Data science is an emerging field that provides new analytical methods. It incorporates novel data sources (eg, internet data) and methods (eg, machine learning) that offer valuable and timely insights into public health issues, including injury and violence prevention. The objective of this research was to describe ethical considerations for public health data scientists conducting injury and violence prevention-related data science projects to prevent unintended ethical, legal, and social consequences, such as loss of privacy or loss of public trust. We first reviewed foundational bioethics and public health ethics literature to identify key ethical concepts relevant to public health data science. After identifying these ethics concepts, we held a series of discussions to organize them under broad ethical domains. Within each domain, we examined relevant ethics concepts from our review of the primary literature. Lastly, we developed questions for each ethical domain to facilitate the early conceptualization stage of the ethical analysis of injury and violence prevention projects. We identified 4 ethical domains: privacy, responsible stewardship, justice as fairness, and inclusivity and engagement. We determined that each domain carries equal weight, with no consideration bearing more importance than the others. Examples of ethical considerations are clearly identifying project goals, determining whether people included in projects are at risk of reidentification through external sources or linkages, and evaluating and minimizing the potential for bias in data sources used. As data science methodologies are incorporated into public health research to work toward reducing the effect of injury and violence on individuals, families, and communities in the United States, we recommend that relevant ethical issues be identified, considered, and addressed.

We present a nation-wide network analysis of non-fatal opioid-involved overdose journeys in the United States. Leveraging a unique proprietary dataset of Emergency Medical Services incidents, we construct a journey-to-overdose geospatial network capturing nearly half a million opioid-involved overdose events spanning 2018-2023. We analyze the structure and sociological profiles of the nodes, which are counties or their equivalents, characterize the distribution of overdose journey lengths, and investigate changes in the journey network between 2018 and 2023. Our findings include that authority and hub nodes identified by the HITS algorithm tend to be located in urban areas and involved in overdose journeys with particularly long geographical distances.

INTRODUCTION: In 2021, among all age groups, falls ranked as the third leading cause of unintentional injury death in the USA. Unlike fatal data, which rely on death certificates as the gold standard, there is not a gold standard for non-fatal data. Non-fatal falls data are often based on insurance claims or administrative billing data. The purpose of our study is to compare three claims databases to estimate rates of unintentional fall-related hospitalisations in 2019, the most recent year of available data across the three sources. METHODS: Three databases were used to produce incidence rates of fall-related hospitalisations for the year 2019: (1) Merative MarketScan research databases, (2) Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) data and (3) Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) National Inpatient Sample. Inpatient falls were identified using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Incidence rates per 100 000 people were then produced across all three datasets by payer type. Unadjusted incidence rate ratios were estimated with corresponding 95% CIs. RESULTS: There were wide disparities among fall rates between the three datasets by payer type. HCUP had the highest rate of falls among Medicare (1087.6 per 100 000) and commercial enrollees (74.7 per 100 000), while CMS had the highest rates of falls among Medicaid enrollees (148.0 per 100 000). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows wide variation in fall hospitalisation rates based on the claims data used to estimate rates. This study suggests that database selection is an important consideration when determining incidence of non-fatal falls.

BACKGROUND: Suicide mortality data are a critical source of information for understanding suicide-related trends in the United States. However, official suicide mortality data experience significant delays. The Google Symptom Search Dataset (SSD), a novel population-level data source derived from online search behavior, has not been evaluated for its utility in predicting suicide mortality trends. METHODS: We identified five mental health related variables (suicidal ideation, self-harm, depression, major depressive disorder, and pain) from the SSD. Daily search trends for these symptoms were utilized to estimate national and state suicide counts in 2020, the most recent year for which data was available, via a linear regression model. We compared the performance of this model to a baseline autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and a model including all 422 symptoms (All Symptoms) in the SSD. RESULTS: Our Mental Health Model estimated the national number of suicide deaths with an error of -3.86 %, compared to an error of 7.17 % and 28.49 % for the ARIMA baseline and All Symptoms models. At the state level, 70 % (N = 35) of states had a prediction error of <10 % with the Mental Health Model, with accuracy generally favoring larger population states with higher number of suicide deaths. CONCLUSION: The Google SSD is a new real-time data source that can be used to make accurate predictions of suicide mortality monthly trends at the national level. Additional research is needed to optimize state level predictions for states with low suicide counts.

IMPORTANCE: Firearm homicides are a major public health concern; lack of timely mortality data presents considerable challenges to effective response. Near real-time data sources offer potential for more timely estimation of firearm homicides. OBJECTIVE: To estimate near real-time burden of weekly and annual firearm homicides in the US. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this prognostic study, anonymous, longitudinal time series data were obtained from multiple data sources, including Google and YouTube search trends related to firearms (2014-2019), emergency department visits for firearm injuries (National Syndromic Surveillance Program, 2014-2019), emergency medical service activations for firearm-related injuries (biospatial, 2014-2019), and National Domestic Violence Hotline contacts flagged with the keyword firearm (2016-2019). Data analysis was performed from September 2021 to September 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Weekly estimates of US firearm homicides were calculated using a 2-phase pipeline, first fitting optimal machine learning models for each data stream and then combining the best individual models into a stacked ensemble model. Model accuracy was assessed by comparing predictions of firearm homicides in 2019 to actual firearm homicides identified by National Vital Statistics System death certificates. Results were also compared with a SARIMA (seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average) model, a common method to forecast injury mortality. RESULTS: Both individual and ensemble models yielded highly accurate estimates of firearm homicides. Individual models' mean error for weekly estimates of firearm homicides (root mean square error) varied from 24.95 for emergency department visits to 31.29 for SARIMA forecasting. Ensemble models combining data sources had lower weekly mean error and higher annual accuracy than individual data sources: the all-source ensemble model had a weekly root mean square error of 24.46 deaths and full-year accuracy of 99.74%, predicting the total number of firearm homicides in 2019 within 38 deaths for the entire year (compared with 95.48% accuracy and 652 deaths for the SARIMA model). The model decreased the time lag of reporting weekly firearm homicides from 7 to 8 months to approximately 6 weeks. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this prognostic study of diverse secondary data on machine learning, ensemble modeling produced accurate near real-time estimates of weekly and annual firearm homicides and substantially decreased data source time lags. Ensemble model forecasts can accelerate public health practitioners' and policy makers' ability to respond to unanticipated shifts in firearm homicides.

INTRODUCTION: On March 13, 2020, the U.S. declared COVID-19 to be a national emergency. As communities adopted mitigation strategies, there were potential changes in the trends of injuries treated in emergency department. This study provides national estimates of injury-related emergency department visits in the U.S. before and during the pandemic. METHODS: A secondary retrospective cohort study was conducted using trained, on-site hospital coders collecting data for injury-related emergency department cases from medical records from a nationally representative sample of 66 U.S. hospital emergency departments. Injury emergency department visit estimates in the year before the pandemic (January 1, 2019-December 31, 2019) were compared with estimates of the year of pandemic declaration (January 1, 2020-December 31, 2020) for overall nonfatal injury-related emergency department visits, motor vehicle, falls-related, self-harm-, assault-related, and poisoning-related emergency department visits. RESULTS: There was an estimated 1.7 million (25%) decrease in nonfatal injury-related emergency department visits during April through June 2020 compared with those of the same timeframe in 2019. Similar decreases were observed for emergency department visits because of motor vehicle‒related injuries (199,329; 23.3%) and falls-related injuries (497,971; 25.1%). Monthly 2020 estimates remained relatively in line with 2019 estimates for self-harm‒, assault-, and poisoning-related emergency department visits. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide updates for clinical and public health practitioners on the changing profile of injury-related emergency department visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the short- and long-term impacts of the pandemic is important to preventing future injuries.