BACKGROUND: We estimate annual viral influenza-associated mild-to-moderate illness, hospitalizations, and deaths in 6 South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay) during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons as a first step in evaluating the full value of influenza vaccination in the subregion. METHODS: We applied a multiplier method using monthly hospital discharge and vital statistics death records, influenza surveillance data, and population projections to estimate mild-to-moderate influenza-associated illness, hospitalizations, and deaths. We estimated the uncertainty bounds based on the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of the Monte Carlo simulated distributions for the number of cases and obtained the ranges from the minimum value of the 2.5th and the maximum value of the 97.5th percentile. RESULTS: In selected countries with a total population of 307 million people, the yearly influenza-associated burden of disease ranged between 51 and 78 million mild-to-moderate influenza illnesses, between 323 379 and 490 049 hospitalizations, and between 22 662 and 46 971 deaths during the 2015-2019 influenza seasons. CONCLUSIONS: Each year, influenza is associated with millions of illnesses, hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations, and tens of thousands of deaths in 6 South American countries, affecting a significant portion of the population. Such findings can be used to estimate the number of illnesses averted through vaccination programs and the cost-benefit of influenza vaccines.

BACKGROUND: To better establish the value of vaccination against influenza viruses, we estimated vaccine-averted influenza illnesses among young children and older adults in Chile, Guyana, and Paraguay. METHODS: We gathered country- and target population-specific data on monthly influenza hospitalizations, vaccine coverage, and vaccine effectiveness from surveillance records and immunization registries during 2013-2018. We applied a static compartmental model to estimate differences in the number influenza-associated respiratory disease events (symptomatic nonhospitalized illnesses, medically attended illnesses, hospitalizations) in the presence and absence of influenza vaccination programs. RESULTS: Between 2013 and 2018, vaccinating 68% of children aged 6-23 months in Chile averted an annual mean of 14 617 nonhospitalized, 9426 medically attended, and 328 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 28% of children aged 6-23 months in Paraguay averted 1115 nonhospitalized, 719 medically attended, and 25 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 59% of older adults in Chile averted an annual mean of 83 429 nonhospitalized, 37 079 medically attended, and 1390 hospitalized influenza illnesses; vaccinating 36% of older adults in Paraguay averted an annual mean of 3932 nonhospitalized, 1748 medically attended, and 66 hospitalized influenza illnesses. In Guyana, a hypothetical campaign vaccinating 30% of children aged <5 years could have prevented an annual 1496 nonhospitalized, 971 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses. Vaccinating 30% of adults aged ≥65 years could have prevented 568 nonhospitalized, 257 medically attended, and 10 hospitalized influenza illnesses. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination averted tens of thousands of illnesses and thousands of hospitalizations in Chile and Paraguay; influenza vaccination could have had a proportional benefit in Guyana.

INTRODUCTION: Data about healthcare workers' (HCW) willingness to accept and recommend seasonal influenza vaccination in countries without influenza vaccination programs are limited. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 7 of the 47 counties in Kenya to examine HCW's knowledge and perceptions of seasonal influenza disease and vaccination. We aimed to enroll all HCW who deliver clinical services directly or peripherally to patients from 5 health facilities in each county. We used chi-square tests and mixed effects logistic regression to identify variables associated with HCW's willingness to accept and recommend seasonal influenza vaccination. RESULTS: From May-June 2018, we enrolled 2035 HCW, representing 49.0 % of targeted respondents from 35 facilities. Most HCW (82.1 %) were from public health facilities. Among the HCW who had heard of seasonal influenza, 87.3 % (1420/1627) believed it can cause severe illness. Most HCW (1076/1209; 89.0 %) were willing to receive a seasonal influenza vaccine if it was recommended for them and provided for free, and 91.4 % (1441/1576) would vaccinate or recommend vaccination to their patients if vaccine was available. Only 17.6 % (213/1212) reported having ever received a seasonal influenza vaccine. HCW who believed that influenza could cause severe illness (aOR 1.8; 95 % CI 1.0-3.2) and that people around them would be better protected from influenza illness if HCW are vaccinated (aOR 3.1; 95 % CI 2.0-4.9) were more likely to report willingness to accept vaccination. HCW from private health facilities (aOR 2.2; 95 % CI 1.3-6.4), and those who believed that people around them are better protected if HCW are vaccinated (aOR 3.5; 95 % CI 2.2-5.8) were more likely to report willingness to vaccinate or recommend vaccination to patients. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest favorable attitudes among HCW towards seasonal influenza vaccination, many of whom are motivated by the desire to protect the health of others around them.

Background: Annual estimates of seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness can guide global risk communication and vaccination strategies to mitigate influenza-associated illness. We aimed to evaluate vaccine effectiveness in countries using the 2023 southern hemisphere influenza vaccine formulation.

We studied the relationship of frailty and acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) among a multi-site cohort of community-dwelling older adults aged ≥60 years in India. During January 2019‒January 2020, participants completed the Edmonton Frail Scale (EFS) at baseline and every 3 months at four sites in India, with each participant completing a maximum of four surveys. Participants were categorized as non-frail (0-5 points), vulnerable (6-7 points), and frail (≥8 points) based on EFS score. Project nurses made weekly home visits to identify ALRI episodes with onset during past 7 days. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for having an ALRI episode within 90 days after EFS by frailty category. We also assessed risk of deterioration of frailty during 7-100 days after ALRI episode onset in terms of an increased EFS score by ≥1 point and change of frailty category. Among 5801 participants (median age 65 years, 41% males), 3568 (61·5%) were non-frail, 1507 (26%) vulnerable, and 726 (12·5%) frail at enrolment. Compared with non-frail participants, the hazard of an ALRI episode was higher among vulnerable (aHR: 1·6, (95%CI 1·3-2.0) and frail participants (aHR: 1·7, 95%CI 1·3-2·2). Participants having ALRI within the past 7-100 days were at increased risk of worsening frailty category (aOR: 1.9, 95%CI 1·3-2.8) compared to participants without an ALRI episode during the same period. The association between ALRIs and worsened frailty suggests prevention of ALRIs through vaccination and other strategies may have broad reaching health benefits for older adults.

Background: Vaccination is one of the most effective measures to prevent influenza illness and its complications. Since the 1980s, countries and territories in the Americas have progressively implemented influenza vaccination operations in high-risk priority groups—such as older adults, pregnant persons, persons with comorbidities and health workers. Methods: In this review, we present the history and progress of the seasonal influenza program in the Americas, how the program contributed to the efficient and timely roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines during the pandemic, and how the program can be used to promote immunization operations across the life span for existing and future vaccines. Results: The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 pandemic in 2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2023 underscored the importance of having a robust seasonal influenza vaccination program for pandemic preparedness and response. Overall, countries with existing seasonal influenza vaccination programs were better prepared and rolled out the delivery of COVID-19 vaccines more quickly and effectively compared to other countries where the influenza vaccination platform was weak or non-existent. Conclusions: Traditionally, national immunization programs of developing countries have been predominately focused on newborns, children younger than five years and school-aged children while often limiting their investment in effective adult vaccination programs; these programs are typically isolated to high-income countries. Countries in Latin America have been the exception, with strong influenza vaccination programs for adults regardless of national income level. The presence of functional and effective adult influenza vaccination programs can also facilitate the acceptance and uptake of other adult vaccines targeting priority groups at higher risk for severe illness or complications. © 2024 by the authors.

OBJECTIVES: Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness was low in a prospective cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP) in Israel from 2016 to 2019. We conducted a randomised immunogenicity trial of quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4) and standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) among frequently and infrequently vaccinated previous cohort participants. METHODS: From October 2019 to January 2020, we enrolled and randomly allocated HCP from two Israeli hospitals to receive IIV4 or RIV4. Hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibody titres against 2019-2020 vaccine reference influenza viruses were compared between vaccine groups using geometric mean titre (GMT) ratios from sera collected one-month post-vaccination and by frequency of vaccination in the past 5 years (>2 vs ≤2). RESULTS: Among 415 HCP, the GMT ratio comparing RIV4 to IIV4 was 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7-2.7) for A(H1N1)pdm09, 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-1.9) for A(H3N2), 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.2) for B(Yamagata), and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.9-1.4) for B(Victoria). Similarly, RIV4 elicited higher HAI titres than IIV4 against all 2019-2020 vaccine reference viruses except B(Victoria) among infrequently and frequently vaccinated HCP (lower bound of GMT ratio 95% CIs ≥1.0). CONCLUSION: RIV4 had improved immunogenicity for influenza vaccine strains among both infrequent and frequent vaccinees compared to standard-dose IIV4. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT04523324.

Pregnancy is associated with increased risk for severe illness and complications associated with influenza infection. Insufficient knowledge about the risk for influenza among pregnant women and their health care providers in China is an important barrier to increasing influenza vaccination coverage and treating influenza and its complications among pregnant women. Improved influenza incidence estimates might promote wider vaccine acceptance and higher vaccination coverage. In Suzhou, active population-based surveillance during October 2018-September 2023 estimated that the annual rate of hospitalization for acute respiratory or febrile illness (ARFI) among women who were pregnant or <2 weeks postpartum was 11.1 per 1,000 live births; the annual rate of laboratory-confirmed influenza-associated ARFI (influenza ARFI) hospitalization in this group was 2.1 per 1,000 live births. A majority of hospitalized pregnant or early postpartum patients with ARFI (82.6%; 2,588 of 3,133) or influenza ARFI (85.5%; 423 of 495) were admitted to obstetrics wards rather than respiratory medicine wards. Only one (0.03%) pregnant or postpartum ARFI patient had received influenza vaccination, and 31.3% of pregnant or postpartum women hospitalized for influenza ARFI received antiviral treatment; the lowest percentage of hospitalized women with influenza ARFI who received antiviral treatment was among women admitted to obstetrics and gynecology wards (29.6% and 23.1%, respectively), compared with 54.1% of those admitted to a respiratory medicine ward. These findings highlight the risk for influenza and its associated complications among pregnant and postpartum women, the low rates of influenza vaccination among pregnant women, and of antiviral treatment of women with ARFI admitted to obstetrics and gynecology wards. Increasing awareness of the prevalence of influenza ARFI among pregnant women, the use of empiric antiviral treatment for ARFI, and the infection control in obstetrics wards during influenza seasons might help reduce influenza-associated morbidity among pregnant and postpartum women.

BACKGROUND: We examined the added value of serologic testing for estimating influenza virus infection incidence based on illness surveillance with molecular testing versus periodic serologic testing. METHODS: Pregnant persons unvaccinated against influenza at <28 weeks gestation were enrolled before the 2017 and 2018 influenza seasons in Peru and Thailand. Blood specimens were collected at enrollment and ≤14 days postpartum for testing by hemagglutination inhibition assay for antibodies against influenza reference viruses. Seroconversion was defined as a ≥4-fold rise in antibody titers from enrollment to postpartum with the second specimen's titer of ≥40. Throughout pregnancy, participants responded to twice weekly surveillance contacts asking about influenza vaccination and influenza-like symptoms (ILS). A mid-turbinate swab was collected with each ILS episode for influenza real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR). RESULTS: Of 1,466 participants without evidence of influenza vaccination during pregnancy, 296 (20.2%) had evidence of influenza virus infections. Fifteen (5.1%) were detected by rRT-PCR only, 250 (84.4%) by serologic testing only, and 31 (10.5%) by both methods. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza virus infections during pregnancy occurred in 20% of cohort participants; >80% were not detected by a broad illness case definition coupled with rRT-PCR.

To reduce influenza-associated morbidity and mortality, countries in South America recommend annual influenza vaccination for persons at high risk for severe influenza illness, including young children, persons with preexisting health conditions, and older adults. Interim estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Southern Hemisphere countries can provide early information about the protective effects of vaccination and help guide Northern Hemisphere countries in advance of their season. Using data from a multicountry network, investigators estimated interim VE against influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) hospitalization using a test-negative case-control design. During March 13-July 19, 2024, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay identified 11,751 influenza-associated SARI cases; on average, 21.3% of patients were vaccinated against influenza, and the adjusted VE against hospitalization was 34.5%. The adjusted VE against the predominating subtype A(H3N2) was 36.5% and against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 37.1%. These interim VE estimates suggest that although the proportion of hospitalized patients who were vaccinated was modest, vaccination with the Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine significantly lowered the risk for hospitalization. Northern Hemisphere countries should, therefore, anticipate the need for robust influenza vaccination campaigns and early antiviral treatment to achieve optimal protection against influenza-associated complications.

BACKGROUND: Although healthcare personnel (HCP) are targeted for influenza vaccination they typically underutilize vaccines especially in low- and middle-income countries. We explored knowledge, attitudes, and practices of HCP about seasonal influenza vaccines (SIV) to identify factors associated with and modifiable barriers to SIV uptake. METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from cross-sectional surveys about SIV conducted among health workers in 12 low- and middle- income countries during 2018-2020 (i.e., Albania, Armenia, Cote d'Ivoire, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Lao PDR, Lebanon, Morocco, North Macedonia, Tunisia, Tajikistan, and Uganda). Eleven countries used a standard protocol and questionnaire based on the Health Belief Model to measure perceptions of susceptibility and severity of influenza disease, benefits of, barriers to, and motivators for vaccination. We analyzed attitudes and perceptions among HCP, including acceptance of vaccine for themselves and willingness to recommend vaccines to patients, grouped by the presence/absence of a national influenza vaccination program. Models were adjusted for geographic region. RESULTS: Our analysis included 10,281 HCP from 12 countries representing four of the six World Health Organization regions: African, Eastern Mediterranean, European, and Western Pacific. The sample was distributed across low income (LIC) (3,183, 31 %), lower-middle (LMIC) (4,744, 46 %), and upper-middle income (UMIC) (2,354, 23 %) countries. Half (50 %) of the countries included in the analysis reported SIV use among HCP in both the year of and the year preceding data collection while the remainder had no influenza vaccination program for HCP. Seventy-four percent (6,341) of HCP reported that they would be willing to be vaccinated if the vaccine was provided free of charge. HCP in LICs were willing to pay prices for SIV representing a higher percentage of their country's annual health expenditure per capita (6.26 % [interquartile range, IQR: 3.13-12.52]) compared to HCP in LMICs and UMICs. HCP in countries with no SIV program were also willing to pay a higher percentage for SIV (5.01 % [IQR: 2.24-8.34]) compared to HCP in countries with SIV programs.. Most (85 %) HCP in our analysis would recommend vaccines to their patients, and those who would accept vaccines for themselves were 3 times more likely to recommend vaccines to their patients (OR 3.1 [95 % CI 1·8, 5·2]). CONCLUSION: Increasing uptake of SIV among HCP can amplify positive impacts of vaccination by increasing the likelihood that HCP recommend vaccines to their patients. Successful strategies to achieve increased uptake of vaccines include clear guidance from health authorities, interventions based on behavior change models, and access to vaccine free-of-charge.

BackgroundHealthcare personnel (HCP) are at high risk for respiratory infections through occupational exposure to respiratory viruses.AimWe used data from a prospective influenza vaccine effectiveness study in HCP to quantify the incidence of acute respiratory infections (ARI) and their associated presenteeism and absenteeism.MethodsAt the start and end of each season, HCP at two Israeli hospitals provided serum to screen for antibodies to influenza virus using the haemagglutination inhibition assay. During the season, active monitoring for the development of ARI symptoms was conducted twice a week by RT-PCR testing of nasal swabs for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Workplace presenteeism and absenteeism were documented. We calculated incidences of influenza- and RSV-associated ARI and applied sampling weights to make estimates representative of the source population.ResultsThe median age of 2,505 participating HCP was 41 years, and 70% were female. Incidence was 9.1 per 100 person-seasons (95% CI: 5.8-14.2) for RT-PCR-confirmed influenza and 2.5 per 100 person-seasons (95% CI: 0.9-7.1) for RSV illness. Each season, 18-23% of unvaccinated and influenza-negative HCP seroconverted. The incidence of seroconversion or RT-PCR-confirmed influenza was 27.5 per 100 person-seasons (95% CI: 17.8-42.5). Work during illness occurred in 92% (95% CI: 91-93) of ARI episodes, absence from work in 38% (95% CI: 36-40).ConclusionInfluenza virus and RSV infections and associated presenteeism and absenteeism were common among HCP. Improving vaccination uptake among HCP, infection control, and encouraging sick HCP to stay home are important strategies to reduce ARI incidence and decrease the risk of in-hospital transmission.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh carries a substantial health and economic burden of seasonal influenza, particularly among the World Health Organization (WHO)-defined high-risk populations. We implemented a modelling study to determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in each of five high-risk groups (pregnant women, children under five years of age, adults with underlying health conditions, older adults (≥60 years), and healthcare personnel) to inform policy decisions on risk group prioritisation for influenza vaccination in Bangladesh. METHODS: We implemented a Markov decision-analytic model to estimate the impact of influenza vaccination for each target risk group. We obtained model inputs from hospital-based influenza surveillance data, unpublished surveys, and published literature (preferentially from studies in Bangladesh, followed by regional and global ones). We used quality-adjusted life years (QALY) as the health outcome of interest. We also estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each risk group by comparing the costs and QALY of vaccinating compared to not vaccinating each group, where the ICER represents the additional cost needed to achieve one year of additional QALY from a given intervention. We considered a willingness-to-pay threshold (ICER) of less than one gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as highly cost-effective and of one to three times GDP per capita as cost-effective (per WHO standard). For Bangladesh, this threshold ranges between USD 2462 and USD 7386. RESULTS: The estimated ICERs were USD -99, USD -87, USD -4, USD 792, and USD 229 per QALY gained for healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), children aged less than five years, adults with comorbid conditions, and pregnant women, respectively. For all risk groups, ICERs were below the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold for Bangladesh. Vaccinating pregnant women and adults with comorbid conditions was highly cost-effective per additional life year gained, while vaccinating healthcare personnel, older adults (≥60), and children under five years were cost-saving per additional life year gained. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza vaccination to all target risk groups in Bangladesh would be either cost-saving or cost-effective, per WHO guidelines of GDP-based thresholds.

BACKGROUND: Global influenza-associated acute respiratory infections contribute to 3-5 million severe illnesses requiring hospitalization annually, with 90% of hospitalizations occurring among children < 5 years in developing countries. In Bangladesh, the inadequate availability of nationally representative, robust estimates of influenza-associated hospitalizations limits allocation of resources for prevention and control measures. METHODS: This study used data from the hospital-based influenza surveillance (HBIS) system in Bangladesh from 2010 to 2019 and healthcare utilization surveys to determine hospital utilization patterns in the catchment area. We estimated annual influenza-associated hospitalization numbers and rates for all age groups in Bangladesh using WHO methods, adjusted for a 6-day-a-week enrollment schedule, selective testing of specimens from children under five, and healthcare-seeking behavior, based on the proportion of symptomatic community participants seeking healthcare within the past week. We then estimated national hospitalization rates by multiplying age-specific hospitalization rates with the corresponding annual national census population. RESULTS: Annual influenza-associated hospitalization rates per 100,000 population for all ages ranged from 31 (95% CI: 27-36) in 2011 to 139 (95% CI: 130-149) in 2019. Children < 5 years old had the highest rates of influenza-associated hospitalization, ranging from 114 (95% CI: 90-138) in 2011 to 529 (95% CI: 481-578) in 2019, followed by adults aged ≥ 65 years with rates ranging from 46 (95% CI: 34-57) in 2012 to 252 (95% CI: 213-292) in 2019. The national hospitalization estimates for all ages during 2010-2019 ranged from 47,891 to 236,380 per year. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of influenza-associated hospitalizations in Bangladesh may be considerable, particularly for young children and older adults. Targeted interventions, such as influenza vaccination for these age groups, should be prioritized and evaluated.

INTRODUCTION: Despite a longstanding Israel Ministry of Health recommendation that all healthcare personnel (HCP) receive a seasonal influenza vaccine, vaccine uptake among HCP remains below the country's target of 60% coverage. To understand factors related to vaccine hesitancy, we used data from a prospective three-year (2016-2019) influenza vaccine effectiveness study among Israeli HCP to examine knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about influenza vaccination and their association with vaccine uptake. METHODS: At the start of each influenza season, all participating HCP completed a questionnaire that included questions about socio-demographic and occupational characteristics, health status, and KAP related to seasonal influenza vaccination. We extracted vaccination history from electronic medical records and employee vaccination registries. We used logistic regression models to identify demographic and occupational factors, and KAP about influenza vaccination, associated with receipt of vaccination. RESULT: A total of 2,126 HCP were enrolled and had available data on vaccination history. Their median age was 42 years [IQR 35-52], and 73 % self-identified as female. Influenza vaccine uptake in 2016, 2017 and 2018 was 46 %, 48 % and 47 %, respectively. Overall, 36 % of HCP had received an influenza vaccine in ≥ 4 of the eight years prior. HCP aged 35-49 years were less likely to receive influenza vaccine compared to HCP aged ≥ 50 years (OR: 0.81 [95 % CI: 0.67-0.98]). Nurses and allied personnel were less likely to receive influenza vaccine compared to physicians (OR: 0.63 [95 % CI: 0.50-0.78] and OR: 0.53 [95 % CI: 0.40-0.70], respectively). The emotional benefit of vaccination (e.g., anticipating regret if not vaccinated) and the perception of vaccine safety were factors associated with vaccine uptake (OR: 7.60 [95 % CI: 6.27-9.22] and OR: 3.43 [95 % CI:2.91-4.03], respectively). CONCLUSION: Among HCP at two hospitals in Israel, less than half received an annual influenza vaccine. Older HCP, physicians, and those who reported the emotional benefit of vaccination or agreed that influenza vaccines are safe were more likely to be vaccinated. Future influenza vaccination campaigns could focus on these demographic groups and tailor messages emphasizing the emotional benefits of vaccination and vaccine safety to increase seasonal influenza vaccine uptake among HCP in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exists regarding risk factors for adverse outcomes in older adults hospitalized with Community-Acquired Pneumonia (CAP) in low- and middle-income countries such as India. This multisite study aimed to assess outcomes and associated risk factors among adults aged ≥60 years hospitalized with pneumonia. METHODS: Between December 2018 and March 2020, we enrolled ≥60-year-old adults admitted within 48 hours for CAP treatment across 16 public and private facilities in four sites. Clinical data and nasal/oropharyngeal specimens were collected by trained nurses and tested for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other respiratory viruses (ORV) using the qPCR. Participants were evaluated regularly until discharge, as well as on the 7th and 30th days post-discharge. Outcomes included ICU admission and in-hospital or 30-day post-discharge mortality. A hierarchical framework for multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models identified risk factors (e.g., demographics, clinical features, etiologic agents) associated with critical care or death. FINDINGS: Of 1,090 CAP patients, the median age was 69 years; 38.4% were female. Influenza viruses were detected in 12.3%, RSV in 2.2%, and ORV in 6.3% of participants. Critical care was required for 39.4%, with 9.9% in-hospital mortality and 5% 30-day post-discharge mortality. Only 41% of influenza CAP patients received antiviral treatment. Admission factors independently associated with ICU admission included respiratory rate >30/min, blood urea nitrogen>19mg/dl, altered sensorium, anemia, oxygen saturation <90%, prior cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and private hospital admission. Diabetes, anemia, low oxygen saturation at admission, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation were associated with 30-day mortality. CONCLUSION: High ICU admission and 30-day mortality rates were observed among older adults with pneumonia, with a significant proportion linked to influenza and RSV infections. Comprehensive guidelines for CAP prevention and management in older adults are needed, especially with the co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) is essential to monitor the performance of vaccines and generate strategic information to guide decision making. We pooled data from six Latin American countries to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 hospitalisation during three different pandemic waves from February 2021 to September 2022. METHODS: We used a test-negative case-control design in hospitalised adults in Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Paraguay, and Uruguay. We estimated adjusted VE by age group (18-64 and ≥65 years), vaccine type and product for primary series vaccination and booster vaccination and by time since last dose during the Omicron variant dominant period. We used mixed effects logistic regression models adjusting for sex, age, week of onset of symptom onset and pre-existing conditions with country fit as a random effect term. FINDINGS: We included 15,241 severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) patients in the analysis. Among adults 18-64 years, VE estimates for primary series vaccination during pre-Delta and Delta periods ranged by product from 66.5% to 95.1% and from 33.5% to 88.2% for older adults. During the Omicron period, VE estimates for primary series were lower and decreased by time since last vaccination, but VE increased to between 26.4% and 57.4% when a booster was administered. INTERPRETATION: mRNA and viral vector vaccines presented higher VE for both primary series and booster. While VE decreased over time, protection against severe COVID-19-associated hospitalisation increased when booster doses were administered. Vaccination with additional doses should be recommended, particularly for persons at increased risk of developing severe COVID-19. FUNDING: This work was supported by a grant from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through cooperative agreements with the Pan American Health Organization/World Health Organization.

BACKGROUND: Estimating the burden of disease averted by vaccination can assist policymakers to implement, adjust, and communicate the value of vaccination programs. Demonstrating the use of a newly available modeling tool, we estimated the burden of influenza illnesses averted by seasonal influenza vaccination in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru during 2011-2017 among two influenza vaccine target populations: children aged 6-23 months and pregnant women. METHODS: We derived model inputs, including incidence, vaccine coverage, vaccine effectiveness, and multipliers from publicly available country-level influenza surveillance data and cohort studies. We also estimated changes in illnesses averted when countries' vaccine coverage was achieved using four different vaccine deployment strategies. RESULTS: Among children aged 6-23 months, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 2,161 hospitalizations, 81,907 medically-attended illnesses, and 126,987 overall illnesses during the study period, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.3 % to 12.5 %. Among pregnant women, influenza vaccination averted an estimated cumulative 173 hospitalizations, 6,122 medically attended illnesses, and 16,412 overall illnesses, with a prevented fraction ranging from 0.2 % to 10.9 %. Compared to an influenza vaccine campaign with equal vaccine distribution during March-June, scenarios in which total cumulative coverage was achieved in March and April consistently resulted in the greatest increase in averted illness (23 %-3,129 % increase among young children and 22 %-3,260 % increase among pregnant women). DISCUSSION: Influenza vaccination campaigns in El Salvador, Panama, and Peru conducted between 2011 and 2018 prevented hundreds to thousands of influenza-associated hospitalizations and illnesses in young children and pregnant women. Existing vaccination programs could prevent additional illnesses, using the same number of vaccines, by achieving the highest possible coverage within the first two months of an influenza vaccine campaign.

Background: Enhancing outcomes post-hospitalisation requires an understanding of predictive factors for adverse events. This study aimed to estimate post-discharge mortality rates among patients with severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) in Bangladesh, identify associated factors, and document reported causes of death. Methods: From January 2012 to December 2019, we conducted follow-up calls to patients or their families 30 days after discharge to assess the status of patients with SARI. Proportions of deaths within 30 days of discharge were estimated, and a comparative analysis of demographics, clinical characteristics, and influenza illness between decedents and survivors was performed using multivariable Cox regression models. Findings: Among 23,360 patients with SARI (median age: 20 years, IQR: 1.5–48, 65% male), 351 (1.5%) died during hospitalisation. Of 23,009 patients alive at discharge, 20,044 (87%) were followed, with 633 (3.2%) deaths within 30 days of discharge. In children (<18 years), difficulty breathing (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.8; 95% CI 1.1–3.0), longer hospital stay (aHR 1.1; 95% CI 1.1–1.1), and heart diseases (aHR 8.5; 95% CI 3.2–23.1) were associated with higher post-discharge death risk. Among adults (≥18 years), difficulty breathing (aHR 2.3; 95% CI 1.7–3.0), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (aHR 1.7; 95% CI 1.4–2.2), and intensive care unit admission (aHR 5.2; 95% CI 1.9–14.0) were linked to elevated post-discharge death risk. Influenza virus was detected in 13% (46/351) of in-hospital SARI deaths and 10% (65/633) of post-discharge SARI deaths. Interpretation: Nearly one in twenty patients with SARI died during hospitalisation or within 1 month of discharge, with two-thirds of deaths occurring post-discharge. Seasonal influenza vaccination is recommended to mitigate influenza-associated mortality. To enhance post-discharge outcomes, hospitals should consider developing safe-discharge algorithms, reinforcing post-discharge care plans, and establishing outpatient monitoring for recently discharged patients. Funding: Centers for Disease Control and (CDC), Atlanta, Georgia, USA [U01GH002259]. © 2024 The Author(s)

BACKGROUND: An increasing number of studies have described new and persistent symptoms and conditions as potential post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC). However, it remains unclear whether certain symptoms or conditions occur more frequently among persons with SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those never infected with SARS-CoV-2. We compared the occurrence of specific COVID-associated symptoms and conditions as potential PASC 31- to 150-day following a SARS-CoV-2 test among adults and children with positive and negative test results. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record (EHR) data from 43 PCORnet sites participating in a national COVID-19 surveillance program. This study included 3,091,580 adults (316,249 SARS-CoV-2 positive; 2,775,331 negative) and 675,643 children (62,131 positive; 613,512 negative) who had a SARS-CoV-2 laboratory test during March 1, 2020-May 31, 2021 documented in their EHR. We used logistic regression to calculate the odds of having a symptom and Cox models to calculate the risk of having a newly diagnosed condition associated with a SARS-CoV-2 positive test. RESULTS: After adjustment for baseline covariates, hospitalized adults and children with a positive test had increased odds of being diagnosed with ≥ 1 symptom (adults: adjusted odds ratio[aOR], 1.17[95% CI, 1.11-1.23]; children: aOR, 1.18[95% CI, 1.08-1.28]) or shortness of breath (adults: aOR, 1.50[95% CI, 1.38-1.63]; children: aOR, 1.40[95% CI, 1.15-1.70]) 31-150 days following a SARS-CoV-2 test compared with hospitalized individuals with a negative test. Hospitalized adults with a positive test also had increased odds of being diagnosed with ≥ 3 symptoms or fatigue compared with those testing negative. The risks of being newly diagnosed with type 1 or type 2 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio[aHR], 1.25[95% CI, 1.17-1.33]), hematologic disorders (aHR, 1.19[95% CI, 1.11-1.28]), or respiratory disease (aHR, 1.44[95% CI, 1.30-1.60]) were higher among hospitalized adults with a positive test compared with those with a negative test. Non-hospitalized adults with a positive test also had higher odds or increased risk of being diagnosed with certain symptoms or conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially those who were hospitalized, were at higher risk of being diagnosed with certain symptoms and conditions after acute infection.

Characterisation of influenza viruses in the southern hemisphere can guide local response and provide insights to northern hemisphere jurisdictions about their upcoming influenza season.1,2 Here, we present the information on 2023 end of influenza season in the southern hemisphere about influenza lineages, incidence of medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza cases, and influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the antigen from surveillance clinics and a hospital in San Juan de Lurigancho and San Martin de Porres, the two most populated districts of Peru. | | From Jan 1 to Sept 30, 2023, surveillance nurses sought individuals with COVID-19-like illness (CLI) of any age seeking care at outpatient sentinel sites between Monday and Saturday. CLI was defined as presenting with at least two of the following symptoms or signs—fever, chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, or sore throat for not more than 7 days from illness onset.3 On March 7, 2023, the nurses expanded their search to CLI cases hospitalised for not more than 72 h at Cayetano Heredia National Hospital. | | Nurses obtained written consent to survey and swab CLI cases. Enrolled participants provided information on pre-existing conditions and influenza vaccination status. Individuals targeted for vaccination by Peru and vaccinated between Jan and Sept 2022, more than 14 days before enrolment, were considered vaccinated (appendix p 1).

BACKGROUND: Historically, lack of data on cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination has been identified as a barrier to vaccine use in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations describing (1) costs of influenza illness; (2) costs of influenza vaccination programs; and (3) vaccination cost-effectiveness from low- and middle-income countries to assess if gaps persist that could hinder global implementation of influenza vaccination programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed a systematic search in Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and Scopus in January 2022 and October 2023 using a combination of the following key words: "influenza" AND "cost" OR "economic." The search included studies with publication years 2012 through 2022. Studies were eligible if they (1) presented original, peer-reviewed findings on cost of illness, cost of vaccination program, or cost-effectiveness of vaccination for seasonal influenza; and (2) included data for at least 1 low- or middle-income country. We abstracted general study characteristics and data specific to each of the 3 study types. Of 54 included studies, 26 presented data on cost-effectiveness, 24 on cost-of-illness, and 5 on program costs. Represented countries were classified as upper-middle income (UMIC; n = 12), lower-middle income (LMIC; n = 7), and low-income (LIC; n = 3). The most evaluated target groups were children (n = 26 studies), older adults (n = 17), and persons with chronic medical conditions (n = 12); fewer studies evaluated pregnant persons (n = 9), healthcare workers (n = 5), and persons in congregate living settings (n = 1). Costs-of-illness were generally higher in UMICs than in LMICs/LICs; however, the highest national economic burden, as a percent of gross domestic product and national health expenditure, was reported from an LIC. Among studies that evaluated the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine introduction, most (88%) interpreted at least 1 scenario per target group as either cost-effective or cost-saving, based on thresholds designated in the study. Key limitations of this work included (1) heterogeneity across included studies; (2) restrictiveness of the inclusion criteria used; and (3) potential for missed influenza burden from use of sentinel surveillance systems. CONCLUSIONS: The 54 studies identified in this review suggest an increased momentum to generate economic evidence about influenza illness and vaccination from low- and middle-income countries during 2012 to 2022. However, given that we observed substantial heterogeneity, continued evaluation of the economic burden of influenza illness and costs/cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination, particularly in LICs and among underrepresented target groups (e.g., healthcare workers and pregnant persons), is needed. Use of standardized methodology could facilitate pooling across settings and knowledge sharing to strengthen global influenza vaccination programs.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies explored which pathogens drive the global burden of pneumonia hospitalizations among young children. However, the etiology of broader acute lower respiratory tract infections (ALRIs) remains unclear. METHODS: Using a multicountry study (Albania, Jordan, Nicaragua, and the Philippines) of hospitalized infants and non-ill community controls between 2015 and 2017, we assessed the prevalence and severity of viral infections and coinfections. We also estimated the proportion of ALRI hospitalizations caused by 21 respiratory pathogens identified via multiplex real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction with bayesian nested partially latent class models. RESULTS: An overall 3632 hospitalized infants and 1068 non-ill community controls participated in the study and had specimens tested. Among hospitalized infants, 1743 (48.0%) met the ALRI case definition for the etiology analysis. After accounting for the prevalence in non-ill controls, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was responsible for the largest proportion of ALRI hospitalizations, although the magnitude varied across sites-ranging from 65.2% (95% credible interval, 46.3%-79.6%) in Albania to 34.9% (95% credible interval, 20.0%-49.0%) in the Philippines. While the fraction of ALRI hospitalizations caused by RSV decreased as age increased, it remained the greatest driver. After RSV, rhinovirus/enterovirus (range, 13.4%-27.1%) and human metapneumovirus (range, 6.3%-12.0%) were the next-highest contributors to ALRI hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: We observed substantial numbers of ALRI hospitalizations, with RSV as the largest source, particularly in infants aged <3 months. This underscores the potential for vaccines and long-lasting monoclonal antibodies on the horizon to reduce the burden of ALRI in infants worldwide.

INTRODUCTION: Advocacy for the provision of public health resources, including vaccine for the prevention of acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) among older adults in India, needs evidence on costs and benefits. Using a cohort of community-dwelling adults aged 60 years and older in India, we estimated the cost of ARI episode and its determinants. METHODS: We enrolled 6016 participants in Ballabgarh, Chennai, Kolkata and Pune from July 2018 to March 2020. They were followed up weekly to identify ARI and classified them as acute upper respiratory illness (AURI) or pneumonia based on clinical features based on British Thoracic Society guidelines. All pneumonia and 20% of AURI cases were asked about the cost incurred on medical consultation, investigation, medications, transportation, food and lodging. The cost of services at public facilities was supplemented by WHO-Choosing Interventions that are Cost-Effective(CHOICE) estimates for 2019. Indirect costs incurred by the affected participant and their caregivers were estimated using human capital approach. We used generalised linear model with log link and gamma family to identify the average marginal effect of key determinants of the total cost of ARI. RESULTS: We included 2648 AURI and 1081 pneumonia episodes. Only 47% (range 36%-60%) of the participants with pneumonia sought care. The mean cost of AURI episode was US$13.9, while that of pneumonia episode was US$25.6, with indirect costs comprising three-fourths of the total. The cost was higher among older men by US$3.4 (95% CI: 1.4 to 5.3), those with comorbidities by US$4.3 (95% CI: 2.8 to 5.7) and those who sought care by US$17.2 (95% CI: 15.1 to 19.2) but not by influenza status. The mean per capita annual cost of respiratory illness was US$29.5. CONCLUSION: Given the high community disease and cost burden of ARI, intensifying public health interventions to prevent and mitigate ARI among this fast-growing older adult population in India is warranted.

Since 2004, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Influenza Division (ID) has supported seven countries in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean to establish and strengthen influenza surveillance. The substantial growth of influenza surveillance capacities in the region demonstrates a commitment by governments to strengthen national programs and contribute to global surveillance. The full value of surveillance data is in its use to guide local public health decisions. CDC ID remains committed to supporting the region and supporting partners to translate surveillance data into policies and programs effectively.

BACKGROUND: We explored whether hospital-based surveillance is useful in detecting severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) clusters and how often these events result in outbreak investigation and community mitigation. METHODS: During May 2009-December 2020, physicians at 14 sentinel hospitals prospectively identified SARI clusters (i.e., ≥2 SARI cases who developed symptoms ≤10 days of each other and lived <30 min walk or <3 km from each other). Oropharyngeal and nasopharyngeal swabs were tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR). We describe the demographic of persons within clusters, laboratory results, and outbreak investigations. RESULTS: Field staff identified 464 clusters comprising 1427 SARI cases (range 0-13 clusters per month). Sixty percent of clusters had three, 23% had two, and 17% had ≥4 cases. Their median age was 2 years (inter-quartile range [IQR] 0.4-25) and 63% were male. Laboratory results were available for the 464 clusters with a median of 9 days (IQR = 6-13 days) after cluster identification. Less than one in five clusters had cases that tested positive for the same virus: respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in 58 (13%), influenza viruses in 24 (5%), human metapneumovirus (HMPV) in five (1%), human parainfluenza virus (HPIV) in three (0.6%), adenovirus in two (0.4%). While 102/464 (22%) had poultry exposure, none tested positive for influenza A (H5N1) or A (H7N9). None of the 464 clusters led to field deployments for outbreak response. CONCLUSIONS: For 11 years, none of the hundreds of identified clusters led to an emergency response. The value of this event-based surveillance might be improved by seeking larger clusters, with stronger epidemiologic ties or decedents.

What is already known about this topic? | | Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine varies by season and circulating virus type. | | What is added by this report? | | The 2023 Southern Hemisphere seasonal influenza vaccine reduced the risk for influenza-associated hospitalizations by 52%. Circulating influenza viruses were genetically similar to those targeted by the 2023–24 Northern Hemisphere influenza vaccine formulation. This vaccine might offer similar protection if these viruses predominate during the coming Northern Hemisphere influenza season. | | What are the implications for public health practice? | | Vaccination remains one of the most effective ways to protect against influenza-associated complications. In anticipation of Northern Hemisphere influenza virus circulation, CDC recommends that health authorities encourage U.S. health care providers to administer seasonal influenza vaccine to all eligible persons aged ≥6 months.

BACKGROUND: Uncertainty about risk of illness and the value of influenza vaccines negatively affects vaccine uptake among persons targeted for influenza vaccination. METHODS: During 2016-2019, we followed a cohort of healthcare personnel (HCP) targeted for free-of-charge influenza vaccination in five Lima hospitals to quantify risk of influenza, workplace presenteeism (coming to work despite illness), and absenteeism (taking time off from work because of illness). The HCP who developed acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) (≥1 of acute cough, runny nose, body aches, or feverishness) were tested for influenza using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (rt-PCR). FINDINGS: The cohort (2968 HCP) contributed 950,888 person-days. Only 36 (6%) of 605 HCP who participated every year were vaccinated. The HCP had 5750 ARI and 147 rt-PCR-confirmed influenza illnesses. The weighted incidence of laboratory-confirmed influenza was 10.0/100 person-years; 37% used antibiotics, and 0.7% used antivirals to treat these illnesses. The HCP with laboratory-confirmed influenza were present at work while ill for a cumulative 1187 hours. INTERPRETATION: HCP were frequently ill and often worked rather than stayed at home while ill. Our findings suggest the need for continuing medical education about the risk of influenza and benefits of vaccination and stay-at-home-while-ill policies.

BACKGROUND: Interpreting rRT-PCR results for human avian influenza A virus (AIV) detection in contaminated settings like live bird markets (LBMs) without serology or viral culture poses a challenge. METHODS: During February-March 2012 and November 2012-February 2013, we screened workers at nine LBMs in Dhaka, Bangladesh to confirm molecular detections of AIV RNA in respiratory specimens with serology. We tested nasopharyngeal (NP) and throat swabs from workers with influenza-like-illness (ILI) and NP, throat, and arm swabs from asymptomatic workers for influenza virus by rRT-PCR and sera for seroconversion and antibodies against HPAI A(H5N1) and A(H9N2) viruses. RESULTS: Among 1,273 ILI cases, 34 (2.6%) had A(H5), 56 (4%) had A(H9), and 6 (0.4%) had both A(H5) and A(H9) detected by rRT-PCR. Of 192 asymptomatic workers, A(H5) was detected in 8 (4%) NP and 38 (20%) arm swabs. Of 28 ILI cases with A(H5) or A(H9) detected, none had evidence of seroconversion, but 1 (3.5%) and 12 (43%), were seropositive for A(H5) and A(H9), respectively. CONCLUSION: Detection of AIV RNA in respiratory specimens from symptomatic and asymptomatic LBM workers without evidence of seroconversion or virus isolation suggests environmental contamination, emphasizing caution in interpreting rRT-PCR results in high viral load settings.

BACKGROUND: Avian influenza (AI) virus detections occurred frequently in 2022 and continue to pose a health, economic, and food security risk. The most recent global analysis of official reports of animal outbreaks and human infections with all reportable AI viruses was published almost a decade ago. Increased or renewed reports of AI viruses, especially high pathogenicity H5N8 and H5N1 in birds and H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 in humans globally, have established the need for a comprehensive review of current global AI virus surveillance data to assess the pandemic risk of AI viruses. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to provide an analysis of global AI animal outbreak and human case surveillance information from the last decade by describing the circulating virus subtypes, regions and temporal trends in reporting, and country characteristics associated with AI virus outbreak reporting in animals; surveillance and reporting gaps for animals and humans are identified. METHODS: We analyzed AI virus infection reports among animals and humans submitted to animal and public health authorities from January 2013 to June 2022 and compared them with reports from January 2005 to December 2012. A multivariable regression analysis was used to evaluate associations between variables of interest and reported AI virus animal outbreaks. RESULTS: From 2013 to 2022, 52.2% (95/182) of World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) Member Countries identified 34 AI virus subtypes during 21,249 outbreaks. The most frequently reported subtypes were high pathogenicity AI H5N1 (10,079/21,249, 47.43%) and H5N8 (6722/21,249, 31.63%). A total of 10 high pathogenicity AI and 6 low pathogenicity AI virus subtypes were reported to the WOAH for the first time during 2013-2022. AI outbreaks in animals occurred in 26 more Member Countries than reported in the previous 8 years. Decreasing World Bank income classification was significantly associated with decreases in reported AI outbreaks (P<.001-.02). Between January 2013 and June 2022, 17/194 (8.8%) World Health Organization (WHO) Member States reported 2000 human AI virus infections of 10 virus subtypes. H7N9 (1568/2000, 78.40%) and H5N1 (254/2000, 12.70%) viruses accounted for the most human infections. As many as 8 of these 17 Member States did not report a human case prior to 2013. Of 1953 human cases with available information, 74.81% (n=1461) had a known animal exposure before onset of illness. The median time from illness onset to the notification posted on the WHO event information site was 15 days (IQR 9-30 days; mean 24 days). Seasonality patterns of animal outbreaks and human infections with AI viruses were very similar, occurred year-round, and peaked during November through May. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that AI outbreaks are more frequently reported and geographically widespread than in the past. Global surveillance gaps include inconsistent reporting from all regions and human infection reporting delays. Continued monitoring for AI virus outbreaks in animals and human infections with AI viruses is crucial for pandemic preparedness.