COVID-19 vaccination provides additional protection against severe COVID-19-associated illness and death. Since September 2023, 2023-2024 Formula monovalent XBB.1-strain COVID-19 vaccines have been recommended for use in the United States for all persons aged ≥6 months. However, SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, and since winter 2023-2024, Omicron JN.1 lineage strains of SARS-CoV-2, including the JN.1 strain and the KP.2 strain, have been widely circulating in the United States. Further, COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness is known to wane. On June 27, 2024, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccination with a Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved or authorized vaccine for all persons aged ≥6 months. On August 22, 2024, FDA approved the 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech (based on the KP.2 strain) for use in persons aged ≥12 years and authorized these vaccines for use in children aged 6 months-11 years under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). On August 30, 2024, FDA authorized 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine by Novavax (based on the JN.1 strain) for use in persons aged ≥12 years under EUA. ACIP will continue to evaluate new evidence as it becomes available and will update recommendations as needed.

INTRODUCTION: Envenomation after a North American rattlesnake (Crotalus spp. and Sistrusus spp.) bite is associated with substantial morbidity. Arizona reports the highest number of rattlesnake envenomations annually in the United States. We evaluated the performance of poison and drug information centers for snakebite surveillance, compared with the hospital and emergency department discharge database. We used both datasets to improve the characterization of epidemiology, healthcare costs, and clinical effects of snakebite envenomations in Arizona. METHODS: We identified patients with a snakebite during 2017-2021 using Arizona hospital and emergency department discharge data and snakebite consults with two regional Arizona poison centers. Patients were matched using name and birthdate. The performance of poison center data for snakebite surveillance was evaluated using the percentage of snakebite patients in hospital and emergency department discharge data that consulted with poison centers. Patient demographics, healthcare characteristics, clinical effects, and context of snakebite events were described using both datasets. RESULTS: In total, 1,288 patients with a snakebite were identified using the Arizona hospital and emergency department discharge data, which resulted in 953 (74%) consultations with poison centers. The median age of patients was 48 years (IQR 28-62 years), and they were predominantly male (66%), White (90%), and non-Hispanic (84%). The median billed charges were US$ 84,880 (IQR US$ 13,286-US$ 168,043); the median duration of a healthcare stay was 34 h (IQR 13-48 h), and 29% of patients were transferred between healthcare facilities. Among 953 consulted poison center calls for a snakebite, a median of 14 vials of antivenom was administered per patient; 375 (60%) bites occurred near the home, and 345 (43%) patients were bitten on a lower extremity. One death was identified. DISCUSSION: Snakebites in Arizona can cause severe morbidity and require extensive healthcare resources for treatment. Poison centers are valuable for monitoring venomous snakebites in Arizona. CONCLUSIONS: Using hospital and emergency department discharge data with poison center records can improve public health surveillance data regarding snakebite epidemiology and human-snake interaction information and be used to tailor interventions to increase awareness of snake encounters and prevent snakebites.

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2(nd) most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5(th) most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

INTRODUCTION: Myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) is a chronic illness characterized by marked functional limitations and fatigue. Electronic health records can be used to estimate incidence of ME/CFS but may have limitations. METHODS: The authors used International Classification of Diseases (ICD) diagnosis codes to identify all presumptive cases of ME/CFS among 9- to 39-year-olds from 2006 to 2017. The authors randomly selected 200 cases for medical record review to classify cases as confirmed, probable, or possible, based on which and how many current clinical criteria they met, and to further characterize their illness. The authors calculated crude annual rates of ME/CFS coding stratified by age and sex using only those ICD codes that had identified confirmed, probable, or possible ME/CFS cases in the medical record review. RESULTS: The authors identified 522 individuals with presumptive ME/CFS based on having ≥ 1 ICD codes for ME/CFS in their electronic medical record. Of the 200 cases selected, records were available and reviewed for 188. Thirty (15%) were confirmed or probable ME/CFS cases, 39 (19%) were possible cases, 119 (60%) were not cases, and 12 (6%) had no medical record available. Confirmed/probable cases commonly had chronic pain (80%) or anxiety/depression (70%), and only 13 (43%) had completed a sleep study. Overall, 37 per 100,000 had ICD codes that identified confirmed, probable, or possible ME/CFS. Rates increased between 2006 and 2017, with the largest absolute increase among those 30-39 years old. CONCLUSIONS: Using ICD diagnosis codes alone inaccurately estimates ME/CFS incidence.

OBJECTIVES: The Multi-State EHR-Based Network for Disease Surveillance (MENDS) is a population-based chronic disease surveillance distributed data network that uses institution-specific extraction-transformation-load (ETL) routines. MENDS-on-FHIR examined using Health Language Seven's Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (HL7(®) FHIR(®)) and US Core Implementation Guide (US Core IG) compliant resources derived from the Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM) to create a standards-based ETL pipeline. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The input data source was a research data warehouse containing clinical and administrative data in OMOP CDM Version 5.3 format. OMOP-to-FHIR transformations, using a unique JavaScript Object Notation (JSON)-to-JSON transformation language called Whistle, created FHIR R4 V4.0.1/US Core IG V4.0.0 conformant resources that were stored in a local FHIR server. A REST-based Bulk FHIR $export request extracted FHIR resources to populate a local MENDS database. RESULTS: Eleven OMOP tables were used to create 10 FHIR/US Core compliant resource types. A total of 1.13 trillion resources were extracted and inserted into the MENDS repository. A very low rate of non-compliant resources was observed. DISCUSSION: OMOP-to-FHIR transformation results passed validation with less than a 1% non-compliance rate. These standards-compliant FHIR resources provided standardized data elements required by the MENDS surveillance use case. The Bulk FHIR application programming interface (API) enabled population-level data exchange using interoperable FHIR resources. The OMOP-to-FHIR transformation pipeline creates a FHIR interface for accessing OMOP data. CONCLUSION: MENDS-on-FHIR successfully replaced custom ETL with standards-based interoperable FHIR resources using Bulk FHIR. The OMOP-to-FHIR transformations provide an alternative mechanism for sharing OMOP data.

COVID-19 remains an important public health threat, despite overall decreases in COVID-19-related severe disease since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19-associated hospitalization rates remain higher among adults aged ≥65 years relative to rates in younger adults, adolescents, and children; during October 2023-January 2024, 67% of all COVID-19-associated hospitalizations were among persons aged ≥65 years. On September 12, 2023, CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended updated (2023-2024 Formula) COVID-19 vaccination with a monovalent XBB.1.5-derived vaccine for all persons aged ≥6 months to protect against severe COVID-19-associated illness and death. Because SARS-CoV-2 continues to circulate throughout the year, and because of the increased risk for COVID-19-related severe illness in persons aged ≥65 years, the protection afforded by updated vaccines against JN.1 and other currently circulating variants, and the expected waning of vaccine-conferred protection against disease, on February 28, 2024, ACIP recommended all persons aged ≥65 years receive 1 additional dose of the updated (2023-2024 Formula) COVID-19 vaccine. Implementation of these recommendations is expected to enhance immunity that might have waned and decrease the risk for severe COVID-19-associated outcomes, including death, among persons aged ≥65 years.

With the availability of authorized COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, vaccination became an effective tool to reduce COVID-19-associated morbidity and mortality. Initially, the World Health Organization (WHO) set an ambitious target to vaccinate 70% of the global population by mid-2022. However, in July 2022, WHO recommended that all countries, including those in the African Region, prioritize COVID-19 vaccination of high-risk groups, including older adults and health care workers, to have the greatest impact on morbidity and mortality. As of December 31, 2023, approximately 860 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine had been delivered to countries in the African Region, and 646 million doses had been administered. Cumulatively, 38% of the African Region's population had received ≥1 dose, 32% had completed a primary series, and 21% had received ≥1 booster dose. Cumulative total population coverage with ≥1 dose ranged by country from 0.3% to 89%. Coverage with the primary series among older age groups was 52% (range among countries = 15%-96%); primary series coverage among health care workers was 48% (range = 13%-99%). Although the COVID-19 public health emergency of international concern was declared over in May 2023, current WHO recommendations reinforce the need to vaccinate priority populations at highest risk for severe COVID-19 disease and death and build more sustainable programs by integrating COVID-19 vaccination into primary health care, strengthening immunization across the life course, and improving pandemic preparedness.

The impact of community-wide teen pregnancy prevention initiatives (CWIs) on local U.S. birth rates among adolescents aged 15 to 19 years was examined using synthetic control methodology within a quasi-experimental design. CWIs were implemented in 10 U.S. communities from 2010 to 2015. Each initiative implemented evidence-based teen pregnancy prevention interventions at local organizations and enhanced best practices in adolescent reproductive health care at local health centers, while engaging diverse community sectors. The synthetic control method was used to estimate the impact of each CWI on overall and race- and ethnicity-specific teen births relative to rates in synthetic control communities. Additionally, we estimated the overall effect of CWIs across communities by pooling results from the 10 synthetic control case studies using the mean percentile rank. Pooled data across all 10 communities indicated an estimated average of 6.6 fewer births per 1000 teens per year overall during the initiative relative to each community's synthetic control (p = .001). By race and ethnicity, there were an estimated average of 6.4 fewer births per 1000 teens per year among Black teens (p = .03), 10.7 fewer births among Hispanic teens (p = .03), and 4.2 fewer births (p = .10) among White teens. Results from individual communities indicated an intervention effect on overall and/or race/ethnicity-specific teen birth rates in five communities. This study demonstrates the value of synthetic control methods in evaluating community-level outcomes of programmatic efforts. Findings indicate the CWIs had a positive impact on teen birth rates and have the potential to address racial and ethnic disparities in those rates.

Clinical severity scores facilitate comparisons to understand risk factors for severe illness. For the 2022 multinational monkeypox clade IIb virus outbreak, we developed a 7-item Mpox Severity Scoring System (MPOX-SSS) with initial variables refined by data availability and parameter correlation. Application of MPOX-SSS to the first 200 patients diagnosed with mpox revealed higher scores in those treated with tecovirimat, presenting >3 days after symptom onset, and with CD4 counts <200 cells/mm3. For individuals evaluated repeatedly, serial scores were concordant with clinical observations. The pilot MPOX-SSS demonstrated good discrimination, distinguished change over time, and identified higher scores in expected groups.

BACKGROUND: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) can cause severe disease among infants and older adults. Less is known about RSV among pregnant women. METHODS: To analyze hospitalizations with laboratory-confirmed RSV among women aged 18 to 49 years, we used data from the RSV Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RSV-NET), a multistate population-based surveillance system. Specifically, we compared characteristics and outcomes among (1) pregnant and nonpregnant women during the pre-COVID-19 pandemic period (2014-2018), (2) pregnant women with respiratory symptoms during the prepandemic and pandemic periods (2021-2023), and (3) pregnant women with and without respiratory symptoms in the pandemic period. Using multivariable logistic regression, we examined whether pregnancy was a risk factor for severe outcomes (intensive care unit admission or in-hospital death) among women aged 18 to 49 years who were hospitalized with RSV prepandemic. RESULTS: Prepandemic, 387 women aged 18 to 49 years were hospitalized with RSV. Of those, 350 (90.4%) had respiratory symptoms, among whom 33 (9.4%) were pregnant. Five (15.2%) pregnant women and 74 (23.3%) nonpregnant women were admitted to the intensive care unit; no pregnant women and 5 (1.6%) nonpregnant women died. Among 279 hospitalized pregnant women, 41 were identified prepandemic and 238 during the pandemic: 80.5% and 35.3% had respiratory symptoms, respectively (P < .001). Pregnant women were more likely to deliver during their RSV-associated hospitalization during the pandemic vs the prepandemic period (73.1% vs 43.9%, P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Few pregnant women had severe RSV disease, and pregnancy was not a risk factor for a severe outcome. More asymptomatic pregnant women were identified during the pandemic, likely due to changes in testing practices for RSV.

INTRODUCTION: In 2012, the World Health Organization revised treatment guidelines for childhood pneumonia with lower chest wall indrawing (LCWI) but no 'danger signs', to recommend home-based treatment. We analysed data from children hospitalized with LCWI pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) study to identify sub-groups with high odds of mortality, who might continue to benefit from hospital management but may not be admitted by staff implementing the 2012 guidelines. We compare the proportion of deaths identified using the criteria in the 2012 guidelines, and the proportion of deaths identified using an alternative set of criteria from our model. METHODS: PERCH enrolled a cohort of 2189 HIV-negative children aged 2-59 months who were admitted to hospital with LCWI pneumonia (without obvious cyanosis, inability to feed, vomiting, convulsions, lethargy or head nodding) between 2011-2014 in Kenya, Zambia, South Africa, Mali, The Gambia, Bangladesh, and Thailand. We analysed risk factors for mortality among these cases using predictive logistic regression. Malnutrition was defined as mid-upper-arm circumference <125mm or weight-for-age z-score <-2. RESULTS: Among 2189 cases, 76 (3·6%) died. Mortality was associated with oxygen saturation <92% (aOR 3·33, 1·99-5·99), HIV negative but exposed status (4·59, 1·81-11·7), moderate or severe malnutrition (6·85, 3·22-14·6) and younger age (infants compared to children 12-59 months old, OR 2·03, 95%CI 1·05-3·93). At least one of three risk factors: hypoxaemia, HIV exposure, or malnutrition identified 807 children in this population, 40% of LCWI pneumonia cases and identified 86% of the children who died in hospital (65/76). Risk factors identified using the 2012 WHO treatment guidelines identified 66% of the children who died in hospital (n = 50/76). CONCLUSIONS: Although it focuses on treatment failure in hospital, this study supports the proposal for better risk stratification of children with LCWI pneumonia. Those who have hypoxaemia, any malnutrition or those who were born to HIV positive mothers, experience poorer outcomes than other children with LCWI pneumonia. Consistent identification of these risk factors should be prioritised and children with at least one of these risk factors should not be managed in the community.

To end the largest known outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa and to prevent new transmissions, rapid epidemiological tracing of cases and contacts was required. The ability to quickly identify unknown sources and chains of transmission is key to ending the EVD epidemic and of even greater importance in the context of recent reports of Ebola virus (EBOV) persistence in survivors. Phylogenetic analysis of complete EBOV genomes can provide important information on the source of any new infection. A local deep sequencing facility was established at the Mateneh Ebola Treatment Centre in central Sierra Leone. The facility included all wetlab and computational resources to rapidly process EBOV diagnostic samples into full genome sequences. We produced 554 EBOV genomes from EVD cases across Sierra Leone. These genomes provided a detailed description of EBOV evolution and facilitated phylogenetic tracking of new EVD cases. Importantly, we show that linked genomic and epidemiological data can not only support contact tracing but also identify unconventional transmission chains involving body fluids, including semen. Rapid EBOV genome sequencing, when linked to epidemiological information and a comprehensive database of virus sequences across the outbreak, provided a powerful tool for public health epidemic control efforts.

CONTEXT: Electronic health records (EHRs) are an emerging chronic disease surveillance data source and facilitating this data sharing is complex. PROGRAM: Using the experience of the Multi-State EHR-Based Network for Disease Surveillance (MENDS), this article describes implementation of a governance framework that aligns technical, statutory, and organizational requirements to facilitate EHR data sharing for chronic disease surveillance. IMPLEMENTATION: MENDS governance was cocreated with data contributors and health departments representing Texas, New Orleans, Louisiana, Chicago, Washington, and Indiana through engagement from 2020 to 2022. MENDS convened a governance body, executed data-sharing agreements, and developed a master governance document to codify policies and procedures. RESULTS: The MENDS governance committee meets regularly to develop policies and procedures on data use and access, timeliness and quality, validation, representativeness, analytics, security, small cell suppression, software implementation and maintenance, and privacy. Resultant policies are codified in a master governance document. DISCUSSION: The MENDS governance approach resulted in a transparent governance framework that cultivates trust across the network. MENDS's experience highlights the time and resources needed by EHR-based public health surveillance networks to establish effective governance.

BACKGROUND: There is evidence suggesting that COVID-19 vaccination may be associated with small, transitory effects on uterine bleeding, possibly including menstrual timing, flow, and duration, in some individuals. However, changes in health care seeking, diagnosis, and workup for abnormal uterine bleeding in the COVID-19 vaccine era are less clear. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on incident abnormal uterine bleeding diagnosis and diagnostic evaluation in a large integrated health system. STUDY DESIGN: Using segmented regression, we assessed whether the availability of COVID-19 vaccines was associated with changes in monthly, population-based rates of incident abnormal uterine bleeding diagnoses compared to the pre-pandemic period in health system members ages 16-44 years who were not menopausal. We also compared clinical and demographic characteristics of patients diagnosed with incident abnormal uterine bleeding between December 2020 through October 13, 2021 by vaccination status (never vaccinated, vaccinated in the 60 days prior to diagnosis, vaccinated more than 60 days prior to diagnosis) and conducted detailed chart review of patients diagnosed with abnormal uterine bleeding within 1-60 days of COVID-19 vaccination in the same time period. RESULTS: In monthly populations ranging from 79,000 to 85,000 female health system members, incidence of abnormal uterine bleeding diagnosis per 100,000 person-days ranged from 8.97 to 19.19. There was no significant change in the level or trend in the incidence of abnormal uterine bleeding diagnoses between the pre-pandemic (January 2019-January 2020) and post-COVID-19 vaccine (December 2020-December 2021) periods. A comparison of clinical characteristics of 2,717 abnormal uterine bleeding cases by vaccination status suggested that abnormal bleeding among recently vaccinated patients was similar or less severe than abnormal bleeding among patients who had never been vaccinated patients or those vaccinated more than 60 days prior. There were also significant differences in age and race of patients with incident abnormal uterine bleeding diagnoses by vaccination status: never vaccinated patients were the youngest and those vaccinated more than 60 days prior were the oldest; the proportion of patients who were Black/African American was highest among never vaccinated patients, and the proportion of Asian patients was higher among vaccinated patients. Chart review of 114 confirmed post-vaccination abnormal uterine bleeding cases diagnosed from December 2020 through October 13, 2021 found that the most common symptoms reported were changes in timing, duration, and volume of bleeding. Approximately one-third of cases received no diagnostic workup; 57% had no etiology for the bleeding documented in the electronic health record. In 12% of cases, the patient mentioned or asked about a possible link between their bleeding and their recent COVID-19 vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The availability of COVID-19 vaccination was not associated with a change in incidence of medically attended abnormal uterine bleeding in our population of over 79,000 female patients of reproductive age. Additionally, among 2,717 patients with abnormal uterine bleeding diagnoses in the period following COVID-19 vaccine availability, receipt of the vaccine was not associated with greater bleeding severity.

INTRODUCTION: Racial and ethnic minority groups and individuals with limited educational attainment experience a disproportionate burden of diabetes. Prediabetes represents a high-risk state for developing type 2 diabetes, but most adults with prediabetes are unaware of having the condition. Uncovering whether racial, ethnic, or educational disparities also occur in the prediabetes stage could help inform strategies to support health equity in preventing type 2 diabetes and its complications. We examined the prevalence of prediabetes and prediabetes awareness, with corresponding prevalence ratios according to race, ethnicity, and educational attainment. METHODS: This study was a pooled cross-sectional analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 2011 to March 2020. The final sample comprised 10,262 U.S. adults who self-reported being Asian, Black, Hispanic, or White. Prediabetes was defined using hemoglobin A1c and fasting plasma glucose values. Those with prediabetes were classified as "aware" or "unaware" based on survey responses. We calculated prevalence ratios (PR) to assess the relationship between race, ethnicity, and educational attainment with prediabetes and prediabetes awareness, controlling for sociodemographic, health and healthcare-related, and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: In fully adjusted logistic regression models, Asian, Black, and Hispanic adults had a statistically significant higher risk of prediabetes than White adults (PR:1.26 [1.18,1.35], PR:1.17 [1.08,1.25], and PR:1.10 [1.02,1.19], respectively). Adults completing less than high school and high school had a significantly higher risk of prediabetes compared to those with a college degree (PR:1.14 [1.02,1.26] and PR:1.12 [1.01,1.23], respectively). We also found that Black and Hispanic adults had higher rates of prediabetes awareness in the fully adjusted model than White adults (PR:1.27 [1.07,1.50] and PR:1.33 [1.02,1.72], respectively). The rates of prediabetes awareness were consistently lower among those with less than a high school education relative to individuals who completed college (fully-adjusted model PR:0.66 [0.47,0.92]). DISCUSSION: Disparities in prediabetes among racial and ethnic minority groups and adults with low educational attainment suggest challenges and opportunities for promoting health equity in high-risk groups and expanding awareness of prediabetes in the United States.

PURPOSE: Vaccination is associated with syncope in adolescents. However, incidence of vaccine-associated syncope and resulting injury, and how it compares to syncope incidence following other medical procedures, is not known. Here, we describe the incidence of syncope and syncope-related injury in adolescents following vaccination and routine venipuncture. METHODS: We identified all Kaiser Permanente Northwest members ages 9-18 years with a vaccination or routine venipuncture and a same-day International Classification of Diseases diagnosis of syncope from 2013 through 2019. All cases were chart reviewed to establish chronology of events (vaccination, venipuncture, syncope, and injury, as applicable) and to attribute cause to vaccination or venipuncture. Incidence rates for vaccine-associated and venipuncture-associated syncope were calculated overall, by sex and age group. Syncope events resulting in injury were assessed for each event type. RESULTS: Of 197,642 vaccination and 12,246 venipuncture events identified, 549 vaccination and 67 venipuncture events had same-day syncope codes. Chart validation confirmed 59/549 (10.7%) events as vaccine-associated syncope, for a rate of 2.99 per 10,000 vaccination events (95% confidence interval (CI): 2.27-3.85) and 20/67 (29.9%) events as venipuncture-associated syncope, for a rate of 16.33 per 10,000 venipuncture events (95% CI: 9.98-25.21). The incidence rate ratio of vaccine-associated to venipuncture-associated syncope events was 0.18 (95% CI: 0.11-0.31). The incidence of vaccine-associated syncope increased with each additional simultaneously administered vaccine, from 1.51 per 10,000 vaccination events (95% CI: 0.93-2.30) following a single vaccine to 9.94 per 10,000 vaccination events (95% CI: 6.43-14.67) following three or more vaccines. Syncope resulted in injury in about 15% of both vaccine and venipuncture events. DISCUSSION: Syncope occurs more commonly following venipuncture than vaccination. The number of simultaneously administered vaccines is a risk factor for postvaccination syncope in adolescents.

Poliovirus can cause poliomyelitis and lifelong paralysis. Although wild poliovirus types 2 and 3 have been eradicated, wild poliovirus type 1 and vaccine-derived polioviruses are still circulating in multiple countries worldwide. In 2022, a case of paralytic polio caused by vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 was identified in an unvaccinated young adult in New York. This case and subsequent detection of community transmission underscored the ongoing risk for importation of poliovirus into the United States and risk for poliomyelitis among unvaccinated persons. However, previous Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommendations for adult polio vaccination were limited to adults known to be at increased risk for exposure. During October 2022-June 2023, the ACIP Polio Vaccine Work Group reviewed data on poliovirus surveillance and epidemiology, safety and effectiveness of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), and other considerations outlined in the ACIP Evidence to Recommendations Framework. On June 21, 2023, ACIP voted to recommend that all U.S. adults aged ≥18 years who are known or suspected to be unvaccinated or incompletely vaccinated against polio complete a primary polio vaccination series with IPV. This report summarizes evidence considered for this recommendation and provides clinical guidance for the use of IPV in adults.

Although decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse professionals represent a key part of environmental public health and environmental engineering, an understanding of workforce challenges has remained elusive. Here we begin to address the critical need of understanding education, training, and outreach needs for decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse. We specifically engaged professionals working in health departments and other government agencies, industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations. We examined workforce characteristics related to education, training, and outreach. We found that 37% of decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse professionals plan to retire within 5 years, approximately 25% of these professionals do not hold any type of certification, and education and training are insufficient to meet current workforce demands. We further report 10 problem statements associated with timely education, training, and outreach needs, which represent important opportunities for improving the practice of decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse. Strategic education, training, and outreach activities are necessary to ensure workforce preparedness, to promote education with owners of onsite technologies, and to expand advanced training and translational research programs in decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse. Our findings can specifically support decision making aimed at sustaining and advancing the decentralized wastewater and distributed water reuse workforce.

Orthopoxviruses are complex, large-genome DNA viruses that have repeatedly confounded expectations in terms of the clinical illness they cause and their patterns of spread. Monkeypox virus (MPXV) was originally characterized during outbreaks among captive primates in the late 1950's. Human disease (mpox) has been observed since the 1970's and inter-human spread has largely been associated with non-sexual, close physical contact in endemic areas of west and central Africa. In May 2022, a focus of Clade IIb MPXV transmission was detected, spreading largely by sexual contact through international networks of gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men. Despite decades of preparedness for the potential biothreat risk posed by smallpox, the outbreak grew in both size and geographic scope, testing the strength of smallpox preparedness tools and public health science alike. In this article we consider what was known about mpox prior to the 2022 outbreak, what we have learned about mpox and Clade IIb virus during the outbreak, and what outbreak response actions and continued research are needed to ensure the global public health community is equipped to detect and halt the further spread of this disease threat. We focus on how epidemiologic characterization and investigation together with laboratory studies have advanced our understanding of the transmission and pathogenesis of mpox, and describe what work remains to be done to optimize diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. Persistent health inequities challenge our capacity to fully eliminate circulation of the 2022 outbreak strain of MPXV currently in the United States.

In this review, we discuss the history and epidemiology of mpox, prevention strategies, clinical characteristics and management, severity of mpox among persons with advanced HIV, and areas for future research relevant to persons with HIV.

BACKGROUND: There is a growing literature base regarding menstrual changes following COVID-19 vaccination among premenopausal people. However, relatively little is known about uterine bleeding in postmenopausal people following COVID-19 vaccination. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine trends in incident postmenopausal bleeding diagnoses over time before and after COVID-19 vaccine introduction, and to describe cases of new-onset postmenopausal bleeding after COVID-19 vaccination. STUDY DESIGN: For postmenopausal bleeding incidence calculations, monthly population-level cohorts consisted of female Kaiser Permanente Northwest members aged ≥45 years. Those diagnosed with incident postmenopausal bleeding in the electronic medical record were included in monthly numerators. Members with preexisting postmenopausal bleeding or abnormal uterine bleeding, or who were at increased risk of bleeding due to other health conditions, were excluded from monthly calculations. We used segmented regression analysis to estimate changes in the incidence of postmenopausal bleeding diagnoses from 2018 through 2021 in Kaiser Permanente Northwest members meeting the inclusion criteria, stratified by COVID-19 vaccination status in 2021. In addition, we identified all members with ≥1 COVID-19 vaccination between December 14, 2020 and August 14, 2021, who had an incident postmenopausal bleeding diagnosis within 60 days of vaccination. COVID-19 vaccination, diagnostic procedures, and presumed bleeding etiology were assessed through chart review and described. A temporal scan statistic was run on all cases without clear bleeding etiology. RESULTS: In a population of 75,530 to 82,693 individuals per month, there was no statistically significant difference in the rate of incident postmenopausal bleeding diagnoses before and after COVID-19 vaccine introduction (P=.59). A total of 104 individuals had incident postmenopausal bleeding diagnosed within 60 days following COVID-19 vaccination; 76% of cases (79/104) were confirmed as postvaccination postmenopausal bleeding after chart review. Median time from vaccination to bleeding onset was 21 days (range: 2-54 days). Among the 56 postmenopausal bleeding cases with a provider-attributed etiology, the common causes of bleeding were uterine or cervical lesions (50% [28/56]), hormone replacement therapy (13% [7/56]), and proliferative endometrium (13% [7/56]). Among the 23 cases without a clear etiology, there was no statistically significant clustering of postmenopausal bleeding onset following vaccination. CONCLUSION: Within this integrated health system, introduction of COVID-19 vaccines was not associated with an increase in incident postmenopausal bleeding diagnoses. Diagnosis of postmenopausal bleeding in the 60 days following receipt of a COVID-19 vaccination was rare.

COVID-19 vaccines protect against severe COVID-19-associated outcomes, including hospitalization and death. As SARS-CoV-2 has evolved, and waning vaccine effectiveness has been noted, vaccine formulations and policies have been updated to provide continued protection against severe illness and death from COVID-19. Since September 2022, bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have been recommended in the United States, but the variants these vaccines protect against are no longer circulating widely. On September 11, 2023, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the updated (2023-2024 Formula) COVID-19 mRNA vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech for persons aged ≥12 years and authorized these vaccines for persons aged 6 months-11 years under Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). On October 3, 2023, FDA authorized the updated COVID-19 vaccine by Novavax for use in persons aged ≥12 years under EUA. The updated COVID-19 vaccines include a monovalent XBB.1.5 component, which is meant to broaden vaccine-induced immunity and provide protection against currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 XBB-sublineage variants including against severe COVID-19-associated illness and death. On September 12, 2023, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommended vaccination with updated COVID-19 vaccines for all persons aged ≥6 months. These recommendations will be reviewed as new evidence becomes available or new vaccines are approved and might be updated.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalization among U.S. infants. Nirsevimab (Bevfortus, Sanofi and AstraZeneca) is recommended to prevent RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in infants. In August 2023, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved RSVpreF vaccine (Abrysvo, Pfizer Inc.) for pregnant persons as a single dose during 32-36 completed gestational weeks (i.e., 32 weeks and zero days' through 36 weeks and 6 days' gestation) to prevent RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease in infants aged <6 months. Since October 2021, CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) RSV Vaccines Pediatric/Maternal Work Group has reviewed RSV epidemiology and evidence regarding safety, efficacy, and potential economic impact of pediatric and maternal RSV prevention products, including RSVpreF vaccine. On September 22, 2023, ACIP and CDC recommended RSVpreF vaccine using seasonal administration (i.e., during September through end of January in most of the continental United States) for pregnant persons as a one-time dose at 32-36 weeks' gestation for prevention of RSV-associated LRTI in infants aged <6 months. Either maternal RSVpreF vaccination during pregnancy or nirsevimab administration to the infant is recommended to prevent RSV-associated LRTI among infants, but both are not needed for most infants. All infants should be protected against RSV-associated LRTI through use of one of these products.

In early 2022, a cluster of monkeypox virus (MPXV) infection (mpox) cases were identified within the UK with no prior travel history to MPXV-endemic regions. Subsequently, case numbers exceeding 80,000 were reported worldwide, primarily affecting gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM). Public health agencies worldwide have offered the IMVANEX Smallpox vaccination to these individuals at high-risk to provide protection and limit the spread of MPXV. We have developed a comprehensive array of ELISAs to study poxvirus-induced antibodies, utilising 24 MPXV and 3 Vaccinia virus (VACV) recombinant antigens. Panels of serum samples from individuals with differing Smallpox-vaccine doses and those with prior MPXV infection were tested on these assays, where we observed that one dose of Smallpox vaccination induces a low number of antibodies to a limited number of MPXV antigens but increasing with further vaccination doses. MPXV infection induced similar antibody responses to diverse poxvirus antigens observed in Smallpox-vaccinated individuals. We identify MPXV A27 as a serological marker of MPXV-infection, whilst MPXV M1 (VACV L1) is likely IMVANEX-specific. Here, we demonstrate analogous humoral antigen recognition between both MPXV-infected or Smallpox-vaccinated individuals, with binding to diverse yet core set of poxvirus antigens, providing opportunities for future vaccine (e.g., mRNA) and therapeutic (e.g., mAbs) design.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the leading cause of hospitalization among U.S. infants. In July 2023, the Food and Drug Administration approved nirsevimab, a long-acting monoclonal antibody, for passive immunization to prevent RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infection among infants and young children. Since October 2021, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) Maternal and Pediatric RSV Work Group has reviewed evidence on the safety and efficacy of nirsevimab among infants and young children. On August 3, 2023, ACIP recommended nirsevimab for all infants aged <8 months who are born during or entering their first RSV season and for infants and children aged 8-19 months who are at increased risk for severe RSV disease and are entering their second RSV season. On the basis of pre-COVID-19 pandemic patterns, nirsevimab could be administered in most of the continental United States from October through the end of March. Nirsevimab can prevent severe RSV disease among infants and young children at increased risk for severe RSV disease.

HIV-associated immunosuppression may increase risk of hospitalization with mpox. Among persons diagnosed with mpox in the state of Georgia, we characterized the association between hospitalization with mpox and HIV status. People with HIV and CD4 < 350 cells/mm3 or who were not engaged in HIV care had increased risk of hospitalization.

There are limited data on influenza vaccination coverage among pregnant people in the United States during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Within the Vaccine Safety Datalink, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to examine influenza vaccination coverage during the 2016-2017 through the 2021-2022 influenza seasons among pregnant people aged 18-49 years. Using influenza vaccines administered through March each season, we assessed crude coverage by demographic and clinical characteristics. Annual influenza vaccination coverage increased from the 2016-2017 season (63.0%) to a high of 71.0% in the 2019-2020 season. After the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, it decreased to a low of 56.4% (2021-2022). In each of the six seasons, coverage was lowest among pregnant people aged 18-24 years and among non-Hispanic Black pregnant people. The 2021-2022 season had the lowest coverage across all age and race and ethnicity groups. The recent decreases highlight the need for continued efforts to improve coverage among pregnant people.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information&amp; Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. &amp; Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia &amp; Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, &amp; Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. Accurate forecasts of key features of influenza epidemics, such as the timing and severity of the peak incidence in a given season, can inform public health response to outbreaks. As part of ongoing efforts to incorporate data and advanced analytical methods into public health decision-making, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized seasonal influenza forecasting challenges since the 2013/2014 season. In the 2017/2018 season, 22 teams participated. A subset of four teams created a research consortium called the FluSight Network in early 2017. During the 2017/2018 season they worked together to produce a collaborative multi-model ensemble that combined 21 separate component models into a single model using a machine learning technique called stacking. This approach creates a weighted average of predictive densities where the weight for each component is based on that component’s forecast accuracy in past seasons. In the 2017/2018 influenza season, one of the largest seasonal outbreaks in the last 15 years, this multi-model ensemble performed better on average than all individual component models and placed second overall in the CDC challenge. It also outperformed the baseline multi-model ensemble created by the CDC that took a simple average of all models submitted to the forecasting challenge. This project shows that collaborative efforts between research teams to develop ensemble forecasting approaches can bring measurable improvements in forecast accuracy and important reductions in the variability of performance from year to year. Efforts such as this, that emphasize real-time testing and evaluation of forecasting models and facilitate the close collaboration between public health officials and modeling researchers, are essential to improving our understanding of how best to use forecasts to improve public health response to seasonal and emerging epidemic threats.