Last data update: Oct 07, 2024. (Total: 47845 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Chen Y[original query] |
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Decline in vaccination coverage by age 24 months and vaccination inequities among children born in 2020 and 2021 - National Immunization Survey-Child, United States, 2021-2023
Hill HA , Yankey D , Elam-Evans LD , Mu Y , Chen M , Peacock G , Singleton JA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (38) 844-853 Data from the National Immunization Survey-Child (NIS-Child) were analyzed to estimate coverage with childhood vaccines recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices among U.S. children by age 24 months. Coverage with nearly all vaccines was lower among children born in 2020 and 2021 than it was among those born in 2018 and 2019, with declines ranging from 1.3 to 7.8 percentage points. Analyses of NIS-Child data for earlier birth cohorts have not revealed such widespread declines in routine childhood vaccination coverage. Coverage among children born during 2020-2021 varied by race and ethnicity, health insurance status, poverty status, urbanicity, and jurisdiction. Compared with non-Hispanic White children, coverage with four of the 17 vaccine measures was lower among non-Hispanic Black or African American children as well as Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) and non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native children. Coverage was also generally lower among those covered by Medicaid or other nonprivate insurance, uninsured children, children living below the federal poverty level, and children living in rural areas. Coverage varied widely by jurisdiction, especially coverage with ≥2 doses of influenza vaccine. Children born during 2020-2021 were born during or after the period of major disruption of primary care from the COVID-19 pandemic. Providers should review children's histories and recommend needed vaccinations during every clinical encounter. Addressing financial barriers, access issues, vaccine hesitancy, and vaccine-related misinformation can also help to increase coverage, reduce disparities, and protect all children from vaccine-preventable diseases. Strategies that have been found effective include implementation of standing orders and reminder and recall systems, strong physician recommendations to vaccinate, and use of immunization information systems to identify areas of lower coverage that could benefit from targeted interventions to increase immunization rates. |
Beyond bacteria: the growing threat of antifungal resistance
van Rhijn N , Arikan-Akdagli S , Beardsley J , Bongomin F , Chakrabarti A , Chen SC , Chiller T , Lopes Colombo A , Govender NP , Alastruey-Izquierdo A , Kidd SE , Lackner M , Li R , Hagen F . Lancet 2024 404 (10457) 1017-1018 |
Use of haemophilus influenzae type B-containing vaccines among American Indian and Alaska Native infants: Updated recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2024
Collins JP , Loehr J , Chen WH , Clark M , Pinell-McNamara V , McNamara LA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (36) 799-802 Invasive Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) disease is a serious bacterial infection that disproportionally affects American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) populations. Hib vaccination with a monovalent Hib conjugate vaccine consisting of Hib capsular polysaccharide (polyribosylribitol phosphate [PRP]) conjugated to outer membrane protein complex of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup B, PRP-OMP (PedvaxHIB, Merck and Co., Inc.) has historically been preferred for AI/AN infants, who are at increased risk for invasive Hib disease, because it provides substantial protection after the first dose. On June 26, 2024, CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that a hexavalent, combined diphtheria and tetanus toxoids and acellular pertussis (DTaP), inactivated poliovirus (IPV), Hib conjugate, and hepatitis B (HepB) vaccine, DTaP-IPV-Hib-HepB (Vaxelis, MSP Vaccine Company) should be included with monovalent PRP-OMP in the preferential recommendation for AI/AN infants because of the PRP-OMP Hib component. A primary Hib vaccination series consisting of either 1) monovalent PRP-OMP (2-dose series at ages 2 and 4 months) or 2) DTaP-IPV-Hib-HepB (3-dose series at ages 2, 4, and 6 months) is preferred for AI/AN infants. DTaP-IPV-Hib-HepB is only indicated for use in infants at ages 2, 4, and 6 months and should not be used for the booster doses of Hib, DTaP, or IPV vaccines. For the booster dose of Hib vaccine, no vaccine formulation is preferred for AI/AN children; any Hib vaccine (except DTaP-IPV-Hib-HepB) should be used. This report summarizes evidence considered for these recommendations and provides clinical guidance for the use of Hib-containing vaccines among AI/AN infants and children. |
Contact tracing for mpox clade II cases associated with air travel - United States, July 2021-August 2022
Delea KC , Chen TH , Lavilla K , Hercules Y , Gearhart S , Preston LE , Hughes CM , Minhaj FS , Waltenburg MA , Sunshine B , Rao AK , McCollum AM , Adams K , Ocaña M , Akinkugbe O , Brown C , Alvarado-Ramy F . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (35) 758-762 Monkeypox virus (MPXV) can spread among humans through direct contact with lesions, scabs, or saliva; via respiratory secretions; and indirectly from fomites; via percutaneous injuries; and by crossing the placenta to the fetus during pregnancy. Since 2022, most patients with mpox in the United States have experienced painful skin lesions, and some have had severe illness. During 2021-2022, CDC initiated aircraft contact investigations after receiving reports of travelers on commercial flights with probable or confirmed mpox during their infectious period. Data were collected 1) during 2021, when two isolated clade II mpox cases not linked to an outbreak were imported into the United States by international travelers and 2) for flights arriving in or traveling within the United States during April 30-August 2, 2022, after a global clade II mpox outbreak was detected in May 2022. A total of 113 persons (100 passengers and 13 crew members) traveled on 221 flights while they were infectious with mpox. CDC developed definitions for aircraft contacts based on proximity to mpox cases and flight duration, sent information about these contacts to U.S. health departments, and received outcome information for 1,046 (68%) of 1,538 contacts. No traveler was found to have acquired mpox via a U.S. flight exposure. For persons with mpox and their contacts who had departed from the United States, CDC forwarded contact information as well as details about the exposure event to destination countries to facilitate their own public health investigations. Findings from these aircraft contact investigations suggest that traveling on a flight with a person with mpox does not appear to constitute an exposure risk or warrant routine contact tracing activities. Nonetheless, CDC recommends that persons with mpox isolate and delay travel until they are no longer infectious. |
Building quality control for molecular assays in the global measles and rubella laboratory network
Bankamp B , Anderson R , Hao L , Lopareva E , Chen MH , Kim G , Beard RS , Mori Y , Otsuki N , Ryo A , Rota PA . Vaccines (Basel) 2024 12 (8) More than 100 laboratories in the World Health Organization Global Measles and Rubella Laboratory Network (GMRLN) perform nucleic acid-based methods for case confirmation of measles or rubella infections and/or strain surveillance (genotyping). The quality of laboratory data is critical to ensure that diagnostic results and country reports to regional verification committees are based on accurate data. A molecular External Quality Assurance (mEQA) program was initiated by the US-CDC in 2014 to evaluate the performance of laboratories in the network. The inclusion of testing for measles and rubella viruses, with a focus on detection and genotyping, plus the diversity of assays and platforms employed required a flexible and comprehensive proficiency testing program. A stepwise introduction of new evaluation criteria gradually increased the stringency of the proficiency testing program, while giving laboratories time to implement the required changes. The mEQA program plays an important role in many processes in the GMRLN, including informing plans for the training of laboratory staff, access to reagents, and the submission of sequence data to global databases. The EQA program for Local Public Health Institutes in Japan is described as an example for national mEQA programs. As more laboratories initiate molecular testing, the mEQA will need to continue to expand and to adapt to the changing landscape for molecular testing. |
Association between state minimum wage and firearm suicides in the USA, 2000-2020
Merrill-Francis M , Dunphy C , Lennon N , Chen MS , Grady C , Miller GF , Girod C , McCourt AD . Inj Prev 2024 BACKGROUND: Firearm suicides constitute a major public health issue. Policies that enhance economic security and decrease community-level poverty may be effective strategies for reducing risk of firearm suicide. This study examined the association between state minimum wage and firearm suicide. METHODS: State minimum wage, obtained from Temple's Law Atlas and augmented by legal research, was conceptualised using the modified Kaitz Index and a continuous variable centred on the federal minimum wage. State-level suicide counts were obtained from 2000 to 2020 multiple-cause-of-death mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System. Log-linear regressions were conducted to model the associations between state minimum wage and firearm suicides, stratifying by demographic groups. Analyses were conducted in 2023. RESULTS: A one percentage point increase in a state's modified Kaitz Index was associated with a 0.3% (95% CI -0.6% to -0.0%) decrease in firearm suicides within a state. A US$1.00 increase in a state's minimum wage above the federal minimum wage was associated with a 1.4% (95% CI -2.1% to -0.6%) decrease in firearm suicides. When stratified by quartile of firearm ownership, the modified Kaitz Index was associated with decreases in firearm suicides most consistently in the two lowest quartiles. CONCLUSION: Increasing a state's minimum wage may be a policy option to consider as part of a comprehensive approach to reducing firearm suicides. These findings expand the evidence base for how economic policies may be leveraged to reduce firearm suicides. |
Early biological markers of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection
Lu S , Peluso MJ , Glidden DV , Davidson MC , Lugtu K , Pineda-Ramirez J , Tassetto M , Garcia-Knight M , Zhang A , Goldberg SA , Chen JY , Fortes-Cobby M , Park S , Martinez A , So M , Donovan A , Viswanathan B , Hoh R , Donohue K , McIlwain DR , Gaudiliere B , Anglin K , Yee BC , Chenna A , Winslow JW , Petropoulos CJ , Deeks SG , Briggs-Hagen M , Andino R , Midgley CM , Martin JN , Saydah S , Kelly JD . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 7466 To understand the roles of acute-phase viral dynamics and host immune responses in post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC), we enrolled 136 participants within 5 days of their first positive SARS-CoV-2 real-time PCR test. Participants self-collected up to 21 nasal specimens within the first 28 days post-symptom onset; interviewer-administered questionnaires and blood samples were collected at enrollment, days 9, 14, 21, 28, and month 4 and 8 post-symptom onset. Defining PASC as the presence of any COVID-associated symptom at their 4-month visit, we compared viral markers (quantity and duration of nasal viral RNA load, infectious viral load, and plasma N-antigen level) and host immune markers (IL-6, IL-10, TNF-α, IFN-α, IFN-γ, MCP, IP-10, and Spike IgG) over the acute period. Compared to those who fully recovered, those reporting PASC demonstrated significantly higher maximum levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and N-antigen, burden of RNA and infectious viral shedding, and lower Spike-specific IgG levels within 9 days post-illness onset. No significant differences were identified among a panel of host immune markers. Our results suggest early viral dynamics and the associated host immune responses play a role in the pathogenesis of PASC, highlighting the importance of understanding early biological markers in the natural history of PASC. |
Prevalence, patterns, and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and culturable virus in tears of case-ascertained household cohort
So M , Goldberg SA , Lu S , Garcia-Knight M , Davidson MC , Tassetto M , Murray VW , Anglin K , Pineda-Ramirez J , Chen JY , Rugart PR , Richardson ET , Briggs-Hagen M , Midgley CM , Andino R , Seitzman GD , Gonzales J , Peluso MJ , Martin JN , Kelly JD . Am J Ophthalmol 2024 265 48-53 PURPOSE: To investigate the prevalence, patterns, and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and culturable virus in tears of a case-ascertained household cohort. DESIGN: Prospective, longitudinal case-ascertained household cohort identified through convenience sampling. METHODS: This analysis was restricted to individuals who were non-hospitalized, symptomatic, and tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 by nasal RT-PCR. Tears and anterior nasal biospecimens were serially collected throughout the acute period. Tears specimens were collected by the study staff using Schirmer test strips, and nasal specimens were self-collected. For both, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was quantified using qRT-PCR, and culturable virus was detected using presence of cytopathic effect (CPE) in tissue culture; positive CPE was confirmed by a qRT-PCR step. A series of cross-sectional unadjusted analyses were performed investigating the relationship between different sociodemographic determinants and biological factors associated with tears RNA positivity. RESULTS: Among the 83 SARS-CoV-2 infected participants, 10 (12%) had at least one RNA-positive tears specimen. Amongst these 10, 5 (50%) had concurrent presence of culturable virus, at a median of 7 days postsymptom onset (IQR: 4-7 days) (absolute range: 4-8 days). CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal cohort, we found evidence of culturable virus in the tears of a small proportion of nonhospitalized SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals. Current public health infection precautions do not account for transmission via tears, so these findings may improve our understanding of potential sources of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and contribute to developing future guidelines. |
Antivirals for post-exposure prophylaxis of influenza: a systematic review and network meta-analysis
Zhao Y , Gao Y , Guyatt G , Uyeki TM , Liu P , Liu M , Shen Y , Chen X , Luo S , Li X , Huang R , Hao Q . Lancet 2024 404 (10454) 764-772 BACKGROUND: Antiviral post-exposure prophylaxis with neuraminidase inhibitors can reduce the incidence of influenza and the risk of symptomatic influenza, but the efficacy of the other classes of antiviral remains unclear. To support an update of WHO influenza guidelines, this systematic review and network meta-analysis evaluated antiviral drugs for post-exposure prophylaxis of influenza. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Global Health, Epistemonikos, and ClinicalTrials.gov for randomised controlled trials published up to Sept 20, 2023 that evaluated the efficacy and safety of antivirals compared with another antiviral or placebo or standard care for prevention of influenza. Pairs of reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed the risk of bias. We performed network meta-analyses with frequentist random effects model and assessed the certainty of evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach. The outcomes of interest were symptomatic or asymptomatic infection, admission to hospital, all-cause mortality, adverse events related to antivirals, and serious adverse events. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023466450. FINDINGS: Of 11 845 records identified by our search, 33 trials of six antivirals (zanamivir, oseltamivir, laninamivir, baloxavir, amantadine, and rimantadine) that enrolled 19 096 individuals (mean age 6·75-81·15 years) were included in this systematic review and network meta-analysis. Most of the studies were rated as having a low risk of bias. Zanamivir, oseltamivir, laninamivir, and baloxavir probably achieve important reductions in symptomatic influenza in individuals at high risk of severe disease (zanamivir: risk ratio 0·35, 95% CI 0·25-0·50; oseltamivir: 0·40, 0·26-0·62; laninamivir: 0·43, 0·30-0·63; baloxavir: 0·43, 0·23-0·79; moderate certainty) when given promptly (eg, within 48 h) after exposure to seasonal influenza. These antivirals probably do not achieve important reductions in symptomatic influenza in individuals at low risk of severe disease when given promptly after exposure to seasonal influenza (moderate certainty). Zanamivir, oseltamivir, laninamivir, and baloxavir might achieve important reductions in symptomatic zoonotic influenza in individuals exposed to novel influenza A viruses associated with severe disease in infected humans when given promptly after exposure (low certainty). Oseltamivir, laninamivir, baloxavir, and amantadine probably decrease the risk of all influenza (symptomatic and asymptomatic infection; moderate certainty). Zanamivir, oseltamivir, laninamivir, and baloxavir probably have little or no effect on prevention of asymptomatic influenza virus infection or all-cause mortality (high or moderate certainty). Oseltamivir probably has little or no effect on admission to hospital (moderate certainty). All six antivirals do not significantly increase the incidence of drug-related adverse events or serious adverse events, although the certainty of evidence varies. INTERPRETATION: Post-exposure prophylaxis with zanamivir, oseltamivir, laninamivir, or baloxavir probably decreases the risk of symptomatic seasonal influenza in individuals at high risk for severe disease after exposure to seasonal influenza viruses. Post-exposure prophylaxis with zanamivir, oseltamivir, laninamivir, or baloxavir might reduce the risk of symptomatic zoonotic influenza after exposure to novel influenza A viruses associated with severe disease in infected humans. FUNDING: World Health Organization. |
Antivirals for treatment of severe influenza: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials
Gao Y , Guyatt G , Uyeki TM , Liu M , Chen Y , Zhao Y , Shen Y , Xu J , Zheng Q , Li Z , Zhao W , Luo S , Chen X , Tian J , Hao Q . Lancet 2024 404 (10454) 753-763 BACKGROUND: The optimal antiviral drug for treatment of severe influenza remains unclear. To support updated WHO influenza clinical guidelines, this systematic review and network meta-analysis evaluated antivirals for treatment of patients with severe influenza. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Global Health, Epistemonikos, and ClinicalTrials.gov for randomised controlled trials published up to Sept 20, 2023, that enrolled hospitalised patients with suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza and compared direct-acting influenza antivirals against placebo, standard care, or another antiviral. Pairs of coauthors independently extracted data on study characteristics, patient characteristics, antiviral characteristics, and outcomes, with discrepancies resolved by discussion or by a third coauthor. Key outcomes of interest were time to alleviation of symptoms, duration of hospitalisation, admission to intensive care unit, progression to invasive mechanical ventilation, duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality, hospital discharge destination, emergence of antiviral resistance, adverse events, adverse events related to treatments, and serious adverse events. We conducted frequentist network meta-analyses to summarise the evidence and evaluated the certainty of evidence using the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) approach. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42023456650. FINDINGS: Of 11 878 records identified by our search, eight trials with 1424 participants (mean age 36-60 years for trials that reported mean or median age; 43-78% male patients) were included in this systematic review, of which six were included in the network meta-analysis. The effects of oseltamivir, peramivir, or zanamivir on mortality compared with placebo or standard care without placebo for seasonal and zoonotic influenza were of very low certainty. Compared with placebo or standard care, we found low certainty evidence that duration of hospitalisation for seasonal influenza was reduced with oseltamivir (mean difference -1·63 days, 95% CI -2·81 to -0·45) and peramivir (-1·73 days, -3·33 to -0·13). Compared with standard care, there was little or no difference in time to alleviation of symptoms with oseltamivir (0·34 days, -0·86 to 1·54; low certainty evidence) or peramivir (-0·05 days, -0·69 to 0·59; low certainty evidence). There were no differences in adverse events or serious adverse events with oseltamivir, peramivir, and zanamivir (very low certainty evidence). Uncertainty remains about the effects of antivirals on other outcomes for patients with severe influenza. Due to the small number of eligible trials, we could not test for publication bias. INTERPRETATION: In hospitalised patients with severe influenza, oseltamivir and peramivir might reduce duration of hospitalisation compared with standard care or placebo, although the certainty of evidence is low. The effects of all antivirals on mortality and other important patient outcomes are very uncertain due to scarce data from randomised controlled trials. FUNDING: World Health Organization. |
National vaccination coverage among adolescents aged 13-17 years - National Immunization Survey-Teen, United States, 2023
Pingali C , Yankey D , Chen M , Elam-Evans LD , Markowitz LE , DeSisto CL , Schillie SF , Hughes M , Valier MR , Stokley S , Singleton JA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (33) 708-714 Based on safety and efficacy data, vaccinations are the best defense to protect persons and communities from serious vaccine-preventable diseases. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends routine vaccination of adolescents aged 11-12 years with three vaccines including tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis vaccine; quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccine; and human papillomavirus vaccine. CDC analyzed data from the 2023 National Immunization Survey-Teen for 16,658 adolescents aged 13-17 years (born during January 2005-December 2010) to assess vaccination coverage in 2023, recent trends in coverage by birth year, and trends in coverage by eligibility for the Vaccines for Children (VFC) program and birth year. In 2023, coverage with all routine vaccines recommended for adolescents was similar to coverage in 2022. Vaccination coverage among VFC-eligible adolescents was generally stable during the COVID-19 pandemic, except for a decrease in the percentage of VFC-eligible adolescents who were up to date with HPV vaccination by age 13 years among those born in 2010 compared with those born in 2007. Whereas coverage differences were found between VFC-eligible and non-VFC-eligible adolescents before the COVID-19 pandemic, coverage was similar among the most recent birth years in the survey. Providers should make strong recommendations for all routine vaccines and review adolescent vaccination records to verify if adolescents are up to date with all recommended vaccines. |
Vital Signs: Trends and disparities in childhood vaccination coverage by vaccines for children program eligibility - National Immunization Survey-Child, United States, 2012-2022
Valier MR , Yankey D , Elam-Evans LD , Chen M , Hill HA , Mu Y , Pingali C , Gomez JA , Arthur BC , Surtees T , Graitcer SB , Dowling NF , Stokley S , Peacock G , Singleton JA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (33) 722-730 INTRODUCTION: The Vaccines for Children (VFC) program was established in 1994 to provide recommended vaccines at no cost to eligible children and help ensure that all U.S. children are protected from life-threatening vaccine-preventable diseases. METHODS: CDC analyzed data from the 2012-2022 National Immunization Survey-Child (NIS-Child) to assess trends in vaccination coverage with ≥1 dose of measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine (MMR), 2-3 doses of rotavirus vaccine, and a combined 7-vaccine series, by VFC program eligibility status, and to examine differences in coverage among VFC-eligible children by sociodemographic characteristics. VFC eligibility was defined as meeting at least one of the following criteria: 1) American Indian or Alaska Native; 2) insured by Medicaid, Indian Health Service (IHS), or uninsured; or 3) ever received at least one vaccination at an IHS-operated center, Tribal health center, or urban Indian health care facility. RESULTS: Overall, approximately 52.2% of U.S. children were VFC eligible. Among VFC-eligible children born during 2011-2020, coverage by age 24 months was stable for ≥1 MMR dose (88.0%-89.9%) and the combined 7-vaccine series (61.4%-65.3%). Rotavirus vaccination coverage by age 8 months was 64.8%-71.1%, increasing by an average of 0.7 percentage points annually. Among all children born in 2020, coverage was 3.8 (≥1 MMR dose), 11.5 (2-3 doses of rotavirus vaccine), and 13.8 (combined 7-vaccine series) percentage points lower among VFC-eligible than among non-VFC-eligible children. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH PRACTICE: Although the VFC program has played a vital role in increasing and maintaining high levels of childhood vaccination coverage for 30 years, gaps remain. Enhanced efforts must ensure that parents and guardians of VFC-eligible children are aware of, have confidence in, and are able to obtain all recommended vaccines for their children. |
Gains needed to achieve Healthy People 2030 breastfeeding targets
Noiman A , Kim C , Chen J , Elam-Evans LD , Hamner HC , Li R . Pediatrics 2024 |
Quantile regression for longitudinal data with values below the limit of detection and time-dependent covariates-application to modeling carbon nanotube and nanofiber exposures
Chen IC , Bertke SJ , Dahm MM . Ann Work Expo Health 2024 BACKGROUND: In studies of occupational health, longitudinal environmental exposure, and biomonitoring data are often subject to right skewing and left censoring, in which measurements fall below the limit of detection (LOD). To address right-skewed data, it is common practice to log-transform the data and model the geometric mean, assuming a log-normal distribution. However, if the transformed data do not follow a known distribution, modeling the mean of exposure may result in bias and reduce efficiency. In addition, when examining longitudinal data, it is possible that certain covariates may vary over time. OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive quantile regression models to resolve the issues of left censoring and time-dependent covariates and to quantitatively evaluate if previous and current covariates can predict current and/or future exposure levels. METHODS: To address these gaps, we suggested incorporating different substitution approaches into quantile regression and utilizing a method for selecting a working type of time dependency for covariates. RESULTS: In a simulation study, we demonstrated that, under different types of time-dependent covariates, the approach of multiple random value imputation outperformed the other approaches. We also applied our methods to a carbon nanotube and nanofiber exposure study. The dependent variables are the left-censored mass of elemental carbon at both the respirable and inhalable aerosol size fractions. In this study, we identified some potential time-dependent covariates with respect to worker-level determinants and job tasks. CONCLUSION: Time dependency for covariates is rarely accounted for when analyzing longitudinal environmental exposure and biomonitoring data with values less than the LOD through predictive modeling. Mistreating the time-dependency as time-independency will lead to an efficiency loss of regression parameter estimation. Therefore, we addressed time-varying covariates in longitudinal exposure and biomonitoring data with left-censored measurements and illustrated an entire conditional distribution through different quantiles. |
Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations
Mathis SM , Webber AE , León TM , Murray EL , Sun M , White LA , Brooks LC , Green A , Hu AJ , Rosenfeld R , Shemetov D , Tibshirani RJ , McDonald DJ , Kandula S , Pei S , Yaari R , Yamana TK , Shaman J , Agarwal P , Balusu S , Gururajan G , Kamarthi H , Prakash BA , Raman R , Zhao Z , Rodríguez A , Meiyappan A , Omar S , Baccam P , Gurung HL , Suchoski BT , Stage SA , Ajelli M , Kummer AG , Litvinova M , Ventura PC , Wadsworth S , Niemi J , Carcelen E , Hill AL , Loo SL , McKee CD , Sato K , Smith C , Truelove S , Jung SM , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , McAndrew T , Ye W , Bosse N , Hlavacek WS , Lin YT , Mallela A , Gibson GC , Chen Y , Lamm SM , Lee J , Posner RG , Perofsky AC , Viboud C , Clemente L , Lu F , Meyer AG , Santillana M , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Ben-Nun M , Riley P , Turtle J , Hulme-Lowe C , Jessa S , Nagraj VP , Turner SD , Williams D , Basu A , Drake JM , Fox SJ , Suez E , Cojocaru MG , Thommes EW , Cramer EY , Gerding A , Stark A , Ray EL , Reich NG , Shandross L , Wattanachit N , Wang Y , Zorn MW , Aawar MA , Srivastava A , Meyers LA , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis BL , Marathe M , Venkatramanan S , Butler P , Farabow A , Ramakrishnan N , Muralidhar N , Reed C , Biggerstaff M , Borchering RK . Nat Commun 2024 15 (1) 6289 Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change. |
Candida tropicalis-A systematic review to inform the World Health Organization of a fungal priority pathogens list
Keighley C , Kim HY , Kidd S , Chen SC , Alastruey A , Dao A , Bongomin F , Chiller T , Wahyuningsih R , Forastiero A , Al-Nuseirat A , Beyer P , Gigante V , Beardsley J , Sati H , Morrissey CO , Alffenaar JW . Med Mycol 2024 62 (6) In response to the growing global burden of fungal infections with uncertain impact, the World Health Organization (WHO) established an Expert Group to identify priority fungal pathogens and establish the WHO Fungal Priority Pathogens List for future research. This systematic review aimed to evaluate the features and global impact of invasive candidiasis caused by Candida tropicalis. PubMed and Web of Science were searched for studies reporting on criteria of mortality, morbidity (defined as hospitalization and disability), drug resistance, preventability, yearly incidence, diagnostics, treatability, and distribution/emergence from 2011 to 2021. Thirty studies, encompassing 436 patients from 25 countries were included in the analysis. All-cause mortality due to invasive C. tropicalis infections was 55%-60%. Resistance rates to fluconazole, itraconazole, voriconazole and posaconazole up to 40%-80% were observed but C. tropicalis isolates showed low resistance rates to the echinocandins (0%-1%), amphotericin B (0%), and flucytosine (0%-4%). Leukaemia (odds ratio (OR) = 4.77) and chronic lung disease (OR = 2.62) were identified as risk factors for invasive infections. Incidence rates highlight the geographic variability and provide valuable context for understanding the global burden of C. tropicalis infections. C. tropicalis candidiasis is associated with high mortality rates and high rates of resistance to triazoles. To address this emerging threat, concerted efforts are needed to develop novel antifungal agents and therapeutic approaches tailored to C. tropicalis infections. Global surveillance studies could better inform the annual incidence rates, distribution and trends and allow informed evaluation of the global impact of C. tropicalis infections. |
Gestational exposure to environmental chemicals and epigenetic alterations in the placenta and cord blood mononuclear cells
Puvvula J , Braun JM , DeFranco EA , Ho SM , Leung YK , Huang S , Zhang X , Vuong AM , Kim SS , Percy Z , Calafat AM , Botelho JC , Chen A . Epigenetics Commun 2024 4 (1) 4 BACKGROUND: Exposure to environmental chemicals such as phthalates, phenols, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during pregnancy can increase the risk of adverse newborn outcomes. We explored the associations between maternal exposure to select environmental chemicals and DNA methylation in cord blood mononuclear cells (CBMC) and placental tissue (maternal and fetal sides) to identify potential mechanisms underlying these associations. METHOD: This study included 75 pregnant individuals who planned to give birth at the University of Cincinnati Hospital between 2014 and 2017. Maternal urine samples during the delivery visit were collected and analyzed for 37 biomarkers of phenols (12), phthalates (13), phthalate replacements (4), and PAHs (8). Cord blood and placenta tissue (maternal and fetal sides) were also collected to measure the DNA methylation intensities using the Infinium HumanMethylation450K BeadChip. We used linear regression, adjusting for potential confounders, to assess CpG-specific methylation changes in CBMC (n = 54) and placenta [fetal (n = 67) and maternal (n = 68) sides] associated with gestational chemical exposures (29 of 37 biomarkers measured in this study). To account for multiple testing, we used a false discovery rate q-values < 0.05 and presented results by limiting results with a genomic inflation factor of 1±0.5. Additionally, gene set enrichment analysis was conducted using the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomics pathways. RESULTS: Among the 29 chemical biomarkers assessed for differential methylation, maternal concentrations of PAH metabolites (1-hydroxynaphthalene, 2-hydroxyfluorene, 4-hydroxyphenanthrene, 1-hydroxypyrene), monocarboxyisononyl phthalate, mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate, and bisphenol A were associated with altered methylation in placenta (maternal or fetal side). Among exposure biomarkers associated with epigenetic changes, 1-hydroxynaphthalene, and mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate were consistently associated with differential CpG methylation in the placenta. Gene enrichment analysis indicated that maternal 1-hydroxynaphthalene was associated with lipid metabolism and cellular processes of the placenta. Additionally, mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate was associated with organismal systems and genetic information processing of the placenta. CONCLUSION: Among the 29 chemical biomarkers assessed during delivery, 1-hydroxynaphthalene and mono-3-carboxypropyl phthalate were associated with DNA methylation in the placenta. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s43682-024-00027-7. |
Working hours, shift, and remote work by industry and occupation in U.S. full-time workers
Chen GX . Work Health Safety 2024 Background: This study examines working hours, shift work, and remote work patterns by occupation and industry among U.S. full-time workers, along with the association between working and sleeping hours. Methods: Utilizing data from 2011 to 2020 American Time Use Survey, this national household survey examines how individuals aged 15 years or older in the United States spend their time within a 24-hour period. Findings: In 2011 to 2019, U.S. full-time workers averaged 8.1 hours of work and 7.8 hours spent sleep on workdays, increasing to 9.6 hours on non-workdays. Among all occupations, Emergency medical technicians and paramedics had the longest average working hours (10.4 hours). Protective services occupations had the highest percentage (41.7%) of workers reporting often working shifts other than daytime. Among all industries, truck transportation industry had the longest average working hours (9.2). Food services and drinking places industries had the highest percentage (28.6%) of workers reporting often working shifts other than daytime. Working hours showed a negative association with sleeping hours. In 2020, 34.0% of full-time workers reported remote work due to COVID-19, with the largest percentage (72.3%) occurring in business and financial operations. Conclusions: The study findings offer essential benchmarks for comparing working hours and schedules across diverse occupations and industries. These insights empower occupational health practitioners to advocate for prevention measures, addressing health concerns arising from prolonged working hours and shift work. © 2024 The Author(s). |
Epidemiology of travel-associated Dengue from 2007 to 2022: A geosentinel analysis
Duvignaud A , Stoney RJ , Angelo DOKm , Chen LH , Cattaneo P , Motta L , Gobbi FG , Bottieau E , Bourque DL , Popescu CP , Glans H , Asgeirsson H , Oliveira-Souto I , Vaughan SD , Amatya B , Norman FF , Waggoner J , Diaz-Menendez M , Beadsworth M , Odolini S , Camprubí-Ferrer D , Epelboin L , Connor BA , Eperon G , Schwartz E , Libman M , Malvy D , Hamer DH , Huits R . J Travel Med 2024 BACKGROUND: Dengue is a leading cause of febrile illness among international travellers. We aimed to describe the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of imported dengue in returning travellers evaluated at GeoSentinel sites from 2007-2022. METHODS: We retrieved GeoSentinel records of dengue among travellers residing in non-endemic countries. We considered dengue confirmed when diagnosed by a positive DENV-specific RT-PCR, positive NS-1 antigen, and/or anti-DENV IgG seroconversion, and probable when diagnosed by single anti-DENV IgM or high titre anti-DENV IgG detection. Severe dengue was defined as evidence of clinically significant plasma leakage or bleeding, organ failure, or shock, according to the 2009 WHO guidance. Complicated dengue was defined as either severe dengue or dengue with presence of any warning sign. Analyses were descriptive. RESULTS: This analysis included 5958 travellers with confirmed (n = 4859; 81.6%) or probable (n = 1099; 18.4%) dengue. The median age was 33 years (range: < 1-91); 3007 (50.5%) travellers were female. The median travel duration was 21 days (interquartile range [IQR]: 15-32). The median time between illness onset and GeoSentinel site visit was 7 days (IQR: 4-15). The most frequent reasons for travel were tourism (67.3%), visiting friends or relatives (12.2%), and business (11.0%). The most frequent regions of acquisition were Southeast Asia (50.4%), South-Central Asia (14.9%), the Caribbean (10.9%), and South America (9.2%). Ninety-five (1.6%) travellers had complicated dengue, of whom 27 (0.5%) had severe dengue, and one died. Of 2710 travellers with data available, 724 (26.7%) were hospitalized. The largest number of cases (n = 835) was reported in 2019. CONCLUSIONS: A broad range of international travellers should be aware of the risk of acquiring dengue and receive appropriate pretravel counselling regarding preventive measures. Prospective cohort studies are needed to further elucidate dengue risk by destination and over time, as well as severe outcomes and prolonged morbidity (long-dengue) due to travel-related dengue. |
Intestinal protozoa in returning travellers: a GeoSentinel analysis from 2007 to 2019
Weitzel T , Brown A , Libman M , Perret C , Huits R , Chen L , Leung DT , Leder K , Connor BA , Menéndez MD , Asgeirsson H , Schwartz E , Salvador F , Malvy D , Saio M , Norman FF , Amatya B , Duvignaud A , Vaughan S , Glynn M , Angelo KM . J Travel Med 2024 31 (4) BACKGROUND: Prolonged diarrhoea is common amongst returning travellers and is often caused by intestinal protozoa. However, the epidemiology of travel-associated illness caused by protozoal pathogens is not well described. METHODS: We analysed records of returning international travellers with illness caused by Giardia duodenalis, Cryptosporidium spp., Cyclospora cayetanensis or Cystoisospora belli, reported to the GeoSentinel Network during January 2007-December 2019. We excluded records of travellers migrating, with an unascertainable exposure country, or from GeoSentinel sites that were not located in high-income countries. RESULTS: There were 2517 cases, 82.3% giardiasis (n = 2072), 11.4% cryptosporidiosis (n = 287), 6.0% cyclosporiasis (n = 150) and 0.3% cystoisosporiasis (n = 8). Overall, most travellers were tourists (64.4%) on long trips (median durations: 18-30 days). Cryptosporidiosis more frequently affected people < 18 years (13.9%) and cyclosporiasis affected people ≥ 40 years (59.4%). Giardiasis was most frequently acquired in South Central Asia (45.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (22.6%), cryptosporidiosis in sub-Saharan Africa (24.7%) and South-Central Asia (19.5%), cyclosporiasis in South East Asia (31.3%) and Central America (27.3%), and cystoisosporiasis in sub-Saharan Africa (62.5%). Cyclosporiasis cases were reported from countries of uncertain endemicity (e.g. Cambodia) or in countries with no previous evidence of this parasite (e.g. French Guiana). The time from symptom onset to presentation at a GeoSentinel site was the longest amongst travellers with giardiasis (median: 30 days). Over 14% of travellers with cryptosporidiosis were hospitalized. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides new insights into the epidemiology and clinical significance of four intestinal protozoa that can cause morbidity in international travellers. These data might help optimize pretravel advice and post-travel management of patients with travel-associated prolonged gastrointestinal illnesses. This analysis reinforces the importance of international travel-related surveillance to identify sentinel cases and areas where protozoal infections might be undetected or underreported. |
Cases of meningococcal disease associated with travel to Saudi Arabia for Umrah Pilgrimage - United States, United Kingdom, and France, 2024
Vachon MS , Barret AS , Lucidarme J , Neatherlin J , Rubis AB , Howie RL , Sharma S , Marasini D , Wagle B , Keating P , Antwi M , Chen J , Gu-Templin T , Gahr P , Zipprich J , Dorr F , Kuguru K , Lee S , Halai UA , Martin B , Budd J , Memish Z , Assiri AM , Farag NH , Taha MK , Deghmane AE , Zanetti L , Lefrançois R , Clark SA , Borrow R , Ladhani SN , Campbell H , Ramsay M , Fox L , McNamara LA . MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2024 73 (22) 514-516 Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD), caused by infection with the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis, usually manifests as meningitis or septicemia and can be severe and life-threatening (1). Six serogroups (A, B, C, W, X, and Y) account for most cases (2). N. meningitidis is transmitted person-to-person via respiratory droplets and oropharyngeal secretions. Asymptomatic persons can carry N. meningitidis and transmit the bacteria to others, potentially causing illness among susceptible persons. Outbreaks can occur in conjunction with large gatherings (3,4). Vaccines are available to prevent meningococcal disease. Antibiotic prophylaxis for close contacts of infected persons is critical to preventing secondary cases (2). |
Sport and recreation related concussion in children: National Concussion Surveillance System
Peterson AB , Waltzman D , Daugherty J , Chen J , Breiding M . Am J Prev Med 2024 INTRODUCTION: Concussions sustained during sports and recreational activities are a concern for young athletes. The purpose of this study was to estimate past 12-month sport- and recreation-related (SRR) traumatic brain injuries (TBIs) among a sample of children. METHODS: Pilot data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Concussion Surveillance System were analyzed. National Concussion Surveillance System utilized a cross-sectional random-digit-dial telephone survey using computer-assisted telephone interviewing to collect self/proxy-reported data from 2018 to 2019. Adults with children aged 5-17 in the household were asked about head injuries sustained by their children. Estimates were stratified by sociodemographic and injury circumstance characteristics. Data analysis occurred from April 2022 to July 2023. RESULTS: Utilizing a tiered case definition developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, an estimated 6.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 6.0%-7.8%) of the sample's 5-17-year-old children sustained at least one probable or possible SRR-TBI in the previous 12 months; 3.3% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.0%) of the children sustained at least one probable SRR-TBI. An estimated 63.6% (95% CI, 58.1%-69.0%) of all reported TBIs were attributed to SRR activities. Of the SRR-TBIs reported, 41.1% (95% CI, 33.0%-49.2%) were experienced while playing contact sports. Symptoms did not resolve for 8 or more days or had not resolved at the time of the interview for 18.1% (95% CI, 13.0%-23.1%) of the children's most recent SRR-TBI. CONCLUSIONS: Many proxy-reported TBIs among children aged 5-17 years were due to sports and recreational activities. Athletic trainers and healthcare providers can play a role in the prevention, identification, and management of SRR-TBIs in their respective environments. |
Outbreak of multidrug-resistant Salmonella infections in people linked to pig ear pet treats, United States, 2015–2019: results of a multistate investigation
Nichols M , Stapleton GS , Rotstein DS , Gollarza L , Adams J , Caidi H , Chen J , Hodges A , Glover M , Peloquin S , Payne L , Norris A , DeLancey S , Donovan D , Dietrich S , Glaspie S , McWilliams K , Burgess E , Holben B , Pietrzen K , Benko S , Feldpausch E , Orel S , Neises D , Kline KE , Tobin B , Caron G , Viveiros B , Miller A , Turner C , Holmes-Talbot K , Mank L , Nishimura C , Nguyen TN , Hale S , Francois Watkins LK . Lancet Reg Health - Am 2024 34 Background: International distribution of contaminated foods can be a source of Salmonella infections in people and can contribute to the spread of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria across countries. We report an investigation led by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and state governmental officials into a multistate outbreak of salmonellosis linked to pig ear pet treats. Methods: Pig ear treats and companion dogs were tested for Salmonella by state officials and the FDA. Products were traced back to the country of origin when possible. Cases were defined as outbreak illnesses in people associated with one of seven Salmonella serotypes genetically related to samples from pig ear pet treats, with isolation dates from June 2015 to September 2019. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) of isolates was used to predict antimicrobial resistance. Findings: The outbreak included 154 human cases in 34 states. Of these, 107 of 122 (88%) patients reported dog contact, and 65 of 97 (67%) reported contact with pig ear pet treats. Salmonella was isolated from 137 pig ear treats, including some imported from Argentina, Brazil, and Colombia, and from four dogs. WGS predicted 77% (105/137) of human and 43% (58/135) of pig ear treat isolates were resistant to ≥3 antimicrobial classes. Interpretation: This was the first documented United States multistate outbreak of Salmonella infections linked to pig ear pet treats. This multidrug-resistant outbreak highlights the interconnectedness of human health and companion animal ownership and the need for zoonotic pathogen surveillance to prevent human illness resulting from internationally transported pet food products. Funding: Animal Feed Regulatory Program Standards award. Animal and product testing conducted by FDA Vet-LIRN was funded by Vet-LIRN infrastructure grants ( PAR-22-063). © 2024 |
Understanding forms of childhood adversities and associations with adult health outcomes: A regression tree analysis
Perrins SP , Vermes E , Cincotta K , Xu Y , Godoy-Garraza L , Chen MS , Addison R , Douglas B , Yatco A , Idaikkadar N , Willis LA . Child Abuse Negl 2024 153 106844 BACKGROUND: Empirical studies have demonstrated associations between ten original adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and multiple health outcomes. Identifying expanded ACEs can capture the burden of other childhood adversities that may have important health implications. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify childhood adversities that warrant consideration as expanded ACEs. We hypothesized that experiencing expanded and original ACEs would be associated with poorer adult health outcomes compared to experiencing original ACEs alone. PARTICIPANTS: The 11,545 respondents of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) and Child and Young Adult Survey were 48.9 % female, 22.7 % Black, 15.8 % Hispanic, 36.1 % White, 1.7 % Asian/Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander/Native American/Native Alaskan, and 7.5 % Other. METHODS: This study used regression trees and generalized linear models to identify if/which expanded ACEs interacted with original ACEs in association with six health outcomes. RESULTS: Four expanded ACEs-basic needs instability, lack of parental love and affection, community stressors, and mother's experience with physical abuse during childhood -significantly interacted with general health, depressive symptom severity, anxiety symptom severity, and violent crime victimization in adulthood (all p-values <0.005). Basic needs instability and/or lack of parental love and affection emerged as correlates across multiple outcomes. Experiencing lack of parental love and affection and original ACEs was associated with greater anxiety symptoms (p = 0.022). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to use supervised machine learning to investigate interaction effects among original ACEs and expanded ACEs. Two expanded ACEs emerged as predictors for three adult health outcomes and warrant further consideration in ACEs assessments. |
An updated framework for SARS-CoV-2 variants reflects the unpredictability of viral evolution
Subissi L , Otieno JR , Worp N , Attar Cohen H , Oude Munnink BB , Abu-Raddad LJ , Alm E , Barakat A , Barclay WS , Bhiman JN , Caly L , Chand M , Chen M , Cullinane A , de Oliveira T , Drosten C , Druce J , Effler P , El Masry I , Faye A , Ghedin E , Grant R , Haagmans BL , Happi C , Herring BL , Hodcroft EB , Ikejezie J , Katawera V , Kassamali ZA , Leo YS , Leung GM , Kondor RJ , Marklewitz M , Mendez-Rico J , Melhem NM , Munster V , Nahapetyan K , Naindoo D , Oh DY , Peacock TP , Peiris M , Peng Z , Poon LLM , Rambaut A , Saha S , Shen Y , Siqueira MM , Volz E , Tessema SK , Thiel V , Triki H , van der Werf S , von Eije K , Cunningham J , Koopmans MPG , von Gottberg A , Agrawal A , Van Kerkhove MD . Nat Med 2024 |
Biomarkers of organophosphate and polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) flame retardants of American workers and associations with inhalation and dermal exposures
Estill CF , Mayer AC , Chen IC , Slone J , LaGuardia MJ , Jayatilaka N , Ospina M , Sjodin A , Calafat AM . Environ Sci Technol 2024 This study evaluated workers' exposures to flame retardants, including polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), organophosphate esters (OPEs), and other brominated flame retardants (BFRs), in various industries. The study aimed to characterize OPE metabolite urinary concentrations and PBDE serum concentrations among workers from different industries, compare these concentrations between industries and the general population, and evaluate the likely route of exposure (dermal or inhalation). The results showed that workers from chemical manufacturing had significantly higher (p <0.05) urinary concentrations of OPE metabolites compared to other industries. Spray polyurethane foam workers had significantly higher (p <0.05) urinary concentrations of bis(1-chloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BCPP) compared to other industries. Electronic scrap workers had higher serum concentrations of certain PBDE congeners compared to the general population. Correlations were observed between hand wipe samples and air samples containing specific flame-retardant parent chemicals and urinary metabolite concentrations for some industries, suggesting both dermal absorption and inhalation as primary routes of exposure for OPEs. Overall, this study provides insights into occupational exposure to flame retardants in different industries and highlights the need for further research on emerging flame retardants and exposure reduction interventions. |
Challenges of COVID-19 case forecasting in the US, 2020-2021
Lopez VK , Cramer EY , Pagano R , Drake JM , O'Dea EB , Adee M , Ayer T , Chhatwal J , Dalgic OO , Ladd MA , Linas BP , Mueller PP , Xiao J , Bracher J , Castro Rivadeneira AJ , Gerding A , Gneiting T , Huang Y , Jayawardena D , Kanji AH , Le K , Mühlemann A , Niemi J , Ray EL , Stark A , Wang Y , Wattanachit N , Zorn MW , Pei S , Shaman J , Yamana TK , Tarasewicz SR , Wilson DJ , Baccam S , Gurung H , Stage S , Suchoski B , Gao L , Gu Z , Kim M , Li X , Wang G , Wang L , Wang Y , Yu S , Gardner L , Jindal S , Marshall M , Nixon K , Dent J , Hill AL , Kaminsky J , Lee EC , Lemaitre JC , Lessler J , Smith CP , Truelove S , Kinsey M , Mullany LC , Rainwater-Lovett K , Shin L , Tallaksen K , Wilson S , Karlen D , Castro L , Fairchild G , Michaud I , Osthus D , Bian J , Cao W , Gao Z , Lavista Ferres J , Li C , Liu TY , Xie X , Zhang S , Zheng S , Chinazzi M , Davis JT , Mu K , Pastore YPiontti A , Vespignani A , Xiong X , Walraven R , Chen J , Gu Q , Wang L , Xu P , Zhang W , Zou D , Gibson GC , Sheldon D , Srivastava A , Adiga A , Hurt B , Kaur G , Lewis B , Marathe M , Peddireddy AS , Porebski P , Venkatramanan S , Wang L , Prasad PV , Walker JW , Webber AE , Slayton RB , Biggerstaff M , Reich NG , Johansson MA . PLoS Comput Biol 2024 20 (5) e1011200 During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making. |
Biodynamic modeling and analysis of human-exoskeleton interactions during assisted manual handling
Chen Y , Yin W , Zheng L , Mehta R , Zhang X . Proc Hum Factors Ergon Soc 2023 67 803-806 The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of a back exoskeleton on joint kinematics and kinetics during assisted manual handling tasks using subject-specific musculoskeletal biodynamic models and model-based analyses. We constructed these musculoskeletal models using OpenSim (Delp et al., 2007), incorporating optical motion capture, ground reaction forces (GRFs) measurements, and humanexoskeleton interactive force input. Our long-term goal is to enable digital modeling and simulation that can aid in the design and development of more effective exoskeletons and safer manual handling practices. © 2023 Human Factors and Ergonomics Society. |
Gestational PBDE concentrations, persistent externalizing, and emerging internalizing behaviors in adolescents: The HOME study
Cecil KM , Xu Y , Chen A , Khoury J , Altaye M , Braun JM , Sjodin A , Lanphear BP , Newman N , Strawn JR , Vuong AM , Yolton K . Environ Res 2024 252 118981 BACKGROUND: Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are ubiquitous environmental chemicals used as flame retardants in commercial and consumer products. Gestational PBDE concentrations are associated with adverse behaviors in children; however, the persistence of these associations into adolescence remains understudied. OBJECTIVE: We estimated the association of gestational PBDE serum concentrations with early adolescent self- and caregiver-reported behaviors at age 12 years and determined the consistency with previously observed associations in childhood with caregiver-reported behaviors in a prospective pregnancy and birth cohort. METHODS: We measured maternal serum concentrations of five individual PBDE congeners and created a summary exposure variable (∑(5)BDE: 28, -47, -99, -100 and -153) during pregnancy. At age 12 years, we assessed behaviors for 237 adolescents using self- and caregiver-reports with the Behavioral Assessment System for Children-3 (BASC3). We used multivariable linear regression models to estimate covariate-adjusted associations of lipid standardized, log(10)-transformed gestational PBDE concentrations with BASC3 scores. We obtained estimates and 95% confidence intervals through a bootstrapping approach. We evaluated potential effect measure modification (EMM) of adolescent sex by examining sex-stratified regression models and estimating the EMM p-values. RESULTS: Gestational PBDE concentrations were positively associated with adolescent-reported BASC3 composite indices for inattention & hyperactivity (BDE-28, -47, -99, -100, ∑(5)BDE), internalizing problems (BDE-28, -47, -99), functional impairment (BDE-28, ∑(5)BDE), and emotional symptoms (BDE-28). Gestational PBDE concentrations were positively associated with caregiver-reported BASC3 composite indices for externalizing problems (BDE-28, -47, -99, -100, -153, ∑(5)BDE) and behavioral symptoms (BDE-99). For caregiver reported behaviors, we observed stronger associations with gestational BDE concentrations among males, especially for executive functioning (BDE-28, -47, -99, -100, ∑(5)BDE). DISCUSSION: Gestational PBDE serum concentrations were associated with self-reported internalizing and externalizing behavior problems in early adolescence. Caregiver-reported externalizing behaviors recognized during childhood remain associated with gestational PBDE concentrations and persist into early adolescence. Internalizing behaviors were less recognized by caregivers. |
Descriptive epidemiology of pathogens associated with acute respiratory infection in a community-based study of K-12 school children (2015-2023)
Bell C , Goss M , Norton D , Barlow S , Temte E , He C , Hamer C , Walters S , Sabry A , Johnson K , Chen G , Uzicanin A , Temte J . Pathogens 2024 13 (4) School-based outbreaks often precede increased incidence of acute respiratory infections in the greater community. We conducted acute respiratory infection surveillance among children to elucidate commonly detected pathogens in school settings and their unique characteristics and epidemiological patterns. The ORegon CHild Absenteeism due to Respiratory Disease Study (ORCHARDS) is a longitudinal, laboratory-supported, school-based, acute respiratory illness (ARI) surveillance study designed to evaluate the utility of cause-specific student absenteeism monitoring for early detection of increased activity of influenza and other respiratory viruses in schools from kindergarten through 12th grade. Eligible participants with ARIs provided demographic, epidemiologic, and symptom data, along with a nasal swab or oropharyngeal specimen. Multipathogen testing using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was performed on all specimens for 18 respiratory viruses and 2 atypical bacterial pathogens (Chlamydia pneumoniae and Mycoplasma pneumoniae). Between 5 January 2015 and 9 June 2023, 3498 children participated. Pathogens were detected in 2455 of 3498 (70%) specimens. Rhinovirus/enteroviruses (36%) and influenza viruses A/B (35%) were most commonly identified in positive specimens. Rhinovirus/enteroviruses and parainfluenza viruses occurred early in the academic year, followed by seasonal coronaviruses, RSV, influenza viruses A/B, and human metapneumovirus. Since its emergence in 2020, SARS-CoV-2 was detected year-round and had a higher median age than the other pathogens. A better understanding of the etiologies, presentations, and patterns of pediatric acute respiratory infections can help inform medical and public health system responses. |
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