IMPORTANCE: The oral microbiome likely plays key roles in human health. Yet, population-representative characterizations are lacking. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the composition, diversity, and correlates of the oral microbiome in US adults. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study analyzed data from the population-representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2009 to 2012. Microbiome data were made publicly available in 2024. NHANES participants were aged 18 to 69 years and provided oral rinse samples in 1 of 2 consecutive NHANES cycles (2009-2010 and 2011-2012). EXPOSURES: Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, anthropometric, metabolic, and clinical characteristics. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Oral microbiome measures, characterized through 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing, included α diversity (observed amplicon sequence variants [ASVs], Faith phylogenetic diversity, Shannon-Weiner Index, and Simpson Index); β diversity (unweighted UniFrac, weighted UniFrac, and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity); and prevalence and relative abundance at phylum level through genus level. Analyses accounted for the NHANES complex sample design. RESULTS: This study included 8237 US adults aged 18 to 69 years, representing 202 314 000 individuals (102 813 000 men [50.8%]; mean [SD] age, 42.3 [14.4] years; 9.3% self-reported as Mexican American, 12.1% as non-Hispanic Black, 64.7% as non-Hispanic White, 5.9% as other Hispanic, and 8.1% as other non-Hispanic individuals). The oral microbiome encompassed 37 bacterial phyla, 99 classes, 212 orders, 446 families, and 1219 genera. Five phyla (Firmicutes, Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria, and Fusobacteria) and 6 genera (Veillonella, Streptococcus, Prevotella 7, Rothia, Actinomyces, and Gemella) were present in nearly all US adults (weighted prevalence, >99%). These genera were the most abundant, accounting for 65.7% of total abundance. Observed ASVs showed a quadratic pattern with age (peak at 30 years), were similar by sex, significantly lower among non-Hispanic White individuals, and increased with greater body mass index (BMI), alcohol use, and periodontal disease severity. All covariates together accounted for a modest proportion of oral microbiome variability as measured by β diversity: R2 = 8.7% (95% CI, 8.4%-9.1%) for unweighted UniFrac, R2 = 7.2% (95% CI, 6.6%-7.7%) for weighted UniFrac, and R2 = 6.3% (95% CI, 3.1%-6.7%) for Bray-Curtis matrices. By contrast, relative abundance of a few genera explained a high percentage of variability in β diversity for weighted UniFrac: Aggregatibacter (R2 = 22.4%; 95% CI, 22.1%-22.8%), Lactococcus (R2 = 21.6%; 95% CI, 20.9%-22.3%), and Haemophilus (R2 = 18.4%; 95% CI, 18.1%-18.8%). Prevalence and relative abundance of numerous genera were associated with age, race and ethnicity, smoking, BMI categories, alcohol use, and periodontal disease severity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This cross-sectional study of the oral microbiome in US adults showed that a few genera were universally present and a different set of genera explained a high percentage of oral microbiome diversity across the population. This comprehensive characterization provides a contemporary reference standard for future studies.

In February 2023, the government of Equatorial Guinea declared an outbreak of Marburg virus disease. We describe the response structure and epidemiologic characteristics, including case-patient demographics, clinical manifestations, risk factors, and the serial interval and timing of symptom onset, treatment seeking, and recovery or death. We identified 16 laboratory-confirmed and 23 probable cases of Marburg virus disease in 5 districts and noted several unlinked chains of transmission and a case-fatality ratio of 90% (35/39 cases). Transmission was concentrated in family clusters and healthcare settings. The median serial interval was 18.5 days; most transmission occurred during late-stage disease. Rapid isolation of symptomatic case-patients is critical in preventing transmission and improving patient outcomes; community engagement and surveillance strengthening should be prioritized in emerging outbreaks. Further analysis of this outbreak and a One Health surveillance approach can help prevent and prepare for future potential spillover events.

BACKGROUND: Chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) are the third leading cause of death worldwide. Data of the associations between specific volatile organic compounds (VOCs), a major component of air pollution and tobacco smoke, and subsequent CRD mortality in the general population are scarce. METHODS: In a case-cohort analysis within the population-based Golestan cohort study (n = 50045, aged 40-75 years, 58% women, enrollment: 2004-2008, northeastern Iran), we included all participants who died from CRD during follow-up through 2018 (n = 242) as cases and stratified them into 16 strata defined by age, sex, residence, and tobacco smoking. Subcohort participants (n = 610) were randomly selected from all eligible cohort participants in each stratum, and sampling fractions were calculated. Baseline urine samples were used to measure 20 VOCs using ultra high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. After excluding participants with previous history of CRDs, we used stratified Cox regression models weighted by the inverse sampling fractions (i.e. inverse probability weighting) adjusted for potential confounders, including urinary cotinine and pack-years of smoking, to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for the associations between biomarker tertiles and CRD mortality. RESULTS: Data from 545 non-case, sub-cohort participants and 149 cases (69.1% chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 13.4% asthma, 17.5% other CRDs) were assessed in this study. During a follow-up of 10.5 years, associations [2nd and 3rd vs. 1st tertiles, HR (95% confidence interval), p for trend] were observed between metabolites of acrolein [1.56 (0.64,3.79), 3.53 (1.53,8.16), 0.002] and styrene/ethylbenzene [1.17 (0.53,2.60), 3.24 (1.37,7.66), 0.005] and CRD mortality, which persisted after excluding the first four years of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Our findings support prior research suggesting respiratory toxicity of VOCs. Further investigation and monitoring of these compounds, especially acrolein and styrene/ethylbenzene, as CRD risk factors, are recommended.

In 2022, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state and local partners, the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC), and the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), conducted a bi-national sample-initiated retrospective outbreak investigation (SIROI) of Listeria monocytogenes illnesses linked to enoki mushrooms. The FDA and CDC investigated the first known L. monocytogenes outbreak linked to enoki mushrooms from 2016-2020, making the 2022 outbreak the second time this pathogen-commodity pair was investigated by FDA and CDC. The 2022 outbreak included six ill people, all of whom were hospitalized. Epidemiologic, laboratory, and traceback evidence led to multiple public health actions, including voluntary recalls by firms, public communications about the outbreak, and FDA's country-wide Import Alert for enoki mushrooms from China. This SIROI illustrates the importance of surveillance sampling, national and international coordination of efforts, and rapid information sharing to identify and stop foodborne outbreaks on a global scale. To reduce the risk of listeriosis illnesses linked to contaminated enoki mushrooms, public health and regulatory agencies in the United States and Canada remain committed to conducting comprehensive surveillance for Listeria in foods and in people, efficiently investigating identified outbreaks, and implementing control measures to potentially minimize the impact of future outbreaks.

OBJECTIVE: The diagnostic criteria of lymphatic vascular invasion have not been standardized. Our investigation assesses the factors associated with lymphatic vascular invasion positive tumors and the impact of lymphatic vascular invasion on overall survival for patients with non-small cell lung cancer undergoing (bi)lobectomy with an adequate node dissection. METHODS: The National Cancer Database was queried from the years 2010 to 2015 to find surgical patients who underwent lobectomy with at least 10 lymph nodes examined (adequate node dissection) and with known lymphatic vascular invasion status. Paired t tests were used to distinguish differences between the patients with and without lymphatic vascular invasion in their specimen. Multivariable analysis was used to determine factors associated with overall survival. Propensity score matching adjusting for overall survival factors was used to determine the lymphatic vascular invasion's overall survival impact by grade, histology, p-T/N/overall stage, and tumor size. RESULTS: Lymphatic vascular invasion status was reported in 91.6% and positive in 23.4% of 28,842 eligible patients. Academic medical centers, institutions with populations more than 1,000,000, and the mid-Atlantic region reported higher rates of lymphatic vascular invasion positive tumors as well as overall survival compared with other cancer centers. Lymphatic vascular invasion was independently associated with a significant decrement in overall survival as per multivariable analysis and propensity score matching. Propensity score matching demonstrated that lymphatic vascular invasion was associated with a significant decrement in overall survival for all histologies, tumor grades, tumor sizes, and stages, except for more advanced pathologic stages T3/III/N2 and larger tumors greater than 4 cm for which overall survival was trending worse with lymphatic vascular invasion positive. CONCLUSIONS: Lymphatic vascular invasion positive varies based on hospital location/type and population, but it was associated with a decrement in overall survival that was independent of pathologic T/N/overall stage, histology, and tumor grade. Lymphatic vascular invasion must be standardized and considered as a staging variable and should be considered as a sole determinant for prognosis, especially for those with earlier-stage and smaller tumors.

Travel-related malaria is regularly encountered in the United States, and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) characterizes Plasmodium falciparum drug-resistance genotypes routinely for travel-related cases. An important aspect of antimalarial drug resistance is understanding its geographic distribution. However, specimens submitted to CDC laboratories may have missing, incomplete, or inaccurate travel data. To complement genotyping for drug-resistance markers Pfcrt, Pfmdr1, Pfk13, Pfdhps, Pfdhfr, and PfcytB at CDC, amplicons of Pfs47 and Pfcpmp are also sequenced as markers of geographic origin. Here, a bi-allele likelihood (BALK) classifier was trained using Pfs47 and Pfcpmp sequences from published P. falciparum genomes of known geographic origin to classify clinical genotypes to a continent. Among P. falciparum-positive blood samples received at CDC for drug-resistance genotyping from 2018 to 2021 (n = 380), 240 included a travel history with the submission materials, though 6 were excluded due to low sequence quality. Classifications obtained for the remaining 234 were compared to their travel histories. Classification results were over 96% congruent with reported travel for clinical samples, and with collection sites for field isolates. Among travel-related samples, only two incongruent results occurred; a specimen submitted citing Costa Rican travel classified to Africa, and a specimen with travel referencing Sierra Leone classified to Asia. Subsequently, the classifier was applied to specimens with unreported travel histories (n = 140; 5 were excluded due to low sequence quality). For the remaining 135 samples, geographic classification data were paired with results generated using CDC's Malaria Resistance Surveillance (MaRS) protocol, which detects single-nucleotide polymorphisms in and generates haplotypes for Pfcrt, Pfmdr1, Pfk13, Pfdhps, Pfdhfr, and PfcytB. Given the importance of understanding the geographic distribution of antimalarial drug resistance, this work will complement domestic surveillance efforts by expanding knowledge on the geographic origin of drug-resistant P. falciparum entering the USA.

BACKGROUND: Artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the first line anti-malarial drug for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria in Tanzania. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends regular efficacy monitoring of anti-malarial drugs to inform case management policy decisions. This study assessed the safety and efficacy of AL for treating uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria in Tanzania in 2022. METHODS: Children 6 months to 10 years with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria were recruited from four sentinel sites and treated with the standard 6 dose, 3-day regimen for AL. Clinical and parasitological responses were monitored for 28 days using the WHO standard protocol. Genotyping based on msp1, msp2 and glurp was used to distinguish recrudescence from reinfection. SANGER sequencing was used to detect K13 mutations. RESULTS: 352 participants, 88 per site, were enrolled. Four withdrew and 55 experienced parasite recurrence. The PCR corrected Kaplan-Meier efficacies were, 89.9% in Pwani, 95.0% in Kigoma, 94.4% in Tanga, and 98.9% in Morogoro. No K13 mutations were found. CONCLUSIONS: Artemether-lumefantrine remains highly efficacious in three regions of Tanzania but the PCR-corrected efficacy in Pwani fell below the WHO-defined 90% threshold at which policy change is recommended. Implementing strategies to diversify ACTs to ensure effective case management in Tanzania is critical.

Background: Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are major components of air pollution and tobacco smoke, two known risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. VOCs are ubiquitous in the environment and originate from a wide range of sources, including the burning of biomass, fossil fuels, and consumer products. Direct evidence for associations between specific VOCs and ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality in the general population is scarce. Methods: In a case-cohort study (stratified by age groups, sex, residence, and tobacco smoking), nested within the population-based Golestan cohort study (n = 50,045, 40–75 years, 58% women, enrollment: 2004–2008) in northeastern Iran, we measured urinary concentrations of 20 smoking-related VOC biomarkers using ultra high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. We calculated hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for their associations with IHD mortality during follow-up to 2018, using Cox regression models adjusted for age, ethnicity, education, marital status, body mass index, physical activity, wealth, and urinary cotinine. Results: There were 575 non-cases from random subcohort and 601 participants who died from IHD, mean (standard deviation) age, 58.2 (9.3) years, with a median of 8.4 years follow-up. Significant associations [3rd vs. 1st tertile, HR (95% CI), P for trend] were observed between biomarkers of acrylamide [1.68(1.05,2.69), 0.025], acrylonitrile [2.06(1.14,3.72), 0.058], acrolein [1.98(1.30,3.01), 0.003 and 2.44(1.43,4.18), 0.002], styrene/ethylbenzene [1.83(1.19,2.84), 0.007 and 1.44(1.01,2.07), 0.046], dimethylformamide/methylisocyanate [2.15(1.33,3.50), 0.001], and 1,3butadiene [2.35(1.52,3.63),<0.001] and IHD mortality. These associations were independent of tobacco smoking, and they were only present in the non-smoking subgroup. Conclusion: Our findings provide direct evidence for associations between exposure to several VOCs with widespread household and commercial use and IHD mortality many years after these exposures. These results highlight the importance of VOC exposure in the general population as a risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and underline the importance of bio-monitoring non-tobacco VOC exposure. © 2024

INTRODUCTION: Employees are often placed within an organization based on their respective roles or duties, which can lead to vertical and horizontal organizational silos. Organizational silos may restrict information, resources, and stymie progress and innovation. This analysis presents a framework to mitigate silos and overcome communication barriers within an organization by increasing collaboration. METHODS: The project team examined results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP) 2020 Employee Viewpoint Survey Results and conducted 19 key informant discussions with NCCDPHP employees. Participants were asked to provide feedback on (1) understanding silos in the workplace and (2) best practices for reducing silos and fostering collaboration. A thematic analysis was conducted to understand organizational silos, the motivation to reduce silos, and identify best practices and strategies. RESULTS: Respondents felt that siloing exists at the division and branch levels; however, 95% of respondents were motivated to reduce silos. Fifty-eight percent of respondents identified that institutional factors such as the organizational structure (n = 8) and red tape/bureaucracy (n = 3) contribute to siloing. Additional behaviors and actions that perpetuate silos were identified, and efforts to reduce silos were categorized to propose a model: Framework to Foster Collaboration for improving organizational collaborative efforts. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Key themes included inclusion, shared goals and vision, bi-directional communication, and relationship building and developing trust as critical elements for improving collaboration and creating synergy across teams in efforts to reduce silos in the workplace.

Venous thromboembolism (VTE), including deep vein thrombosis and pulmonary embolism, is a life-threatening, costly, and common preventable complication associated with hospitalization. Although VTE prevention strategies such as risk assessment and prophylaxis are available, they are not applied uniformly or systematically across US hospitals and healthcare systems. Hospital-level performance measurement has been used nationally to promote standardized approaches for VTE prevention and incentivize the adoption of guideline-based care management. Though most measures reflect care processes rather than outcomes, certain domains including diagnosis, treatment, and continuity of care remain unmeasured. In this article, we describe the development of VTE prevention measures from various stakeholders, measure strengths and limitations, publicly reported rates, the impact of technology and health policy on measure use, and perspectives on future options for surveillance and performance monitoring.

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season by one week. After accounting for waning VE, repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for A(H3N2) (OR=1.11, 95%CI:1.02-1.21) but not for influenza B or A(H1N1). We found that clinical infection influenced individuals' decision to vaccinate in the following season while protecting against clinical infection of the same (sub)type. However, adjusting for recent clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. In contrast, we found that adjusting for subclinical infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Additional investigation is needed to determine the impact of subclinical infections on VE.

A systems analysis was conducted to determine the potential molecular mechanisms underlying differential immunogenicity and protective efficacy results of a clinical trial of the radiation-attenuated whole sporozoite PfSPZ Vaccine in African infants. Innate immune activation and myeloid signatures at pre-vaccination baseline correlated with protection from Pf parasitemia in placebo controls. These same signatures were associated with susceptibility to parasitemia among infants who received the highest and most protective PfSPZ Vaccine dose. Machine learning identified spliceosome, proteosome, and resting dendritic cell signatures as pre-vaccination features predictive of protection after highest-dose PfSPZ vaccination, whereas baseline CSP-specific IgG predicted non-protection. Pre-vaccination innate inflammatory and myeloid signatures were associated with higher sporozoite-specific IgG Ab response but undetectable PfSPZ-specific CD8+ T-cell responses post-vaccination. Consistent with these human data, innate stimulation in vivo conferred protection against infection by sporozoite injection in malaria-naïve mice while diminishing the CD8+ T-cell response to radiation-attenuated sporozoites. These data suggest a dichotomous role of innate stimulation for malaria protection and induction of protective immunity of whole-sporozoite malaria vaccines. The uncoupling of vaccine-induced protective immunity achieved by Abs from more protective CD8+ T cell responses suggest that PfSPZ Vaccine efficacy in malaria-endemic settings may be constrained by opposing antigen presentation pathways.

Marburg virus (MARV) and Ravn virus (RAVV), collectively called marburgviruses, cause Marburg hemorrhagic fever (MHF) in humans. In July 2007, 4 cases of MHF (1 fatal) occurred in miners at Kitaka Mine in southern Uganda. Later, MHF occurred in 2 tourists who visited Python Cave, ≈50 km from Kitaka Mine. One of the tourists was from the United States (December 2007) and 1 was from the Netherlands (July 2008); 1 case was fatal (1,2,3). The cave and the mine each contained 40,000–100,000 Rousettus aegyptiacus bats (Egyptian fruit bats). | | Longitudinal investigations of the outbreaks at both locations were initiated by the Viral Special Pathogens Branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, Atlanta, GA, USA, and Entebbe, Uganda) in collaboration with the Uganda Wildlife Authority (UWA) and the Uganda Virus Research Institute (UVRI). During these studies, genetically diverse MARVs and RAVVs were isolated directly from bat tissues, and infection levels of the 2 viruses were found to increase in juvenile bats on a predictable bi-annual basis (4,5). However, investigations at Kitaka Mine were stopped when the miners exterminated the bat colony by restricting egress from the cave with papyrus reed barriers and then entangling the bats in fishing nets draped over the exits. The trapping continued for weeks, and the entrances were then sealed with sticks and plastic. These depopulation efforts were documented by researchers from UVRI, the CDC, the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (Sandringham, South Africa), and UWA during site visits to Kitaka Mine (Technical Appendix Figure). In August 2008, thousands of dead bats were found piled in the forest, and by November 2008, there was no evidence of bats living in the mine; whether 100% extermination was achieved is unknown. CDC, UVRI, and UWA recommended against extermination, believing that any results would be temporary and that such efforts could exacerbate the problem if bat exclusion methods were not complete and permanent (6,7).

Viral metagenomics sequencing of fecal samples from outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis from the US revealed the presence of small circular ssDNA viral genomes encoding a replication initiator protein (Rep). Viral genomes were ∼2.5 kb in length, with bi-directionally oriented Rep and capsid (Cap) encoding genes and a stem loop structure downstream of Rep. Several genomes showed evidence of recombination. By digital screening of an in-house virome database (1.04 billion reads) using BLAST, we identified closely related sequences from cases of unexplained diarrhea in France. Deep sequencing and PCR detected such genomes in 7 of 25 US (28 percent) and 14 of 21 French outbreaks (67 percent). One of eighty-five sporadic diarrhea cases in the Gambia was positive by PCR. Twenty-two complete genomes were characterized showing that viruses from patients in the same outbreaks were closely related suggesting common origins. Similar genomes were also characterized from the stools of captive chimpanzees, a gorilla, a black howler monkey, and a lemur that were more diverse than the human stool-associated genomes. The name smacovirus is proposed for this monophyletic viral clade. Possible tropism include mammalian enteric cells or ingested food components such as infected plants. No evidence of viral amplification was found in immunodeficient mice orally inoculated with smacovirus-positive stool supernatants. A role for smacoviruses in diarrhea, if any, remains to be demonstrated.

OBJECTIVE: Death from tuberculosis or HIV among people from racial and ethnic minority groups who are aged <65 years is a public health concern. We describe age-adjusted, absolute, and relative death rates from HIV or tuberculosis from 2011 through 2020 by sex, race, and ethnicity among US residents. METHODS: We used mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention online data system on deaths from multiple causes from 2011 through 2020 to calculate age-adjusted death rates and absolute and relative disparities in rates of death by sex, race, and ethnicity. We calculated corresponding 95% CIs for all rates and determined significance at P < .05 by using z tests. RESULTS: For tuberculosis, when compared with non-Hispanic White residents, non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native residents had the highest level of disparity in rate of death (666.7%). Similarly, as compared with non-Hispanic White female residents, American Indian or Alaska Native female residents had a high relative disparity in death from tuberculosis (620.0%). For HIV, the age-adjusted death rate was more than 8 times higher among non-Hispanic Black residents than among non-Hispanic White residents, and the relative disparity was 735.1%. When compared with non-Hispanic White female residents, Black female residents had a high relative disparity in death from HIV (1529.2%). CONCLUSION: Large disparities in rates of death from tuberculosis or HIV among US residents aged <65 years based on sex, race, and ethnicity indicate an ongoing unmet need for effective interventions. Intervention strategies are needed to address disparities in rates of death and infection among racial and ethnic minority populations.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Testing and treating asymptomatic populations have the potential to reduce the population's parasite reservoir and reduce malaria transmission. Zanzibar's malaria case notification (MCN) platform collects detailed sociodemographic and epidemiological data from all confirmed malaria cases to inform programmatic decision-making. We describe the design and operationalization process of the platform and other malaria surveillance resources that are enabling Zanzibar's progress toward malaria elimination.The MCN platform consists of an interactive short message service (SMS) system for case notification, a software application for Android mobile devices, a visual question set and workflow manager, a back-end database server, and a web browser-based application for data analytics, configuration, and management. Malaria case data were collected from August 2012 to December 2021 and reported via SMS from all public and private health facilities to a central database and then to district malaria surveillance officers' mobile devices. Data included patient names, shehia (administrative area), and date of diagnosis, enabling officers to track patients, ideally within 24 hours of reporting. Patients' household members were tested for malaria using conventional rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Treatment using artemisinin-based combination therapy was provided for persons testing positive.Between 2012 and 2021, a total of 48,899 index malaria cases were confirmed at health facilities, 22,152 (45.3%) within 24 hours of reporting; 41,886 (85.7%) cases were fully investigated and followed up to the household level. A total of 111,811 additional household members were tested with RDTs, of whom 10,602 (9.5%) were malaria positive.The MCN platform reports malaria case data in near real time, enabling prompt follow-up of index cases and prompt testing and treatment of members in index case households. Along with routine testing and treatment and other preventive interventions, the MCN platform is foundational to the programmatic efforts in further reducing malaria and ultimately eliminating autochthonous malaria transmission in Zanzibar.

BACKGROUND: Since 1990, most US schoolchildren have received a second dose of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR2) at kindergarten entry. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the short- and long-term mumps immunogenicity of MMR2. METHODS: At enrollment in 1994-1995, children (n=308) in a rural Wisconsin health maintenance organization received MMR2 at age 4-6 years. A comparison group of older children (n=308) was vaccinated at age 9-11 years. Serum samples were collected over 12 years. Mumps antibody levels were evaluated by plaque-reduction neutralization (lowest detectable titer, 10). RESULTS: Before MMR2, the geometric mean titer (GMT) for the younger group was 33; no subject was seronegative, but 16% had the lowest detectable titer. In response to MMR2, the GMT tripled to 97, and the proportion with low titers diminished to 3%. Four-fold boosts occurred among 54%, but only 3% were positive for immunoglobulin M. Twelve years after MMR2, the GMT declined to 46, the proportion with titers<or=10 was not significantly different from the pre-MMR2 proportion, and 5% were seronegative. The older group showed similar patterns, and at age 17 years both groups had comparable antibody levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mumps antibody response to MMR2 was vigorous, but over a 12-year period titers declined to levels similar to pre-MMR2 titers. No advantage was apparent in delaying MMR2 from kindergarten to middle school.

BACKGROUND: Individual risk assessment allows donors to be evaluated based on their own behaviors. Study objectives were to assess human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk behaviors in men who have sex with men (MSM) and estimate the proportion of the study population who would not be deferred for higher risk HIV sexual behaviors. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional survey and biomarker assessment were conducted in eight U.S. cities. Participants were sexually active MSM interested in blood donation aged 18-39 years, assigned male sex at birth. Participants completed surveys during two study visits to define eligibility, and self-reported sexual and HIV prevention behaviors. Blood was drawn at study visit 1 and tested for HIV and the presence of tenofovir, one of the drugs in oral HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). Associations were assessed between HIV infection status or HIV PrEP use and behaviors, including sex partners, new partners, and anal sex. RESULTS: A total of 1566 MSM completed the visit 1 questionnaire and blood draw and 1197 completed the visit 2 questionnaire. Among 1562 persons without HIV, 789 (50.4%) were not taking PrEP. Of those not taking PrEP, 66.2% reported one sexual partner or no anal sex and 69% reported no new sexual partners or no anal sex with a new partner in the past 3 months. CONCLUSION: The study found that questions were able to identify sexually active, HIV-negative MSM who report lower risk sexual behaviors. About a quarter of enrolled study participants would be potentially eligible blood donors using individual risk assessment questions.

The COVID-19 pandemic sparked the development of novel anti-viral drugs that have shown to be effective in reducing both fatality and hospitalization rates in patients with elevated risk for COVID-19 related morbidity or mortality. Currently, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (Paxlovid™) fixed-dose combination is recommended by the World Health Organization for treatment of COVID-19. The ritonavir component is an inhibitor of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A, which is used in this combination to achieve needed therapeutic concentrations of nirmatrelvir. Because of the critical pharmacokinetic effect of this mechanism of action for Paxlovid™, co-administration with needed medications that inhibit or induce CYP3A is contraindicated, reflecting concern for interactions with the potential to alter the efficacy or safety of co-administered drugs that are also metabolized by CYP3A. Some herbal medicines are known to interact with drug metabolizing enzymes and transporters, including but not limited to inhibition or induction of CYP3A and P-glycoprotein. As access to these COVID-19 medications has increased in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), understanding the potential for herb-drug interactions within these regions is important. Many studies have evaluated the utility of herbal medicines for COVID-19 treatments, yet information on potential herb-drug interactions involving Paxlovid™, specifically with herbal medicines commonly used in LMICs, is lacking. This review presents data on regionally-relevant herbal medicine use (particularly those promoted as treatments for COVID-19) and mechanism of action data on herbal medicines to highlight the potential for herbal medicine interaction Herb-drug interaction mediated by ritonavir-boosted antiviral protease inhibitors This work highlights potential areas for future experimental studies and data collection, identifies herbal medicines for inclusion in future listings of regionally diverse potential HDIs and underscores areas for LMIC-focused provider-patient communication. This overview is presented to support governments and health protection entities as they prepare for an increase of availability and use of Paxlovid™.

PURPOSE: To facilitate use of timely, granular, and publicly available data on COVID-19 mortality, we provide a method for imputing suppressed COVID-19 death counts in the National Center for Health Statistic's 2020 provisional mortality data by quarter, county, and age. METHODS: We used a Bayesian approach to impute suppressed COVID-19 death counts by quarter, county, and age in provisional data for 3,138 US counties. Our model accounts for multilevel data structures; numerous zero death counts among persons aged <50 years, rural counties, early quarters in 2020; highly right-skewed distributions; and different levels of data granularity (county, state or locality, and national levels). We compared three models with different prior assumptions of suppressed COVID-19 deaths, including noninformative priors (M1), the same weakly informative priors for all age groups (M2), and weakly informative priors that differ by age (M3) to impute the suppressed death counts. After the imputed suppressed counts were available, we assessed three prior assumptions at the national, state/locality, and county level, respectively. Finally, we compared US counties by two types of COVID-19 death rates, crude (CDR) and age-standardized death rates (ASDR), which can be estimated only through imputing suppressed death counts. RESULTS: Without imputation, the total COVID-19 death counts estimated from the raw data underestimated the reported national COVID-19 deaths by 18.60%. Using imputed data, we overestimated the national COVID-19 deaths by 3.57% (95% CI: 3.37%-3.80%) in model M1, 2.23% (95% CI: 2.04%-2.43%) in model M2, and 2.96% (95% CI: 2.76%-3.16%) in model M3 compared with the national report. The top 20 counties that were most affected by COVID-19 mortality were different between CDR and ASDR. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian imputation of suppressed county-level, age-specific COVID-19 deaths in US provisional data can improve county ASDR estimates and aid public health officials in identifying disparities in deaths from COVID-19.

The 2017-2018 North American influenza season caused more hospitalizations and deaths than any year since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. The majority of recorded influenza infections were caused by A(H3N2) viruses, with most of the virus’s North American diversity falling into the A2 clade. Within A2, we observe a subclade which we call A2/re that rose to comprise almost 70% of A(H3N2) viruses circulating in North America by early 2018. Unlike most fast-growing clades, however, A2/re contains no amino acid substitutions in the hemagglutinin (HA) segment. Moreover, HI assays did not suggest substantial antigenic differences between A2/re viruses and viruses sampled during the 2016-2017 season. Rather, we observe that the A2/re clade was the result of a reassortment event that occurred in late 2016 or early 2017 and involved the combination of the HA and PB1 segments of an A2 virus with neuraminidase (NA) and other segments a virus from the clade A1b. The success of this clade shows the need for antigenic analysis that targets NA in addition to HA. Our results illustrate the potential for non-HA drivers of viral success and necessitate the need for more thorough tracking of full viral genomes to better understand the dynamics of influenza epidemics.

Insights from biomedical citation networks can be used to identify promising avenues for accelerating research and its downstream bench-to-bedside translation. Citation analysis generally assumes that each citation documents substantive knowledge transfer that informed the conception, design, or execution of the main experiments. Citations may exist for other reasons. In this paper, we take advantage of late-stage citations added during peer review because these are less likely to represent substantive knowledge flow. Using a large, comprehensive feature set of open access data, we train a predictive model to identify late-stage citations. The model relies only on the title, abstract, and citations to previous articles but not the full-text or future citations patterns, making it suitable for publications as soon as they are released, or those behind a paywall (the vast majority). We find that high prediction scores identify late-stage citations that were likely added during the peer review process as well as those more likely to be rhetorical, such as journal self-citations added during review. Our model conversely gives low prediction scores to early-stage citations and citation classes that are known to represent substantive knowledge transfer. Using this model, we find that US federally funded biomedical research publications represent 30% of the predicted early-stage (and more likely to be substantive) knowledge transfer from basic studies to clinical research, even though these comprise only 10% of the literature. This is a threefold overrepresentation in this important type of knowledge flow.

Background. Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees in a given season. Understanding the underlying causes requires consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Methods. Using the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Network data over 8 influenza seasons (2011-2012 to 2018-2019), we estimated the effect of prior-season vaccination on the odds of clinical infection in a given season, after accounting for waning vaccine protection using regression methods. We adjusted for potential confounding by recent clinical infection using inverse-probability weighting. We investigated theoretically whether unmeasured subclinical infection in the prior season, which is more likely in the non-repeat vaccinees, could explain the repeat vaccination effect. Results. Repeat vaccinees vaccinated earlier in a season by one week. After accounting for waning VE, repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for influenza A(H3N2) (OR=1.11, 95% CI:1.02-1.21) but not for influenza B (OR=1.03, 95% CI:0.89-1.18) or A(H1N1) (OR=1.03, 95% CI:0.90-1.19) compared to those vaccinated in the given season only. Recent clinical infection with the homologous (sub)type protected against clinical infection with A(H3N2) or B. Individuals with clinical infection in one season had 1.11 (95% CI:1.03-1.19) times the odds of switching vaccination status in the following season. Adjusting for recent clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. Adjusting for subclinical infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Conclusion. Waning protection and recent clinical infection were insufficient to explain observed reduced VE in repeat vaccinees with a test-negative design. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.

Testing and treating asymptomatic populations has the potential to reduce the population's parasite reservoir and reduce malaria transmission. Zanzibar's electronic malaria case notification (MCN) platform collects detailed socio-demographic and epidemiological data from all confirmed malaria cases to inform programmatic decision-making. This Field Action Report describes the design and operationalization process of the platform, as well as other malaria surveillance resources that are enabling Zanzibar to progress toward malaria elimination. The MCN platform consists of an interactive short message service (SMS) system for case notification, a software application for Android mobile devices, a visual question set and workflow manager, a back-end database server, and a web browser-based application for data analytics, configuration, and management. Malaria case data were collected from August 2012 to December 2021 and reported via SMS from all public and private health facilities to a central database, and then to District Malaria Surveillance Officers' mobile devices. Data included patient names, shehia and date of diagnosis, which enabled the officers to track patients, ideally within 24 hours of reporting. Patients' household members were tested for malaria using conventional rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Treatment using artemisinin-based combination therapy was provided for persons testing positive. Between 2012 and 2021, a total of 48,899 index malaria cases were confirmed at health facilities, 22,152 (45.3%) of whom within 24 hours of reporting; 41,886 (85.7%) cases were fully investigated and followed up to household level. A total of 111,811 additional household members were tested with RDTs, of whom 10,602 (9.5%) were malaria positive. The MCN platform reports malaria case data in near real-time, enabling prompt testing and treatment of members in index case households. Along with routine testing and treatment and other preventive interventions, combined with comprehensive reactive-case detection efforts, the continued use of the MCN platform is likely to reduce malaria transmission and malaria morbidity even further, thereby enhancing malaria elimination in Zanzibar. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.

Citation analysis generally assumes that each citation documents causal knowledge transfer that informed the conception, design, or execution of the main experiments. Citations may exist for other reasons. In this paper we identify a subset of citations that are unlikely to represent causal knowledge flow. Using a large, comprehensive feature set of open access data, we train a predictive model to identify such citations. The model relies only on the title, abstract, and reference set and not the full-text or future citations patterns, making it suitable for publications as soon as they are released, or those behind a paywall. We find that the model identifies, with high prediction scores, citations that were likely added during the peer review process, and conversely identifies with low prediction scores citations that are known to represent causal knowledge transfer. Using the model, we find that federally funded biomedical research publications represent 30% of the estimated causal knowledge transfer from basic studies to clinical research, even though these comprise only 10% of the literature, a three-fold overrepresentation in this important type of knowledge transfer. This finding underscores the importance of federal funding as a policy lever to improve human health. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.

SARS-CoV-2 is a zoonotic virus with documented bi-directional transmission between people and animals. Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to free-ranging white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) poses a unique public health risk due to the potential for reservoir establishment where variants may persist and evolve. We collected 8,830 respiratory samples from free-ranging white-tailed deer across Washington, D.C. and 26 states in the United States between November 2021 and April 2022. We obtained 391 sequences and identified 34 Pango lineages including the Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron variants. Evolutionary analyses showed these white-tailed deer viruses originated from at least 109 independent spillovers from humans, which resulted in 39 cases of subsequent local deer-to-deer transmission and three cases of potential spillover from white-tailed deer back to humans. Viruses repeatedly adapted to white-tailed deer with recurring amino acid substitutions across spike and other proteins. Overall, our findings suggest that multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages were introduced, became enzootic, and co-circulated in white-tailed deer.

BACKGROUND: Understanding respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) global epidemiology is important to inform future prevention strategies. METHODS: Hospitalized infants <1-year-old with acute illness were enrolled prospectively in Albania, Jordan, Nicaragua, and Philippines during respiratory seasons in 2015-2017. Medical chart review, parental interview, and post-discharge follow up were conducted. Respiratory specimens were tested using real-time RT-PCR for RSV. Infant characteristics associated with very severe illness (intensive care unit [ICU] admission or receipt of supplemental oxygen) were assessed using logistic regression to adjust for potential confounders (age, sex, study site, preterm birth). RESULTS: Of 3,634 enrolled hospitalized infants, 1,129 (31%) tested positive for RSV. The median age of RSV-positive infants was 2.7 (IQR: 1.4 to 6.1) months and 665 (59%) were male. Very severe illness in 583 (52%) RSV-positive infants was associated with younger age (aOR 4.1, 95% CI: 2.6-6.5 for 0-2 compared to 9-11-months; p<0.01), , low weight-for-age z-score (aOR 1.9, 95%CI: 1.2-2.8; p<0.01), ICU care after birth (aOR 1.6, 95%CI: 1.0-2.5; p=0.48), and cesarean delivery (aOR 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-1.8; p=.03). RSV subgroups A and B co-circulated at all sites with alternating predominance by year; subgroup was not associated with severity (aOR 1.0, 95% CI: 0.8-1.4). Nine (0.8%) RSV-positive infants died during admission or within ≤30 days of discharge, of which 7 (78%) were <6-months-old. CONCLUSIONS: RSV was associated with nearly a third of infant acute illness hospitalizations in four middle-income countries during the respiratory season, where, in addition to young age, factors including low weight-for-age might be important predictors of severity. RSV prevention strategies targeting young infants could substantially reduce RSV-associated hospitalizations in middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Beginning in October 2016, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) issued expanded guidance requiring accrediting organizations and state survey agencies to report serious infection control breaches to relevant state health departments. This project sought to characterize and summarize The Joint Commission's early experiences and findings in applying this guidance to facilities accredited under the ambulatory and office-based surgery programs in 2017. METHODS: Surveyor notes were retrospectively reviewed to identify individual breaches, and then the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Infection Prevention Checklist for Outpatient Settings was used to categorize and code documented breaches. RESULTS: Of 845 ambulatory organizations, 39 (4.6%) had breaches observed during the survey process and reported to health departments. Within these organizations, surveyors documented 356 breaches, representing 52 different breach codes. Common breach domains were sterilization of reusable devices, device reprocessing observation, device reprocessing, disinfection of reusable devices, and infection control program and infrastructure. Eight of the 39 facilities (20.5%) were cited for not performing the minimum level of reprocessing based on the items' intended use, reusing single-use devices, and/or not using aseptic technique to prepare injections. CONCLUSION: The CMS infection control breach reporting requirement has helped highlight some of the challenges faced by ambulatory facilities in providing a safe care environment for their patients. This analysis identified numerous opportunities for improved staff training and competencies as well as leadership oversight and investment in necessary resources. More systematic assessments of infection control practices, extending to both accredited and nonaccredited ambulatory facilities, are needed to inform oversight and prevention efforts.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recommends drug-susceptibility testing of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex for all patients with tuberculosis to guide treatment decisions and improve outcomes. Whether DNA sequencing can be used to accurately predict profiles of susceptibility to first-line antituberculosis drugs has not been clear. METHODS: We obtained whole-genome sequences and associated phenotypes of resistance or susceptibility to the first-line antituberculosis drugs isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide for isolates from 16 countries across six continents. For each isolate, mutations associated with drug resistance and drug susceptibility were identified across nine genes, and individual phenotypes were predicted unless mutations of unknown association were also present. To identify how whole-genome sequencing might direct first-line drug therapy, complete susceptibility profiles were predicted. These profiles were predicted to be susceptible to all four drugs (i.e., pansusceptible) if they were predicted to be susceptible to isoniazid and to the other drugs or if they contained mutations of unknown association in genes that affect susceptibility to the other drugs. We simulated the way in which the negative predictive value changed with the prevalence of drug resistance. RESULTS: A total of 10,209 isolates were analyzed. The largest proportion of phenotypes was predicted for rifampin (9660 [95.4%] of 10,130) and the smallest was predicted for ethambutol (8794 [89.8%] of 9794). Resistance to isoniazid, rifampin, ethambutol, and pyrazinamide was correctly predicted with 97.1%, 97.5%, 94.6%, and 91.3% sensitivity, respectively, and susceptibility to these drugs was correctly predicted with 99.0%, 98.8%, 93.6%, and 96.8% specificity. Of the 7516 isolates with complete phenotypic drug-susceptibility profiles, 5865 (78.0%) had complete genotypic predictions, among which 5250 profiles (89.5%) were correctly predicted. Among the 4037 phenotypic profiles that were predicted to be pansusceptible, 3952 (97.9%) were correctly predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Genotypic predictions of the susceptibility of M. tuberculosis to first-line drugs were found to be correlated with phenotypic susceptibility to these drugs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).