IAV-S clades in North America, allowing for surveillance and early detection of North American IAV-S with human outbreak and pandemic potential. |
An observational analysis of the impact of deltamethrin + piperonyl butoxide insecticide-treated nets on malaria case incidence and entomological indicators in Ebonyi State, Nigeria, 2017-2021
Davis KM , Okoko OO , Oduola AO , Inyama PU , Uneke CJ , Ambrose K , Seyoum A , Uhomoibhi P , Rhoda DA , Clary CB , Millar J , Littrell M , Rogers JH , Yoshimizu M , Inyang U , Maire M , Burnett SM . Malar J 2024 23 (1) 317 BACKGROUND: Intense pyrethroid resistance threatens the effectiveness of the primary vector control intervention, insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), in Nigeria, the country with the largest malaria burden globally. In this study, the epidemiological and entomological impact of a new type of ITN (piperonyl-butoxide [PBO] ITNs) distributed in Ebonyi State were evaluated. The epidemiological impact was also compared to the impact of standard pyrethroid-only ITNs in Cross River State. METHODS: A controlled interrupted time series analysis was conducted on monthly malaria incidence data collected at the health facility level, using a multilevel mixed-effects negative binomial model. Data were analysed two years before and after the PBO ITN campaign in Ebonyi State (December 2017 to November 2021). A pre-post analysis, with no comparison group, was used to assess the impact of PBO ITNs on human biting rates and indoor resting density in Ebonyi during the high transmission season immediately before and after the PBO ITN campaign. RESULTS: In Ebonyi, PBO ITNs were associated with a 46.7% decrease (95%CI: -51.5, -40.8%; p < 0.001) in malaria case incidence in the 2 years after the PBO ITN distribution compared to a modelled scenario of no ITNs distributed, with a significant decrease from 269.6 predicted cases per 1000 population to 143.6. In Cross River, there was a significant 28.6% increase (95%CI: -10.4, 49.1%; p < 0.001) in malaria case incidence following the standard ITN distribution, with an increase from 71.2 predicted cases per 1000 population to 91.6. In Ebonyi, the human biting rate was 72% lower (IRR: 0.28; 95%CI 0.21, 0.39; p < 0.001) and indoor resting density was 73% lower (IRR: 0.27; 95%CI 0.21, 0.35; p < 0.001) after the PBO ITNs were distributed. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological and entomological impact of the PBO ITNs underscore the impact of these ITNs in areas with confirmed pyrethroid resistance. These findings contribute to ongoing research on the impact of new types of ITNs in Nigeria, providing critical evidence for the Nigeria National Malaria Elimination Programme and other countries for future ITN procurement decisions as part of mass ITN campaign planning and malaria programming. |
Antiviral susceptibility of swine-origin influenza a viruses isolated from humans, United States
Gao R , Pascua PNQ , Chesnokov A , Nguyen HT , Uyeki TM , Mishin VP , Zanders N , Cui D , Jang Y , Jones J , La Cruz J , Di H , Davis CT , Gubareva LV . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (11) Since 2013, a total of 167 human infections with swine-origin (variant) influenza A viruses of A(H1N1)v, A(H1N2)v, and A(H3N2)v subtypes have been reported in the United States. Analysis of 147 genome sequences revealed that nearly all had S31N substitution, an M2 channel blocker-resistance marker, whereas neuraminidase inhibitor-resistance markers were not found. Two viruses had a polymerase acidic substitution (I38M or E199G) associated with decreased susceptibility to baloxavir, an inhibitor of viral cap-dependent endonuclease (CEN). Using phenotypic assays, we established subtype-specific susceptibility baselines for neuraminidase and CEN inhibitors. When compared with either baseline or CEN-sequence-matched controls, only the I38M substitution decreased baloxavir susceptibility, by 27-fold. Human monoclonal antibodies FI6v3 and CR9114 targeting the hemagglutinin's stem showed variable (0.03 to >10 µg/mL) neutralizing activity toward variant viruses, even within the same clade. Methodology and interpretation of laboratory data described in this study provide information for risk assessment and decision-making on therapeutic control measures. |
Characterization of avian influenza viruses detected in Kenyan live bird markets and wild bird habitats reveal genetically diverse subtypes and high proportion of A(H9N2), 2018-2020
Munyua P , Osoro E , Jones J , Njogu G , Yang G , Hunsperger E , Szablewski CM , Njoroge R , Marwanga D , Oyas H , Andagalu B , Ndanyi R , Otieno N , Obanda V , Nasimiyu C , Njagi O , DaSilva J , Jang Y , Barnes J , Emukule GO , Onyango CO , Davis CT . Viruses 2024 16 (9) Following the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in countries bordering Kenya to the west, we conducted surveillance among domestic and wild birds along the shores of Lake Victoria. In addition, between 2018 and 2020, we conducted surveillance among poultry and poultry workers in live bird markets and among wild migratory birds in various lakes that are resting sites during migration to assess introduction and circulation of avian influenza viruses in these populations. We tested 7464 specimens (oropharyngeal (OP) and cloacal specimens) from poultry and 6531 fresh fecal specimens from wild birds for influenza A viruses by real-time RT-PCR. Influenza was detected in 3.9% (n = 292) of specimens collected from poultry and 0.2% (n = 10) of fecal specimens from wild birds. On hemagglutinin subtyping, most of the influenza A positives from poultry (274/292, 93.8%) were H9. Of 34 H9 specimens randomly selected for further subtyping, all were H9N2. On phylogenetic analysis, these viruses were genetically similar to other H9 viruses detected in East Africa. Only two of the ten influenza A-positive specimens from the wild bird fecal specimens were successfully subtyped; sequencing analysis of one specimen collected in 2018 was identified as a low-pathogenicity avian influenza H5N2 virus of the Eurasian lineage, and the second specimen, collected in 2020, was subtyped as H11. A total of 18 OP and nasal specimens from poultry workers with acute respiratory illness (12%) were collected; none were positive for influenza A virus. We observed significant circulation of H9N2 influenza viruses in poultry in live bird markets in Kenya. During the same period, low-pathogenic H5N2 virus was detected in a fecal specimen collected in a site hosting a variety of migratory and resident birds. Although HPAI H5N8 was not detected in this survey, these results highlight the potential for the introduction and establishment of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in poultry populations and the associated risk of spillover to human populations. |
Pathogenesis and transmission assessment of three swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) viruses with zoonotic risk to humans isolated in the U.S from 2017-2020
Sun X , Belser JA , Pulit-Penaloza JA , Brock N , Pappas C , Zanders N , Jang Y , Jones J , Tumpey TM , Davis CT , Maines TR . J Infect Dis 2024 229 (4) 1107-1111 The sporadic occurrence of human infections with swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) viruses and the continual emergence of novel A(H3N2) viruses in swine herds underscore the necessity for ongoing assessment of the pandemic risk posed by these viruses. Here, we selected 3 recent novel swine-origin A(H3N2) viruses isolated between 2017 to 2020, bearing hemagglutinins from the 1990.1, 2010.1, or 2010.2 clades, and evaluated their ability to cause disease and transmit in a ferret model. We conclude that despite considerable genetic variances, all 3 contemporary swine-origin A(H3N2) viruses displayed a capacity for robust replication in the ferret respiratory tract and were also capable of limited airborne transmission. These findings highlight the continued public health risk of swine-origin A(H3N2) strains, especially in human populations with low cross-reactive immunity. |
CDC Program Evaluation Framework, 2024
Kidder DP , Fierro LA , Luna E , Salvaggio H , McWhorter A , Bowen SA , Murphy-Hoefer R , Thigpen S , Alexander D , Armstead TL , August E , Bruce D , Clarke SN , Davis C , Downes A , Gill S , House LD , Kerzner M , Kun K , Mumford K , Robin L , Schlueter D , Schooley M , Valverde E , Vo L , Williams D , Young K . MMWR Recomm Rep 2024 73 (6) 1-37 Program evaluation is a critical tool for understanding and improving organizational activities and systems. This report updates the 1999 CDC Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health (CDC. Framework for program evaluation in public health. MMWR Recomm Rep 1999;48[No. RR-11];1-40) by integrating major advancements in the fields of evaluation and public health, lessons learned from practical applications of the original framework, and current Federal agency policies and practices. A practical, nonprescriptive tool, the updated 2024 framework is designed to summarize and organize essential elements of program evaluation, and can be applied at any level from individual programs to broader systems by novices and experts for planning and implementing an evaluation. Although many of the key aspects from the 1999 framework remain, certain key differences exist. For example, this updated framework also includes six steps that describe the general process of evaluation planning and implementation, but some content and step names have changed (e.g., the first step has been renamed Assess context). The standards for high-quality evaluation remain central to the framework, although they have been updated to the five Federal evaluation standards. The most substantial change from the 1999 framework is the addition of three cross-cutting actions that are core tenets to incorporate within each evaluation step: engage collaboratively, advance equity, and learn from and use insights. The 2024 framework provides a guide for designing and conducting evaluation across many topics within and outside of public health that anyone involved in program evaluation efforts can use alone or in conjunction with other evaluation approaches, tools, or methods to build evidence, understand programs, and refine evidence-based decision-making to improve all program outcomes. |
Evidence of lineage 1 and 3 West Nile Virus in person with neuroinvasive disease, Nebraska, USA, 2023
Davis E , Velez J , Hamik J , Fitzpatrick K , Haley J , Eschliman J , Panella A , Staples JE , Lambert A , Donahue M , Brault AC , Hughes HR . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (10) 2090-2098 West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of human arboviral disease in the contiguous United States, where only lineage 1 (L1) WNV had been found. In 2023, an immunocompetent patient was hospitalized in Nebraska with West Nile neuroinvasive disease and multisystem organ failure. Testing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated an unusually high viral load and acute antibody response. Upon sequencing of serum and cerebrospinal fluid, we detected lineage 3 (L3) and L1 WNV genomes. L3 WNV had previously only been found in Central Europe in mosquitoes. The identification of L3 WNV in the United States and the observed clinical and laboratory features raise questions about the potential effect of L3 WNV on the transmission dynamics and pathogenicity of WNV infections. Determining the distribution and prevalence of L3 WNV in the United States and any public health and clinical implications is critical. |
Oropouche virus disease among U.S. travelers - United States, 2024
Morrison A , White JL , Hughes HR , Guagliardo SAJ , Velez JO , Fitzpatrick KA , Davis EH , Stanek D , Kopp E , Dumoulin P , Locksmith T , Heberlein L , Zimler R , Lassen J , Bestard C , Rico E , Mejia-Echeverri A , Edwards-Taylor KA , Holt D , Halphen D , Peters K , Adams C , Nichols AM , Ciota AT , Dupuis AP 2nd , Backenson PB , Lehman JA , Lyons S , Padda H , Connelly RC , Tong VT , Martin SW , Lambert AJ , Brault AC , Blackmore C , Staples JE , Gould CV . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (35) 769-773 Beginning in late 2023, Oropouche virus was identified as the cause of large outbreaks in Amazon regions with known endemic transmission and in new areas in South America and the Caribbean. The virus is spread to humans by infected biting midges and some mosquito species. Although infection typically causes a self-limited febrile illness, reports of two deaths in patients with Oropouche virus infection and vertical transmission associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes have raised concerns about the threat of this virus to human health. In addition to approximately 8,000 locally acquired cases in the Americas, travel-associated Oropouche virus disease cases have recently been identified in European travelers returning from Cuba and Brazil. As of August 16, 2024, a total of 21 Oropouche virus disease cases were identified among U.S. travelers returning from Cuba. Most patients initially experienced fever, myalgia, and headache, often with other symptoms including arthralgia, diarrhea, nausea or vomiting, and rash. At least three patients had recurrent symptoms after the initial illness, a common characteristic of Oropouche virus disease. Clinicians and public health jurisdictions should be aware of the occurrence of Oropouche virus disease in U.S. travelers and request testing for suspected cases. Travelers should prevent insect bites when traveling, and pregnant persons should consider deferring travel to areas experiencing outbreaks of Oropouche virus disease. |
Interventions to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 among people experiencing sheltered homelessness: Chicago, Illinois, March 1, 2020-May 11, 2023
Tietje L , Ghinai I , Cooper A , Tung EL , Borah B , Funk M , Ramachandran D , Gerber B , Man B , Singer R , Bell E , Moss A , Weidemiller A , Chaudhry M , Lendacki F , Bernard R , Gretsch S , English K , Huggett TD , Tornabene M , Cool C , Detmer WM , Schroeter MK , Mayer S , Davis E , Boegner J , Glenn EE , Phillips G 2nd , Falck S , Barranco L , Toews KA . Am J Public Health 2024 e1-e9 Objectives. To compare the incidence, case-hospitalization rates, and vaccination rates of COVID-19 between people experiencing sheltered homelessness (PESH) and the broader community in Chicago, Illinois, and describe the impact of a whole community approach to disease mitigation during the public health emergency. Methods. Incidence of COVID-19 among PESH was compared with community-wide incidence using case-based surveillance data from March 1, 2020, to May 11, 2023. Seven-day rolling means of COVID-19 incidence were assessed for the overall study period and for each of 6 distinct waves of COVID-19 transmission. Results. A total of 774 009 cases of COVID-19 were detected: 2579 among PESH and 771 430 in the broader community. Incidence and hospitalization rates per 100 000 in PESH were more than 5 times higher (99.84 vs 13.94 and 16.88 vs 2.14) than the community at large in wave 1 (March 1, 2020-October 3, 2020). This difference decreased through wave 3 (March 7, 2021-June 26, 2021), with PESH having a lower incidence rate per 100 000 than the wider community (8.02 vs 13.03). Incidence and hospitalization of PESH rose again to rates higher than the broader community in waves 4 through 6 but never returned to wave 1 levels. Throughout the study period, COVID-19 incidence among PESH was 2.88 times higher than that of the community (70.90 vs 24.65), and hospitalization was 4.56 times higher among PESH (7.51 vs 1.65). Conclusions. Our findings suggest that whole-community approaches can minimize disparities in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission between vulnerable populations and the broader community, and reinforce the benefits of a shared approach that include multiple partners when addressing public health emergencies in special populations. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print August 28, 2024:e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307801). |
Cluster of influenza A(H5) cases associated with poultry exposure at two facilities - Colorado, July 2024
Drehoff CC , White EB , Frutos AM , Stringer G , Burakoff A , Comstock N , Cronquist A , Alden N , Armistead I , Kohnen A , Ratnabalasuriar R , Travanty EA , Matzinger SR , Rossheim A , Wellbrock A , Pagano HP , Wang D , Singleton J , Sutter RA , Davis CT , Kniss K , Ellington S , Kirby MK , Reed C , Herlihy R . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (34) 734-739 Persons who work in close contact with dairy cattle and poultry that are infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus are at increased risk for infection. In July 2024, the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment responded to two poultry facilities with HPAI A(H5N1) virus detections in poultry. Across the two facilities, 663 workers assisting with poultry depopulation (i.e., euthanasia) received screening for illness; 109 (16.4%) reported symptoms and consented to testing. Among those who received testing, nine (8.3%) received a positive influenza A(H5) virus test result, and 19 (17.4%) received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. All nine workers who received positive influenza A(H5) test results had conjunctivitis, experienced mild illness, and received oseltamivir. This poultry exposure-associated cluster of human cases of influenza A(H5) is the first reported in the United States. The identification of these cases highlights the ongoing risk to persons who work in close contact with infected animals. Early response to each facility using multidisciplinary, multilingual teams facilitated case-finding, worker screening, and treatment. As the prevalence of HPAI A(H5N1) virus clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 increases, U.S. public health agencies should prepare to rapidly investigate and respond to illness in agricultural workers, including workers with limited access to health care. |
Influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in two dairy farm workers in Michigan
Morse J , Coyle J , Mikesell L , Stoddard B , Eckel S , Weinberg M , Kuo J , Riner D , Margulieux K , Stricklen J , Dover M , Kniss KL , Jang Y , Kirby MK , Frederick JC , Lacek KA , Davis CT , Uyeki TM , Lyon-Callo S , Bagdasarian N . N Engl J Med 2024 |
Epidemiologic and Virologic Characteristics of Influenza in Lao PDR, 2016-2023
Wodniak N , Vilivong K , Khamphaphongphane B , Sengkeopraseuth B , Somoulay V , Chiew M , Ketmayoon P , Jiao M , Phimmasine S , Co KC , Leuangvilay P , Otsu S , Khanthamaly V , Keopaseuth P , Davis WW , Montgomery MP , Xangsayyarath P . Influenza Other Respir Viruses 2024 18 (8) e13353 BACKGROUND: Influenza sentinel surveillance in Lao PDR is used to inform seasonal vaccination programs. This analysis reviews epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza virus infection over 8 years, before and after emergence of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: Data collected for ILI and SARI surveillance during January 2016 through December 2023 were analyzed from nine hospitals. Respiratory specimens from ILI and SARI cases were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza positivity and subtype and lineage. Aggregate counts of outpatient visits and hospitalizations were collected from hospital logbooks. Epidemiologic trends of influenza activity were described, and the proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI and SARI to outpatient and inpatient loads was estimated. RESULTS: Influenza was detected year-round with positivity peaking during September through January and occurring in most years approximately 1 month earlier in the south than the north. After decreasing in 2 years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza positivity increased in 2022 and resumed its typical temporal trend. Influenza-associated ILI contribution to outpatient visits was highest among children ages 5-14 years (3.0% of all outpatient visits in 2023), and influenza-associated SARI contribution to inpatient hospitalizations was highest among children ages 2-4 years (2.2% of all hospitalizations in 2023). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza surveillance in Lao PDR provides clinicians and public health authorities with information on geographic and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. Influenza surveillance data support current vaccination timing and recommendations to vaccinate certain populations, especially young children. |
Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Mathis SM , Webber AE , León TM , Murray EL , Sun M , White LA , Brooks LC , Green A , Hu AJ , Rosenfeld R , Shemetov D , Tibshirani RJ , McDonald DJ , Kandula S , Pei S , Yaari R , Yamana TK , Shaman J , Agarwal P , Balusu S , Gururajan G , Kamarthi H , Prakash BA , Raman R , Zhao Z , Rodríguez A , Meiyappan A , Omar S , Baccam P , Gurung HL , Suchoski BT , Stage SA , Ajelli M , Kummer AG , Litvinova M , Ventura PC , Wadsworth S , Niemi J , Carcelen E , Hill AL , Loo SL , McKee CD , Sato K , Smith C , Truelove S , Jung SM , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , McAndrew T , Ye W , Bosse N , Hlavacek WS , Lin YT , Mallela A , Gibson GC , Chen Y , Lamm SM , Lee J , Posner RG , Perofsky AC , Viboud C , Clemente L , Lu F , Meyer AG , Santillana M , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Ben-Nun M , Riley P , Turtle J , Hulme-Lowe C , Jessa S , Nagraj VP , Turner SD , Williams D , Basu A , Drake JM , Fox SJ , Suez E , Cojocaru MG , Thommes EW , Cramer EY , Gerding A , Stark A , Ray EL , Reich NG , Shandross L , Wattanachit N , Wang Y , Zorn MW , Aawar MA , Srivastava A , Meyers LA , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis BL , Marathe M , Venkatramanan S , Butler P , Farabow A , Ramakrishnan N , Muralidhar N , Reed C , Biggerstaff M , Borchering RK . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 6289 Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change. |
Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination in WHO-defined high-risk populations in Bangladesh
Hassan MZ , Jubayer Biswas MAA , Shirin T , Rahman M , Chowdhury F , Azziz-Baumgartner E , Davis WW , Hussain M . J Glob Health 2024 14 04126 BACKGROUND: Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh. METHODS: We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386. RESULTS: The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds. |
The long-term impact of the Tips From Former Smokers® Campaign on calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW, 2012-2023
Mann NH , Murphy-Hoefer RL , Davis KC , Von Jaglinsky AS , Rodes RM , Beistle DM . Nicotine Tob Res 2024 INTRODUCTION: There is substantial evidence that mass media campaigns increase calls to quitlines and smoking cessation. In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention launched the first federally funded national tobacco education campaign, Tips From Former Smokers® (i.e. Tips), which has since aired television advertisements annually. To date, no studies have examined the long-term effect of a national smoking cessation campaign on quitline calls. This study examined the long-term impact of Tips television ads on calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW from 2012 through 2023. METHODS: Exposure to the Tips campaign was measured using weekly television gross rating points (GRPs) in each U.S. designated market area. We obtained data on calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW from the National Cancer Institute and used linear regression to model calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW, from 2012 through 2023, as a function of weekly media market-level GRPs for Tips television ads. Using the regression model results, we calculated predicted values of calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW across observed GRP values to determine the total additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW that were attributable to the Tips campaign during 2012-2023. RESULTS: Tips GRPs were positively and significantly associated with calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW across all years (b = 39.94, p < 0.001). Based on this association, we estimate the Tips campaign generated nearly 2.1 million additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW during 2012-2023. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to the Tips campaign has consistently and significantly increased calls to tobacco quitlines. IMPLICATIONS: Quitlines provide evidence-based support to help people quit smoking. They have been shown to increase the likelihood of successfully quitting. Mass media campaigns have promoted quitline services, and quitline calls have increased significantly with media promotion. The long-term effect of campaigns - like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Tips From Former Smokers® (i.e. Tips) - on quitline calls has not been determined. From 2012 through 2023, exposure to the Tips campaign is estimated to have generated nearly 2.1 million additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW. This study supports continued use of mass media to promote quitlines. |
Influenza virus circulation and vaccine effectiveness during June 2021–May 2023 in Thailand
Prasert K , Praphasiri P , Nakphook S , Ditsungnoen D , Sapchookul P , Sornwong K , Naosri S , Akkapaiboon Okada P , Suntarattiwong P , Chotpitayasunondh T , Montgomery MP , Davis WW , Pittayawonganon C . Vaccine X 2024 19 Thai Ministry of Public Health recommends influenza vaccination for certain risk groups. We evaluated 2023 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza using surveillance data from nine Thai hospitals and a test-negative design. During June 2022–May 2023, influenza vaccine provided moderate protection against seeking care for influenza illness (adjusted vaccine effectiveness 51%; 95% confidence interval 28–67). Understanding vaccine effectiveness can help guide future antigen selection and support clinicians to make a strong influenza vaccine recommendation to patients. © 2024 The Author(s) |
Funding State and Local Health Departments and Tribal Organizations to implement and evaluate cardiovascular disease public health strategies: A collaborative approach
Minaya-Junca J , Sreedhara M , Lowe Beasley K , Jordan J , Davis R , Tucker-Brown A , Lawton L , Vaughan M , Presley-Cantrell L . J Public Health Manag Pract 2024 30 S1-s5 |
Treatment outcomes for tuberculosis infection and disease among persons deprived of liberty, Uganda, 2020
Lukoye D , Kalamya JN , Awor AC , Gustavson G , Kabanda J , Ferroussier-Davis O , Kajoba C , Kanyamibwa A , Marungu L , Turyahabwe S , Muchuro S , Mills L , Dirlikov E , Nelson LJ . Emerg Infect Dis 2024 30 (7) 1402-1405 We report that unsuccessful treatment outcomes were 11.8% for tuberculosis (TB) disease and 21.8% for TB infection among persons deprived of liberty in Uganda Prisons Service facilities. Remedial efforts should include enhancing referral networks to ensure treatment continuity, strengthening data systems for complete outcome documentation, and prioritizing short-course treatment regimens. |
Serum dioxin levels in a subset of participants of the East Palestine, Ohio train derailment health tracking study
Haynes EN , Eskenazi B , Hilbert TJ , Brancato C , Holland N , Kim C , Calafat AM , Jones R , Davis M , Birnbaum LS , Sjodin A . Environ Sci Techno Lett 2024 A February 3, 2023 train derailment and subsequent burn released hazardous chemicals into East Palestine, Ohio. One potential exposure was polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (cPCBs), collectively referred to as dioxins. Many studies have linked dioxins to numerous health effects. A pilot study was conducted July 17-18, 2023 to assess residents’ serum dioxin levels. Eighteen persons who were White, nonsmokers with a mean age of 55, and 56% female, provided serum for analysis. Measurement of 20 dioxins, furans, and cPCBs congeners was conducted using gas chromatography, isotope dilution, and high-resolution mass spectrometry. A toxic equivalency (TEQ) value for each participant was calculated by multiplying the reported concentration of each congener by its toxic equivalency factor and summing the results. TEQs were compared to 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data by race/ethnicity, sex, and age group. All participants had serum TEQ values either below or within the range of NHANES values. Mean TEQ values were lower in younger age groups; we observed no sex-specific differences. These pilot data demonstrate that although dioxins may have formed during the derailment, exposures to participants did not increase their TEQ values compared with 2011-2012 NHANES. © 2024 American Chemical Society. |
A one health approach for monitoring antimicrobial resistance: developing a national freshwater pilot effort
Franklin AM , Weller DL , Durso LM , Bagley M , Davis BC , Frye JG , Grim CJ , Ibekwe AM , Jahne MA , Keely SP , Kraft AL , McConn BR , Mitchell RM , Ottesen AR , Sharma M , Strain EA , Tadesse DA , Tate H , Wells JE , Williams CF , Cook KL , Kabera C , McDermott PF , Garland JL . Front Water 2024 6 Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a world-wide public health threat that is projected to lead to 10 million annual deaths globally by 2050. The AMR public health issue has led to the development of action plans to combat AMR, including improved antimicrobial stewardship, development of new antimicrobials, and advanced monitoring. The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) led by the United States (U.S) Food and Drug Administration along with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and U.S. Department of Agriculture has monitored antimicrobial resistant bacteria in retail meats, humans, and food animals since the mid 1990's. NARMS is currently exploring an integrated One Health monitoring model recognizing that human, animal, plant, and environmental systems are linked to public health. Since 2020, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has led an interagency NARMS environmental working group (EWG) to implement a surface water AMR monitoring program (SWAM) at watershed and national scales. The NARMS EWG divided the development of the environmental monitoring effort into five areas: (i) defining objectives and questions, (ii) designing study/sampling design, (iii) selecting AMR indicators, (iv) establishing analytical methods, and (v) developing data management/analytics/metadata plans. For each of these areas, the consensus among the scientific community and literature was reviewed and carefully considered prior to the development of this environmental monitoring program. The data produced from the SWAM effort will help develop robust surface water monitoring programs with the goal of assessing public health risks associated with AMR pathogens in surface water (e.g., recreational water exposures), provide a comprehensive picture of how resistant strains are related spatially and temporally within a watershed, and help assess how anthropogenic drivers and intervention strategies impact the transmission of AMR within human, animal, and environmental systems. |
Shared vision for improving outcomes for serious fungal diseases: Report of a patient, caregiver, and clinician summit
Purdie R , Tushla LA , Ferretti J , Castro GK , Watson R , Davis T , Raborg B , Mazi PB , Stroman A , Thomas Jones C , Walsh TJ , Chiller TM , Pappas PG , Meyer J , Spec A . Open Forum Infect Dis 2024 11 (6) ofae226 BACKGROUND: Recently, increasing focus on patient input into research and healthcare improvements has fostered expanded patient-centered advocacy efforts. This first pan-fungal disease summit, part of the MYCology Advocacy, Research, & Education effort, brought together patients, caregivers, and mycology experts to better document patient experiences with invasive fungal disease (IFD) and establish priorities for mycology education, advocacy, and research. METHODS: Patients who had suffered from IFD, their caregivers, clinicians, industry representatives, government officials, and patient advocacy professionals were invited. Patients and caregivers shared their stories and struggles with IFD. Breakout sessions separated mycology experts from patients and caregivers for further discussions to identify commonalities and perceived gaps and to formulate recommendations. The 2 groups then reconvened to develop consensus recommendations. RESULTS: IFD patients and their caregivers shared experiences reflecting the typically lengthy prediagnosis, acute treatment, long-term treatment, and posttreatment recovery stages of IFD. They reported substantial physical, psychological, and financial burdens associated with the IFD experience, particularly related to delayed diagnoses. They reaffirmed a need for coordinated patient-centered education, peer support, and advocacy to document the burden of serious fungal infections. Mycology experts discussed strategies to address gaps in the mycology field, such as insufficient training, inadequate workforce support, and a need to partner more with patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: A summit involving patients with IFD, family caregivers, and mycology experts identified a substantial nonclinical burden of disease associated with IFD. Patients and mycology experts prioritized several goals for education, advocacy, and research to raise awareness of IFD and improve outcomes. |
Outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses in U.S. dairy cattle and detection of two human cases - United States, 2024
Garg S , Reed C , Davis CT , Uyeki TM , Behravesh CB , Kniss K , Budd A , Biggerstaff M , Adjemian J , Barnes JR , Kirby MK , Basler C , Szablewski CM , Richmond-Crum M , Burns E , Limbago B , Daskalakis DC , Armstrong K , Boucher D , Shimabukuro TT , Jhung MA , Olsen SJ , Dugan V . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (21) 501-505 |
Antigenic characterization of circulating and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S. Throughout the Delta to Omicron waves
Di H , Pusch EA , Jones J , Kovacs NA , Hassell N , Sheth M , Lynn KS , Keller MW , Wilson MM , Keong LM , Cui D , Park SH , Chau R , Lacek KA , Liddell JD , Kirby MK , Yang G , Johnson M , Thor S , Zanders N , Feng C , Surie D , DeCuir J , Lester SN , Atherton L , Hicks H , Tamin A , Harcourt JL , Coughlin MM , Self WH , Rhoads JP , Gibbs KW , Hager DN , Shapiro NI , Exline MC , Lauring AS , Rambo-Martin B , Paden CR , Kondor RJ , Lee JS , Barnes JR , Thornburg NJ , Zhou B , Wentworth DE , Davis CT . Vaccines (Basel) 2024 12 (5) Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved into numerous lineages with unique spike mutations and caused multiple epidemics domestically and globally. Although COVID-19 vaccines are available, new variants with the capacity for immune evasion continue to emerge. To understand and characterize the evolution of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) initiated the National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance (NS3) program and has received thousands of SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens from across the nation as part of a genotype to phenotype characterization process. Focus reduction neutralization with various antisera was used to antigenically characterize 143 SARS-CoV-2 Delta, Mu and Omicron subvariants from selected clinical specimens received between May 2021 and February 2023, representing a total of 59 unique spike protein sequences. BA.4/5 subvariants BU.1, BQ.1.1, CR.1.1, CQ.2 and BA.4/5 + D420N + K444T; BA.2.75 subvariants BM.4.1.1, BA.2.75.2, CV.1; and recombinant Omicron variants XBF, XBB.1, XBB.1.5 showed the greatest escape from neutralizing antibodies when analyzed against post third-dose original monovalent vaccinee sera. Post fourth-dose bivalent vaccinee sera provided better protection against those subvariants, but substantial reductions in neutralization titers were still observed, especially among BA.4/5 subvariants with both an N-terminal domain (NTD) deletion and receptor binding domain (RBD) substitutions K444M + N460K and recombinant Omicron variants. This analysis demonstrated a framework for long-term systematic genotype to antigenic characterization of circulating and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., which is critical to assessing their potential impact on the effectiveness of current vaccines and antigen recommendations for future updates. |
Characteristics of healthcare personnel with SARS-CoV-2 infection: 10 emerging infections program sites in the United States, April 2020-December 2021
Chea N , Eure T , Alkis Ramirez R , Zlotorzynska M , Blazek GT , Nadle J , Lee J , Czaja CA , Johnston H , Barter D , Kellogg M , Emanuel C , Meek J , Brackney M , Carswell S , Thomas S , Fridkin SK , Wilson LE , Perlmutter R , Marceaux-Galli K , Fell A , Lovett S , Lim S , Lynfield R , Shrum Davis S , Phipps EC , Sievers M , Dumyati G , Myers C , Hurley C , Licherdell E , Pierce R , Ocampo VLS , Hall EW , Wilson C , Adre C , Kirtz E , Markus TM , Billings K , Plumb ID , Abedi GR , James-Gist J , Magill SS , Grigg CT . Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol 2024 1-9 BACKGROUND: Understanding characteristics of healthcare personnel (HCP) with SARS-CoV-2 infection supports the development and prioritization of interventions to protect this important workforce. We report detailed characteristics of HCP who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from April 20, 2020 through December 31, 2021. METHODS: CDC collaborated with Emerging Infections Program sites in 10 states to interview HCP with SARS-CoV-2 infection (case-HCP) about their demographics, underlying medical conditions, healthcare roles, exposures, personal protective equipment (PPE) use, and COVID-19 vaccination status. We grouped case-HCP by healthcare role. To describe residential social vulnerability, we merged geocoded HCP residential addresses with CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) values at the census tract level. We defined highest and lowest SVI quartiles as high and low social vulnerability, respectively. RESULTS: Our analysis included 7,531 case-HCP. Most case-HCP with roles as certified nursing assistant (CNA) (444, 61.3%), medical assistant (252, 65.3%), or home healthcare worker (HHW) (225, 59.5%) reported their race and ethnicity as either non-Hispanic Black or Hispanic. More than one third of HHWs (166, 45.2%), CNAs (283, 41.7%), and medical assistants (138, 37.9%) reported a residential address in the high social vulnerability category. The proportion of case-HCP who reported using recommended PPE at all times when caring for patients with COVID-19 was lowest among HHWs compared with other roles. CONCLUSIONS: To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in healthcare settings, infection prevention, and control interventions should be specific to HCP roles and educational backgrounds. Additional interventions are needed to address high social vulnerability among HHWs, CNAs, and medical assistants. |
Reemergence of a big brown bat lyssavirus rabies variant in striped skunks in Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, 2021-2023
Gilbert AT , Van Pelt LI , Hastings LA , Gigante CM , Orciari LA , Kelley S , Fitzpatrick K , Condori REC , Li Y , Brunt S , Davis A , Hopken MW , Mankowski CCP , Wallace RM , Rupprecht CE , Chipman RB , Bergman DL . Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis 2024 Background: Throughout the Americas, Lyssavirus rabies (RV) perpetuates as multiple variants among bat and mesocarnivore species. Interspecific RV spillover occurs on occasion, but clusters and viral host shifts are rare. The spillover and host shift of a big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) RV variant Ef-W1 into mesocarnivores was reported previously on several occasions during 2001-2009 in Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, and controlled through rabies vaccination of target wildlife. During autumn 2021, a new cluster of Ef-W1 RV cases infecting striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) was detected from United States Department of Agriculture enhanced rabies surveillance in Flagstaff. The number of Ef-W1 RV spillover cases within a short timeframe suggested the potential for transmission between skunks and an emerging host shift. Materials and Methods: Whole and partial RV genomic sequencing was performed to evaluate the phylogenetic relationships of the 2021-2023 Ef-W1 cases infecting striped skunks with earlier outbreaks. Additionally, real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (rtRT-PCR) was used to opportunistically compare viral RNA loads in brain and salivary gland tissues of naturally infected skunks. Results: Genomic RV sequencing revealed that the origin of the 2021-2023 epizootic of Ef-W1 RV was distinct from the multiple outbreaks detected from 2001-2009. Naturally infected skunks with the Ef-W1 RV showed greater viral RNA loads in the brain, but equivalent viral RNA loads in the mandibular salivary glands, compared to an opportunistic sample of skunks naturally infected with a South-Central skunk RV from northern Colorado, USA. Conclusion: Considering a high risk for onward transmission and spread of the Ef-W1 RV in Flagstaff, public outreach, enhanced rabies surveillance, and control efforts, focused on education, sample characterization, and vaccination, have been ongoing since 2021 to mitigate and prevent the spread and establishment of Ef-W1 RV in mesocarnivores. |
Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020-2021
Lopez VK , Cramer EY , Pagano R , Drake JM , O'Dea EB , Adee M , Ayer T , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller PP , Xiao J , Bracher J , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Ray EL , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Pei S , Shaman J , Yamana TK , Tarasewicz SR , Wilson DJ , Baccam S , Gurung H , Stage S , Suchoski B , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang L , Wang Y , Yu S , Gardner L , Jindal S , Marshall M , Nixon K , Dent J , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Smith CP , Truelove S , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Karlen D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Osthus D , Bian J , Cao W , Gao Z , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Walraven R , Chen J , Gu Q , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Gibson GC , Sheldon D , Srivastava A , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis B , Marathe M , Peddireddy AS , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Wang L , Prasad PV , Walker JW , Webber AE , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2024 20 (5) e1011200 During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making. |
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in a dairy farm worker
Uyeki TM , Milton S , Abdul Hamid C , Reinoso Webb C , Presley SM , Shetty V , Rollo SN , Martinez DL , Rai S , Gonzales ER , Kniss KL , Jang Y , Frederick JC , De La Cruz JA , Liddell J , Di H , Kirby MK , Barnes JR , Davis CT . N Engl J Med 2024 |
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