Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Beginning in December 2020, the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub has provided quantitative scenario-based projections for cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, aggregated across up to nine modeling groups. Projections spanned multiple months into the future and provided timely information on potential impacts of epidemiological uncertainties and interventions. Projections results were shared with the public, public health partners, and the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Response Team. The projections provided insights on situational awareness and informed decision-making to mitigate COVID-19 disease burden (e.g., vaccination strategies). By aggregating projections from multiple modeling teams, the Scenario Modeling Hub provided rapidly synthesized information in times of great uncertainty and conveyed possible trajectories in the presence of emerging variants. Here we detail several use cases of these projections in public health practice and communication, including assessments of whether modeling results directly or indirectly informed public health communication or guidance. These include multiple examples where comparisons of projected COVID-19 disease outcomes under different vaccination scenarios were used to inform Advisory Committee for Immunization Practices recommendations. We also describe challenges and lessons learned during this highly beneficial collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Although most adults infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) fully recover, a proportion have ongoing symptoms, or post-COVID conditions (PCC), after infection. The objective of this analysis was to estimate the number of United States (US) adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021. METHODS: We modeled the prevalence of PCC using reported infections occurring from 1 February 2020 to 30 September 2021, and population-based, household survey data on new activity-limiting symptoms ≥1 month following SARS-CoV-2 infection. From these data sources, we estimated the number and proportion of US adults with activity-limiting PCC on 1 November 2021 as 95% uncertainty intervals, stratified by sex and age. Sensitivity analyses adjusted for underascertainment of infections and uncertainty about symptom duration. RESULTS: On 1 November 2021, at least 3.0-5.0 million US adults, or 1.2%-1.9% of the US adult population, were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC of ≥1 month's duration. Population prevalence was higher in females (1.4%-2.2%) than males. The estimated prevalence after adjusting for underascertainment of infections was 1.7%-3.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Millions of US adults were estimated to have activity-limiting PCC. These estimates can support future efforts to address the impact of PCC on the US population.

Previous reports of COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and death rates by vaccination status() indicate that vaccine protection against infection, as well as serious COVID-19 illness for some groups, declined with the emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and waning of vaccine-induced immunity (1-4). During August-November 2021, CDC recommended() additional primary COVID-19 vaccine doses among immunocompromised persons and booster doses among persons aged 18 years (5). The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant emerged in the United States during December 2021 (6) and by December 25 accounted for 72% of sequenced lineages (7). To assess the impact of full vaccination with additional and booster doses (booster doses),() case and death rates and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated among unvaccinated and fully vaccinated adults by receipt of booster doses during pre-Delta (April-May 2021), Delta emergence (June 2021), Delta predominance (July-November 2021), and Omicron emergence (December 2021) periods in the United States. During 2021, averaged weekly, age-standardized case IRRs among unvaccinated persons compared with fully vaccinated persons decreased from 13.9 pre-Delta to 8.7 as Delta emerged, and to 5.1 during the period of Delta predominance. During October-November, unvaccinated persons had 13.9 and 53.2 times the risks for infection and COVID-19-associated death, respectively, compared with fully vaccinated persons who received booster doses, and 4.0 and 12.7 times the risks compared with fully vaccinated persons without booster doses. When the Omicron variant emerged during December 2021, case IRRs decreased to 4.9 for fully vaccinated persons with booster doses and 2.8 for those without booster doses, relative to October-November 2021. The highest impact of booster doses against infection and death compared with full vaccination without booster doses was recorded among persons aged 50-64 and 65 years. Eligible persons should stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations.

The U.S. COVID-19 vaccination program launched on December 14, 2020. The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended prioritizing COVID-19 vaccination for specific groups of the U.S. population who were at highest risk for COVID-19 hospitalization and death, including adults aged ≥75 years*; implementation varied by state, and eligibility was gradually expanded to persons aged ≥65 years beginning in January 2021. By April 19, 2021, eligibility was expanded to all adults aged ≥18 years nationwide.(†) To assess patterns of COVID-19 vaccination coverage among U.S. adults, CDC analyzed data submitted on vaccinations administered during December 14, 2020-May 22, 2021, by age, sex, and community-level characteristics. By May 22, 2021, 57.0% of persons aged ≥18 years had received ≥1 COVID-19 vaccine dose; coverage was highest among persons aged ≥65 years (80.0%) and lowest among persons aged 18-29 years (38.3%). During the week beginning February 7, 2021, vaccination initiation among adults aged ≥65 years peaked at 8.2%, whereas weekly initiation among other age groups peaked later and at lower levels. During April 19-May 22, 2021, the period following expanded eligibility to all adults, weekly initiation remained <4.0% and decreased for all age groups, including persons aged 18-29 years (3.6% to 1.9%) and 30-49 years (3.5% to 1.7%); based on the current rate of weekly initiation (as of May 22), younger persons will not reach the same levels of coverage as older persons by the end of August. Across all age groups, coverage (≥1 dose) was lower among men compared with women, except among adults aged ≥65 years, and lower among persons living in counties that were less urban, had higher social vulnerabilities, or had higher percentages of social determinants of poor health. Continued efforts to improve vaccination confidence and alleviate barriers to vaccination initiation, especially among adults aged 18-49 years, could improve vaccination coverage.

Disparities in vaccination coverage by social vulnerability, defined as social and structural factors associated with adverse health outcomes, were noted during the first 2.5 months of the U.S. COVID-19 vaccination campaign, which began during mid-December 2020 (1). As vaccine eligibility and availability continue to expand, assuring equitable coverage for disproportionately affected communities remains a priority. CDC examined COVID-19 vaccine administration and 2018 CDC social vulnerability index (SVI) data to ascertain whether inequities in COVID-19 vaccination coverage with respect to county-level SVI have persisted, overall and by urbanicity. Vaccination coverage was defined as the number of persons aged ≥18 years (adults) who had received ≥1 dose of any Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-authorized COVID-19 vaccine divided by the total adult population in a specified SVI category.(†) SVI was examined overall and by its four themes (socioeconomic status, household composition and disability, racial/ethnic minority status and language, and housing type and transportation). Counties were categorized into SVI quartiles, in which quartile 1 (Q1) represented the lowest level of vulnerability and quartile 4 (Q4), the highest. Trends in vaccination coverage were assessed by SVI quartile and urbanicity, which was categorized as large central metropolitan, large fringe metropolitan (areas surrounding large cities, e.g., suburban), medium and small metropolitan, and nonmetropolitan counties.(§) During December 14, 2020-May 1, 2021, disparities in vaccination coverage by SVI increased, especially in large fringe metropolitan (e.g., suburban) and nonmetropolitan counties. By May 1, 2021, vaccination coverage was lower among adults living in counties with the highest overall SVI; differences were most pronounced in large fringe metropolitan (Q4 coverage = 45.0% versus Q1 coverage = 61.7%) and nonmetropolitan (Q4 = 40.6% versus Q1 = 52.9%) counties. Vaccination coverage disparities were largest for two SVI themes: socioeconomic status (Q4 = 44.3% versus Q1 = 61.0%) and household composition and disability (Q4 = 42.0% versus Q1 = 60.1%). Outreach efforts, including expanding public health messaging tailored to local populations and increasing vaccination access, could help increase vaccination coverage in high-SVI counties.

BACKGROUND: Black and Hispanic men have the highest rates of HIV diagnoses. To decrease the number of U.S. men who are unaware of their HIV status, they should be tested at least once. Our objective was to estimate the increases needed in HIV testing rates at ambulatory healthcare visits to achieve universal coverage. METHODS: We analyzed nationally representative medical record abstraction data to estimate the number of visits per person to physician offices, emergency departments, and outpatient clinics among men aged 18-39 years during 2009-2016, and the percentage of visits with an HIV test. We calculated the increase in the percentage of visits with an HIV test needed to achieve universal testing coverage of men by age 39 years. RESULTS: Men had a mean of 75.3 million ambulatory visits per year and 1.67 visits per person. An HIV test was performed at 0.9% of the ambulatory visits made by white men, 2.5% by black men, and 2.4% by Hispanic men. A 3-fold increase in the percentage of visits with an HIV test would result in coverage of 46.2% of white, 100% of black, and 100% of Hispanic men; an 11-fold increase would be needed to result in coverage of 100% of white men. CONCLUSIONS: HIV testing rates of men at ambulatory healthcare visits were too low to provide HIV testing coverage of all men by aged 39 years. A 3-fold increase in the percentage of visits with an HIV test would result in universal testing coverage of black and Hispanic men by age 39 years.

In Thailand, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is recommended for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention among at-risk men who have sex with men (MSM). We modeled the impact of PrEP and condom use as independent and combined interventions on the estimated number of HIV infections among a hypothetical population of 10,000 MSM in Bangkok, Thailand. Our model demonstrated a 92% (95% confidence interval 89.7, 94.2) reduction in HIV infections among Thai MSM who took daily PrEP and self-reported using condoms correctly and consistently (100% condom use). Increased use of PrEP and condoms likely would have a substantial impact on the HIV epidemic in Thailand.

Statistical literacy and knowledge is needed to read and understand the public health literature. The purpose of this study was to quantify basic and advanced statistical methods used in public health research. We randomly sampled 216 published articles from seven top tier general public health journals. Studies were reviewed by two readers and a standardized data collection form completed for each article. Data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and frequency distributions. Results were summarized for statistical methods used in the literature, including descriptive and inferential statistics, modeling, advanced statistical techniques, and statistical software used. Approximately 81.9% of articles reported an observational study design and 93.1% of articles were substantively focused. Descriptive statistics in table or graphical form were reported in more than 95% of the articles, and statistical inference reported in more than 76% of the studies reviewed. These results reveal the types of statistical methods currently used in the public health literature. Although this study did not obtain information on what should be taught, information on statistical methods being used is useful for curriculum development in graduate health sciences education, as well as making informed decisions about continuing education for public health professionals.

BACKGROUND: Patients with prior positive tuberculin skin test (TST) results may benefit from prophylaxis after repeat exposure to infectious tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To evaluate factors associated with active TB disease among persons with prior positive TST results named as contacts of persons with infectious TB. DESIGN: Population-based retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2,933 contacts with prior positive TST results recently exposed to infectious TB identified in New York City's TB registry during the period from January 1, 1997 through December 31, 2003. MAIN MEASUREMENTS: Contacts developing active TB disease ≤ 4 years after exposure were identified and compared with those who did not, using Poisson regression analysis. Genotyping was performed on selected Mycobacterium tuberculosis-positive isolates. KEY RESULTS: Among contacts with prior positive TST results, 39 (1.3 %) developed active TB disease ≤ 4 years after exposure (≤2 years: 34). Risk factors for contacts that were independently associated with TB were age < 5 years (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 19.48; 95 % confidence interval [CI] = 7.15-53.09), household exposure (aPR = 2.60;CI = 1.30-5.21), exposure to infectious patients (i.e., cavities on chest radiograph, acid-fast bacilli on sputum smear; aPR = 1.9 3;CI = 1.01-3.71), and exposure to a U.S.-born index patient (aPR = 4.04; CI = 1.95-8.38). Receipt of more than1 month of treatment for latent TB infection following the current contact investigation was found to be protective (aPR = 0.27; CI = 0.08-0.93). Genotype results were concordant with the index patients among 14 of 15 contacts who developed active TB disease and had genotyping results available. CONCLUSIONS: Concordant genotype results and a high proportion of contacts developing active TB disease within 2 years of exposure indicate that those with prior positive TST results likely developed active TB disease from recent rather than remote infection. Healthcare providers should consider prophylaxis for contacts with prior TB infection, especially young children and close contacts of TB patients (e.g., those with household exposure).

During cluster investigation, index patients name social contacts that are not sex or drug-sharing partners. The likelihood of identifying new HIV infections among social contacts is unknown. We hypothesized greater odds of identifying new infections among social contacts identified by men who report sex with men (MSM). We reviewed North Carolina HIV diagnoses during 2002-2005 and used logistic regression to compare testing results among social contacts of MSM, men who report sex with women only (MSW) and women. HIV was newly diagnosed among 54/601 (9.0 %) social contacts tested named by MSM, 16/522 (3.1 %) named by MSW, and 23/639 (3.6 %) named by women. Compared with those named by MSW, odds of new HIV diagnosis were greater among MSM social contacts (adjusted odds ratio: 2.5; 95 % confidence interval: 1.3-4.7). Testing social contacts identified previously undiagnosed HIV infections and could provide an opportunity to interrupt transmission.

BACKGROUND: Colorado tick fever (CTF) is an underreported tick-borne viral disease occurring in the western United States. CTF illness includes fever, headache, and severe myalgia lasting for weeks. Wyoming has one of the highest CTF incidence rates with approximately 30% of infected persons reporting tick exposure in a Wyoming National Park or Forest before symptom onset. We assessed CTF virus infections among humans and Dermacentor andersoni ticks in Grand Teton National Park (GRTE) and Bridger-Teton National Forest (BTNF). METHODS: In June of 2010, 526 eligible employees were approached to participate in a baseline and 3-month follow-up serosurvey and risk behavior survey. Seropositivity was defined as antibody titers against CTF virus ≥10, as measured by the plaque reduction neutralization test. Ticks were collected at 27 sites within GRTE/BTNF and tested by RT-PCR for the CTF virus. RESULTS: A total of 126 (24%) employees participated in the baseline and follow-up study visits. Three (2%) employees were seropositive for CTF virus infection at baseline. During the study, 47 (37%) participants found unattached ticks on themselves, and 12 (10%) found attached ticks; however, no participants seroconverted against CTF virus. Walking through sagebrush (p=0.04) and spending time at ≥7000 feet elevation (p<0.01) were significantly associated with tick exposure. Ninety-nine percent (174/176) of ticks were D. andersoni, and all were found at ≥7000 feet elevation in sagebrush areas; 37 (21%) ticks tested positive for CTF virus and were found at 10 (38%) of 26 sites sampled. CONCLUSIONS: Although no GRTE or BTNF employees were infected with CTF virus during the study period, high rates of infected ticks were identified in areas with sagebrush at ≥7000 feet. CTF education and personal protection measures against tick exposure should be targeted to visitors and employees traveling to the high-risk environs identified in this study.

OBJECTIVE: During 2009-2011, Pike County, Kentucky, experienced a series of severe weather events that resulted in property damage, insufficient potable water, and need for temporary shelters. A Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) survey was implemented for future planning. CASPER assesses household health status, preparedness level, and anticipated demand for shelters. METHODS: We used a 2-stage cluster sampling design to randomly select 210 representative households for in-person interviews. We estimated the proportion of households with children aged 2 years or younger; adults aged 65 years or older; and residents with chronic health conditions, visual impairments, physical limitations, and supplemental oxygen requirements. RESULTS: Of all households surveyed, 8% included children aged 2 years or younger, and 27% included adults aged 65 years or older. The most common chronic health conditions were heart disease (51%), diabetes (28%), lung disease (23%), and asthma (21%). Visual impairments were reported in 29% of households, physical limitations in 24%, and supplemental oxygen use in 12%. CONCLUSIONS: Pike County residents should be encouraged to maintain an adequate supply of medications and copies of their prescriptions. Emergency response plans should include transportation for persons with physical limitations; and shelter plans should include sufficient medically trained staff and adequate supplies of infant formula, pharmaceuticals, and supplemental oxygen.

OBJECTIVES:. We examined socioeconomic status (SES) disparities and the influence of state Immunization Action Plan-funded vaccination coordinators located in low-SES areas of Connecticut on childhood vaccination up-to-date (UTD) status at age 24 months. METHODS: We examined predictors of underimmunization among the 2006 birth cohort (n = 34 568) in the state's Immunization Information System, including individual demographic and SES data, census tract SES data, and residence in an area with a vaccination coordinator. We conducted multilevel logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 81% of children were UTD. Differences by race/ethnicity and census tract SES were typically under 5%. Not being UTD at age 7 months was the strongest predictor of underimmunization at age 24 months. Among children who were not UTD at age 7 months, only Medicaid enrollment (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.6; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.5, 0.7) and residence in an area with a vaccination coordinator (AOR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.6, 0.9) significantly decreased the odds of subsequent underimmunization. CONCLUSIONS: SES disparities associated with underimmunization at age 24 months were limited. Efforts focused on vaccinating infants born in low SES circumstances can minimize disparities.

In July 2011, a cluster of Yersinia enterocolitica infections was detected in southwestern Pennsylvania, USA. We investigated the outbreak's source and scope in order to prevent further transmission. Twenty-two persons were diagnosed with yersiniosis; 16 of whom reported consuming pasteurized dairy products from dairy A. Pasteurized milk and food samples were collected from this dairy. Y. enterocolitica was isolated from two products. Isolates from both food samples and available clinical isolates from nine dairy A consumers were indistinguishable by pulsed-field gel electrophoresis. Environmental and microbiological investigations were performed at dairy A and pasteurization deficiencies were noted. Because consumption of pasteurized milk is common and outbreaks have the potential to become large, public health interventions such as consumer advisories or closure of the dairy must be implemented quickly to prevent additional cases if epidemiological or laboratory evidence implicates pasteurized milk as the outbreak source.

BACKGROUND: Asthma was the most common chronic condition among adults hospitalized for 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1). OBJECTIVES: We describe the epidemiology and factors for severe outcomes among adults with asthma who were hospitalized or died from pH1N1 in California. METHODS: We reviewed California Department of Public Health pH1N1 reports from April 23, 2009 through August 11, 2009. Reports were included if the patient had pH1N1 (or non-subtypeable influenza A) infection by polymerase chain reaction in an adult (age ≥ 18 years) with asthma who was hospitalized or died. Patients were classified as having intermittent or persistent asthma on the basis of regular medications. Risk factors associated with severe outcomes (i.e., intensive care unit admission or death) vs those with less severe outcomes were assessed by chi-square tests and logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 744 identified patients, 170 (23%) had asthma (61% intermittent, 39% persistent). 132 of 142 (93%) patients had other chronic medical conditions. Severe outcomes occurred in 54 of 162 (33%), more commonly among those with renal disease (64% versus 31%; P = 0.04) and chest radiograph infiltrates (54% versus 11%; P < 0.01), less commonly among those who received antivirals within 48 hours of symptom onset (22% versus 44%; P = 0.02). In multivariable analysis, chest radiograph infiltrates were associated with severe outcomes (adjusted odds ratio 9.38, 95% confidence interval 3.05-28.90). CONCLUSIONS: One third of adults with asthma who died or were hospitalized with pH1N1 experienced severe outcomes. Early empiric antiviral therapy should be encouraged, especially among asthma patients.

CONTEXT: To target school-aged children (SAC), who were identified as a priority for pandemic 2009 Influenza A (pH1N1) vaccination, Maricopa County (MC) initiated school-based influenza vaccination in 69% of its 706 schools during the 2009-2010 influenza season. OBJECTIVE: To determine factors associated with receipt of pH1N1 monovalent and 2009-2010 seasonal influenza vaccination among SAC and evaluate the association of school-based vaccination with vaccination status of SAC. DESIGN: Random-digit dialing was used to survey 600 MC households with willing adult participants and children grades K-12. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with pH1N1 and seasonal vaccine receipt. SETTING: Arizona. PARTICIPANTS: Household adults with children grades K-12. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Characteristics of children, parents, and households were obtained. RESULTS: Among 909 SAC, 402 (44%) received pH1N1 and 436 (48%) received seasonal vaccination. Factors associated with pH1N1 vaccination included vaccine availability at school (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.0-2.7), high-risk medical condition in child (AOR: 2.4; 95% CI: 1.4-4.0), elementary versus high school attendance (AOR: 1.6; 95% CI: 1.0-2.7), and seasonal influenza vaccination (AOR: 10.0; 95% CI: 6.4-15.6). Factors associated with seasonal vaccination included Hispanic ethnicity (AOR: 2.2; 95% CI: 1.1-4.2), health insurance coverage (AOR: 4.8; 95% CI: 1.7-13.7), elementary versus high school attendance (AOR: 1.5; 95% CI: 1.0-2.5), and pH1N1 vaccination (AOR: 10.5; 95% CI: 6.7-16.6). CONCLUSIONS: Availability of pH1N1 vaccine at school was independently associated with pH1N1 vaccination of MC school-aged children. School-based influenza vaccination campaigns should be considered to increase vaccination among this population.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral neuropathy is a serious complication of diabetes and several conditions that may lead to loss of lower extremity function and even amputations. Since their introduction, the use of statin drugs has increased dramatically. Recent reports suggest a role for statins in the development of peripheral neuropathy. Our aims in this study were to assess the association between statin use and peripheral neuropathy and to determine whether this association varied by diabetes status. METHOD: We used the lower extremity examination supplement in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). RESULTS: Overall prevalence of statin use was 15%, and the prevalence of peripheral neuropathy was 14.9%. The prevalence of peripheral neuropathy was significantly higher among those who used statins compared to those who did not (23.5% vs. 13.5%; p < 0.01). In multivariate logistic regression, statin use (Adj. OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6, Wald p-value 0.04) was significantly associated with peripheral neuropathy, controlling for diabetes status, age, gender, race, height, weight, blood lead levels, poverty, glycohemoglobin, use of vitamin B, alcohol abuse, hypertension, and non-HDL cholesterol. Diabetes status, age, gender, height, weight, blood lead levels, poverty, and glycohemoglobin were also significantly associated with peripheral neuropathy. We found no effect modification between statin use and diabetes status, race, gender, age, vitamin B12, blood lead levels, or alcohol abuse. CONCLUSIONS: In this cross-sectional study, we found a modest association between peripheral neuropathy and statin use. Prospective studies are required to determine the causal direction. (Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to estimate 2009 pandemic influenza A (pH1N1) vaccination coverage among pregnant women and identify associated factors. METHODS: We distributed a multimodal survey to 5341 women who gave birth between November 1, 2009, and January 31, 2010, identified by hospitals in King County, Washington State, with maternity services (n = 11). RESULTS: Of 4205 respondents, 3233 (76.9%) reported that they had received pH1N1 vaccine during pregnancy or within 2 weeks after delivery. Women whose prenatal care provider recommended vaccine had a higher vaccination prevalence than women whose provider did not (81.5% vs 29.6%; adjusted prevalence ratio = 2.1; 95% confidence interval = 1.72, 2.58). Vaccination prevalence was lower among women who had received prenatal care from a midwife only compared with women who had received care from other providers (62.9% vs 78.8%; adjusted prevalence ratio = 0.89; 95% confidence interval = 0.83, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS: Among pregnant women in King County, pH1N1 vaccination coverage was high. To improve coverage during nonpandemic seasons, influenza vaccine should be recommended routinely by prenatal care providers and vaccination provided where prenatal care is received. Barriers to midwives providing vaccination recommendations to patients should be explored.

OBJECTIVES: Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality during natural disasters. On January 26-27, 2009, a severe ice storm occurred in Kentucky, causing widespread, extended power outages and disrupting transportation and communications. After the storm, CO poisonings were reported throughout the state. The objectives of this investigation were to determine the extent of the problem, identify sources of CO poisoning, characterize cases, make recommendations to reduce morbidity and mortality, and develop prevention strategies. METHODS: We obtained data from the Kentucky Regional Poison Center (KRPC), hyperbaric oxygen treatment (HBOT) facilities, and coroners. Additionally, the Kentucky Department for Public Health provided statewide emergency department (ED) and hospitalization data. RESULTS: During the two weeks after the storm, KRPC identified 144 cases of CO poisoning; exposure sources included kerosene heaters, generators, and propane heaters. Hospitals reported 202 ED visits and 26 admissions. Twenty-eight people received HBOT. Ten deaths were attributed to CO poisoning, eight of which were related to inappropriate generator location. Higher rates of CO poisoning were reported in areas with the most ice accumulation. CONCLUSIONS: Although CO poisonings are preventable, they continue to occur in postdisaster situations. Recommendations include encouraging use of CO alarms, exploring use of engineering controls on generators to decrease CO exposure, providing specific information regarding safe use and placement of CO-producing devices, and using multiple communication methods to reach people without electricity.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends that health care personnel (HCP) infected with pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 virus not work until 24 hours after fever subsides without the use of antipyretics. During an influenza outbreak, we examined the association between viral shedding and fever among infected HCP. Participants recorded temperatures daily and provided nasal wash specimens for 2 weeks after symptom onset. Specimens were tested by using PCR and culture. When they met CDC criteria for returning to work, 12 of 16 HCP (75%) (95% confidence interval 48%-93%) had virus detected by PCR, and 9 (56%) (95% confidence interval 30%-80%) had virus detected by culture. Fever was not associated with shedding duration (p = 0.65). HCP might shed virus even when meeting CDC exclusion guidelines. Further research is needed to clarify the association between viral shedding, symptoms, and infectiousness.