The sporadic occurrence of human infections with swine-origin influenza A(H3N2) viruses and the continual emergence of novel A(H3N2) viruses in swine herds underscore the necessity for ongoing assessment of the pandemic risk posed by these viruses. Here, we selected 3 recent novel swine-origin A(H3N2) viruses isolated between 2017 to 2020, bearing hemagglutinins from the 1990.1, 2010.1, or 2010.2 clades, and evaluated their ability to cause disease and transmit in a ferret model. We conclude that despite considerable genetic variances, all 3 contemporary swine-origin A(H3N2) viruses displayed a capacity for robust replication in the ferret respiratory tract and were also capable of limited airborne transmission. These findings highlight the continued public health risk of swine-origin A(H3N2) strains, especially in human populations with low cross-reactive immunity.

Following the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus in countries bordering Kenya to the west, we conducted surveillance among domestic and wild birds along the shores of Lake Victoria. In addition, between 2018 and 2020, we conducted surveillance among poultry and poultry workers in live bird markets and among wild migratory birds in various lakes that are resting sites during migration to assess introduction and circulation of avian influenza viruses in these populations. We tested 7464 specimens (oropharyngeal (OP) and cloacal specimens) from poultry and 6531 fresh fecal specimens from wild birds for influenza A viruses by real-time RT-PCR. Influenza was detected in 3.9% (n = 292) of specimens collected from poultry and 0.2% (n = 10) of fecal specimens from wild birds. On hemagglutinin subtyping, most of the influenza A positives from poultry (274/292, 93.8%) were H9. Of 34 H9 specimens randomly selected for further subtyping, all were H9N2. On phylogenetic analysis, these viruses were genetically similar to other H9 viruses detected in East Africa. Only two of the ten influenza A-positive specimens from the wild bird fecal specimens were successfully subtyped; sequencing analysis of one specimen collected in 2018 was identified as a low-pathogenicity avian influenza H5N2 virus of the Eurasian lineage, and the second specimen, collected in 2020, was subtyped as H11. A total of 18 OP and nasal specimens from poultry workers with acute respiratory illness (12%) were collected; none were positive for influenza A virus. We observed significant circulation of H9N2 influenza viruses in poultry in live bird markets in Kenya. During the same period, low-pathogenic H5N2 virus was detected in a fecal specimen collected in a site hosting a variety of migratory and resident birds. Although HPAI H5N8 was not detected in this survey, these results highlight the potential for the introduction and establishment of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in poultry populations and the associated risk of spillover to human populations.

Program evaluation is a critical tool for understanding and improving organizational activities and systems. This report updates the 1999 CDC Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health (CDC. Framework for program evaluation in public health. MMWR Recomm Rep 1999;48[No. RR-11];1-40) by integrating major advancements in the fields of evaluation and public health, lessons learned from practical applications of the original framework, and current Federal agency policies and practices. A practical, nonprescriptive tool, the updated 2024 framework is designed to summarize and organize essential elements of program evaluation, and can be applied at any level from individual programs to broader systems by novices and experts for planning and implementing an evaluation. Although many of the key aspects from the 1999 framework remain, certain key differences exist. For example, this updated framework also includes six steps that describe the general process of evaluation planning and implementation, but some content and step names have changed (e.g., the first step has been renamed Assess context). The standards for high-quality evaluation remain central to the framework, although they have been updated to the five Federal evaluation standards. The most substantial change from the 1999 framework is the addition of three cross-cutting actions that are core tenets to incorporate within each evaluation step: engage collaboratively, advance equity, and learn from and use insights. The 2024 framework provides a guide for designing and conducting evaluation across many topics within and outside of public health that anyone involved in program evaluation efforts can use alone or in conjunction with other evaluation approaches, tools, or methods to build evidence, understand programs, and refine evidence-based decision-making to improve all program outcomes.

West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of human arboviral disease in the contiguous United States, where only lineage 1 (L1) WNV had been found. In 2023, an immunocompetent patient was hospitalized in Nebraska with West Nile neuroinvasive disease and multisystem organ failure. Testing at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicated an unusually high viral load and acute antibody response. Upon sequencing of serum and cerebrospinal fluid, we detected lineage 3 (L3) and L1 WNV genomes. L3 WNV had previously only been found in Central Europe in mosquitoes. The identification of L3 WNV in the United States and the observed clinical and laboratory features raise questions about the potential effect of L3 WNV on the transmission dynamics and pathogenicity of WNV infections. Determining the distribution and prevalence of L3 WNV in the United States and any public health and clinical implications is critical.

Beginning in late 2023, Oropouche virus was identified as the cause of large outbreaks in Amazon regions with known endemic transmission and in new areas in South America and the Caribbean. The virus is spread to humans by infected biting midges and some mosquito species. Although infection typically causes a self-limited febrile illness, reports of two deaths in patients with Oropouche virus infection and vertical transmission associated with adverse pregnancy outcomes have raised concerns about the threat of this virus to human health. In addition to approximately 8,000 locally acquired cases in the Americas, travel-associated Oropouche virus disease cases have recently been identified in European travelers returning from Cuba and Brazil. As of August 16, 2024, a total of 21 Oropouche virus disease cases were identified among U.S. travelers returning from Cuba. Most patients initially experienced fever, myalgia, and headache, often with other symptoms including arthralgia, diarrhea, nausea or vomiting, and rash. At least three patients had recurrent symptoms after the initial illness, a common characteristic of Oropouche virus disease. Clinicians and public health jurisdictions should be aware of the occurrence of Oropouche virus disease in U.S. travelers and request testing for suspected cases. Travelers should prevent insect bites when traveling, and pregnant persons should consider deferring travel to areas experiencing outbreaks of Oropouche virus disease.

Objectives. To compare the incidence, case-hospitalization rates, and vaccination rates of COVID-19 between people experiencing sheltered homelessness (PESH) and the broader community in Chicago, Illinois, and describe the impact of a whole community approach to disease mitigation during the public health emergency. Methods. Incidence of COVID-19 among PESH was compared with community-wide incidence using case-based surveillance data from March 1, 2020, to May 11, 2023. Seven-day rolling means of COVID-19 incidence were assessed for the overall study period and for each of 6 distinct waves of COVID-19 transmission. Results. A total of 774 009 cases of COVID-19 were detected: 2579 among PESH and 771 430 in the broader community. Incidence and hospitalization rates per 100 000 in PESH were more than 5 times higher (99.84 vs 13.94 and 16.88 vs 2.14) than the community at large in wave 1 (March 1, 2020-October 3, 2020). This difference decreased through wave 3 (March 7, 2021-June 26, 2021), with PESH having a lower incidence rate per 100 000 than the wider community (8.02 vs 13.03). Incidence and hospitalization of PESH rose again to rates higher than the broader community in waves 4 through 6 but never returned to wave 1 levels. Throughout the study period, COVID-19 incidence among PESH was 2.88 times higher than that of the community (70.90 vs 24.65), and hospitalization was 4.56 times higher among PESH (7.51 vs 1.65). Conclusions. Our findings suggest that whole-community approaches can minimize disparities in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission between vulnerable populations and the broader community, and reinforce the benefits of a shared approach that include multiple partners when addressing public health emergencies in special populations. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print August 28, 2024:e1-e9. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307801).

Persons who work in close contact with dairy cattle and poultry that are infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) virus are at increased risk for infection. In July 2024, the Colorado Department of Public Health & Environment responded to two poultry facilities with HPAI A(H5N1) virus detections in poultry. Across the two facilities, 663 workers assisting with poultry depopulation (i.e., euthanasia) received screening for illness; 109 (16.4%) reported symptoms and consented to testing. Among those who received testing, nine (8.3%) received a positive influenza A(H5) virus test result, and 19 (17.4%) received a positive SARS-CoV-2 test result. All nine workers who received positive influenza A(H5) test results had conjunctivitis, experienced mild illness, and received oseltamivir. This poultry exposure-associated cluster of human cases of influenza A(H5) is the first reported in the United States. The identification of these cases highlights the ongoing risk to persons who work in close contact with infected animals. Early response to each facility using multidisciplinary, multilingual teams facilitated case-finding, worker screening, and treatment. As the prevalence of HPAI A(H5N1) virus clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13 increases, U.S. public health agencies should prepare to rapidly investigate and respond to illness in agricultural workers, including workers with limited access to health care.

BACKGROUND: Influenza sentinel surveillance in Lao PDR is used to inform seasonal vaccination programs. This analysis reviews epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza virus infection over 8 years, before and after emergence of SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: Data collected for ILI and SARI surveillance during January 2016 through December 2023 were analyzed from nine hospitals. Respiratory specimens from ILI and SARI cases were tested by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction to determine influenza positivity and subtype and lineage. Aggregate counts of outpatient visits and hospitalizations were collected from hospital logbooks. Epidemiologic trends of influenza activity were described, and the proportional contribution of influenza-associated ILI and SARI to outpatient and inpatient loads was estimated. RESULTS: Influenza was detected year-round with positivity peaking during September through January and occurring in most years approximately 1 month earlier in the south than the north. After decreasing in 2 years following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, influenza positivity increased in 2022 and resumed its typical temporal trend. Influenza-associated ILI contribution to outpatient visits was highest among children ages 5-14 years (3.0% of all outpatient visits in 2023), and influenza-associated SARI contribution to inpatient hospitalizations was highest among children ages 2-4 years (2.2% of all hospitalizations in 2023). CONCLUSIONS: Influenza surveillance in Lao PDR provides clinicians and public health authorities with information on geographic and temporal patterns of influenza transmission. Influenza surveillance data support current vaccination timing and recommendations to vaccinate certain populations, especially young children.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh. METHODS: We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386. RESULTS: The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds.

INTRODUCTION: There is substantial evidence that mass media campaigns increase calls to quitlines and smoking cessation. In 2012, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention launched the first federally funded national tobacco education campaign, Tips From Former Smokers® (i.e. Tips), which has since aired television advertisements annually. To date, no studies have examined the long-term effect of a national smoking cessation campaign on quitline calls. This study examined the long-term impact of Tips television ads on calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW from 2012 through 2023. METHODS: Exposure to the Tips campaign was measured using weekly television gross rating points (GRPs) in each U.S. designated market area. We obtained data on calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW from the National Cancer Institute and used linear regression to model calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW, from 2012 through 2023, as a function of weekly media market-level GRPs for Tips television ads. Using the regression model results, we calculated predicted values of calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW across observed GRP values to determine the total additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW that were attributable to the Tips campaign during 2012-2023. RESULTS: Tips GRPs were positively and significantly associated with calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW across all years (b = 39.94, p < 0.001). Based on this association, we estimate the Tips campaign generated nearly 2.1 million additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW during 2012-2023. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to the Tips campaign has consistently and significantly increased calls to tobacco quitlines. IMPLICATIONS: Quitlines provide evidence-based support to help people quit smoking. They have been shown to increase the likelihood of successfully quitting. Mass media campaigns have promoted quitline services, and quitline calls have increased significantly with media promotion. The long-term effect of campaigns - like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Tips From Former Smokers® (i.e. Tips) - on quitline calls has not been determined. From 2012 through 2023, exposure to the Tips campaign is estimated to have generated nearly 2.1 million additional calls to 1-800-QUIT-NOW. This study supports continued use of mass media to promote quitlines.

Thai Ministry of Public Health recommends influenza vaccination for certain risk groups. We evaluated 2023 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine effectiveness against medically attended influenza using surveillance data from nine Thai hospitals and a test-negative design. During June 2022–May 2023, influenza vaccine provided moderate protection against seeking care for influenza illness (adjusted vaccine effectiveness 51%; 95% confidence interval 28–67). Understanding vaccine effectiveness can help guide future antigen selection and support clinicians to make a strong influenza vaccine recommendation to patients. © 2024 The Author(s)

We report that unsuccessful treatment outcomes were 11.8% for tuberculosis (TB) disease and 21.8% for TB infection among persons deprived of liberty in Uganda Prisons Service facilities. Remedial efforts should include enhancing referral networks to ensure treatment continuity, strengthening data systems for complete outcome documentation, and prioritizing short-course treatment regimens.

A February 3, 2023 train derailment and subsequent burn released hazardous chemicals into East Palestine, Ohio. One potential exposure was polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and coplanar polychlorinated biphenyls (cPCBs), collectively referred to as dioxins. Many studies have linked dioxins to numerous health effects. A pilot study was conducted July 17-18, 2023 to assess residents’ serum dioxin levels. Eighteen persons who were White, nonsmokers with a mean age of 55, and 56% female, provided serum for analysis. Measurement of 20 dioxins, furans, and cPCBs congeners was conducted using gas chromatography, isotope dilution, and high-resolution mass spectrometry. A toxic equivalency (TEQ) value for each participant was calculated by multiplying the reported concentration of each congener by its toxic equivalency factor and summing the results. TEQs were compared to 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data by race/ethnicity, sex, and age group. All participants had serum TEQ values either below or within the range of NHANES values. Mean TEQ values were lower in younger age groups; we observed no sex-specific differences. These pilot data demonstrate that although dioxins may have formed during the derailment, exposures to participants did not increase their TEQ values compared with 2011-2012 NHANES. © 2024 American Chemical Society.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a world-wide public health threat that is projected to lead to 10 million annual deaths globally by 2050. The AMR public health issue has led to the development of action plans to combat AMR, including improved antimicrobial stewardship, development of new antimicrobials, and advanced monitoring. The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) led by the United States (U.S) Food and Drug Administration along with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and U.S. Department of Agriculture has monitored antimicrobial resistant bacteria in retail meats, humans, and food animals since the mid 1990's. NARMS is currently exploring an integrated One Health monitoring model recognizing that human, animal, plant, and environmental systems are linked to public health. Since 2020, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has led an interagency NARMS environmental working group (EWG) to implement a surface water AMR monitoring program (SWAM) at watershed and national scales. The NARMS EWG divided the development of the environmental monitoring effort into five areas: (i) defining objectives and questions, (ii) designing study/sampling design, (iii) selecting AMR indicators, (iv) establishing analytical methods, and (v) developing data management/analytics/metadata plans. For each of these areas, the consensus among the scientific community and literature was reviewed and carefully considered prior to the development of this environmental monitoring program. The data produced from the SWAM effort will help develop robust surface water monitoring programs with the goal of assessing public health risks associated with AMR pathogens in surface water (e.g., recreational water exposures), provide a comprehensive picture of how resistant strains are related spatially and temporally within a watershed, and help assess how anthropogenic drivers and intervention strategies impact the transmission of AMR within human, animal, and environmental systems.

BACKGROUND: Recently, increasing focus on patient input into research and healthcare improvements has fostered expanded patient-centered advocacy efforts. This first pan-fungal disease summit, part of the MYCology Advocacy, Research, & Education effort, brought together patients, caregivers, and mycology experts to better document patient experiences with invasive fungal disease (IFD) and establish priorities for mycology education, advocacy, and research. METHODS: Patients who had suffered from IFD, their caregivers, clinicians, industry representatives, government officials, and patient advocacy professionals were invited. Patients and caregivers shared their stories and struggles with IFD. Breakout sessions separated mycology experts from patients and caregivers for further discussions to identify commonalities and perceived gaps and to formulate recommendations. The 2 groups then reconvened to develop consensus recommendations. RESULTS: IFD patients and their caregivers shared experiences reflecting the typically lengthy prediagnosis, acute treatment, long-term treatment, and posttreatment recovery stages of IFD. They reported substantial physical, psychological, and financial burdens associated with the IFD experience, particularly related to delayed diagnoses. They reaffirmed a need for coordinated patient-centered education, peer support, and advocacy to document the burden of serious fungal infections. Mycology experts discussed strategies to address gaps in the mycology field, such as insufficient training, inadequate workforce support, and a need to partner more with patient groups. CONCLUSIONS: A summit involving patients with IFD, family caregivers, and mycology experts identified a substantial nonclinical burden of disease associated with IFD. Patients and mycology experts prioritized several goals for education, advocacy, and research to raise awareness of IFD and improve outcomes.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved into numerous lineages with unique spike mutations and caused multiple epidemics domestically and globally. Although COVID-19 vaccines are available, new variants with the capacity for immune evasion continue to emerge. To understand and characterize the evolution of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) initiated the National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance (NS3) program and has received thousands of SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens from across the nation as part of a genotype to phenotype characterization process. Focus reduction neutralization with various antisera was used to antigenically characterize 143 SARS-CoV-2 Delta, Mu and Omicron subvariants from selected clinical specimens received between May 2021 and February 2023, representing a total of 59 unique spike protein sequences. BA.4/5 subvariants BU.1, BQ.1.1, CR.1.1, CQ.2 and BA.4/5 + D420N + K444T; BA.2.75 subvariants BM.4.1.1, BA.2.75.2, CV.1; and recombinant Omicron variants XBF, XBB.1, XBB.1.5 showed the greatest escape from neutralizing antibodies when analyzed against post third-dose original monovalent vaccinee sera. Post fourth-dose bivalent vaccinee sera provided better protection against those subvariants, but substantial reductions in neutralization titers were still observed, especially among BA.4/5 subvariants with both an N-terminal domain (NTD) deletion and receptor binding domain (RBD) substitutions K444M + N460K and recombinant Omicron variants. This analysis demonstrated a framework for long-term systematic genotype to antigenic characterization of circulating and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., which is critical to assessing their potential impact on the effectiveness of current vaccines and antigen recommendations for future updates.

BACKGROUND: Understanding characteristics of healthcare personnel (HCP) with SARS-CoV-2 infection supports the development and prioritization of interventions to protect this important workforce. We report detailed characteristics of HCP who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from April 20, 2020 through December 31, 2021. METHODS: CDC collaborated with Emerging Infections Program sites in 10 states to interview HCP with SARS-CoV-2 infection (case-HCP) about their demographics, underlying medical conditions, healthcare roles, exposures, personal protective equipment (PPE) use, and COVID-19 vaccination status. We grouped case-HCP by healthcare role. To describe residential social vulnerability, we merged geocoded HCP residential addresses with CDC/ATSDR Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) values at the census tract level. We defined highest and lowest SVI quartiles as high and low social vulnerability, respectively. RESULTS: Our analysis included 7,531 case-HCP. Most case-HCP with roles as certified nursing assistant (CNA) (444, 61.3%), medical assistant (252, 65.3%), or home healthcare worker (HHW) (225, 59.5%) reported their race and ethnicity as either non-Hispanic Black or Hispanic. More than one third of HHWs (166, 45.2%), CNAs (283, 41.7%), and medical assistants (138, 37.9%) reported a residential address in the high social vulnerability category. The proportion of case-HCP who reported using recommended PPE at all times when caring for patients with COVID-19 was lowest among HHWs compared with other roles. CONCLUSIONS: To mitigate SARS-CoV-2 infection risk in healthcare settings, infection prevention, and control interventions should be specific to HCP roles and educational backgrounds. Additional interventions are needed to address high social vulnerability among HHWs, CNAs, and medical assistants.

Background: Throughout the Americas, Lyssavirus rabies (RV) perpetuates as multiple variants among bat and mesocarnivore species. Interspecific RV spillover occurs on occasion, but clusters and viral host shifts are rare. The spillover and host shift of a big brown bat (Eptesicus fuscus) RV variant Ef-W1 into mesocarnivores was reported previously on several occasions during 2001-2009 in Flagstaff, Arizona, USA, and controlled through rabies vaccination of target wildlife. During autumn 2021, a new cluster of Ef-W1 RV cases infecting striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) was detected from United States Department of Agriculture enhanced rabies surveillance in Flagstaff. The number of Ef-W1 RV spillover cases within a short timeframe suggested the potential for transmission between skunks and an emerging host shift. Materials and Methods: Whole and partial RV genomic sequencing was performed to evaluate the phylogenetic relationships of the 2021-2023 Ef-W1 cases infecting striped skunks with earlier outbreaks. Additionally, real-time reverse-transcriptase PCR (rtRT-PCR) was used to opportunistically compare viral RNA loads in brain and salivary gland tissues of naturally infected skunks. Results: Genomic RV sequencing revealed that the origin of the 2021-2023 epizootic of Ef-W1 RV was distinct from the multiple outbreaks detected from 2001-2009. Naturally infected skunks with the Ef-W1 RV showed greater viral RNA loads in the brain, but equivalent viral RNA loads in the mandibular salivary glands, compared to an opportunistic sample of skunks naturally infected with a South-Central skunk RV from northern Colorado, USA. Conclusion: Considering a high risk for onward transmission and spread of the Ef-W1 RV in Flagstaff, public outreach, enhanced rabies surveillance, and control efforts, focused on education, sample characterization, and vaccination, have been ongoing since 2021 to mitigate and prevent the spread and establishment of Ef-W1 RV in mesocarnivores.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

As population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 evolves and new variants emerge, the role and accuracy of antigen tests remain active questions. To describe recent test performance, the detection of SARS-CoV-2 by antigen testing was compared with that by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and viral culture testing during November 2022-May 2023. Participants who were enrolled in a household transmission study completed daily symptom diaries and collected two nasal swabs (tested for SARS-CoV-2 via RT-PCR, culture, and antigen tests) each day for 10 days after enrollment. Among participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection, the percentages of positive antigen, RT-PCR, and culture results were calculated each day from the onset of symptoms or, in asymptomatic persons, from the date of the first positive test result. Antigen test sensitivity was calculated using RT-PCR and viral culture as references. The peak percentage of positive antigen (59.0%) and RT-PCR (83.0%) results occurred 3 days after onset, and the peak percentage of positive culture results (52%) occurred 2 days after onset. The sensitivity of antigen tests was 47% (95% CI = 44%-50%) and 80% (95% CI = 76%-85%) using RT-PCR and culture, respectively, as references. Clinicians should be aware of the lower sensitivity of antigen testing compared with RT-PCR, which might lead to false-negative results. This finding has implications for timely initiation of SARS-CoV-2 antiviral treatment, when early diagnosis is essential; clinicians should consider RT-PCR for persons for whom antiviral treatment is recommended. Persons in the community who are at high risk for severe COVID-19 illness and eligible for antiviral treatment should seek testing from health care providers with the goal of obtaining a more sensitive diagnostic test than antigen tests (i.e., an RT-PCR test).

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease in humans, and cases are continuing to rise globally. In particular, islands in the Caribbean have experienced more frequent outbreaks, and all four dengue virus (DENV) serotypes have been reported in the region, leading to hyperendemicity and increased rates of severe disease. However, there is significant variability regarding virus surveillance and reporting between islands, making it difficult to obtain an accurate understanding of the epidemiological patterns in the Caribbean. To investigate this, we used travel surveillance and genomic epidemiology to reconstruct outbreak dynamics, DENV serotype turnover, and patterns of spread within the region from 2009-2022. We uncovered two recent DENV-3 introductions from Asia, one of which resulted in a large outbreak in Cuba, which was previously under-reported. We also show that while outbreaks can be synchronized between islands, they are often caused by different serotypes. Our study highlights the importance of surveillance of infected travelers to provide a snapshot of local introductions and transmission in areas with limited local surveillance and suggests that the recent DENV-3 introductions may pose a major public health threat in the region.

IMPORTANCE: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection can cause severe respiratory illness in older adults. Less is known about the cardiac complications of RSV disease compared with those of influenza and SARS-CoV-2 infection. OBJECTIVE: To describe the prevalence and severity of acute cardiac events during hospitalizations among adults aged 50 years or older with RSV infection. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study analyzed surveillance data from the RSV Hospitalization Surveillance Network, which conducts detailed medical record abstraction among hospitalized patients with RSV infection detected through clinician-directed laboratory testing. Cases of RSV infection in adults aged 50 years or older within 12 states over 5 RSV seasons (annually from 2014-2015 through 2017-2018 and 2022-2023) were examined to estimate the weighted period prevalence and 95% CIs of acute cardiac events. EXPOSURES: Acute cardiac events, identified by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, Clinical Modification or International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification discharge codes, and discharge summary review. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Severe disease outcomes, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, receipt of invasive mechanical ventilation, or in-hospital death. Adjusted risk ratios (ARR) were calculated to compare severe outcomes among patients with and without acute cardiac events. RESULTS: The study included 6248 hospitalized adults (median [IQR] age, 72.7 [63.0-82.3] years; 59.6% female; 56.4% with underlying cardiovascular disease) with laboratory-confirmed RSV infection. The weighted estimated prevalence of experiencing a cardiac event was 22.4% (95% CI, 21.0%-23.7%). The weighted estimated prevalence was 15.8% (95% CI, 14.6%-17.0%) for acute heart failure, 7.5% (95% CI, 6.8%-8.3%) for acute ischemic heart disease, 1.3% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.7%) for hypertensive crisis, 1.1% (95% CI, 0.8%-1.4%) for ventricular tachycardia, and 0.6% (95% CI, 0.4%-0.8%) for cardiogenic shock. Adults with underlying cardiovascular disease had a greater risk of experiencing an acute cardiac event relative to those who did not (33.0% vs 8.5%; ARR, 3.51; 95% CI, 2.85-4.32). Among all hospitalized adults with RSV infection, 18.6% required ICU admission and 4.9% died during hospitalization. Compared with patients without an acute cardiac event, those who experienced an acute cardiac event had a greater risk of ICU admission (25.8% vs 16.5%; ARR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.23-1.93) and in-hospital death (8.1% vs 4.0%; ARR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.36-2.31). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this cross-sectional study over 5 RSV seasons, nearly one-quarter of hospitalized adults aged 50 years or older with RSV infection experienced an acute cardiac event (most frequently acute heart failure), including 1 in 12 adults (8.5%) with no documented underlying cardiovascular disease. The risk of severe outcomes was nearly twice as high in patients with acute cardiac events compared with patients who did not experience an acute cardiac event. These findings clarify the baseline epidemiology of potential cardiac complications of RSV infection prior to RSV vaccine availability.

BACKGROUND: Persistent human papillomavirus (HPV) infection can cause anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers. Many HPV infections and HPV-associated cancers are vaccine-preventable. Studies suggest long-term persistence of vaccine-induced antibodies. However, data are limited among Alaska Native people. METHODS: During 2011-2014, we enrolled Alaska Native children aged 9-14 years who received a 3-dose series of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV). We collected sera at 1 month and 1, 2, 3, and 5 years post-vaccination to evaluate trends in type-specific immunoglobulin G antibody concentrations for the 4vHPV types (HPV 6/11/16/18). RESULTS: All participants (N = 469) had detectable antibodies against all 4vHPV types at all timepoints post-vaccination. For all 4vHPV types, antibody levels peaked by 1 month post-vaccination and gradually declined in subsequent years. At 5 years post-vaccination, antibody levels were higher among children who received 4vHPV at a younger age. CONCLUSIONS: Alaska Native children maintained antibodies against all 4vHPV types at 5 years post-vaccination.

INTRODUCTION: a district health information system 2 tool with a customized routine immunization (RI) module and indicator dashboard was introduced in Kano State, Nigeria, in November 2014 to improve data management and analysis of RI services. We assessed the use of the module for program monitoring and decision-making, as well as the enabling factors and barriers to data collection and use. METHODS: a mixed-methods approach was used to assess user experience with the RI data module and dashboard, including 1) a semi-structured survey questionnaire administered at 60 health facilities administering vaccinations and 2) focus group discussions and 16 in-depth interviews conducted with immunization program staff members at the local government area (LGA) and state levels. RESULTS: in health facilities, a RI monitoring chart was used to review progress toward meeting vaccination coverage targets. At the LGA, staff members used RI dashboard data to prioritize health facilities for additional support. At the State level, immunization program staff members use RI data to make policy decisions. They viewed the provision of real-time data through the RI dashboard as a "game changer". Use of immunization data is facilitated through review meetings and supportive supervision visits. Barriers to data use among LGA staff members included inadequate understanding of the data collection tools and computer illiteracy. CONCLUSION: the routine immunization data dashboard facilitated access to and use of data for decision-making at the LGA, State and national levels, however, use at the health facility level remains limited. Ongoing data review meetings and training on computer skills and data collection tools are recommended.