OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of testing and treatment for Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection among Asian and Hispanic persons with diagnosed diabetes in the United States. METHODS: We estimated population size and Mtb infection prevalence for Asian and Hispanic persons aged ≥15 years with diagnosed, non-gestational diabetes, by age and US-born-status. We assumed a one-time test for Mtb infection intervention, with positive-testing persons offered treatment. Using a deterministic, transmission-dynamic model of TB in the United States, we estimated costs, TB cases and deaths averted, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) gained under the intervention compared to no-intervention. We estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), calculated as costs per QALY-gained, from a TB health services perspective, including diagnosis and treatment for TB infection and disease. We also assessed health services and societal perspectives. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals via probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: TB cases averted per 100,000 persons tested ranged from 7.5 (95% uncertainty interval: 6.9-8.1) among US-born Hispanic persons to 238.9 (225.2-254.3) among non-US-born Asian persons. TB deaths averted per 100,000 persons tested ranged from 1.3 (1.2-1.4) among US-born Hispanic persons to 53.7 (51.4-56.1) among non-US-born Asian persons. ICERs for US-born Asian and Hispanic populations were $856,671 ($533,506-$1,234,032) and $1,081,646 ($673,142-$1,551,264), respectively. ICERs for non-US-born Asian and Hispanic populations were lower: $66,664 ($41,456-$93,625) and $68,749 ($43,136-$97,044), respectively. ICERs were 2-19% higher under a societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: While the intervention produced health benefits for all populations assessed, health benefits were greater-and ICERs more favorable-for non-US-born Asian and Hispanic populations with diagnosed-diabetes.

Outbreak investigation is an essential component of tuberculosis (TB) control in the United States, but its epidemiologic impact and cost-effectiveness have not been quantified. We modeled outbreak investigation activities in the United States during 2023-2032 and estimated corresponding epidemiologic impact, economic costs (in 2022 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios from the healthcare system perspective (cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year gained). We projected that outbreak investigations would result in 1,030,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 376,000-1,740,000) contacts investigated, leading to 4,130 (95% UI 1,420-7,640) TB diagnoses and 104,000 (95% UI 37,600-181,000) latent TB infection diagnoses, at a total cost of US $219 million (95% UI $80-$387 million). We estimated that 5,560 (95% UI 1,720-11,400) TB cases would be averted through early detection and treatment, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of outbreak investigations, compared with no outbreak investigations, was $27,800 per quality-adjusted life-year gained (95% UI $4,580-$68,700).

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) notifications and deaths in the United States fluctuated substantially during the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyzed multiple data sources to understand the factors contributing to these changes and estimated future TB trends. METHODS: We identified four mechanisms potentially contributing to observed TB trends during 2020-2023: immigration, respiratory contact rates, rates of accurate diagnosis and treatment initiation, and mortality rates for persons experiencing TB disease. We employed a Bayesian approach to synthesize evidence on how these mechanisms changed during the pandemic and how they might have combined to produce observed 2020-2023 TB data, using a transmission-dynamic model to link mechanisms to TB outcomes. We also simulated a no-pandemic-counterfactual scenario that assumed mechanisms followed pre-pandemic trends. We estimated TB outcomes associated with the pandemic until 2035 to capture lagged effects. We evaluated additional scenarios to estimate the individual effect of each mechanism. RESULTS: Over 2020-2035, we estimate an additional 2,784 (95% uncertainty interval: 2,164-3,461) TB notifications and 1,138 (1,076-1,201) TB deaths in the United States associated with changes occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mechanisms had offsetting effects - decreases in TB diagnosis rates led to more TB deaths and notifications, while reductions in contact rates reduced TB deaths and notifications. Immigration changes initially reduced TB deaths, but increased deaths and notifications over time. Higher TB mortality rates increased TB deaths, but decreased TB notifications. CONCLUSIONS: While direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred between 2020-2023, these changes may continue to influence TB incidence and mortality in future years.

RATIONALE: Individuals surviving TB disease may experience chronic sequelae that reduce survival and quality-of-life. These post-TB sequalae are not generally considered in estimates of the health impact of TB disease. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the TB-attributable reductions in life expectancy and quality-adjusted life expectancy for individuals developing TB disease in the United States, including post-TB sequelae. METHODS: We extracted national surveillance data on individuals diagnosed with TB during 2015-2019, including demographics, vital status at diagnosis, treatment duration, treatment outcome, and co-prevalent conditions. Using a mathematical model we simulated life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for the TB cohort, as compared to a no-TB counterfactual (same distribution of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and co-prevalent conditions as the TB cohort but without TB-attributable mortality and disutility). We disaggregated results to report the proportion due to post-TB sequelae, and stratified outcomes by age, sex, and race. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Estimated life expectancy after TB diagnosis was 30.3 (95% uncertainty interval: 29.9, 30.7) years for the TB cohort versus 32.3 (31.9, 32.7) without TB, a difference of 2.03 (1.84, 2.21) years and 1.93 (1.69, 2.18) QALYs. Life-years lost were greatest for 65-74-year-olds versus other age groups, for men versus women, and for American Indian or Alaska Native individuals versus persons from other race/ethnicities. Overall, 41% (35, 46) of life-years and 48% (42, 54) of QALYs lost were estimated to result from post-TB sequelae. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, a substantial fraction of the life-years and QALYs lost from TB are attributable to post-TB sequelae. Evidence is needed on approaches to prevent and repair post-TB lung damage, in the context of frequent co-prevalent health conditions.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, older adults have elevated prevalence of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) and incidence of tuberculosis (TB). OBJECTIVE: To estimate the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of LTBI testing and treatment among the Medicare-eligible population. DESIGN: Model-based cost-effectiveness analysis. DATA SOURCES: Nationally representative surveys and published evidence. TARGET POPULATION: Medicare-eligible persons aged 65 years or older with at least 1 of 15 factors associated with elevated TB risk, as identified by guidelines from the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) and other organizations. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Societal. INTERVENTION: One-time offer of LTBI testing and treatment versus no intervention. OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime TB cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: In 2022, there were an estimated 29.9 million Medicare-eligible persons (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 28.4 to 31.6 million persons) aged 65 years or older with elevated TB risks, including 14.7 million (95% UI, 13.4 to 16.0 million) with USPSTF-recommended factors. In the target population, 4.9 million persons (95% UI, 4.0 to 5.8 million persons) (16.4% [95% UI, 13.9% to 19.1%]) were estimated to have LTBI. Testing and treatment of LTBI was estimated to prevent 10 946 TB cases (95% UI, 4684 to 20 579 cases) and 2579 TB deaths (95% UI, 1106 to 4882 deaths), with 13 234 lifetime QALYs (95% UI, 5343 to 25 519 lifetime QALYs) gained. For the overall target population and for persons with USPSTF-recommended factors, ICERs were $192 000 (95% UI, $92 000 to $503 000) and $155 000 (95% UI, $77 000 to $393 000) per QALY gained, respectively. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: The ICER was $109 000 (95% UI, $49 000 to $285 000) per QALY gained for 65-year-olds newly eligible for Medicare. LIMITATION: Health benefits from averted post-TB sequelae were not estimated. CONCLUSION: Medicare-eligible persons represent approximately one third of all U.S. persons with LTBI. Testing and treatment of LTBI in this population could lead to substantial reductions in TB and TB-related mortality, particularly among 65-year-olds newly eligible for Medicare. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

IMPORTANCE: Despite significant progress made toward tuberculosis (TB) elimination, racial and ethnic disparities persist in TB incidence and case-fatality rates in the US. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the health outcomes and economic cost of TB disparities among US-born persons from 2023 to 2035. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Generalized additive regression models projecting trends in TB incidence and case-fatality rates from 2023 to 2035 were fit based on national TB surveillance data for 2010 to 2019 in the 50 US states and the District of Columbia among US-born persons. This baseline scenario was compared with alternative scenarios in which racial and ethnic disparities in age- and sex-adjusted incidence and case-fatality rates were eliminated by setting rates for each race and ethnicity to goal values. Additional scenarios were created examining the potential outcomes of delayed reduction of racial and ethnic disparities. The potential benefits of eliminating disparities from differences between baseline and alternative scenario outcomes were quantified. Data were analyzed from January 2010 to December 2019. EXPOSURES: Non-Hispanic American Indian or Alaska Native, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander, or non-Hispanic White race and ethnicity. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: TB cases and deaths averted, quality-adjusted life years gained, and associated costs from a societal perspective. RESULTS: The study included 31 811 persons with reported TB from 2010 to 2019 (mean [SD] age, 47 [24] years; 20 504 [64%] male; 1179 [4%] American Indian or Alaska Native persons; 1332 [4%] Asian persons; 12 152 [38%] Black persons; 6595 [21%] Hispanic persons; 299 [1%] Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander persons; and 10 254 [32%] White persons). There were 3722 persons with a reported TB death. Persistent racial and ethnic disparities were associated with an estimated 11 901 of 26 203 TB cases among US-born persons (45%; 95% uncertainty interval [UI], 44%-47%), 1421 of 3264 TB deaths among US-born persons (44%; 95% UI, 39%-48%), and an economic cost of $914 (95% UI, $675-$1147) million from 2023 to 2035. Delayed goal attainment reduced the estimated avertable TB outcomes by 505 (95% UI, 495-518) TB cases, 55 (95% UI, 51-59) TB deaths, and $32 (95% UI, $24-$40) million in societal costs annually. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this modeling study of racial and ethnic disparities of TB, these disparities were associated with substantial future health and economic outcomes of TB among US-born persons without interventions beyond current efforts. Actions to eliminate disparities may reduce the excess TB burden among these persons and may contribute to accelerating TB elimination within the US.

BACKGROUND: For settings with low tuberculosis incidence, disease elimination is a long-term goal. We investigated pathways to tuberculosis pre-elimination (incidence <1·0 cases per 100 000 people) and elimination (incidence <0·1 cases per 100 000 people) in the USA, where incidence was estimated at 2·9 per 100 000 people in 2023. METHODS: Using a mathematical modelling framework, we simulated how US tuberculosis incidence could be affected by changes in tuberculosis services in the countries of origin for future migrants to the USA, as well as changes in tuberculosis services inside the USA. To do so, we used a linked set of transmission dynamic models, calibrated to demographic and epidemiological data for each setting. We constructed intervention scenarios representing improvements in tuberculosis services internationally and within the USA, individually and in combination, plus a base-case scenario representing continuation of current services. We simulated health and economic outcomes until 2100, using a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in these outcomes. FINDINGS: Under the base-case scenario, US tuberculosis incidence was projected to decline to 1·8 cases per 100 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·5-2·1) in the total population by 2050. Intervention scenarios produced substantial reductions in tuberculosis incidence, with the combination of all domestic and international interventions projected to achieve pre-elimination by 2033 (95% UI 2031-2037). Compared with the base-case scenario, this combination of interventions could avert 101 000 tuberculosis cases (95% UI 84 000-120 000) and 13 300 tuberculosis deaths (95% UI 10 500-16 300) in the USA from 2025 to 2050. Tuberculosis elimination was not projected before 2100. INTERPRETATION: Strengthening tuberculosis services domestically, promoting the development of more effective technologies and interventions, and supporting tuberculosis programmes in countries with a high tuberculosis burden are key strategies for accelerating progress towards tuberculosis elimination in the USA. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Despite an overall decline in tuberculosis incidence and mortality in the USA in the past two decades, racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis outcomes persist. We aimed to examine the extent to which inequalities in health and neighbourhood-level social vulnerability mediate these disparities. METHODS: We extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on individuals with tuberculosis during 2011-19. Individuals with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis or missing data on race and ethnicity were excluded. We examined potential disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born and non-US-born individuals and conducted a mediation analysis for groups with a higher risk of treatment incompletion (a summary outcome comprising diagnosis after death, treatment discontinuation, or death during treatment). We used sequential multiple mediation to evaluate eight potential mediators: three comorbid conditions (HIV, end-stage renal disease, and diabetes), homelessness, and four census tract-level measures (poverty, unemployment, insurance coverage, and racialised economic segregation [measured by Index of Concentration at the Extremes(Race-Income)]). We estimated the marginal contribution of each mediator using Shapley values. FINDINGS: During 2011-19, 27 788 US-born individuals and 57 225 non-US-born individuals were diagnosed with active tuberculosis, of whom 27 605 and 56 253 individuals, respectively, met eligibility criteria for our analyses. We did not observe evidence of disparities in tuberculosis outcomes for non-US-born individuals by race and ethnicity. Therefore, subsequent analyses were restricted to US-born individuals. Relative to White individuals, Black and Hispanic individuals had a higher risk of not completing tuberculosis treatment (adjusted relative risk 1·27, 95% CI 1·19-1·35; 1·22, 1·11-1·33, respectively). In multiple mediator analysis, the eight measured mediators explained 67% of the disparity for Black individuals and 65% for Hispanic individuals. The biggest contributors to these disparities for Black individuals and Hispanic individuals were concomitant end-stage renal disease, concomitant HIV, census tract-level racialised economic segregation, and census tract-level poverty. INTERPRETATION: Our findings underscore the need for initiatives to reduce disparities in tuberculosis outcomes among US-born individuals, particularly in highly racially and economically polarised neighbourhoods. Mitigating the structural and environmental factors that lead to disparities in the prevalence of comorbidities and their case management should be a priority. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and Tuberculosis Prevention Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement.

BACKGROUND: Elevated tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates have recently been reported for racial/ethnic minority populations in the United States. Tracking such disparities is important for assessing progress toward national health equity goals and implementing change. OBJECTIVE: To quantify trends in racial/ethnic disparities in TB incidence among U.S.-born persons. DESIGN: Time-series analysis of national TB registry data for 2011 to 2021. SETTING: United States. PARTICIPANTS: U.S.-born persons stratified by race/ethnicity. MEASUREMENTS: TB incidence rates, incidence rate differences, and incidence rate ratios compared with non-Hispanic White persons; excess TB cases (calculated from incidence rate differences); and the index of disparity. Analyses were stratified by sex and by attribution of TB disease to recent transmission and were adjusted for age, year, and state of residence. RESULTS: In analyses of TB incidence rates for each racial/ethnic population compared with non-Hispanic White persons, incidence rate ratios were as high as 14.2 (95% CI, 13.0 to 15.5) among American Indian or Alaska Native (AI/AN) females. Relative disparities were greater for females, younger persons, and TB attributed to recent transmission. Absolute disparities were greater for males. Excess TB cases in 2011 to 2021 represented 69% (CI, 66% to 71%) and 62% (CI, 60% to 64%) of total cases for females and males, respectively. No evidence was found to indicate that incidence rate ratios decreased over time, and most relative disparity measures showed small, statistically nonsignificant increases. LIMITATION: Analyses assumed complete TB case diagnosis and self-report of race/ethnicity and were not adjusted for medical comorbidities or social determinants of health. CONCLUSION: There are persistent disparities in TB incidence by race/ethnicity. Relative disparities were greater for AI/AN persons, females, and younger persons, and absolute disparities were greater for males. Eliminating these disparities could reduce overall TB incidence by more than 60% among the U.S.-born population. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

BACKGROUND: Between October 2016 and March 2019, Lynn Community Health Center in Massachusetts implemented a targeted latent TB infection testing and treatment (TTT) program, increasing testing from a baseline of 1,200 patients tested to an average of 3,531 patients tested, or 9% of the population per year.METHODS: We compared pre-implementation TTT, represented by the first two quarters of implementation data, to TTT, represented by 12 quarters of data. Time, diagnostic, and laboratory resources were estimated using micro-costing. Other cost and testing data were obtained from the electronic health record, pharmaceutical claims, and published reimbursement rates. A Markov cohort model estimated future health outcomes and cost-effectiveness from a societal perspective in 2020 US dollars. Monte Carlo simulation generated 95% uncertainty intervals.RESULTS: The TTT program exhibited extended dominance over baseline pre-intervention testing and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$52,603 (US$22,008â-"US$95,360). When compared to baseline pre-TTT testing, the TTT program averted an estimated additional 7.12 TB cases, 3.49 hospitalizations, and 0.16 deaths per lifetime cohort each year.CONCLUSIONS: TTT was more cost-effective than baseline pre-implementation testing. Lynn Community Health Centerâ-™s experience can help inform other clinics considering expanding latent TB infection testing.

BACKGROUND: Persistent racial and ethnic disparities in tuberculosis incidence exist in the USA, however, less is known about disparities along the tuberculosis continuum of care. This study aimed to describe how race and ethnicity are associated with tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment outcomes. METHODS: In this analysis of national surveillance data, we extracted data from the US National Tuberculosis Surveillance System on US-born patients with tuberculosis during 2003-19. To estimate the association between race and ethnicity and tuberculosis diagnosis (diagnosis after death, cavitation, and sputum smear positivity) and treatment outcomes (treatment for more than 12 months, treatment discontinuation, and death during treatment), we fitted log-binomial regression models adjusting for calendar year, sex, age category, and regional division. Race and ethnicity were defined based on US Census Bureau classification as White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, American Indian or Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, and people of other ethnicities. We quantified racial and ethnic disparities as adjusted relative risks (aRRs) using non-Hispanic White people as the reference group. We also calculated the Index of Disparity as a summary measure that quantifies the dispersion in a given outcome across all racial and ethnic groups, relative to the population mean. We estimated time trends in each outcome to evaluate whether disparities were closing or widening. FINDINGS: From 2003 to 2019, there were 72 809 US-born individuals diagnosed with tuberculosis disease of whom 72 369 (35·7% women and 64·3% men) could be included in analyses. We observed an overall higher risk of any adverse outcome (defined as diagnosis after death, treatment discontinuation, or death during treatment) for non-Hispanic Black people (aRR 1·27, 95% CI 1·22-1·32), Hispanic people (1·20, 1·14-1·27), and American Indian or Alaska Native people (1·24, 1·12-1·37), relative to non-Hispanic White people. The Index of Disparity for this summary outcome remained unchanged over the study period. INTERPRETATION: This study, based on national surveillance data, indicates racial and ethnic disparaties among US-born tuberculosis patients along the tuberculosis continuum of care. Initiatives are needed to reduce diagnostic delays and improve treatment outcomes for US-born racially marginalised people in the USA. FUNDING: US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

BACKGROUND: In the United States, the tuberculosis (TB) disease burden and associated factors vary substantially across states. While public health agencies must choose how to deploy resources to combat TB and latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), state-level modeling analyses to inform policy decisions have not been widely available. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of TB epidemiology linked to a web-based user interface - Tabby2. The model is calibrated to epidemiological and demographic data for the United States, each U.S. state, and the District of Columbia. Users can simulate pre-defined scenarios describing approaches to TB prevention and treatment or create their own intervention scenarios. Location-specific results for epidemiological outcomes, service utilization, costs, and cost-effectiveness are reported as downloadable tables and customizable visualizations. To demonstrate the tool's functionality, we projected trends in TB outcomes without additional intervention for all 50 states and the District of Columbia. We further undertook a case study of expanded treatment of LTBI among non-U.S.-born individuals in Massachusetts, covering 10% of the target population annually over 2025-2029. RESULTS: Between 2022 and 2050, TB incidence rates were projected to decline in all states and the District of Columbia. Incidence projections for the year 2050 ranged from 0.03 to 3.8 cases (median 0.95) per 100,000 persons. By 2050, we project that majority (> 50%) of TB will be diagnosed among non-U.S.-born persons in 46 states and the District of Columbia; per state percentages range from 17.4% to 96.7% (median 83.0%). In Massachusetts, expanded testing and treatment for LTBI in this population was projected to reduce cumulative TB cases between 2025 and 2050 by 6.3% and TB-related deaths by 8.4%, relative to base case projections. This intervention had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $180,951 (2020 USD) per quality-adjusted life year gained from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: Tabby2 allows users to estimate the costs, impact, and cost-effectiveness of different TB prevention approaches for multiple geographic areas in the United States. Expanded testing and treatment for LTBI could accelerate declines in TB incidence in the United States, as demonstrated in the Massachusetts case study.

Objectives. To assess costs of video and traditional in-person directly observed therapy (DOT) for tuberculosis (TB) treatment to health departments and patients in New York City, Rhode Island, and San Francisco, California.Methods. We collected health department costs for video DOT (VDOT; live and recorded), and in-person DOT (field- and clinic-based). Time-motion surveys estimated provider time and cost. A separate survey collected patient costs. We used a regression model to estimate cost by DOT type.Results. Between August 2017 and June 2018, 343 DOT sessions were captured from 225 patients; 87 completed a survey. Patient costs were lowest for VDOT live ($1.01) and highest for clinic DOT ($34.53). The societal (health department + patient) costs of VDOT live and recorded ($6.65 and $12.64, respectively) were less than field and clinic DOT ($21.40 and $46.11, respectively). VDOT recorded health department cost was not statistically different from field DOT cost in Rhode Island.Conclusions. Among the 4 different modalities, both types of VDOT were associated with lower societal costs when compared with traditional forms of DOT.Public Health Implications. VDOT was associated with lower costs from the societal perspective and may reduce public health costs when TB incidence is high.

BACKGROUND: Targeted testing and treatment (TTT) for latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is a recommended strategy to accelerate TB reductions and further tuberculosis elimination in the United States (US). Evidence on cost-effectiveness of TTT for key populations can help advance this goal. METHODS: We used a model of TB transmission to estimate the numbers of individuals who could be tested by interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and treated for LTBI with three months of self-administered rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP) under various TTT scenarios. Specifically, we considered rapidly scaling up TTT among people who are non-US-born, diabetic, HIV-positive, homeless or incarcerated in California, Florida, New York, and Texas - states where more than half of US TB cases occur. We projected costs (from the healthcare system perspective, in 2018 dollars), thirty-year reductions in TB incidence, and incremental cost effectiveness (cost per quality-adjusted life year [QALY] gained) for TTT in each modeled population. RESULTS: The projected cost effectiveness of TTT differed substantially by state and population, while the health impact (number of TB cases averted) was consistently greatest among the non-US-born. TTT was most cost-effective among persons living with HIV (from $2,828/QALY gained in Florida to $11,265/QALY gained in New York) and least cost-effective among people with diabetes (from $223,041/QALY gained in California to $817,753 /QALY in New York). CONCLUSIONS: The modeled cost-effectiveness of TTT for LTBI varies across states but was consistently greatest among people living with HIV, moderate among people who are non-US-born, incarcerated, or homeless, and least cost-effective among people living with diabetes.

Rationale Mathematical modelling is used to understand disease dynamics, forecast trends, and inform public health prioritization. We conducted a comparative analysis of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology and potential intervention effects in California, using three previously developed epidemiologic models of TB. Measurements and Methods We compared model results between 2005 and 2050 under a base case scenario representing current TB services, and alternative scenarios including: (i) sustained interruption of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission, (ii) sustained resolution of latent TB infection (LTBI) and TB prior to entry of new residents, and (iii) one-time targeted testing and treatment of LTBI among 25% of non-US-born individuals residing in California. Results Model estimates of TB cases and deaths in California were in close agreement over the historical period but diverged for LTBI prevalence and new Mtb infections-outcomes for which definitive data are unavailable. Between 2018 and 2050, models projected average annual declines of 0.58-1.42% in TB cases, without additional interventions. A one-time LTBI testing and treatment intervention among non-US-born residents was projected to produce sustained reductions in TB incidence. Models found prevalent Mtb infection and migration to be more significant drivers of future TB incidence than local transmission. Conclusions All models projected a stagnation in the decline of TB incidence, highlighting the need for additional interventions including greater access to LTBI diagnosis and treatment for non-US-born individuals. Differences in model results reflect gaps in historical data and uncertainty in the trends of key parameters, demonstrating the need for high-quality, up-to-date TB determinant and outcome data.

OBJECTIVES: Research suggests that persons who are aware of the risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) are more likely to engage in healthy behaviors than persons who are not aware of the risk factors. We examined whether patients whose insurance claims included an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) code associated with hypertension who self-reported high blood pressure were more likely to fill antihypertensive medication prescriptions and less likely to have CVD-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations (hereinafter, CVD-related events) and related medical expenditures than patients with these codes who did not self-report high blood pressure. METHODS: We used a large convenience sample from the MarketScan Commercial Database linked with the MarketScan Health Risk Assessment (HRA) Database to identify patients aged 18-64 in the United States whose insurance claims included an ICD-9 code associated with hypertension and who completed an HRA from 2008 through 2012 (n = 111 655). We used multivariate logistic regression analysis to examine the association between self-reported high blood pressure and (1) filling prescriptions for antihypertensive medications and (2) CVD-related events. Because most patients with hypertension will not have a CVD-related event, we used a 2-part model to analyze medical expenditures. The first part estimated the likelihood of a CVD-related event, and the second part estimated expenditures. RESULTS: Patients with an ICD-9 code of hypertension who self-reported high blood pressure had a significantly higher predicted probability of filling antihypertensive medication prescriptions (26.5%; 95% confidence interval, 25.7-27.3; P < .001), had a significantly lower predicted probability of a CVD-related event (0.6%, P < .001), and on average spent significantly less on CVD-related events ($251, P = .01) than patients who did not self-report high blood pressure. CONCLUSION: This study affirms that self-knowledge of high blood pressure, even among patients who are diagnosed and treated for hypertension, can be improved. Interventions that improve patients' awareness of their hypertension may improve antihypertensive medication use and reduce adverse CVD-related events.

OBJECTIVES: Tracking trends in the testing of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) can help measure tuberculosis elimination efforts in the United States. The objectives of this study were to estimate (1) the annual number of persons tested for LTBI and the number of LTBI tests conducted, by type of test and by public, private, and military sectors, and (2) the cost of LTBI testing in the United States. METHODS: We searched the biomedical literature for published data on private-sector and military LTBI testing in 2013, and we used back-calculation to estimate public-sector LTBI testing. To estimate costs, we applied Medicare-allowable reimbursements in 2013 by test type. RESULTS: We estimated an average (low-high) 13.3 million (11.3-15.4 million) persons tested for LTBI and 15.3 million (12.9-17.7 million) LTBI tests, of which 13.2 million (11.1-15.3 million) were tuberculin skin tests and 2.1 million (1.8-2.4 million) were interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs). Eighty percent of persons tested were in the public sector, 18% were in the private sector, and 2% were in the military. Costs of LTBI tests and of chest radiography totaled $314 million (range, $256 million to $403 million). CONCLUSIONS: To achieve tuberculosis elimination, millions more persons will need to be tested in all sectors. By targeting testing to only those at high risk of tuberculosis and by using more specific IGRA tests, the incidence of tuberculosis in the United States can be reduced and resources can be more efficiently used.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number and cost of hospitalizations with a diagnosis of active tuberculosis (TB) disease in the United States. METHODS: We analyzed the 2014 National In-Patient Sample using the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9) codes to identify hospitalizations with a principal (TB-PD) or any secondary discharge (TB-SD) TB diagnosis. We used a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution to estimate the cost per TB-PD and TB-SD episode adjusted for patient demographics, insurer, clinical elements, and hospital characteristics. RESULTS: We estimated 4985 TB-PD and 6080 TB-SD hospitalizations nationwide. TB-PD adjusted averaged $16 695 per episode (95%CI $16 168-$17 221). The average for miliary/disseminated TB ($22 498, 95%CI $21 067-$23 929) or TB of the central nervous system ($28 338, 95%CI $25 836-$30 840) was significantly greater than for pulmonary TB ($14 819, 95%CI $14 284-$15 354). The most common principal diagnoses for TB-SD were septicemia (n = 965 hospitalizations), human immunodeficiency virus infection (n = 610), pneumonia (n = 565), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and bronchiectasis (COPD-B, n = 150). The adjusted average cost per TB-SD episode was $15 909 (95%CI $15 337-$16 481), varying between $8687 (95%CI $8337-$9036) for COPD-B and $23 335 (95%CI $21 979-$24 690) for septicemia. TB-PD cost the US health care system $123.4 million (95%CI $106.3-$140.5) and TB-SD cost $141.9 million ($128.4-$155.5), of which Medicaid/Medicare covered respectively 67.2% and 69.7%. CONCLUSIONS: TB hospitalizations result in substantial costs within the US health care system.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the reduction in number of hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and stroke as well as the associated health care costs resulting from reducing the number of smokers in the US federal workforce during a 5-year period. METHODS: We developed a 5-year spreadsheet-based cohort model with parameter values from past literature and analysis of national survey data. We obtained 2015 data on the federal workforce population from the US Office of Personnel Management and data on smoking prevalence among federal workers from the 2013-2015 National Health Interview Survey. We adjusted medical costs and productivity losses for inflation to 2015 US dollars, and we updated future productivity losses for growth. Because of uncertainty about the achievable reduction in smoking prevalence and input values (eg, relative risk for acute myocardial infarction and stroke, medical costs, and absenteeism), we performed a Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: We estimated smoking prevalence in the federal workforce to be 13%. A 5 percentage-point reduction in smoking prevalence could result in 1106 fewer hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (range, 925-1293), 799 fewer hospitalizations for stroke (range, 530-1091), and 493 fewer deaths (range, 494-598) during a 5-year period. Similarly, estimated costs averted would be $59 million (range, $49-$63 million) for medical costs, $332 million (range, $173-$490 million) for absenteeism, and $117 million (range, $93-$142 million) for productivity. CONCLUSION: Reductions in the prevalence of smoking in the federal workforce could substantially reduce the number of hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction and stroke, lower medical costs, and improve productivity.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the societal economic and health impacts of Maine's school-based influenza vaccination (SIV) program during the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza pandemic. DATA SOURCES: Primary and secondary data covering the 2008-09 and 2009-10 influenza seasons. STUDY DESIGN: We estimated weekly monovalent influenza vaccine uptake in Maine and 15 other states, using difference-in-difference-in-differences analysis to assess the program's impact on immunization among six age groups. We also developed a health and economic Markov microsimulation model and conducted Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. DATA COLLECTION: We used national survey data to estimate the impact of the SIV program on vaccine coverage. We used primary data and published studies to develop the microsimulation model. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The program was associated with higher immunization among children and lower immunization among adults aged 18-49 years and 65 and older. The program prevented 4,600 influenza infections and generated $4.9 million in net economic benefits. Cost savings from lower adult vaccination accounted for 54 percent of the economic gain. Economic benefits were positive in 98 percent of Monte Carlo simulations. CONCLUSIONS: SIV may be a cost-beneficial approach to increase immunization during pandemics, but programs should be designed to prevent lower immunization among nontargeted groups.

INTRODUCTION: Employers may incur costs related to absenteeism among employees who have chronic diseases or unhealthy behaviors. We examined the association between employee absenteeism and 5 conditions: 3 risk factors (smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity) and 2 chronic diseases (hypertension and diabetes). METHODS: We identified 5 chronic diseases or risk factors from 2 data sources: MarketScan Health Risk Assessment and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). Absenteeism was measured as the number of workdays missed because of sickness or injury. We used zero-inflated Poisson regression to estimate excess absenteeism as the difference in the number of days missed from work by those who reported having a risk factor or chronic disease and those who did not. Covariates included demographics (eg, age, education, sex) and employment variables (eg, industry, union membership). We quantified absenteeism costs in 2011 and adjusted them to reflect growth in employment costs to 2015 dollars. Finally, we estimated absenteeism costs for a hypothetical small employer (100 employees) and a hypothetical large employer (1,000 employees). RESULTS: Absenteeism estimates ranged from 1 to 2 days per individual per year depending on the risk factor or chronic disease. Except for the physical inactivity and obesity estimates, disease- and risk-factor-specific estimates were similar in MEPS and MarketScan. Absenteeism increased with the number of risk factors or diseases reported. Nationally, each risk factor or disease was associated with annual absenteeism costs greater than $2 billion. Absenteeism costs ranged from $16 to $81 (small employer) and $17 to $286 (large employer) per employee per year. CONCLUSION: Absenteeism costs associated with chronic diseases and health risk factors can be substantial. Employers may incur these costs through lower productivity, and employees could incur costs through lower wages.

INTRODUCTION: Alaska Native colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality rates are the highest of any ethnic/racial group in the United States. CRC screening using guaiac-based fecal occult blood tests (gFOBT) are not recommended for Alaska Native people because of false-positive results associated with a high prevalence of Helicobacter pylori-associated hemorrhagic gastritis. This study evaluated whether the newer immunochemical FOBT (iFOBT) resulted in a lower false-positive rate and higher specificity for detecting advanced colorectal neoplasia than gFOBT in a population with elevated prevalence of H. pylori infection. METHODS: We used a population-based sample of 304 asymptomatic Alaska Native adults aged 40 years or older undergoing screening or surveillance colonoscopy (April 2008-January 2012). RESULTS: Specificity differed significantly (P < .001) between gFOBT (76%; 95% CI, 71%-81%) and iFOBT (92%; 95% CI, 89%-96%). Among H. pylori-positive participants (54%), specificity of iFOBT was even higher (93% vs 69%). Overall, sensitivity did not differ significantly (P = .73) between gFOBT (29%) and iFOBT (36%). Positive predictive value was 11% for gFOBT and 32% for iFOBT. CONCLUSION: The iFOBT had a significantly higher specificity than gFOBT, especially in participants with current H. pylori infection. The iFOBT represents a potential strategy for expanding CRC screening among Alaska Native and other populations with elevated prevalence of H. pylori, especially where access to screening endoscopy is limited.

The use of alternative venues beyond physician offices may help to increase rates of population influenza vaccination. Schools provide a logical setting for reaching children, but most school-located vaccination (SLV) efforts to date have been limited to local areas. The potential reach and acceptability of SLV at the national level is unknown in the United States. To address this gap, we conducted a nationally representative online survey of 1088 parents of school-aged children. We estimate rates of, and factors associated with, future hypothetical parental consent for children to participate in SLV for influenza. Based on logistic regression analysis, we estimate that 51% of parents would be willing to consent to SLV for influenza. Among those who would consent, SLV was reported as more convenient than the regular location (42.1% vs. 19.9%, P<0.001). However the regular location was preferred over SLV for the child's well-being in case of side effects (46.4% vs. 20.9%, P<0.001) and proper administration of the vaccine (31.0% vs. 21.0%, P<0.001). Parents with college degrees and whose child received the 2009-2010 seasonal or 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccination were more likely to consent, as were parents of uninsured children. Several measures of concern about vaccine safety were negatively associated with consent for SLV. Of those not against SLV, schools were preferred as more convenient to the regular location by college graduates, those whose child received the 2009-2010 seasonal or 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccination, and those with greater travel and clinic time. With an estimated one-half of U.S. parents willing to consent to SLV, this study shows the potential to use schools for large-scale influenza vaccination programs in the U.S.

BACKGROUND: Infants <2 months of age are at highest risk of pertussis morbidity and mortality. Until recently, the US Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended protecting young infants by "cocooning" or vaccination of postpartum mothers and other close contacts with tetanus toxoid, reduced diphtheria toxoid, and acellular pertussis, adsorbed (Tdap) booster vaccine. ACIP recommends pregnancy vaccination as a preferred and safe alternative to postpartum vaccination. The ACIP cocooning recommendation has not changed. METHODS: We used a cohort model reflecting US 2009 births and the diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis schedule to simulate a decision and cost-effectiveness analysis of Tdap vaccination during pregnancy compared with postpartum vaccination with or without vaccination of other close contacts (ie, cocooning). We analyzed infant pertussis cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as direct disease, indirect, and public health costs for infants in the first year of life. All costs were updated to 2011 US dollars. RESULTS: Pregnancy vaccination could reduce annual infant pertussis incidence by more than postpartum vaccination, reducing cases by 33% versus 20%, hospitalizations by 38% versus 19%, and deaths by 49% versus 16%. Additional cocooning doses in a father and 1 grandparent could avert an additional 16% of cases but at higher cost. The cost per quality-adjusted life-year saved for pregnancy vaccination was substantially less than postpartum vaccination ($414,523 vs $1,172,825). CONCLUSIONS: Tdap vaccination during pregnancy could avert more infant cases and deaths at lower cost than postpartum vaccination, even when postpartum vaccination is combined with additional cocooning doses. Pregnancy dose vaccination is the preferred alternative to postpartum vaccination for preventing infant pertussis.

School nurses played a key role in Maine's school-located influenza vaccination (SLV) clinics during the 2009-2010 pandemic season. The objective of this study was to determine, from the school district perspective, the labor hours and costs associated with outside-clinic coordination activities (OCA). The authors defined OCA as labor hours spent by staff outside of clinic operations. The authors surveyed a convenience sample of 10 school nurses from nine school districts. Eight nurses responded to the survey, representing seven districts, 45 schools and 84 SLV clinics that provided a total of 22,596 vaccine doses (H1N1 and seasonal combined) to children and adolescents. The mean total OCA time per clinic was 69 hours: out of total hours, 22 (36%) were spent outside regular clinic operation time. The authors estimated the mean cost of OCA to be $15.36 per dose. Survey respondents reported that costs would be lower during non-pandemic seasons and as schools become more proficient at planning clinics.

This study retrospectively estimated costs for a convenience sample of school-located vaccination (SLV) clinics conducted in Maine during the 2009-2010 influenza season. Surveys were developed to capture the cost of labor including unpaid volunteers as well as supplies and materials used in SLV clinics. Six nurses from different school districts completed a clinic day survey on staff time; four of the six also provided data for materials and supplies. For all clinics, average per-dose labor cost was estimated at $5.95. Average per-dose material cost, excluding vaccine, was $5.76. From the four complete clinic survey responses, total per-dose cost was estimated to be an average of $13.51 (range = $4.91-$32.39). Use of donated materials and uncompensated volunteer staff could substantially reduce per-dose cost. Average per-dose cost could also be lowered by increasing the number of doses administered in a clinic.

BACKGROUND: Historically, China's Japanese encephalitis vaccination program was a mix of household purchase of vaccine and government provision of vaccine in some endemic provinces. In 2006, Guizhou, a highly endemic province in South West China, integrated JE vaccine into the provincial Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI); later, in 2007 China fully integrated 28 provinces into the national EPI, including Guizhou, allowing for vaccine and syringe costs to be paid at the national level. We conducted a retrospective economic analysis of JE integration into EPI in Guizhou province. METHODS: We modeled two theoretical cohorts of 100,000 persons for 65 years; one using JE live-attenuated vaccine in EPI (first dose: 95% coverage and 94.5% efficacy; second dose: 85% coverage and 98% efficacy) and one not. We assumed 60% sensitivity of surveillance for reported JE rates, 25% case fatality, 30% chronic disability and 3% discounting. We reviewed acute care medical records and interviewed a sample of survivors to estimate direct and indirect costs of illness. We reviewed the EPI offices expenditures in 2009 to estimate the average Guizhou program cost per vaccine dose. RESULTS: Use of JE vaccine in EPI for 100,000 persons would cost 434,898 US$ each year (46% of total cost due to vaccine) and prevent 406 JE cases, 102 deaths, and 122 chronic disabilities (4554 DALYs). If we ignore future cost savings and only use EPI program cost, the program would cost 95.5 US$/DALY, less than China Gross Domestic Product per capita in 2009 (3741 US$). From a cost-benefit perspective taking into account future savings, use of JE vaccine in EPI for a 100,000-person cohort would lead to savings of 1,591,975 US$ for the health system and 11,570,989 US$ from the societal perspective. CONCLUSIONS: In Guizhou, China, use of JE vaccine in EPI is a cost effective investment. Furthermore, it would lead to savings for the health system and society.

OBJECTIVES: To examine trends in diabetes prevalence, incidence, complications and mortality between 1985 and 2006 among Alaska Native people. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from the population-based Alaska Native Diabetes Registry, which includes all people who receive care in the Alaska Tribal Health System. METHODS: We compared the periods of 1986-1990 and 2002-2006 for diabetes-related amputations, renal replacement and mortality using Poisson regression. Complications and mortality data were examined for trends using Poisson regression. Survival analyses for those diagnosed since 31 December 1985 were performed using the Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Age-adjusted diabetes prevalence increased from 17.3 in 1985 to 47.6/1,000 in 2006. The number of Alaska Native people living in Alaska with diabetes increased from 610 in 1985 to 3,386 in 2006. Diabetes incidence rates have also increased. Comparing age-adjusted rates for the 5-year periods 1986-1990 and 2002-2006, amputations decreased from 5.3 to 2.6/1,000, renal replacement decreased from 3.3 to 1.2/1,000 and mortality decreased from 41.7 to 33.2/1,000. Yearly analyses showed a downward trend for amputations, renal replacement and mortality rates. Survival analyses showed a significantly higher hazard ratio for any amputations, major amputations and renal replacement for the earlier time period compared to the most recent time period. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in risk factors, awareness, funding and case-finding may be contributing to the increase in prevalence and incidence of diagnosed diabetes. While diabetes prevalence and incidence are increasing among Alaska Native people, our results suggest that even in remote, rural areas, complications and mortality can be reduced.