BACKGROUND: Egg-based inactivated quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (eIIV4), cell culture-based inactivated quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (ccIIV4), and recombinant haemagglutinin (HA)-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine (RIV4) have been licensed for use in the USA. In this study, we used antigen-specific serum proteomics analysis to assess how the molecular composition and qualities of the serological antibody repertoires differ after seasonal influenza immunisation by each of the three vaccines and how different vaccination platforms affect the HA binding affinity and breadth of the serum antibodies that comprise the polyclonal response. METHODS: In this comparative, prospective, observational cohort study, we included female US health-care personnel (mean age 47·6 years [SD 8]) who received a single dose of RIV4, eIIV4, or ccIIV4 during the 2018-19 influenza season at Baylor Scott & White Health (Temple, TX, USA). Eligible individuals were selected based on comparable day 28 serum microneutralisation titres and similar vaccination history. Laboratory investigators were blinded to assignment until testing was completed. The preplanned exploratory endpoints were assessed by deconvoluting the serological repertoire specific to A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 (H3N2) HA before (day 0) and after (day 28) immunisation using bottom-up liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry proteomics (referred to as Ig-Seq) and natively paired variable heavy chain-variable light chain high-throughput B-cell receptor sequencing (referred to as BCR-Seq). Features of the antigen-specific serological repertoire at day 0 and day 28 for the three vaccine groups were compared. Antibodies identified with high confidence in sera were recombinantly expressed and characterised in depth to determine the binding affinity and breadth to time-ordered H3 HA proteins. FINDINGS: During September and October of the 2018-19 influenza season, 15 individuals were recruited and assigned to receive RIV4 (n=5), eIIV4 (n=5), or ccIIV4 (n=5). For all three cohorts, the serum antibody repertoire was dominated by back-boosted antibody lineages (median 98% [95% CI 88-99]) that were present in the serum before vaccination. Although vaccine platform-dependent differences were not evident in the repertoire diversity, somatic hypermutation, or heavy chain complementarity determining region 3 biochemical features, antibodies boosted by RIV4 showed substantially higher binding affinity to the vaccine H3/HA (median half-maximal effective concentration [EC50] to A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 HA: 0·037 μg/mL [95% CI 0·012-0·12] for RIV4; 4·43 μg/mL [0·030-100·0] for eIIV4; and 18·50 μg/mL [0·99-100·0] μg/mL for ccIIV4) and also the HAs from contemporary H3N2 strains than did those elicited by eIIV4 or ccIIV4 (median EC50 to A/Texas/50/2012 HA: 0·037 μg/mL [0·017-0·32] for RIV4; 1·10 μg/mL [0·045-100] for eIIV4; and 12·6 μg/mL [1·8-100] for ccIIV4). Comparison of B-cell receptor sequencing repertoires on day 7 showed that eIIV4 increased the median frequency of canonical egg glycan-targeting B cells (0·20% [95% CI 0·067-0·37] for eIIV4; 0·058% [0·050-0·11] for RIV4; and 0·035% [0-0·062] for ccIIV4), whereas RIV4 vaccination decreased the median frequency of B-cell receptors displaying stereotypical features associated with membrane proximal anchor-targeting antibodies (0·062% [95% CI 0-0·084] for RIV4; 0·12% [0·066-0·16] for eIIV4; and 0·18% [0·016-0·20] for ccIIV4). In exploratory analysis, we characterised the structure of a highly abundant monoclonal antibody that binds to both group 1 and 2 HAs and recognises the HA trimer interface, despite its sequence resembling the stereotypical sequence motif found in membrane-proximal anchor binding antibodies. INTERPRETATION: Although all three licensed seasonal influenza vaccines elicit serological antibody repertoires with indistinguishable features shaped by heavy imprinting, the RIV4 vaccine selectively boosts higher affinity monoclonal antibodies to contemporary strains and elicits greater serum binding potency and breadth, possibly as a consequence of the multivalent structural features of the HA immunogen in this vaccine formulation. Collectively, our findings show advantages of RIV4 vaccines and more generally highlight the benefits of multivalent HA immunogens in promoting higher affinity serum antibody responses. FUNDING: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institutes of Health, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) mediate host defense against viral and intracellular bacterial infections and tumors. However, the magnitude of CTL response and their function needed to confer heterosubtypic immunity against influenza virus infection are unknown. We addressed the role of CD8(+) T cells in the absence of any cross-reactive antibody responses to influenza viral proteins using an adenoviral vector expressing a 9mer amino acid sequence recognized by CD8(+) T cells. Our results indicate that both CD8(+) T cell frequency and function are crucial for heterosubtypic immunity. Low morbidity, lower viral lung titers, low to minimal lung pathology, and better survival upon heterosubtypic virus challenge correlated with the increased frequency of NP-specific CTLs. NP-CD8(+) T cells induced by differential infection doses displayed distinct RNA transcriptome profiles and functional properties. CD8(+) T cells induced by a high dose of influenza virus secreted significantly higher levels of IFN-γ and exhibited higher levels of cytotoxic function. The mice that received NP-CD8(+) T cells from the high-dose virus recipients through adoptive transfer had lower viral titers following viral challenge than those induced by the low dose of virus, suggesting differential cellular programming by antigen dose. Enhanced NP-CD8(+) T-cell functions induced by a higher dose of influenza virus strongly correlated with the increased expression of cellular and metabolic genes, indicating a shift to a more glycolytic metabolic phenotype. These findings have implications for developing effective T cell vaccines against infectious diseases and cancer. IMPORTANCE: Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs) are an important component of the adaptive immune system that clears virus-infected cells or tumor cells. Hence, developing next-generation vaccines that induce or recall CTL responses against cancer and infectious diseases is crucial. However, it is not clear if the frequency, function, or both are essential in conferring protection, as in the case of influenza. In this study, we demonstrate that both CTL frequency and function are crucial for providing heterosubtypic immunity to influenza by utilizing an Ad-viral vector expressing a CD8 epitope only to rule out the role of antibodies, single-cell RNA-seq analysis, as well as adoptive transfer experiments. Our findings have implications for developing T cell vaccines against infectious diseases and cancer.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

BACKGROUND: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) such as syphilis and HIV remain to be a significant public health issue worldwide. Dual rapid point-of-care tests (POCTs) have shown promise for detecting antibodies to HIV and syphilis but have not been fully evaluated in the field. Our study supported the WHO ProSPeRo study on Sexually Transmitted Infection Point-of-Care Testing (STI POCT) by providing external quality assessment (EQA) for HIV and syphilis testing in reference laboratories and their associated clinical sites in seven countries. METHODS: HIV/syphilis serum liquid and dried tube specimen (DTS) panels were prepared by CDC. Liquid panels were distributed to the reference laboratories for three rounds of testing using commercially and locally available laboratory-based serological tests. DTS panels were sent to the clinical testing sites for 8 rounds of POC testing using the Abbott SD BIOLINE HIV/Syphilis Duo test (hereafter referred to as SD BIOLINE) and the Chembio Dual Path Platform (DPP) HIV-Syphilis assay. EQA panels were tested at CDC using the Rapid Plasma Reagin (RPR) test and the Treponema pallidum Particle Agglutination assay (TP-PA) for syphilis antibodies. Genetic Systems HIV-1/HIV-2 Plus O EIA, Geenius HIV Supplemental Assay and the Oraquick Advance HIV test were used to detect HIV antibodies in the EQA panels. Results from the reference laboratories and POCT sites were compared to those obtained at the CDC and a percentage agreement was calculated. RESULTS: Qualitative RPR and TP-PA performed at the reference laboratories demonstrated 95.4-100% agreement with CDC results while quantitative RPR and TP-PA tests demonstrated 87.7% and 89.2% agreement, respectively. A 93.8% concordance rate was observed for qualitative HIV testing in laboratories. EQA testing at clinical sites using dual tests showed 98.7% and 99.1% agreement for detection of HIV antibodies and eight out of 10 sites had > 95.8% agreement for syphilis testing. However, two clinical sites showed only 65.0-66.7% agreement for SD BIOLINE and 84.0-86.7% for DPP, respectively, for syphilis testing. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, laboratories demonstrated high EQA performance in this study. Both HIV/syphilis POCTs gave expected results in the clinic-based evaluations using DTS. However, testing errors were identified in a few testing sites suggesting the necessity for continuous training and monitoring the quality of POC testing.

OBJECTIVES: Accuracy of estradiol measurements is important but conventional proficiency testing (PT) cannot assess accuracy when possibly non-commutable samples are used and method peer-group means are the targets. Accuracy-based assessment of estradiol measurements is needed. Design and Methods Five serum samples were prepared from single donors, frozen, and distributed overnight to 76 New York State Department of Health (NYSDOH)-certified laboratories. Participants analyzed samples for estradiol. The biases of group means were assessed against the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-defined targets, evaluated using the Hormones Standardization Program (HoSt) E2 performance criterion of ±12.5%. Each laboratory's performance was evaluated using total allowable error (acceptance limits) of target ±25% or ±15 pg/mL (55.1 pmol/L) (whichever was greater, NYSDOH), target ±30% (Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments [CLIA]), and target ±26% (minimal limit based on biological variation [BV]). RESULTS: The biases (range) were 34% (-17% to 175%), 40% (-33% to 386%), 16% (-45% to 193%), 5% (-27% to 117%), and -4% (-31% to 21%), for samples at estradiol of 24.1, 28.4, 61.7, 94.1 and 127 pg/mL, or 88.5, 104.3, 226.5, 245.4 and 466.2 pmol/L, respectively. Large positive method/analytical systematic biases were revealed for 9 commonly used method/analytical systems in the United States at low estradiol concentrations. Of the 9 analytical systems, 0, 0, 3, 7 and 6 met the HoSt criterion for the samples with estradiol at the five respective concentrations. PT evaluation showed that 59%, 69% and 87% of laboratories would receive a PT event pass score when the CDC-defined target and a criterion of NYSDOH, CLIA or BV was used, respectively. However, >95% laboratories would obtain PT pass score if method peer-group means were used as targets regardless of the criterion used. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in accuracy of estradiol measurements is needed, particularly at low estradiol concentrations. Accuracy-based PT provides unambiguous information about the accuracy of methods/analytical systems.

INTRODUCTION: The reemergence of syphilis, especially congenital syphilis, presents a significant public health threat. Accurate diagnosis of syphilis depends on recognition of a constellation of symptoms, review of medical and sexual history, and multiple laboratory tests. While reliable, current tests for syphilis can be difficult to interpret, which can lead to delays in treatment. AREA COVERED: This review summarizes the major advantages and limitations of available diagnostic laboratory methods for syphilis, provides an update on recent advances in laboratory tools, and highlights the urgent need for coordinated efforts to create new tools to halt the resurgence of syphilis. EXPERT OPINION: In syphilis, the wide variety of short-lived signs and symptoms followed by periods of latency create diagnostics challenges. Currently available laboratory tests, when positive, require additional information to interpret (prior testing, treatment, and sexual history). Point-of-care tests that can rapidly and accurately detect both treponemal and non-treponemal antibodies would be a huge step toward reducing test turnaround time and time to treatment. Incorporating biological insights and technology innovations to advance the development of direct detection assays is urgently needed. A comprehensive coordinated effort is critical to stem the tide of rising syphilis in the United States and globally.

In April 2023, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by one new family, 14 new genera, and 140 new species. Two genera and 538 species were renamed. One species was moved, and four were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV.

Ocular syphilis is a serious complication of Treponema pallidum infection that can occur at any stage of syphilis and affect any eye structure. It remains unknown if certain T. pallidum strains are associated with ocular infections; therefore, we performed genotyping and whole genome sequencing (WGS) to characterize strains from patients with ocular syphilis. Seventy-five ocular or non-ocular specimens from 55 ocular syphilis patients in 14 states within the United States were collected between February 2016 and November 2020. Sufficient T. pallidum DNA was available from nine patients for genotyping and three for WGS. Genotyping was done using the augmented Centers for Disease Control and Prevention typing scheme, and WGS was performed on Illumina platforms. Multilocus sequence typing allelic profiles were predicted from whole genome sequence data. T. pallidum DNA was detected in various specimens from 17 (30.9%) of the 55 patients, and typing was done on samples from 9 patients. Four complete strain types (14d10/g, 14b9/g, 14d9/g, and 14e9/f) and five partial types were identified. WGS was successful on samples from three patients and all three strains belonged to the SS14 clade of T. pallidum. Our data reveal that multiple strain types are associated with ocular manifestations of syphilis. While genotyping and WGS were challenging due to low amounts of T. pallidum DNA in specimens, we successfully performed WGS on cerebrospinal fluid, vitreous fluid, and whole blood.IMPORTANCESyphilis is caused by the spirochete Treponema pallidum. Total syphilis rates have increased significantly over the past two decades in the United States, and the disease remains a public health concern. In addition, ocular syphilis cases has also been on the rise, coinciding with the overall increase in syphilis rates. We conducted a molecular investigation utilizing traditional genotyping and whole genome sequencing over a 5-year period to ascertain if specific T. pallidum strains are associated with ocular syphilis. Genotyping and phylogenetic analysis show that multiple T. pallidum strain types are associated with ocular syphilis in the United States.

We performed whole-genome sequencing of 174 Salmonella Typhi and 54 Salmonella Paratyphi A isolates collected through prospective surveillance in the context of a phased typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction in Navi Mumbai, India. We investigate the temporal and geographical patterns of emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. We evaluated the relationship between the spatial distance between households and genetic clustering of isolates. Most isolates were non-susceptible to fluoroquinolones, with nearly 20% containing ≥3 quinolone resistance-determining region mutations. Two H58 isolates carried an IncX3 plasmid containing bla(SHV-12), associated with ceftriaxone resistance, suggesting that the ceftriaxone-resistant isolates from India independently evolved on multiple occasions. Among S. Typhi, we identified two main clades circulating (2.2 and 4.3.1 [H58]); 2.2 isolates were closely related following a single introduction around 2007, whereas H58 isolates had been introduced multiple times to the city. Increasing geographic distance between isolates was strongly associated with genetic clustering (odds ratio [OR] = 0.72 per km; 95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.66-0.79). This effect was seen for distances up to 5 km (OR = 0.65 per km; 95% CrI: 0.59-0.73) but not seen for distances beyond 5 km (OR = 1.02 per km; 95% CrI: 0.83-1.26). There was a non-significant reduction in odds of clustering for pairs of isolates in vaccination communities compared with non-vaccination communities or mixed pairs compared with non-vaccination communities. Our findings indicate that S. Typhi was repeatedly introduced into Navi Mumbai and then spread locally, with strong evidence of spatial genetic clustering. In addition to vaccination, local interventions to improve water and sanitation will be critical to interrupt transmission. IMPORTANCE Enteric fever remains a major public health concern in many low- and middle-income countries, as antimicrobial resistance (AMR) continues to emerge. Geographical patterns of typhoidal Salmonella spread, critical to monitoring AMR and planning interventions, are poorly understood. We performed whole-genome sequencing of S. Typhi and S. Paratyphi A isolates collected in Navi Mumbai, India before and after a typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction. From timed phylogenies, we found two dominant circulating lineages of S. Typhi in Navi Mumbai-lineage 2.2, which expanded following a single introduction a decade prior, and 4.3.1 (H58), which had been introduced repeatedly from other parts of India, frequently containing "triple mutations" conferring high-level ciprofloxacin resistance. Using Bayesian hierarchical statistical models, we found that spatial distance between cases was strongly associated with genetic clustering at a fine scale (<5 km). Together, these findings suggest that antimicrobial-resistant S. Typhi frequently flows between cities and then spreads highly locally, which may inform surveillance and prevention strategies.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

We performed whole genome sequencing of 174 Salmonella Typhi and 54 Salmonella Paratyphi A isolates collected through prospective and retrospective surveillance in the context of a phased typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction in Navi Mumbai, India. We investigate the temporal and geographical patters of emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between the spatial distance between households and genetic clustering of isolates using hierarchical Bayesian models. Most isolates were non-susceptible to fluoroquinolones, with nearly 20% containing >=3 mutations in the quinolone resistance determining region, conferring high-level resistance. Two H58 isolates carried an IncX3 resistance plasmid containing bla<inf>SHV-12</inf>, associated with ceftriaxone resistance, suggesting that the ceftriaxone-resistant S. Typhi isolates from India have evolved independently on multiple occasions. Among S. Typhi isolates, we identified two main clades circulating in Navi Mumbai (2.2 and 4.3.1 [H58]); 2.2 isolates were closely related following a single introduction around 2007, whereas H58 isolates had been introduced multiple times to the city. Increasing geographic distance between isolates was strongly associated with genetic clustering (OR 0.72 per km; 95% CrI: 0.66-0.79). This effect was seen for distances up to 5 km (OR 0.65 per km; 95% CrI: 0.59-0.73) but was not seen for distances beyond 5 km (OR 1.02 per km; 95% CrI: 0.83-1.26). Our findings indicate that S. Typhi was repeatedly introduced into Navi Mumbai and then spread locally, with strong evidence of spatial-genetic clustering. In addition to vaccination, local interventions to improve water and sanitation will be critical to interrupt transmission. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), which include abuse and neglect and various household challenges like exposure to intimate partner violence and substance use in the home can have negative impacts on lifelong health of affected individuals. Among various strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of ACEs is to enhance connectedness and social support for those who have experienced ACEs. However, how social networks of those who experienced ACEs differ from those who did not is poorly understood. In the present study, we use Reddit and Twitter data to investigate and compare social networks among individuals with and without ACEs exposure. We first use a neural network classifier to identify the presence or absence of public ACEs disclosures in social media posts. We then analyze egocentric social networks comparing individuals with self-reported ACEs to those with no reported history. We found that, although individuals reporting ACEs had fewer total followers in online social networks, they had higher reciprocity in following behavior (i.e., mutual following with other users), a higher tendency to follow and be followed by other individuals with ACEs, and a higher tendency to follow back individuals with ACEs rather than individuals without ACEs. These results imply that individuals with ACEs may try to actively connect to others having similar prior traumatic experiences as a positive connection and coping strategy. Supportive interpersonal connections online for individuals with ACEs appear to be a prevalent behavior and may be a way to enhance social connectedness and resilience in those who have experienced ACEs. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.

Downstream next generation sequencing (NGS) of the syphilis spirochete Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum (T. pallidum) is hindered by low bacterial loads and the overwhelming presence of background metagenomic DNA in clinical specimens. In this study, we investigated selective whole genome amplification (SWGA) utilizing multiple displacement amplification (MDA) in conjunction with custom oligonucleotides with an increased specificity for the T. pallidum genome, and the capture and removal of CpG-methylated host DNA using the NEBNext Microbiome DNA Enrichment Kit followed by MDA with the REPLI-g Single Cell Kit as enrichment methods to improve the yields of T. pallidum DNA in isolates and lesion specimens from syphilis patients. Sequencing was performed using the Illumina MiSeq v2 500 cycle or NovaSeq 6000 SP platform. These two enrichment methods led to 93-98% genome coverage at 5 reads/site in 5 clinical specimens from the United States and rabbit propagated isolates, containing >14 T. pallidum genomic copies/ul of sample for SWGA and >129 genomic copies/ul for CpG methylation capture with MDA. Variant analysis using sequencing data derived from SWGA-enriched specimens, showed that all 5 clinical strains had the A2058G mutation associated with azithromycin resistance. SWGA is a robust method that allows direct whole genome sequencing (WGS) of specimens containing very low numbers of T. pallidum, which have been challenging until now. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. This article is a US Government work. It is not subject to copyright under 17 USC 105 and is also made available for use under a CC0 license.

BACKGROUND: Emerging data suggest that second-generation influenza vaccines with higher hemagglutinin (HA) antigen content and/or different production methods may induce stronger antibody responses to HA than standard-dose egg-based influenza vaccines in adults. We compared antibody responses to high-dose egg-based inactivated (HD-IIV3), recombinant (RIV4), and cell culture-based (ccIIV4) vs standard-dose egg-based inactivated influenza vaccine (SD-IIV4) among health care personnel (HCP) aged 18-65 years in 2 influenza seasons (2018-2019, 2019-2020). METHODS: In the second trial season, newly and re-enrolled HCPs who received SD-IIV4 in season 1 were randomized to receive RIV4, ccIIV4, or SD-IIV4 or were enrolled in an off-label, nonrandomized arm to receive HD-IIV3. Prevaccination and 1-month-postvaccination sera were tested by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay against 4 cell culture propagated vaccine reference viruses. Primary outcomes, adjusted for study site and baseline HI titer, were seroconversion rate (SCR), geometric mean titers (GMTs), mean fold rise (MFR), and GMT ratios that compared vaccine groups to SD-IIV4. RESULTS: Among 390 HCP in the per-protocol population, 79 received HD-IIV3, 103 RIV4, 106 ccIIV4, and 102 SD-IIV4. HD-IIV3 recipients had similar postvaccination antibody titers compared with SD-IIV4 recipients, whereas RIV4 recipients had significantly higher 1-month-postvaccination antibody titers against vaccine reference viruses for all outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: HD-IIV3 did not induce higher antibody responses than SD-IIV4, but, consistent with previous studies, RIV4 was associated with higher postvaccination antibody titers. These findings suggest that recombinant vaccines rather than vaccines with higher egg-based antigen doses may provide improved antibody responses in highly vaccinated populations.

BACKGROUND: Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), which include abuse and neglect and various household challenges such as exposure to intimate partner violence and substance use in the home, can have negative impacts on the lifelong health of affected individuals. Among various strategies for mitigating the adverse effects of ACEs is to enhance connectedness and social support for those who have experienced them. However, how the social networks of those who experienced ACEs differ from the social networks of those who did not is poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we used Reddit and Twitter data to investigate and compare social networks between individuals with and without ACE exposure. METHODS: We first used a neural network classifier to identify the presence or absence of public ACE disclosures in social media posts. We then analyzed egocentric social networks comparing individuals with self-reported ACEs with those with no reported history. RESULTS: We found that, although individuals reporting ACEs had fewer total followers in web-based social networks, they had higher reciprocity in following behavior (ie, mutual following with other users), a higher tendency to follow and be followed by other individuals with ACEs, and a higher tendency to follow back individuals with ACEs rather than individuals without ACEs. CONCLUSIONS: These results imply that individuals with ACEs may try to actively connect with others who have similar previous traumatic experiences as a positive connection and coping strategy. Supportive interpersonal connections on the web for individuals with ACEs appear to be a prevalent behavior and may be a way to enhance social connectedness and resilience in those who have experienced ACEs.

Syphilis is a sexually transmitted disease (STD) caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum, subspecies pallidum (T. pallidum).1 The resurgence of syphilis in the last 2 decades is a major public health concern in the United States. In 2020, a total of 133 945 cases of all stages of syphilis were reported in the United States, an increase of more than 70% since 2015. The national rate of congenital syphilis has increased 254% since 2016. In 2020, a total of 2148 cases of congenital syphilis were reported, including 149 congenital syphilis–related stillbirths and infant deaths.2 However, syphilis diagnosis is still challenging, partially because of overlapping and ambiguous clinical presentation, particularly during early infection.3 For laboratory testing, darkfield microscopy examinations and direct molecular detection of T. pallidum from clinical specimens are definitive methods for diagnosing early syphilis, but both methods are currently not widely performed at local, reference, or public health laboratories and have challenges in identifying asymptomatic or early-stage infection without the presence of visible lesions for suitable specimen collection.4 Darkfield microscopy requires special equipment and experienced operators for reliable results.5 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)–cleared molecular tests for syphilis are still not available, and laboratory-developed molecular tests are limited in availability. Therefore, serological tests that detect treponemal and nontreponemal antibodies remain the mainstay for routine laboratory diagnosis of active syphilis infection.6

Automated nontreponemal rapid plasma reagin (RPR) tests were recently introduced in the United States for syphilis testing and limited performance data are available. In collaboration with the Association of Public Health Laboratories, three public health laboratories (PHL) were chosen through a competitive selection process to evaluate the performance of three FDA-cleared automated RPR test systems: BioPlex 2200 Syphilis Total & RPR assay (Bio-Rad Laboratories), AIX 1000 (Gold Standard Diagnostics), and ASI Evolution (Arlington Scientific). Panels prepared at the CDC included: a qualitative panel comprised of 734 syphilis reactive/nonreactive sera; a quantitative panel of 50 syphilis reactive sera (RPR titer 1:64 to 1:1,024); and a reproducibility panel of 15 nonreactive and reactive sera (RPR titer 1:1 to 1:64). Panels were shipped frozen to the PHL and tested on the automated RPR systems following manufacturers' instructions. Prior test results were blinded to all laboratories. When compared to manual RPR (Arlington Scientific) performed at the CDC as a reference test, the qualitative panel results demonstrated an overall concordance of 95.9% for AIX 1000, 94.6% for ASI Evolution, and 92.6% for Bioplex RPR; quantitative panel showed within range titer of 2-fold for 94% of specimens for AIX 1000, 68% for ASI Evolution, and 64% for BioPlex RPR, and the reproducibility testing panel demonstrated point estimates ranging from 69 to 95%. Automated RPR instruments could reduce turnaround time and minimize interpretation errors. However, additional evaluations with more specimens could assist laboratories with implementing automated RPR tests and understanding their limitations.

Simple Summary: This study identified a set of 73 microRNAs (miRNAs) that can accurately detect lung cancer tumors from normal lung tissues. Based on the consistent expression patterns associated with patient survival outcomes and in tumors vs. normal lung tissues, 10 miRNAs were considered to be putatively tumor suppressive and 4 miRNAs were deemed as oncogenic in lung cancer. From the list of genes that were targeted by the 73 diagnostic miRNAs, DGKE and WDR47 had significant associations with responses to both systemic therapies and radiotherapy in lung cancer. Based on our identified miRNA-regulated network, we discovered three drugs—BX-912, daunorubicin, and midostaurin—that can be repositioned to treat lung cancer, which was not known before. The majority of lung cancer patients are diagnosed with metastatic disease. This study identified a set of 73 microRNAs (miRNAs) that classified lung cancer tumors from normal lung tissues with an overall accuracy of 96.3% in the training patient cohort (n = 109) and 91.7% in unsupervised classification and 92.3% in supervised classification in the validation set (n = 375). Based on association with patient survival (n = 1016), 10 miRNAs were identified as potential tumor suppressors (hsa-miR-144, hsa-miR-195, hsa-miR-223, hsa-miR-30a, hsa-miR-30b, hsa-miR-30d, hsa-miR-335, hsa-miR-363, hsa-miR-451, and hsa-miR-99a), and 4 were identified as potential oncogenes (hsa-miR-21, hsa-miR-31, hsa-miR-411, and hsa-miR-494) in lung cancer. Experimentally confirmed target genes were identified for the 73 diagnostic miRNAs, from which proliferation genes were selected from CRISPR-Cas9/RNA interference (RNAi) screening assays. Pansensitive and panresistant genes to 21 NCCN-recommended drugs with concordant mRNA and protein expression were identified. DGKE and WDR47 were found with significant associations with responses to both systemic therapies and radiotherapy in lung cancer. Based on our identified miRNA-regulated molecular machinery, an inhibitor of PDK1/Akt BX-912, an anthracycline antibiotic daunorubicin, and a multi-targeted protein kinase inhibitor midostaurin were discovered as potential repositioning drugs for treating lung cancer. These findings have implications for improving lung cancer diagnosis, optimizing treatment selection, and discovering new drug options for better patient outcomes.

Introduction of monovalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in late 2020 helped to mitigate disproportionate COVID-19-related morbidity and mortality in U.S. nursing homes (1); however, reduced effectiveness of monovalent vaccines during the period of Omicron variant predominance led to recommendations for booster doses with bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccines that include an Omicron BA.4/BA.5 spike protein component to broaden immune response and improve vaccine effectiveness against circulating Omicron variants (2). Recent studies suggest that bivalent booster doses provide substantial additional protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19-associated disease among immunocompetent adults who previously received only monovalent vaccines (3).* The immunologic response after receipt of bivalent boosters among nursing home residents, who often mount poor immunologic responses to vaccines, remains unknown. Serial testing of anti-spike protein antibody binding and neutralizing antibody titers in serum collected from 233 long-stay nursing home residents from the time of their primary vaccination series and including any subsequent booster doses, including the bivalent vaccine, was performed. The bivalent COVID-19 mRNA vaccine substantially increased anti-spike and neutralizing antibody titers against Omicron sublineages, including BA.1 and BA.4/BA.5, irrespective of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection or previous receipt of 1 or 2 booster doses. These data, in combination with evidence of low uptake of bivalent booster vaccination among residents and staff members in nursing homes (4), support the recommendation that nursing home residents and staff members receive a bivalent COVID-19 booster dose to reduce associated morbidity and mortality (2).

BACKGROUND: Antibody responses to non-egg-based standard-dose cell-culture influenza vaccine (containing 15 µg hemagglutinin (HA)/component) and recombinant vaccine (containing 45 µg HA/component) during consecutive seasons have not been studied in the United States. METHODS: In a randomized trial of immunogenicity of quadrivalent influenza vaccines among healthcare personnel (HCP) aged 18-64 years over two consecutive seasons, HCP who received recombinant-hemagglutinin (RIV) or cell-culture-based vaccine (ccIIV) during the first season (Y1) were re-randomized the second season of 2019-2020 (Y2) to receive ccIIV or RIV, resulting in four ccIIV-RIV combinations. In Y2, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) antibody titers against reference cell-grown vaccine viruses were compared in each ccIIV-RIV group with titers among HCP randomized both seasons to receive egg-based, standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV), using geometric mean titer (GMT) ratios of Y2-post-vaccination titers. RESULTS: Y2 data from 414 HCPs were analyzed per-protocol. Compared to 60 IIV/IIV recipients, 74 RIV/RIV and 106 ccIIV/RIV recipients showed significantly elevated GMT ratios (Bonferroni corrected P <.007) against all components except A (H3N2). Post-vaccination GMT ratios for ccIIV/ccIIV and RIV/ccIIV were not significantly elevated compared to IIV/IIV except for RIV/ccIIV against A(H1N1)pdm09. CONCLUSIONS: In adult HCPs, receipt of RIV two consecutive seasons or the second season was more immunogenic than consecutive egg-based IIV for three of the four components of quadrivalent vaccine. Immunogenicity of ccIIV/ccIIV was similar to that of IIV/IIV. Differences in hemagglutinin antigen content may play a role in immunogenicity of influenza vaccination in consecutive seasons.

Escherichia albertii is an emerging enteric bacterial pathogen causing watery diarrhea, abdominal distension, vomiting and fever in humans. E. albertii has caused many foodborne outbreaks in Japan and was also reported in other countries worldwide. However, the important animal reservoirs of this pathogen are still largely unknown, impeding us to combat this emerging pathogen. Recently, we reported that wild raccoons (Procyon lotor) and broiler chickens are significant reservoirs of E. albertii in Japan and the U.S., respectively. Here, we performed a longitudinal surveillance to monitor prevalence of E. albertii in wild raccoons in the U.S. and conducted comprehensive comparative analyses of the E. albertii of different origins. A total of 289 fecal swab samples were collected from wild raccoons in Tennessee and Kentucky in the U.S. (2018-2020). Approximately 26% (74/289) of the raccoons examined were PCR-positive for E. albertii and eventually 22 E. albertii isolates were obtained. PFGE analysis showed the U.S. raccoon E. albertii were phylogenetically distant even though the corresponding raccoons were captured from a small area. Unlike the high prevalence of multidrug resistance (83%) observed in previous chicken E. albertii survey, antibiotic resistance was rarely observed in all the U.S. raccoon and 22 Japan raccoon strains with only one Japan strain displaying multidrug resistance (2%). Whole genome sequencing of 54 diverse E. albertii strains and subsequent comparative genomics analysis revealed unique clusters that displayed close evolutionary relationships and similar virulence gene profiles among the strains of different origins in terms of geographical locations (e.g., U.S. and Japan) and hosts (raccoon, chicken, swine, and human). Challenge experiment demonstrated raccoon E. albertii strains could successfully colonize in the chicken intestine at 3 and 8 days postinfection. A pilot environmental survey further showed all the four tested water samples from Tennessee river were E. albertii-positive; two different E. albertii strains, isolated from a single water sample, showed close relationships to those of human origin. Together, the findings from this study provide new insights into the ecology, evolution, and pathobiology of E. albertii, and underscore the need to control the emerging E. albertii in a complex ecosystem using One Health approach.

Downstream next-generation sequencing (NGS) of the syphilis spirochete Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum (T. pallidum) is hindered by low bacterial loads and the overwhelming presence of background metagenomic DNA in clinical specimens. In this study, we investigated selective whole-genome amplification (SWGA) utilizing multiple displacement amplification (MDA) in conjunction with custom oligonucleotides with an increased specificity for the T. pallidum genome and the capture and removal of 5'-C-phosphate-G-3' (CpG) methylated host DNA using the NEBNext Microbiome DNA enrichment kit followed by MDA with the REPLI-g single cell kit as enrichment methods to improve the yields of T. pallidum DNA in isolates and lesion specimens from syphilis patients. Sequencing was performed using the Illumina MiSeq v2 500 cycle or NovaSeq 6000 SP platform. These two enrichment methods led to 93 to 98% genome coverage at 5 reads/site in 5 clinical specimens from the United States and rabbit-propagated isolates, containing >14 T. pallidum genomic copies/μL of sample for SWGA and >129 genomic copies/μL for CpG methylation capture with MDA. Variant analysis using sequencing data derived from SWGA-enriched specimens showed that all 5 clinical strains had the A2058G mutation associated with azithromycin resistance. SWGA is a robust method that allows direct whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of specimens containing very low numbers of T. pallidum, which has been challenging until now. IMPORTANCE Syphilis is a sexually transmitted, disseminated acute and chronic infection caused by the bacterial pathogen Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. Primary syphilis typically presents as single or multiple mucocutaneous lesions and, if left untreated, can progress through multiple stages with various clinical manifestations. Molecular studies often rely on direct amplification of DNA sequences from clinical specimens; however, this can be impacted by inadequate samples due to disease progression or timing of patients seeking clinical care. While genotyping has provided important data on circulating strains over the past 2 decades, WGS data are needed to better understand strain diversity, perform evolutionary tracing, and monitor antimicrobial resistance markers. The significance of our research is the development of an SWGA DNA enrichment method that expands the range of clinical specimens that can be directly sequenced to include samples with low numbers of T. pallidum.

SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

The effect of extended refrigerated storage of 14 serum and plasma specimens on 5 syphilis serologic tests was evaluated for 16 weeks. Higher stability of nontreponemal and treponemal antibodies in serum was recorded compared to plasma. Described work may provide insights on refrigerated specimens' stability and suitability for syphilis tests.

The International Society for Influenza and other Respiratory Virus Diseases (isirv) and the WHO held a joint virtual conference from 19th-21st October 2021. While there was a major focus on the global response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, including antivirals, vaccines and surveillance strategies, papers were also presented on treatment and prevention of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Potential therapeutics for SARS-CoV-2 included host-targeted therapies baricitinib, a JAK inhibitor, tocilizumab, an IL-6R inhibitor, verdinexor and direct acting antivirals ensovibep, S-217622, AT-527, and monoclonal antibodies casirivimab and imdevimab, directed against the spike protein. Data from trials of nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody with a prolonged half-life which binds to the RSV F-protein, and an Ad26.RSV pre-F vaccine were also presented. The expanded role of the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System to address the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic was also discussed. This report summarizes the oral presentations given at this meeting for the benefit of the broader medical and scientific community involved in surveillance, treatment and prevention of respiratory virus diseases.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the field performance of a multiplex PCR (M-PCR) assay for detection of herpes simplex virus (HSV)-1 and HSV-2, Treponema pallidum (T. pallidum) and Haemophilus ducreyi (H. ducreyi) in genital ulcer disease (GUD) specimens. METHODS: GUD M-PCR was performed on 186 remnant specimens, previously collected for HSV testing, by four public health laboratories (PHLs) and the Laboratory Reference and Research Branch (LRRB) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The results from the PHLs were compared with those of LRRB, which served as the reference testing method, and percentage agreement was calculated. RESULTS: HSV was detected in 31 of 52 (59.6%), 20 of 40 (50%), 43 of 44 (97.7%) and 19 of 50 (38.0%) specimens from PHL1, PHL2, PHL3 and PHL4, respectively. There were seven discrepant results for HSV, and the overall percent agreement between the PHLs and the LRRB was 94%-100%, with a kappa value of 0.922, which demonstrates high agreement. T. pallidum was identified in 7 of 51 (13.7%) specimens from PHL1 with 94.1% agreement and in 2 of 40 (5.0%) specimens from PHL2 with 100% agreement. The LRRB identified three additional T. pallidum-positive specimens from PHL1. The kappa value (0.849) for T. pallidum testing suggests good agreement. Consistent with the LRRB results, no T. pallidum was detected in specimens from PHL3 and PHL4, and H. ducreyi was not detected at any of the study sites. CONCLUSIONS: The GUD M-PCR assay performed well in four independent PHLs and 12 suspected syphilis cases were identified in this study. The M-PCR assay could provide improved diagnostic options for GUD infections in state and local PHLs.

In March 2021, following the annual International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) ratification vote on newly proposed taxa, the phylum Negarnaviricota was amended and emended. The phylum was expanded by four families (Aliusviridae, Crepuscuviridae, Myriaviridae, and Natareviridae), three subfamilies (Alpharhabdovirinae, Betarhabdovirinae, and Gammarhabdovirinae), 42 genera, and 200 species. Thirty-nine species were renamed and/or moved and seven species were abolished. This article presents the updated taxonomy of Negarnaviricota as now accepted by the ICTV.

Innate Lymphoid Cells (ILCs) are a class of innate immune cells that form the first line of defense against internal or external abiotic and biotic challenges in the mammalian hosts. As they reside in both the lymphoid and non-lymphoid tissues, they are involved in clearing the pathogens through direct killing or by secretion of cytokines that modulate the adaptive immune responses. There is burgeoning evidence that these cells are important in clearing viral infections; therefore, it is critical to understand their role in the resolution or exacerbation of the disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2). In this review, we summarize the recent findings related to ILCs in response to SARS-CoV-2 infections.

Superoxide radicals and other reactive oxygen species (ROS) are implicated in influenza A virus-induced inflammation. In this in vitro study, we evaluated the effects of TG6-44, a novel quinazolin-derived myeloperoxidase-specific ROS inhibitor, on influenza A virus (A/X31) infection using THP-1 lung monocytic cells and freshly isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC). TG6-44 significantly decreased A/X31-induced ROS and virus-induced inflammatory mediators in THP-1 cells (IL-6, IFN-γ, MCP-1, TNF-α, MIP-1β) and in human PBMC (IL-6, IL-8, TNF-α, MCP-1). Interestingly, TG6-44-treated THP-1 cells showed a decrease in percent cells expressing viral nucleoprotein, as well as a delay in translocation of viral nucleoprotein into the nucleus. Furthermore, in influenza A virus-infected cells, TG6-44 treatment led to suppression of virus-induced cell death as evidenced by decreased caspase-3 activation, decreased proportion of Annexin V+PI+ cells, and increased Bcl-2 phosphorylation. Taken together, our results demonstrate the anti-inflammatory and anti-infective effects of TG6-44.