Over 40% of all U.S. Salmonella illnesses are attributed to consumption of contaminated meat and poultry products each year. Determining which serotypes cause the most outbreak illnesses associated with specific meat and poultry types can inform prevention measures. We developed an approach to categorize serotypes using outbreak illness burden (high, moderate, low) and trajectory (increased, stable, decreased). We used data from 192 foodborne Salmonella outbreaks resulting in 7,077 illnesses, 1,330 hospitalizations, and 9 deaths associated with chicken, turkey, beef, or pork during 2012-2021. We linked each meat and poultry type to 1-3 serotypes that we categorized high outbreak illness burden and increased trajectory during 2021. Calculation and public display of outbreak illness burden and trajectory annually could facilitate prioritization of serotypes for prevention by federal and state health and regulatory agencies and by the meat and poultry industry.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has evolved into numerous lineages with unique spike mutations and caused multiple epidemics domestically and globally. Although COVID-19 vaccines are available, new variants with the capacity for immune evasion continue to emerge. To understand and characterize the evolution of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) initiated the National SARS-CoV-2 Strain Surveillance (NS3) program and has received thousands of SARS-CoV-2 clinical specimens from across the nation as part of a genotype to phenotype characterization process. Focus reduction neutralization with various antisera was used to antigenically characterize 143 SARS-CoV-2 Delta, Mu and Omicron subvariants from selected clinical specimens received between May 2021 and February 2023, representing a total of 59 unique spike protein sequences. BA.4/5 subvariants BU.1, BQ.1.1, CR.1.1, CQ.2 and BA.4/5 + D420N + K444T; BA.2.75 subvariants BM.4.1.1, BA.2.75.2, CV.1; and recombinant Omicron variants XBF, XBB.1, XBB.1.5 showed the greatest escape from neutralizing antibodies when analyzed against post third-dose original monovalent vaccinee sera. Post fourth-dose bivalent vaccinee sera provided better protection against those subvariants, but substantial reductions in neutralization titers were still observed, especially among BA.4/5 subvariants with both an N-terminal domain (NTD) deletion and receptor binding domain (RBD) substitutions K444M + N460K and recombinant Omicron variants. This analysis demonstrated a framework for long-term systematic genotype to antigenic characterization of circulating and emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in the U.S., which is critical to assessing their potential impact on the effectiveness of current vaccines and antigen recommendations for future updates.

BACKGROUND: The Global COVID Vaccine Safety (GCoVS) Project, established in 2021 under the multinational Global Vaccine Data Network™ (GVDN®), facilitates comprehensive assessment of vaccine safety. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of adverse events of special interest (AESI) following COVID-19 vaccination from 10 sites across eight countries. METHODS: Using a common protocol, this observational cohort study compared observed with expected rates of 13 selected AESI across neurological, haematological, and cardiac outcomes. Expected rates were obtained by participating sites using pre-COVID-19 vaccination healthcare data stratified by age and sex. Observed rates were reported from the same healthcare datasets since COVID-19 vaccination program rollout. AESI occurring up to 42 days following vaccination with mRNA (BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273) and adenovirus-vector (ChAdOx1) vaccines were included in the primary analysis. Risks were assessed using observed versus expected (OE) ratios with 95 % confidence intervals. Prioritised potential safety signals were those with lower bound of the 95 % confidence interval (LBCI) greater than 1.5. RESULTS: Participants included 99,068,901 vaccinated individuals. In total, 183,559,462 doses of BNT162b2, 36,178,442 doses of mRNA-1273, and 23,093,399 doses of ChAdOx1 were administered across participating sites in the study period. Risk periods following homologous vaccination schedules contributed 23,168,335 person-years of follow-up. OE ratios with LBCI > 1.5 were observed for Guillain-Barré syndrome (2.49, 95 % CI: 2.15, 2.87) and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (3.23, 95 % CI: 2.51, 4.09) following the first dose of ChAdOx1 vaccine. Acute disseminated encephalomyelitis showed an OE ratio of 3.78 (95 % CI: 1.52, 7.78) following the first dose of mRNA-1273 vaccine. The OE ratios for myocarditis and pericarditis following BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and ChAdOx1 were significantly increased with LBCIs > 1.5. CONCLUSION: This multi-country analysis confirmed pre-established safety signals for myocarditis, pericarditis, Guillain-Barré syndrome, and cerebral venous sinus thrombosis. Other potential safety signals that require further investigation were identified.

Clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) viruses have caused large outbreaks within avian populations on five continents, with concurrent spillover into a variety of mammalian species. Mutations associated with mammalian adaptation have been sporadically identified in avian isolates, and more frequently among mammalian isolates following infection. Reports of human infection with A(H5N1) viruses following contact with infected wildlife have been reported on multiple continents, highlighting the need for pandemic risk assessment of these viruses. In this study, the pathogenicity and transmissibility of A/Chile/25945/2023 HPAI A(H5N1) virus, a novel reassortment with four gene segments (PB1, PB2, NP, MP) from North America lineage, isolated from a severe human case in Chile, was evaluated in vitro and using the ferret model. This virus possessed a high capacity to cause fatal disease, characterized by high morbidity and extrapulmonary spread in virus-inoculated ferrets. The virus was capable of transmission to naïve contacts in a direct contact setting, with contact animals similarly exhibiting severe disease, but did not exhibit productive transmission in respiratory droplet or fomite transmission models. Our results indicate that the virus would need to acquire an airborne transmissible phenotype in mammals to potentially cause a pandemic. Nonetheless, this work warrants continuous monitoring of mammalian adaptations in avian viruses, especially in strains isolated from humans, to aid pandemic preparedness efforts.

The epidemiologic and genetic characteristics of mumps viruses detected in China from 1995 to 2010 were analyzed in this study. Mumps remains endemic in China with a high overall incidence rate. The incidence of mumps in Western China was higher than that in other regions of the country. Each year, most of mumps cases occurred between April and July, but a small peak also occurred in November and December. Mumps cases primarily affected the under 15 year old age group. Virologic data demonstrated that genotype F was the predominant circulating genotype throughout China for at least 15 years and no other genotype was detected between 1995 and 2010. Analysis of sequence data from the small hydrophobic (SH) gene indicated that multiple transmission chains of genotype F were found in various provinces of China, with no apparent chronologic and geographic restriction. This is the first report describing the epidemiology of mumps and genetic characterization of mumps viruses at the national level in China.

Definitive diagnosis of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD) relies on the examination of brain tissues for the pathological prion protein (PrP(Sc)). Our previous study revealed that PrP(Sc)-seeding activity (PrP(Sc)-SA) is detectable in skin of sCJD patients by an ultrasensitive PrP(Sc) seed amplification assay (PrP(Sc)-SAA) known as real-time quaking-induced conversion (RT-QuIC). A total of 875 skin samples were collected from 2 cohorts (1 and 2) at autopsy from 2-3 body areas of 339 cases with neuropathologically confirmed prion diseases and non-sCJD controls. The skin samples were analyzed for PrP(Sc)-SA by RT-QuIC assay. The results were compared with demographic information, clinical manifestations, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) PrP(Sc)-SA, other laboratory tests, subtypes of prion diseases defined by the methionine (M) or valine (V) polymorphism at residue 129 of PrP, PrP(Sc) types (#1 or #2), and gene mutations in deceased patients. RT-QuIC assays of the cohort #1 by two independent laboratories gave 87.3% or 91.3% sensitivity and 94.7% or 100% specificity, respectively. The cohort #2 showed sensitivity of 89.4% and specificity of 95.5%. RT-QuIC of CSF available from 212 cases gave 89.7% sensitivity and 94.1% specificity. The sensitivity of skin RT-QuIC was subtype dependent, being highest in sCJDVV1-2 subtype, followed by VV2, MV1-2, MV1, MV2, MM1, MM1-2, MM2, and VV1. The skin area next to the ear gave highest sensitivity, followed by lower back and apex of the head. Although no difference in brain PrP(Sc)-SA was detected between the cases with false negative and true positive skin RT-QuIC results, the disease duration was significantly longer with the false negatives [12.0 ± 13.3 (months, SD) vs. 6.5 ± 6.4, p < 0.001]. Our study validates skin PrP(Sc)-SA as a biomarker for the detection of prion diseases, which is influenced by the PrP(Sc) types, PRNP 129 polymorphisms, dermatome sampled, and disease duration.

The SARS-CoV-2 main protease (M(pro)) has been proven to be a highly effective target for therapeutic intervention, yet only one drug currently holds FDA approval status for this target. We were inspired by a series of publications emanating from the Jorgensen and Anderson groups describing the design of potent, non-peptidic, competitive SARS-CoV-2 M(pro) inhibitors, and we saw an opportunity to make several design modifications to improve the overall pharmacokinetic profile of these compounds without losing potency. To this end, we created a focused virtual library using reaction-based enumeration tools in the Schrödinger suite. These compounds were docked into the M(pro) active site and subsequently prioritized for synthesis based upon relative binding affinity values calculated by FEP+. Fourteen compounds were selected, synthesized, and evaluated both biochemically and in cell culture. Several of the synthesized compounds proved to be potent, competitive M(pro) inhibitors with improved metabolic stability profiles.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine is used to eliminate Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites, but its optimal dosing regimen remains unclear. We undertook a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of different primaquine dosing regimens to prevent P vivax recurrence. METHODS: For this systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and Cochrane Central for prospective clinical studies of uncomplicated P vivax from endemic countries published between Jan 1, 2000, and June 8, 2023. We included studies if they had active follow-up of at least 28 days, and if they included a treatment group with daily primaquine given over multiple days, where primaquine was commenced within 7 days of schizontocidal treatment and was given alone or coadministered with chloroquine or one of four artemisinin-based combination therapies (ie, artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-mefloquine, artesunate-amodiaquine, or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). We excluded studies if they were on prevention, prophylaxis, or patients with severe malaria, or if data were extracted retrospectively from medical records outside of a planned trial. For the meta-analysis, we contacted the investigators of eligible trials to request individual patient data and we then pooled data that were made available by Aug 23, 2021. We assessed the effects of total dose and duration of primaquine regimens on the rate of first P vivax recurrence between day 7 and day 180 by Cox's proportional hazards regression (efficacy analysis). The effect of primaquine daily dose on gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 was assessed by modified Poisson regression (tolerability analysis). The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42019154470. FINDINGS: Of 226 identified studies, 23 studies with patient-level data from 6879 patients from 16 countries were included in the efficacy analysis. At day 180, the risk of recurrence was 51·0% (95% CI 48·2-53·9) in 1470 patients treated without primaquine, 19·3% (16·9-21·9) in 2569 patients treated with a low total dose of primaquine (approximately 3·5 mg/kg), and 8·1% (7·0-9·4) in 2811 patients treated with a high total dose of primaquine (approximately 7 mg/kg), regardless of primaquine treatment duration. Compared with treatment without primaquine, the rate of P vivax recurrence was lower after treatment with low-dose primaquine (adjusted hazard ratio 0·21, 95% CI 0·17-0·27; p<0·0001) and high-dose primaquine (0·10, 0·08-0·12; p<0·0001). High-dose primaquine had greater efficacy than low-dose primaquine in regions with high and low relapse periodicity (ie, the time from initial infection to vivax relapse). 16 studies with patient-level data from 5609 patients from ten countries were included in the tolerability analysis. Gastrointestinal symptoms on days 5-7 were reported by 4·0% (95% CI 0·0-8·7) of 893 patients treated without primaquine, 6·2% (0·5-12·0) of 737 patients treated with a low daily dose of primaquine (approximately 0·25 mg/kg per day), 5·9% (1·8-10·1) of 1123 patients treated with an intermediate daily dose (approximately 0·5 mg/kg per day) and 10·9% (5·7-16·1) of 1178 patients treated with a high daily dose (approximately 1 mg/kg per day). 20 of 23 studies included in the efficacy analysis and 15 of 16 in the tolerability analysis had a low or unclear risk of bias. INTERPRETATION: Increasing the total dose of primaquine from 3·5 mg/kg to 7 mg/kg can reduce P vivax recurrences by more than 50% in most endemic regions, with a small associated increase in gastrointestinal symptoms. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and Medicines for Malaria Venture.

BACKGROUND: Imperfect adherence is a major barrier to effective primaquine radical cure of Plasmodium vivax. This study investigated the effect of reduced adherence on the risk of P. vivax recurrence. METHODS: Efficacy studies of patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria, including a treatment arm with daily primaquine, published between January 1999 and March 2020 were identified. Individual patient data from eligible studies were pooled using standardized methodology. Adherence to primaquine was inferred from i) the percentage of supervised doses and ii) the total mg/kg dose received compared to the target total mg/kg dose per protocol. The effect of adherence to primaquine on the incidence of P. vivax recurrence between days 7 and 90 was investigated by Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 82 eligible studies, 32 were available including 6917 patients from 18 countries. For adherence assessed by percentage of supervised primaquine, 2790 patients (40.3%) had poor adherence (≤ 50%) and 4127 (59.7%) had complete adherence. The risk of recurrence by day 90 was 14.0% [95% confidence interval: 12.1-16.1] in patients with poor adherence compared to 5.8% [5.0-6.7] following full adherence; p = 0.014. After controlling for age, sex, baseline parasitaemia, and total primaquine dose per protocol, the rate of the first recurrence was higher following poor adherence compared to patients with full adherence (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) = 2.3 [1.8-2.9]). When adherence was quantified by total mg/kg dose received among 3706 patients, 347 (9.4%) had poor adherence, 88 (2.4%) had moderate adherence, and 3271 (88.2%) had complete adherence to treatment. The risks of recurrence by day 90 were 8.2% [4.3-15.2] in patients with poor adherence and 4.9% [4.1-5.8] in patients with full adherence; p < 0.001. CONCLUSION: Reduced adherence, including less supervision, increases the risk of vivax recurrence.

Listeria monocytogenes can cause severe foodborne illness, including miscarriage during pregnancy or death in newborn infants. When outbreaks of L. monocytogenes illness occur, it may be possible to determine the food source of the outbreak. However, most reported L. monocytogenes illnesses do not occur as part of a recognized outbreak and most of the time the food source of sporadic L. monocytogenes illness in people cannot be determined. In the United States, L. monocytogenes isolates from patients, foods, and environments are routinely sequenced and analyzed by whole genome multilocus sequence typing (wgMLST) for outbreak detection by PulseNet, the national molecular surveillance system for foodborne illnesses. We investigated whether machine learning approaches applied to wgMLST allele call data could assist in attribution analysis of food source of L. monocytogenes isolates. We compiled isolates with a known source from five food categories (dairy, fruit, meat, seafood, and vegetable) using the metadata of L. monocytogenes isolates in PulseNet, deduplicated closely genetically related isolates, and developed random forest models to predict the food sources of isolates. Prediction accuracy of the final model varied across the food categories; it was highest for meat (65%), followed by fruit (45%), vegetable (45%), dairy (44%), and seafood (37%); overall accuracy was 49%, compared with the naive prediction accuracy of 28%. Our results show that random forest can be used to capture genetically complex features of high-resolution wgMLST for attribution of isolates to their sources.

Objective: This study explores how Field Epidemiology Training Programs (FETP) whose National Public Health Institutes (NPHI) are supported by U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have contributed to strengthening essential public health functions. Methods: We conducted 96 semi-structured interviews with public health experts including NPHI staff, non-NPHI government staff, and staff from non-governmental and international organizations in Cambodia, Colombia, Liberia, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Zambia. We managed data using MAXQDA and employed direct content analysis to derive themes. Results: Three overarching themes emerged in relation to FETPs' role within the NPHIs' public health functions. These themes included contribution to improving country surveillance systems, role in providing leadership in outbreak responses, and strengthening countries' and the NPHIs' surveillance workforce capacity. Participants also shared challenges around FETPs' implementation and suggestions for improvement. Conclusion: The results demonstrate the value of FETPs in strengthening public health systems through building workforce capacity and improving surveillance systems. By identifying the successes of FETPs in contributing to essential public health functions, our findings might inform current and future FETP implementation and its integration into NPHIs.

BACKGROUND: Campylobacter is the most common cause of bacterial diarrhea in the United States; resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones limits treatment options. We examined the epidemiology of US Campylobacter infections and changes in resistance over time. METHODS: The Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network receives information on laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter cases from 10 US sites, and the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System receives a subset of isolates from these cases for antimicrobial susceptibility testing. We estimated trends in incidence of Campylobacter infection, adjusting for sex, age, and surveillance changes attributable to culture-independent diagnostic tests. We compared percentages of isolates resistant to erythromycin or ciprofloxacin during 2005-2016 with 2017-2018 and used multivariable logistic regression to examine the association of international travel with resistance. RESULTS: Adjusted Campylobacter incidence remained stable or decreased for all groups analyzed since 2012. Among 2449 linked records in 2017-2018, the median patient age was 40.2 years (interquartile range, 21.6-57.8 years), 54.8% of patients were male, 17.2% were hospitalized, and 0.2% died. The percentage of resistant infections increased from 24.5% in 2005-2016 to 29.7% in 2017-2018 for ciprofloxacin (P < .001) and from 2.6% to 3.3% for erythromycin (P = .04). Persons with recent international travel had higher odds than nontravelers of having isolates resistant to ciprofloxacin (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] varied from 1.7 to 10.6 by race/ethnicity) and erythromycin (aOR = 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-2.1). CONCLUSIONS: Campylobacter incidence has remained stable or decreased, whereas resistance to antimicrobials recommended for treatment has increased. Recent international travel increased the risk of resistance.

Coinfection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other viruses is inevitable as the COVID-19 pandemic continues. This study aimed to evaluate cell lines commonly used in virus diagnosis and isolation for their susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2. While multiple kidney cell lines from monkeys were susceptible and permissive to SARS-CoV-2, many cell types derived from human, dog, mink, cat, mouse, or chicken were not. Analysis of MDCK cells, which are most commonly used for surveillance and study of influenza viruses, demonstrated that they were insusceptible to SARS-CoV-2 and that the cellular barrier to productive infection was due to low expression level of the angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor and lower receptor affinity to SARS-CoV-2 spike, which could be overcome by over-expression of canine ACE2 in trans. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 cell tropism did not appear to be affected by a D614G mutation in the spike protein.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.

Background The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in severe shortages of personal protective equipment (PPE) necessary to protect front-line healthcare personnel. These shortages underscore the urgent need for simple, efficient, and inexpensive methods to decontaminate SARS-CoV-2-exposed PPE enabling safe reuse of masks and respirators. Efficient decontamination must be available not only in low-resourced settings, but also in well-resourced settings affected by PPE shortages. Methylene blue (MB) photochemical treatment, hitherto with many clinical applications including those used to inactivate virus in plasma, presents a novel approach for widely applicable PPE decontamination. Dry heat (DH) treatment is another potential low-cost decontamination method.Methods MB and light (MBL) and DH treatments were used to inactivate coronavirus on respirator and mask material. We tested three N95 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs), two medical masks (MMs), and one cloth community mask (CM). FFR/MM/CM materials were inoculated with SARS-CoV-2 (a Betacoronavirus), murine hepatitis virus (MHV) (a Betacoronavirus), or porcine respiratory coronavirus (PRCV) (an Alphacoronavirus), and treated with 10 µM MB followed by 50,000 lux of broad-spectrum light or 12,500 lux of red light for 30 minutes, or with 75°C DH for 60 minutes. In parallel, we tested respirator and mask integrity using several standard methods and compared to the FDA-authorized vaporized hydrogen peroxide plus ozone (VHP+O3) decontamination method. Intact FFRs/MMs/CM were subjected to five cycles of decontamination (5CD) to assess integrity using International Standardization Organization (ISO), American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) International, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), and Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) test methods.Findings Overall, MBL robustly and consistently inactivated all three coronaviruses with at least a 4-log reduction. DH yielded similar results, with the exception of MHV, which was only reduced by 2-log after treatment. FFR/MM integrity was maintained for 5 cycles of MBL or DH treatment, whereas one FFR failed after 5 cycles of VHP+O3. Baseline performance for the CM was variable, but reduction of integrity was minimal.Interpretation Methylene blue with light and DH treatment decontaminated masks and respirators by inactivating three tested coronaviruses without compromising integrity through 5CD. MBL decontamination of masks is effective, low-cost and does not require specialized equipment, making it applicable in all-resource settings. These attractive features support the utilization and continued development of this novel PPE decontamination method.Competing Interest StatementAuthors Thomas S. Lendvay, James Chen are Co-Founders and equity owners of Singletto, Inc. (Seattle, WA, USA) Authors Yi Cui and Steven Chu are Co-Founders and equity owners of 4C Air, Inc. (Sunnyvale, CA)Funding StatementThis study was funded by Open Philanthropy; Amazon Inc./University of Washington Catalyst Award; University of Liege (Belgium) and the Walloon Region, Belgium; Li Ka Shing Institute; Alberta Health Services; and an Anonymous donor to the University of Washington, Department of Urology.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:Stanford University and Alberta Health Services/University of Calgary were exempt from IRB as the human fit testing was considered Quality Improvement. ERB for clinical specimen use: A clinical saliva specimen with a SARS-CoV-2 was provided by Dr. John Conly from Calgary, Alberta with Calgary ERB approval (ID# Pro00099761).All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective inte ventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData will be freely shared post publication on reasonable request by contacting the corresponding author of the study.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the emergence of many new variant lineages that have exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of those variants were designated as variants of concern/interest (VOC/VOI) by national or international authorities based on many factors including their potential impact on vaccines. To ascertain and rank the risk of VOCs and VOIs, we analyzed their ability to escape from vaccine-induced antibodies. The variants showed differential reductions in neutralization and replication titers by post-vaccination sera. Although the Omicron variant showed the most escape from neutralization, sera collected after a third dose of vaccine (booster sera) retained moderate neutralizing activity against that variant. Therefore, vaccination remains the most effective strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.

The novel coronavirus pandemic incited unprecedented demand for assays that detect viral nucleic acids, viral proteins, and corresponding antibodies. The 320 molecular diagnostics in receipt of FDA emergency use authorization mainly focus on viral detection; however, no currently approved test can be used to infer infectiousness, i.e., the presence of replicable virus. As the number of tests conducted increased, persistent SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity by RT-PCR in some individuals led to concerns over quarantine guidelines. To this end, we attempted to design an assay that reduces the frequency of positive test results from individuals who do not shed culturable virus. We describe multiplex quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) assays that detect genomic RNA (gRNA) and subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) species of SARS-CoV-2, including spike (S), nucleocapsid (N), membrane (M), envelope (E), and ORF8. The absolute copy number of each RNA target was determined in longitudinal specimens from a household transmission study. Calculated viral RNA levels over the 14-day follow up period were compared with antigen testing and self-reported symptoms to characterize the clinical and molecular dynamics of infection and infer predictive values of these qRT-PCR assays relative to culture isolation. When detection of sgS RNA was added to the CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel, we found a qRT-PCR positive result was 98% predictive of a positive culture (negative predictive value was 94%). Our findings suggest sgRNA presence correlates with active infection, may help identify individuals shedding culturable virus, and that similar multiplex assays can be adapted to current and future variants. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

The early Omicron lineage variants evolved and gave rise to diverging lineages that fueled the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022. Bivalent mRNA vaccines, designed to broaden protection against circulating and future variants, were authorized by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in August 2022 and recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in September 2022. The impact of bivalent vaccination on eliciting neutralizing antibodies against homologous BA.4/BA.5 viruses as well as emerging heterologous viruses needs to be analyzed. In this study, we analyze the neutralizing activity of sera collected after a third dose of vaccination (2-6 weeks post monovalent booster) or a fourth dose of vaccination (2-7 weeks post bivalent booster) against 10 predominant/recent Omicron lineage viruses including BA.1, BA.2, BA.5, BA.2.75, BA.2.75.2, BN.1, BQ.1, BQ.1.1, XBB, and XBB.1. The bivalent booster vaccination enhanced neutralizing antibody titers against all Omicron lineage viruses tested, including a 10-fold increase in neutralization of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 viruses that predominated in the U.S. during the last two months of 2022. Overall, the data indicate the bivalent vaccine booster strengthens protection against Omicron lineage variants that evolved from BA.5 and BA.2 progenitors. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) causes acute diarrheal illness. To determine risk factors for non-O157 STEC infection, we enrolled 939 patients and 2,464 healthy controls in a case-control study conducted in 10 US sites. The highest population-attributable fractions for domestically acquired infections were for eating lettuce (39%), tomatoes (21%), or at a fast-food restaurant (23%). Exposures with 10%-19% population attributable fractions included eating at a table service restaurant, eating watermelon, eating chicken, pork, beef, or iceberg lettuce prepared in a restaurant, eating exotic fruit, taking acid-reducing medication, and living or working on or visiting a farm. Significant exposures with high individual-level risk (odds ratio >10) among those >1 year of age who did not travel internationally were all from farm animal environments. To markedly decrease the number of STEC-related illnesses, prevention measures should focus on decreasing contamination of produce and improving the safety of foods prepared in restaurants.

During the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in humans a D614G substitution in the spike (S) protein emerged and became the predominant circulating variant (S-614G) of the COVID-19 pandemic (1) . However, whether the increasing prevalence of the S-614G variant represents a fitness advantage that improves replication and/or transmission in humans or is merely due to founder effects remains elusive. Here, we generated isogenic SARS-CoV-2 variants and demonstrate that the S-614G variant has (i) enhanced binding to human ACE2, (ii) increased replication in primary human bronchial and nasal airway epithelial cultures as well as in a novel human ACE2 knock-in mouse model, and (iii) markedly increased replication and transmissibility in hamster and ferret models of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Collectively, our data show that while the S-614G substitution results in subtle increases in binding and replication in vitro , it provides a real competitive advantage in vivo , particularly during the transmission bottle neck, providing an explanation for the global predominance of S-614G variant among the SARS-CoV-2 viruses currently circulating.

BACKGROUND: Field Epidemiology Training Program (FETP) has been adopted as an epidemiology and response capacity building strategy worldwide. FETP-Frontline was introduced in Ethiopia in 2017 as a three-month in-service training. In this study, we evaluated implementing partners' perspectives with the aim of understanding program effectiveness and identifying challenges and recommendations for improvement. METHODS: A qualitative cross-sectional design was utilized to evaluate Ethiopia's FETP-Frontline. Using a descriptive phenomenological approach, qualitative data were collected from FETP-Frontline implementing partners, including regional, zonal, and district health offices across Ethiopia. We collected data through in-person key informant interviews, using semi-structured questionnaires. Thematic analysis was conducted, assisted with MAXQDA, while ensuring interrater reliability by using the consistent application of theme categorization. The major themes that emerged were program effectiveness, knowledge and skills differences between trained and untrained officers, program challenges, and recommended actions for improvement. Ethical approval was obtained from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute. Informed written consent was obtained from all participants, and confidentiality of the data was maintained throughout. RESULTS: A total of 41 interviews were conducted with key informants from FETP-Frontline implementing partners. The regional and zonal level experts and mentors had a Master of Public Health (MPH), whereas district health managers were Bachelor of Science (BSc) holders. Majority of the respondents reflected a positive perception towards FETP-Frontline. Regional and zonal officers as well as mentors mentioned that there were observable performance differences between trained and untrained district surveillance officers. They also identified various challenges including lack of resources for transportation, budget constraints for field projects, inadequate mentorship, high staff turnover, limited number of staff at the district level, lack of continued support from stakeholders, and the need for refresher training for FETP-Frontline graduates. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing partners reflected a positive perception towards FETP-Frontline in Ethiopia. In addition to scaling-up the program to reach all districts to achieve the International Health Regulation 2005 goals, the program also needs to consider addressing immediate challenges, primarily lack of resources and poor mentorship. Continued monitoring of the program, refresher training, and career path development could improve retention of the trained workforce.

BACKGROUND: We estimated symptomatic and asymptomatic influenza infection frequency in community-dwelling unvaccinated pregnant persons to inform risk communication. METHODS: We collected residue sera from multiple antenatal-care blood draws during October 2016-April 2017. We determined influenza infection as seroconversion with ≥ 4-fold rise in antibody titers between any two serum samples by improved hemagglutinin-inhibition assay including ether-treated B antigens. The serology data were linked to the results of nuclei acid testing (rRT-PCR) based on acute respiratory illness (ARI) surveillance. RESULTS: Among all participants, 43 %(602/1384) demonstrated serology and/or rRT-PCR evidenced infection, and 44 %(265/602) of all infections were asymptomatic. ARI-associated rRT-PCR testing identified only 10 %(61/602) of total infections. Only 1 %(5/420) of the B Victoria cases reported ARI and had a rRT-PCR positive result, compared with 33 %(54/165) of the H3N2 cases. Among influenza ARI cases with multiple serum samples, 19 %(11/58) had seroconversion to a different subtype prior to the illness. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of influenza B infection in unvaccinated pregnant persons is under-estimated substantially. Non-pharmaceutical intervention may have suboptimal effectiveness in preventing influenza B transmission due to the less clinical manifestation compared to influenza A. The findings support maternal influenza vaccination to protect pregnant persons and reduce consequent household transmission.

INTRODUCTION: A hepatitis B vaccination (HepB) series with an initial dose of hepatitis B immune globulin (HBIG) is the recommended prophylaxis for infants born to mothers with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection and for HBV-exposed persons without known protection. The HepB and HBIG are administered at different sites (limbs). Instances of HepB and HBIG administered at the same site are documented but the impact on immune responses to HepB remains unanswered. METHODS: Newborn and adult BALB/c mice received one dose of HepB at time zero alone or with HBIG in the same or different sites, followed by 2 additional doses of HepB at 3 and 10weeks (newborn mice) or 4 and 16weeks (adult mice). To study memory responses mice were given a 4th, booster, dose of HepB at 26weeks and B cells analyzed. RESULTS: Administration of HepB with HBIG resulted in reduced responses to HepB following the first 2 doses, regardless of site, compared to mice that received HepB only. Lower levels of antibody to HBV surface antigen (anti-HBs) were observed at the end of the 3-dose series (p<0.0001) in all groups of newborn mice that received HepB and HBIG. In adult mice, this difference was only seen when HepB and HBIG were delivered at the same site. However, following a HepB booster at 26weeks, HBsAg-specific B-cell expansion and memory phenotype were not impacted by initial HBIG administration CONCLUSION: Administration of HBIG with HepB can delay and reduce responses to HepB in mice. Our findings suggest that the initial circulating levels of HBIG could prevent infection despite an impaired response to vaccine and support the current recommendation of assessing seroprotection after series completion for infants born to HBV carrier mothers, including in cases where vaccine and HBIG are administered incorrectly at the same site.

BACKGROUND: Primaquine is essential for the radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria, but it poses a potential danger of severe hemolysis in G6PD-deficient (G6PDd) patients. This study aimed to determine whether primaquine is safe in a population with high G6PD prevalence but lacking G6PD diagnosis capacity. METHODS: In Myanmar, 152 vivax patients were gender- and age-matched at 1:3 for G6PDd versus G6PD-normal (G6PDn). Their risk of acute hemolysis was followed for 28 days after treatment with the standard chloroquine and 14-day primaquine (0.25 mg/kg/day) regimen. RESULTS: Patients anemic and non-anemic at enrollment showed a rising and declining trend in the mean hemoglobin level, respectively. In males, the G6PDd group showed substantially larger magnitudes of hemoglobin reduction and lower hemoglobin nadir levels than the G6PDn group, but this trend was not evident in females. Almost 1/3 of the patients experienced clinically concerning declines in hemoglobin, with five requiring blood transfusion. CONCLUSIONS: The standard 14-day primaquine regimen carries a significant risk of acute hemolytic anemia (AHA) in vivax patients without G6PD testing in a population with a high prevalence of G6PD deficiency and anemia. G6PD testing would avoid most of the clinically significant Hb reductions and AHA in male patients.

The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in the emergence of new variant lineages that have exacerbated the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of those variants were designated as variants of concern/interest (VOC/VOI) by national or international authorities based on many factors including their potential impact on vaccine-mediated protection from disease. To ascertain and rank the risk of VOCs and VOIs, we analyze the ability of 14 variants (614G, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta, Iota, Kappa, Lambda, Mu, and Omicron) to escape from mRNA vaccine-induced antibodies. The variants show differential reductions in neutralization and replication by post-vaccination sera. Although the Omicron variant (BA.1, BA.1.1, and BA.2) shows the most escape from neutralization, sera collected after a third dose of vaccine (booster sera) retain moderate neutralizing activity against that variant. Therefore, vaccination remains an effective strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Case-control studies are commonly used to explore factors associated with enteric bacterial diseases. Control of confounding is challenging due to the large number of exposures of interest and the low frequencies of many of them. METHODS: We evaluated nearest-neighbors matching in a case-control study (originally 1:1 matched, published in 2004) of sporadic Campylobacter infections that included information on 433 exposures in 2,632 subjects during 1998-1999. We performed multiple imputation of missing data (m=100) and calculated Gower distances between cases and controls using all possible confounders for each exposure in each dataset. We matched each case with ≤20 controls within a data-determined distance. We calculated odds ratios and population attributable fractions (PAFs). RESULTS: Examination of pairwise correlation between exposures found very strong associations for 1,046 pairs of exposures. More than 100 exposures were associated with campylobacteriosis, including nearly all risk factors identified using the previously published approach that included only 16 exposures and some less studied, rare exposures such as consumption of chicken liver and raw clams. Consumption of chicken and non-poultry meat had the highest PAFs (62% and 59%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Nearest-neighbors matching appears to provide an improved ability to examine rare exposures and better control for numerous highly associated confounders.

The novel coronavirus pandemic incited unprecedented demand for assays that detect viral nucleic acids, viral proteins, and corresponding antibodies. The 320 molecular diagnostics in receipt of FDA emergency use authorization mainly focus on viral detection; however, no currently approved test can be used to infer infectiousness, i.e., the presence of replicable virus. As the number of tests conducted increased, persistent SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity by RT-PCR in some individuals led to concerns over quarantine guidelines. To this end, we attempted to design an assay that reduces the frequency of positive test results from individuals who do not shed culturable virus. We describe multiplex quantitative RT-PCR (qRT-PCR) assays that detect genomic RNA (gRNA) and subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) species of SARS-CoV-2, including spike (S), nucleocapsid (N), membrane (M), envelope (E), and ORF8. Viral RNA abundances calculated from these assays were compared with antigen presence, self-reported symptoms, and culture outcome (virus isolation) using samples from a 14-day longitudinal household transmission study. By characterizing the clinical and molecular dynamics of infection, we show sgRNA detection has higher predictive value for culture outcome compared to detection of gRNA alone. Our findings suggest sgRNA presence correlates with active infection and may help identify individuals shedding culturable virus.

SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

BACKGROUND: On 1 February 2016, the World Health Organization declared Zika transmission a public health emergency of international concern. Monitoring and responding to community awareness, concern, and possible knowledge gaps are critical during public health emergencies. Here, we describe the review and analysis of micro-blogs posted on Sina-Weibo, China's largest social media platform, to develop and disseminate a Zika virus education campaign. METHODS: We used CYYUN Voice Express' Weibo Spider tool and the search terms of "Zhaika" OR "Zika" OR "Zikv" to capture microblogs about Zika virus retrospectively from February 1 to December 31, 2016 and prospectively from June 1 to November 15, 2017. We described microblogs meeting our inclusion criteria by month and Zika virus outbreaks in Asia and by source (e.g., government agency, individual, or other). We identified common misleading or inaccurate content authored by individual micro-bloggers (i.e., not supported by available scientific evidence) through a qualitative review. We used this information to develop and disseminate health awareness material about the Zika virus through China CDC's 12320 Health Hotline Weibo account. An online survey was conducted to obtain feedback on the material. RESULTS: We captured 15,888 microblogs meeting our inclusion criteria. Zika-related microblogs peaked in September 2016, corresponding to news reports about the Zika outbreak in Singapore (August to November 2016). Most microblogs (12,994 [82%]) were authored by individual users, followed by media agencies (842 [5%]), businesses (829 [5%]), international organizations (370 [2%]), and Chinese government agencies (235 [1%]). Relevant microblogs primarily focused on clinical symptoms and health risks, modes of transmission, and actions taken by individuals to prevent infection and seek health care. Incorrect and/or mis-leading information from individual users concentrated on modes of transmission and possible treatments. The microblog "#Zika is that far and this close" health campaign was posted on Sina-Weibo and Baidu (Internet search engine in China) on September 18, 2016. Younger respondents (p-value = 0.01), and those with at least a college education (p-value = 0.03), were more likely than other respondents to consider the online campaign reliable and trustworthy. CONCLUSION: Routine review of Sina-Weibo and other social media platforms could enhance the ability of public health staff to effectively respond to community concerns and awareness during public health emergencies. Advancements of social media monitoring tools and staff training could help to promote health awareness during emergencies by directly addressing public perceptions and concerns. Various approaches may be needed to reach different at-risk populations, particularly older and less educated populations who may prefer more traditional modes of communication.

We sought to determine which Salmonella serotypes cause illness related to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States and to foods disproportionately eaten then (e.g., turkey). Using routine surveillance for 1998-2018 and a case-crossover design, we found serotype Reading to be most strongly associated with Thanksgiving.