Global measles vaccine coverage has stagnated at approximately 85% for over a decade. By simplifying vaccine logistics and administration, the measles and rubella microarray patch (MR-MAP) may improve coverage. Clinical trials have demonstrated similar safety and immunogenicity in 9-month-old infants for MR-MAPs compared with syringe-and-needle vaccination. To aid commercialization, we present estimates of MR-MAP demand. We created a spreadsheet-based tool to estimate demand for MR-MAPs using data from 180 WHO countries during 2000-2016. Five immunization scenarios were analyzed: (1a) Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) in Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance (Gavi)-eligible countries and (1b) WHO countries where preventive SIAs are routinely conducted; (2) SIAs and outbreak response immunization in all WHO countries; (3) routine immunization (RI) and SIAs in six high-burden measles countries (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Pakistan); (4) RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries; and (5) hard-to-reach populations. MR-MAP demand varied greatly across scenarios. Forecasts for 2025-2034 estimate from 137 million doses in hard-to-reach populations (scenario 5) to 2.587 billion doses for RI and SIAs in six high-burden countries and Gavi-eligible countries (scenario 4). When policymakers and manufacturers assess MR-MAP demand, they may consider multiple scenarios to allow for a complete consideration of potential markets and public health needs.

Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) are public health measures that aim to break the chain of pathogen transmission. Changes in viral characteristics of COVID-19 variants have likely affected the effectiveness of CICT programs. We estimated and compared the cases averted in Vermont when the original COVID-19 strain circulated (Nov. 25, 2020-Jan. 19, 2021) with two periods when the Delta strain dominated (Aug. 1-Sept. 25, 2021, and Sept. 26-Nov. 20, 2021). When the original strain circulated, we estimated that CICT prevented 7180 cases (55% reduction in disease burden), compared to 1437 (15% reduction) and 9970 cases (40% reduction) when the Delta strain circulated. Despite the Delta variant being more infectious and having a shorter latency period, CICT remained an effective tool to slow spread of COVID-19; while these viral characteristics did diminish CICT effectiveness, non-viral characteristics had a much greater impact on CICT effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Facing a surge of COVID-19 cases in late August 2021, the U.S. state of Illinois re-enacted its COVID-19 mask mandate for the general public and issued a requirement for workers in certain professions to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or undergo weekly testing. The mask mandate required any individual, regardless of their vaccination status, to wear a well-fitting mask in an indoor setting. METHODS: We used Illinois Department of Public Health's COVID-19 confirmed case and vaccination data and investigated scenarios where masking and vaccination would have been reduced to mimic what would have happened had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been put in place. The study examined a range of potential reductions in masking and vaccination mimicking potential scenarios had the mask mandate or vaccine requirement not been enacted. We estimated COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by changes in masking and vaccination during the period covering October 20 to December 20, 2021. RESULTS: We find that the announcement and implementation of a mask mandate are likely to correlate with a strong protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden and the announcement of a vaccinate-or-test requirement among frontline professionals is likely to correlate with a more modest protective effect at reducing COVID-19 burden. In our most conservative scenario, we estimated that from the period of October 20 to December 20, 2021, the mask mandate likely prevented approximately 58,000 cases and 1,175 hospitalizations, while the vaccinate-or-test requirement may have prevented at most approximately 24,000 cases and 475 hospitalizations. CONCLUSION: Our results indicate that mask mandates and vaccine-or-test requirements are vital in mitigating the burden of COVID-19 during surges of the virus.

Because of constrained personnel time, the Philadelphia Department of Public Health (Philadelphia, PA, USA) adjusted its COVID-19 contact tracing protocol in summer 2021 by prioritizing recent cases and limiting staff time per case. This action reduced required staff hours to prevent each case from 21-30 to 8-11 hours, while maintaining program effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: During November 2019-October 2021, a pediatric influenza vaccination demonstration project was conducted in four sub-counties in Kenya. The demonstration piloted two different delivery strategies: year-round vaccination and a four-month vaccination campaign. Our objective was to compare the costs of both delivery strategies. METHODS: Cost data were collected using standardized questionnaires and extracted from government and project accounting records. We reported total costs and costs per vaccine dose administered by delivery strategy from the Kenyan government perspective in 2021 US$. Costs were separated into financial costs (monetary expenditures) and economic costs (financial costs plus the value of existing resources). We also separated costs by administrative level (national, regional, county, sub-county, and health facility) and program activity (advocacy and social mobilization; training; distribution, storage, and waste management; service delivery; monitoring; and supervision). RESULTS: The total estimated cost of the pediatric influenza demonstration project was US$ 225,269 (financial) and US$ 326,691 (economic) for the year-round delivery strategy (30,397 vaccine doses administered), compared with US$ 214,753 (financial) and US$ 242,385 (economic) for the campaign strategy (25,404 doses administered). Vaccine purchase represented the largest proportion of costs for both strategies. Excluding vaccine purchase, the cost per dose administered was US$ 1.58 (financial) and US$ 5.84 (economic) for the year-round strategy and US$ 2.89 (financial) and US$ 4.56 (economic) for the campaign strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The financial cost per dose was 83% higher for the campaign strategy than the year-round strategy due to larger expenditures for advocacy and social mobilization, training, and hiring of surge staff for service delivery. However, the economic cost per dose was more comparable for both strategies (year-round 22% higher than campaign), balanced by higher costs of operating equipment and monitoring activities for the year-round strategy. These delivery cost data provide real-world evidence to inform pediatric influenza vaccine introduction in Kenya.

INTRODUCTION: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a simple spreadsheet-based tool to help state and local public health officials assess the performance and impact of COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing in their jurisdiction. The applicability and feasibility of building such a tool for sexually transmitted diseases were assessed. METHODS: The key epidemiologic differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory diseases (e.g., mixing patterns, incubation period, duration of infection, and the availability of treatment) were identified, and their implications for modeling case investigation and contact tracing impact with a simple spreadsheet tool were remarked on. Existing features of the COVID-19 tool that are applicable for evaluating the impact of case investigation and contact tracing for sexually transmitted diseases were also identified. RESULTS: Our findings offer recommendations for the future development of a spreadsheet-based modeling tool for evaluating the impact of sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing efforts. Generally, we advocate for simplifying sexually transmitted disease-specific complexities and performing sensitivity analyses to assess uncertainty. The authors also acknowledge that more complex modeling approaches might be required but note that it is possible that a sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could incorporate features from more complex models while maintaining a user-friendly interface. CONCLUSIONS: A sexually transmitted disease case investigation and contact tracing tool could benefit from the incorporation of key features of the COVID-19 model, namely its user-friendly interface. The inherent differences between sexually transmitted diseases and respiratory viruses should not be seen as a limitation to the development of such tool.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to particulate matter ≤2.5 μm in diameter (PM(2.5)) and ozone (O(3)) has been linked to numerous harmful health outcomes. While epidemiologic evidence has suggested a positive association with type 2 diabetes (T2D), there is heterogeneity in findings. We evaluated exposures to PM(2.5) and O(3) across three large samples in the US using a harmonized approach for exposure assignment and covariate adjustment. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk (VADR) cohort (electronic health records [EHRs]), the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Disparities in Stroke (REGARDS) cohort (primary data collection), and the Geisinger health system (EHRs), and reflect the years 2003-2016 (REGARDS) and 2008-2016 (VADR and Geisinger). New onset T2D was ascertained using EHR information on medication orders, laboratory results, and T2D diagnoses (VADR and Geisinger) or report of T2D medication or diagnosis and/or elevated blood glucose levels (REGARDS). Exposure was assigned using pollutant annual averages from the Downscaler model. Models stratified by community type (higher density urban, lower density urban, suburban/small town, or rural census tracts) evaluated likelihood of new onset T2D in each study sample in single- and two-pollutant models of PM(2.5) and O(3). RESULTS: In two pollutant models, associations of PM(2.5), and new onset T2D were null in the REGARDS cohort except for in suburban/small town community types in models that also adjusted for NSEE, with an odds ratio (95% CI) of 1.51 (1.01, 2.25) per 5 μg/m(3) of PM(2.5). Results in the Geisinger sample were null. VADR sample results evidenced nonlinear associations for both pollutants; the shape of the association was dependent on community type. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between PM(2.5), O(3) and new onset T2D differed across three large study samples in the US. None of the results from any of the three study populations found strong and clear positive associations.

Context The implementation of case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) for controlling COVID-19 (caused by SARS-Cov-2 virus) has proven challenging due to varying levels of public acceptance and initially constrained resources, especially enough trained staff. Evaluating the impacts of CICT will aid efforts to improve such programs.Objectives Estimate the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by CICT and identify CICT processes that could improve overall effectiveness.Design We used data on proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days from testing to contact notification from 14 jurisdictions to model the impact of CICT on cumulative cases counts and hospitalizations over a 60-day period. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s COVIDTracer tool, we estimated a range of impacts by assuming either contacts would quarantine only if monitored or would do so upon notification of potential exposure. We also varied the observed program metrics to assess their relative influence.Results Performance by jurisdictions varied widely. Jurisdictions isolated between 12 and 86% of cases (including contacts which became cases) within 6 to 10 days after exposure-and-infection. We estimated that CICT-related reductions in transmission ranged from 0.4% to 32%. For every 100 cases prevented by nonpharmaceutical interventions, CICT averted between 4 and 97 additional cases. Reducing time to case isolation by one day increased averted case estimates by up to 15 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of cases interviewed or contacts notified by 20 percentage points each resulted in at most 3 or 6 percentage point improvements in averted cases.Conclusions We estimated that case investigation and contact tracing reduced the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among all jurisdictions studied. Reducing time to isolation produced the greatest improvements in impact of CICT.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis work was performed as part of the official duties of all participants in support of the US CDC's COVID-19 Response.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This activity was reviewed by CDC and was conducted consistent with applicable federal law and CDC policy.All necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesData is available upon request

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. In 2020, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized hundreds of thousands of specific predictions from more than 50 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. This manuscript systematically evaluates 23 models that regularly submitted forecasts of reported weekly incident COVID-19 mortality counts in the US at the state and national level. One of these models was a multi-model ensemble that combined all available forecasts each week. The performance of individual models showed high variability across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Half of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. In combining the forecasts from all teams, the ensemble showed the best overall probabilistic accuracy of any model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions farther into the future, with probabilistic accuracy at a 20-week horizon more than 5 times worse than when predicting at a 1-week horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.Competing Interest StatementAV, MC, and APP report grants from Metabiota Inc outside the submitted work.Funding StatementFor teams that reported receiving funding for their work, we report the sources and disclosures below. CMU-TimeSeries: CDC Center of Excellence, gifts from Google and Facebook. CU-select: NSF DMS-2027369 and a gift from the Morris-Singer Foundation. COVIDhub: This work has been supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (1U01IP001122) and the National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of CDC, NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health. Johannes Bracher was supported by the Helmholtz Foundation via the SIMCARD Information& Data Science Pilot Project. Tilmann Gneiting gratefully acknowledges support by the Klaus Tschira Foundation. DDS-NBDS: NSF III-1812699. EPIFORECASTS-ENSEMBLE1: Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z) GT_CHHS-COVID19: William W. George Endowment, Virginia C. and Joseph C. Mello Endowments, NSF DGE-1650044, NSF MRI 1828187, research cyberinfrastructure resources and services provided by the Partnership for an Advanced Computing Environment (PACE) at Georgia Tech, and the following benefactors at Georgia Tech: Andrea Laliberte, Joseph C. Mello, Richard Rick E. & Charlene Zalesky, and Claudia & Paul Raines GT-DeepCOVID: CDC MInD-Healthcare U01CK000531-Supplement. NSF (Expeditions CCF-1918770, CAREER IIS-2028586, RAPID IIS-2027862, Medium IIS-1955883, NRT DGE-1545362), CDC MInD program, ORNL and funds/computing resources from Georgia Tech and GTRI. IHME: This work was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, as well as funding from the state of Washington and the National Science Foundation (award no. FAIN: 2031096). IowaStateLW-STEM: Iowa State University Plant Sciences Institute Scholars Program, NSF DMS-1916204, NSF CCF-1934884, Laurence H. Baker Center for Bioinformatics and Biological Statistics. JHU_IDD-CovidSP: State of California, US Dept of Health and Human Services, US Dept of Homeland Security, US Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance, Johns Hopkins Health System, Office of the Dean at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University Modeling and Policy Hub, Centers fo Disease Control and Prevention (5U01CK000538-03), University of Utah Immunology, Inflammation, & Infectious Disease Initiative (26798 Seed Grant). LANL-GrowthRate: LANL LDRD 20200700ER. MOBS-GLEAM_COVID: COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. NotreDame-mobility and NotreDame-FRED: NSF RAPID DEB 2027718 UA-EpiCovDA: NSF RAPID Grant # 2028401. UCSB-ACTS: NSF RAPID IIS 2029626. UCSD-NEU: Google Faculty Award, DARPA W31P4Q-21-C-0014, COVID Supplement CDC-HHS-6U01IP001137-01. UMass-MechBayes: NIGMS R35GM119582, NSF 1749854. UMich-RidgeTfReg: The University of Michigan Physics Department and the University of Michigan Office of Research.Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:UMass-Amherst IRBAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).YesI have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data and code referred to in the manuscript are publicly available. https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/ https://github.com/reichlab/covidEnsembles https://zoltardata.com/project/44

Importance: Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 Case Investigation and Contact Tracing (CICT) programs is lacking. Policymakers need this evidence to assess its value. Objective(s): Estimate COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted nationwide by US states' CICT programs. Design(s): We combined data from US CICT programs (e.g., proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days to case and contact notification) with incidence data to model CICT impacts over 60 days period (November 25, 2020 to January 23, 2021) during the height of the pandemic. We estimated a range of impacts by varying assumed compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. Setting(s): US States and Territories Participants: Fifty-nine state and territorial health departments that received federal funding supporting COVID-19 pandemic response activities were eligible for inclusion. Of these, 22 states and 1 territory reported all measures necessary for the analysis. These 23 jurisdictions covered 42.5% of the US population (140 million persons), spanned all 4 census regions, and reported data that reflected all 59 federally funded CICT programs. Intervention(s): Public health case investigation and contact tracing Main Outcomes and Measures: Cases and hospitalizations averted; percent of cases averted among cases not prevented by vaccination and other non-pharmaceutical interventions (other NPIs). Result(s): We estimated 1.11 million cases and 27,231 hospitalizations were averted by CICT programs under a scenario where 80% of interviewed cases and monitored contacts, and 30% of notified contacts fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidance, eliminating their contributions to future transmission. As many as 1.36 million cases and 33,527 hospitalizations could have been prevented if all interviewed cases and monitored contacts had entered into and fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines upon being interviewed or notified. Across all scenarios and jurisdictions, CICT averted a median of 21.2% (range: 1.3% - 65.8%) of the cases not prevented by vaccination and other NPIs. Conclusions and Relevance: CICT programs likely had a substantial role in curtailing the pandemic in most jurisdictions during the winter 2020-2021 peak. Differences in impact across jurisdictions indicate an opportunity to further improve CICT effectiveness. These estimates demonstrate the potential benefits from sustaining and improving these programs. Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license.

INTRODUCTION: Inequitable access to leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) resources may explain geographic disparities in type 2 diabetes (T2D). We evaluated whether the neighborhood socioeconomic environment (NSEE) affects T2D through the LTPA environment. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted analyses in three study samples: the national Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk (VADR) cohort comprising electronic health records (EHR) of 4.1 million T2D-free veterans, the national prospective cohort REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) (11 208 T2D free), and a case-control study of Geisinger EHR in Pennsylvania (15 888 T2D cases). New-onset T2D was defined using diagnoses, laboratory and medication data. We harmonized neighborhood-level variables, including exposure, confounders, and effect modifiers. We measured NSEE with a summary index of six census tract indicators. The LTPA environment was measured by physical activity (PA) facility (gyms and other commercial facilities) density within street network buffers and population-weighted distance to parks. We estimated natural direct and indirect effects for each mediator stratified by community type. RESULTS: The magnitudes of the indirect effects were generally small, and the direction of the indirect effects differed by community type and study sample. The most consistent findings were for mediation via PA facility density in rural communities, where we observed positive indirect effects (differences in T2D incidence rates (95% CI) comparing the highest versus lowest quartiles of NSEE, multiplied by 100) of 1.53 (0.25, 3.05) in REGARDS and 0.0066 (0.0038, 0.0099) in VADR. No mediation was evident in Geisinger. CONCLUSIONS: PA facility density and distance to parks did not substantially mediate the relation between NSEE and T2D. Our heterogeneous results suggest that approaches to reduce T2D through changes to the LTPA environment require local tailoring.

The US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) supports molecular HIV and tuberculosis diagnostic networks and information management systems in low- and middle-income countries. We describe how national programs leveraged these PEPFAR-supported laboratory resources for SARS-CoV-2 testing during the COVID-19 pandemic. We sent a spreadsheet template consisting of 46 indicators for assessing the use of PEPFAR-supported diagnostic networks for COVID-19 pandemic response activities during April 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021, to 27 PEPFAR-supported countries or regions. A total of 109 PEPFAR-supported centralized HIV viral load and early infant diagnosis laboratories and 138 decentralized HIV and TB sites reported performing SARS-CoV-2 testing in 16 countries. Together, these sites contributed to >3.4 million SARS-CoV-2 tests during the 1-year period. Our findings illustrate that PEPFAR-supported diagnostic networks provided a wide range of resources to respond to emergency COVID-19 diagnostic testing in 16 low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) antibody rapid testing (RT) in resource-limited settings has proven to be a successful intervention to increase access to prevention measures and improve timely linkage to care. However, the quality of testing has not always kept pace with the scale-up of this testing strategy. To monitor the accuracy of HIV RT test results, a national proficiency testing (PT) program was rolled out at selected testing sites in Ghana using the dried tube specimen (DTS) approach. METHODS: Between 2015 and 2018, 635 HIV testing sites, located in five regions and supported by the U.S. President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), were enrolled in the HIV PT program of the Ghana Health Service National AIDS/STI Control Programme. These sites offered various services: HIV Testing and Counselling (HTC), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and Antiretroviral Treatment (ART). The PT panels, composed of six DTS, were prepared by two regional laboratories, using fully characterized plasma obtained from the regional blood banks and distributed to the testing sites. The results were scored by the PT providers according to the predefined acceptable performance criteria which was set at ≥ 95%. RESULTS: Seven rounds of PT panels were completed successfully over three years. The number of sites enrolled increased from 205 in round 1 (June 2015) to 635 in round 7 (December 2018), with a noticeable increase in Greater Accra and Eastern regions. The average participation rates of enrolled sites ranged from 88.0% to 98.0% across the PT rounds. By round 7, HTC (257/635 (40.5%)) and PMTCT (237/635 (37.3%)) had a larger number of sites that participated in the PT program than laboratory (106/635 (16.7%)) and ART (12/635 (1.9%)) sites. The average testing performance rate improved significantly from 27% in round 1 to 80% in round 7 (p < 0.001). The highest performance rate was observed for ART (100%), HTC (92%), ANC/PMTCT (90%) and Laboratory (89%) in round 5. CONCLUSION: The DTS PT program showed a significant increase in the participation and performance rates during this period. Sub-optimal performances observed was attributed to non-compliance to the national testing algorithm and testing technique. However, the implementation of review meetings, peer-initiated corrective action, supportive supervisory training, and mentorship proved impactful. The decentralized approach to preparing the PT panels ensured ownership by the region and districts.

Background: In October 2020, an investigation began in Canada on an outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium infections of the same strain as a concomitant outbreak in the United States (US) that was linked to pet hedgehogs. The objective of this article is to identify the source of the outbreak, determine if there was a link between the Canadian and US outbreaks and identify risk factors for infection to inform public health interventions.

Background: In October 2020, an investigation began in Canada on an outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium infections of the same strain as a concomitant outbreak in the United States (US) that was linked to pet hedgehogs. The objective of this article is to identify the source of the outbreak, determine if there was a link between the Canadian and US outbreaks and identify risk factors for infection to inform public health interventions.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for N95 respirators far exceeded the supply, leading to widespread shortages. Initially, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention did not recommend N95 respirators in nonhealthcare settings, in order to reserve them for healthcare workers. As N95s became more available, the recommendations were updated in May 2021 to include N95 respirators for nonhealthcare settings. In this study, we estimated the numbers of N95s needed for nonhealthcare essential workers in the United States. This information is valuable for crisis preparedness and planning for future large-scale communicable respiratory infectious disease epidemics or pandemics. We adapted a spreadsheet-based tool originally built to estimate the potential demand for N95 respirators during an influenza pandemic. We defined nonhealthcare essential occupations according to the 2020 US Department of Homeland Security guidance and used US Bureau of Labor Statistics employment numbers and Occupational Information Network data as model parameters. We modeled minimum, intermediate, and maximum N95 provision scenarios (as 1, 2, and 5 N95 respirators, respectively) per week per worker, for pandemic durations of 15 and 40 weeks. For 85.15 million nonhealthcare essential workers during a 15-week pandemic, an estimated 1.3 billion N95 respirators would be needed under minimum provision scenarios, 2.6 billion for intermediate provision, and 6.4 billion for maximum provision. During a 40-week pandemic, these estimates increased to 3.4 billion, 6.8 billion, and 17 billion. Public health authorities and policymakers can use these estimates when considering workplace respirator-wearing practices, including prioritization of allocation, for nonhealthcare essential workers. Our novel spreadsheet-based tool can also be used to quickly generate estimates of other preparedness and response equipment.

SignificanceThis paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

OBJECTIVE: This project aimed to quantify and compare Massachusetts and Georgia public school districts' 2017-2018 winter-storm-related Twitter unplanned school closure announcements (USCA). METHODS: Public school district Twitter handles and National Center for Education Statistics data were obtained for Georgia and Massachusetts. Tweets were retrieved using Twitter application programming interface. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses were conducted to compare the rates of winter-storm-related USCA. RESULTS: Massachusetts had more winter storms than Georgia during the 2017-2018 winter season, but Massachusetts school districts posted winter-storm-related USCA at a 60% lower rate per affected day (adjusted rate ratio, aRR = 0.40, 95% confidence intervals, CI: 0.30, 0.52) than Georgia school districts after controlling for the student enrollments and Twitter followers count per Twitter account. A 10-fold increase in followers count was correlated with a 118% increase in USCA rate per affected day (aRR = 2.18; 95% CI: 1.74, 2.75). Georgia school districts had a higher average USCA tweet rate per winter-storm-affected day than Massachusetts school districts. A higher number of Twitter followers was associated with a higher number of USCA tweets per winter-storm-affected day. CONCLUSION: Twitter accounts of school districts in Massachusetts had a lower tweet rate for USCA per winter-storm-affected days than those in Georgia.

OBJECTIVE: Researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention monitor unplanned school closure (USC) reports through online systematic searches (OSS) to assist public health emergency responses. We counted the additional reports identified through social media along with OSS to improve USC monitoring. METHODS: Facebook and Twitter data of public-school districts and private schools in counties affected by California wildfires in October and December of 2017 and January of 2018 were retrieved. We computed descriptive statistics and performed multivariable logistic regression for both OSS and social media data. RESULTS: Among the 362 public-school districts in wildfire-affected counties, USCs were identified for 115 (32%) districts, of which OSS identified 104 (90%), Facebook, 59 (52%), and Twitter, 37 (32%). These data correspond to 4622 public schools, among which USCs were identified for 888 (19.2%) schools, of which OSS identified 722 (81.3%), Facebook, 496 (55.9%), and Twitter, 312 (35.1%). Among 1289 private schools, USCs were identified for 104 schools, of which OSS identified 47 (45.2%), Facebook, 67 (64.4%), and Twitter, 29 (27.9%). USC announcements identified via social media, in addition to those via OSS, were 11 public school districts, 166 public schools, and 57 private schools. CONCLUSION: Social media complements OSS as additional resources for USC monitoring during disasters.

BACKGROUND: Large-scale longitudinal studies evaluating influences of the built environment on risk for type 2 diabetes (T2D) are scarce, and findings have been inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether land use environment (LUE), a proxy of neighborhood walkability, is associated with T2D risk across different US community types, and to assess whether the association is modified by food environment. METHODS: The Veteran's Administration Diabetes Risk (VADR) study is a retrospective cohort of diabetes-free US veteran patients enrolled in VA primary care facilities nationwide from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2016, and followed longitudinally through December 31, 2018. A total of 4,096,629 patients had baseline addresses available in electronic health records that were geocoded and assigned a census tract-level LUE score. LUE scores were divided into quartiles, where a higher score indicated higher neighborhood walkability levels. New diagnoses for T2D were identified using a published computable phenotype. Adjusted time-to-event analyses using piecewise exponential models were fit within four strata of community types (higher-density urban, lower-density urban, suburban/small town, and rural). We also evaluated effect modification by tract-level food environment measures within each stratum. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, higher LUE had a protective effect on T2D risk in rural and suburban/small town communities (linear quartile trend test p-value <0.001). However, in lower density urban communities, higher LUE increased T2D risk (linear quartile trend test p-value <0.001) and no association was found in higher density urban communities (linear quartile trend test p-value = 0.317). Particularly strong protective effects were observed for veterans living in suburban/small towns with more supermarkets and more walkable spaces (p-interaction = 0.001). CONCLUSION: Among veterans, LUE may influence T2D risk, particularly in rural and suburban communities. Food environment may modify the association between LUE and T2D.

IMPORTANCE: Evidence of the impact of COVID-19 case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) programs is lacking, but policy makers need this evidence to assess the value of such programs. OBJECTIVE: To estimate COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted nationwide by US states' CICT programs. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This decision analytical model study used combined data from US CICT programs (eg, proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days to case and contact notification) with incidence data to model outcomes of CICT over a 60-day period (November 25, 2020, to January 23, 2021). The study estimated a range of outcomes by varying assumed compliance with isolation and quarantine recommendations. Fifty-nine state and territorial health departments that received federal funding supporting COVID-19 pandemic response activities were eligible for inclusion. Data analysis was performed from July to September 2021. EXPOSURE: Public health case investigation and contact tracing. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes were numbers of cases and hospitalizations averted and the percentage of cases averted among cases not prevented by vaccination and other nonpharmaceutical interventions. RESULTS: In total, 22 states and 1 territory reported all measures necessary for the analysis. These 23 jurisdictions covered 42.5% of the US population (approximately 140 million persons), spanned all 4 US Census regions, and reported data that reflected all 59 federally funded CICT programs. This study estimated that 1.11 million cases and 27 231 hospitalizations were averted by CICT programs under a scenario where 80% of interviewed cases and monitored contacts and 30% of notified contacts fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidance, eliminating their contributions to future transmission. As many as 1.36 million cases and 33 527 hospitalizations could have been prevented if all interviewed cases and monitored contacts had entered into and fully complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines upon being interviewed or notified. Across both scenarios and all jurisdictions, CICT averted an estimated median of 21.2% (range, 1.3%-65.8%) of the cases not prevented by vaccination and other nonpharmaceutical interventions. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that CICT programs likely had a substantial role in curtailing the pandemic in most jurisdictions during the 2020 to 2021 winter peak. Differences in outcomes across jurisdictions indicate an opportunity to further improve CICT effectiveness. These estimates demonstrate the potential benefits from sustaining and improving these programs.

Tests for recent HIV infection (TRI) distinguish recent from long-term HIV infections using markers of antibody maturation. The limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (LAg EIA) is widely used with HIV viral load (VL) in a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) to improve classification of recent infection status, estimate population-level HIV incidence, and monitor trends in HIV transmission. A novel rapid test for recent HIV infection (RTRI), Asanté™, can determine HIV serostatus and HIV recency within minutes on a lateral flow device through visual assessment of test strip or reader device. We conducted a field-based laboratory evaluation of the RTRI among pregnant adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) attending antenatal clinics (ANC) in Malawi.We enrolled pregnant AGYW aged <25 years testing HIV-positive for the first time at their first ANC visit from 121 ANCs in four high-HIV burden districts. Consenting participants provided blood for recency testing using LAg EIA and RTRI, which were tested in central laboratories. Specimens with LAg EIA normalized optical density values ≤2.0 were classified as probable recent infections. RTRI results were based on: (1) visual assessment: presence of a long-term line (LT) indicating non-recent infection and absence of the line indicating recent infection; or (2) a reader; specimens with LT line intensity units <3.0 were classified as probable recent infections. VL was measured for specimens classified as a probable recent infections by either assay; those with HIV-1 RNA ≥1,000 copies/mL were classified as confirmed recent infections. We evaluated the performance of the RTRI by calculating correlation between RTRI and LAg EIA results, and percent agreement and kappa between RTRI and LAg EIA RITA results.Between November 2017 to June 2018, 380 specimens were available for RTRI evaluation; 376 (98.9%) were confirmed HIV-positive on RTRI. Spearman's rho between RTRI and LAg EIA was 0.72 indicating strong correlation. Percent agreement and kappa between RTRI- and LAg EIA-based RITAs were >90% and >0.65 respectively indicating substantial agreement between the RITAs.This was the first field evaluation of an RTRI in sub-Saharan Africa, which demonstrated good performance of the assay and feasibility of integrating RTRI into routine HIV testing services for real-time surveillance of recent HIV infection.

We used data from the 2016 Nepal National Micronutrient Status Survey to evaluate factors associated with anaemia (World Health Organization cut-points using altitude- and smoking-adjusted haemoglobin [Hb]) among nationally representative samples of adolescents 10-19 years. Hb, biomarkers of micronutrients, infection and inflammation were assessed from venous blood. Sociodemographic and household characteristics, dietary diversity, pica and recent morbidity were ascertained by interview. We explored bivariate relationships between candidate predictors and anaemia among boys (N = 967) and girls (N = 1,680). Candidate predictors with P < 0.05 in bivariate analyses were included in sex-specific multivariable logistic regression models. Anaemia prevalence was 20.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] [17.1, 24.1]) among girls and 10.9% (95% CI [8.2, 13.6]) among boys. Among girls, living in the Mountain and Hill ecological zones relative to the Terai (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.28, 95% CI [0.15, 0.52] and AOR 0.42, 95% CI [0.25, 0.73], respectively), ln ferritin (μg/L) (AOR 0.53, 95% CI [0.42, 0.68]) and ln retinol binding protein (RBP) (μmol/L) (AOR 0.08, 95% CI [0.04, 0.16]) were associated with reduced anaemia odds. Older age (age in years AOR 1.19, 95% CI [1.12, 1.27]) and Janajati ethnicity relative to the Muslim ethnicity (AOR 3.04, 95% CI [1.10, 8.36]) were associated with higher anaemia odds. Among boys, ln RBP [μmol/L] (AOR 0.25, 95% CI [0.10, 0.65]) and having consumed flesh foods (AOR 0.57, 95% CI [0.33, 0.99]) were associated with lower anaemia odds. Open defecation (AOR 2.36, 95% CI [1.15, 4.84]) and ln transferrin receptor [mg/L] (AOR 3.21, 95% CI [1.25, 8.23]) were associated with increased anaemia odds. Anaemia among adolescents might be addressed through effective public health policy and programs targeting micronutrient status, diet and sanitation.

OBJECTIVE: We examined whether relative availability of fast-food restaurants and supermarkets mediates the association between worse neighborhood socioeconomic conditions and risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: As part of the Diabetes Location, Environmental Attributes, and Disparities Network, three academic institutions used harmonized environmental data sources and analytic methods in three distinct study samples: (1) the Veterans Administration Diabetes Risk (VADR) cohort, a national administrative cohort of 4.1 million diabetes-free veterans developed using electronic health records (EHRs); (2) Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS), a longitudinal, epidemiologic cohort with Stroke Belt region oversampling (N = 11,208); and (3) Geisinger/Johns Hopkins University (G/JHU), an EHR-based, nested case-control study of 15,888 patients with new-onset T2D and of matched control participants in Pennsylvania. A census tract-level measure of neighborhood socioeconomic environment (NSEE) was developed as a community type-specific z-score sum. Baseline food-environment mediators included percentages of (1) fast-food restaurants and (2) food retail establishments that are supermarkets. Natural direct and indirect mediating effects were modeled; results were stratified across four community types: higher-density urban, lower-density urban, suburban/small town, and rural. RESULTS: Across studies, worse NSEE was associated with higher T2D risk. In VADR, relative availability of fast-food restaurants and supermarkets was positively and negatively associated with T2D, respectively, whereas associations in REGARDS and G/JHU geographies were mixed. Mediation results suggested that little to none of the NSEE-diabetes associations were mediated through food-environment pathways. CONCLUSIONS: Worse neighborhood socioeconomic conditions were associated with higher T2D risk, yet associations are likely not mediated through food-environment pathways.

IMPORTANCE: Diabetes causes substantial morbidity and mortality among adults in the US, yet its incidence varies across the country, suggesting that neighborhood factors are associated with geographical disparities in diabetes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between neighborhood food environment and risk of incident type 2 diabetes across different community types (high-density urban, low-density urban, suburban, and rural). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This is a national cohort study of 4 100 650 US veterans without type 2 diabetes. Participants entered the cohort between 2008 and 2016 and were followed up through 2018. The median (IQR) duration of follow-up was 5.5 (2.6-9.8) person-years. Data were obtained from Veterans Affairs electronic health records. Incident type 2 diabetes was defined as 2 encounters with type 2 diabetes International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision codes, a prescription for diabetes medication other than metformin or acarbose alone, or 1 encounter with type 2 diabetes International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision codes and 2 instances of elevated hemoglobin A1c (≥6.5%). Data analysis was performed from October 2020 to March 2021. EXPOSURES: Five-year mean counts of fast-food restaurants and supermarkets relative to other food outlets at baseline were used to generate neighborhood food environment measures. The association between food environment and time to incident diabetes was examined using piecewise exponential models with 2-year interval of person-time and county-level random effects stratifying by community types. RESULTS: The mean (SD) age of cohort participants was 59.4 (17.2) years. Most of the participants were non-Hispanic White (2 783 756 participants [76.3%]) and male (3 779 555 participants [92.2%]). The relative density of fast-food restaurants was positively associated with a modestly increased risk of type 2 diabetes in all community types. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 1.01 (95% CI, 1.00-1.02) in high-density urban communities, 1.01 (95% CI, 1.01-1.01) in low-density urban communities, 1.02 (95% CI, 1.01-1.03) in suburban communities, and 1.01 (95% CI, 1.01-1.02) in rural communities. The relative density of supermarkets was associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk only in suburban (aHR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.96-0.99) and rural (aHR, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.98-0.99) communities. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that neighborhood food environment measures are associated with type 2 diabetes among US veterans in multiple community types and that food environments are potential avenues for action to address the burden of diabetes. Tailored interventions targeting the availability of supermarkets may be associated with reduced diabetes risk, particularly in suburban and rural communities, whereas restrictions on fast-food restaurants may help in all community types.

Both rabies and snakebite primarily affect underserved and impoverished communities globally, with an estimated 200,000 people dying from these diseases annually, and the greatest burden being in Africa and Asia. Both diseases have been neglected and have thus been denied appropriate prioritization, support, and interventions, and face many of the challenges common to all neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In line with the call for integrated approaches between NTDs in the recent NTD Roadmap, we sought to build upon previous conceptualizations for an integrated approach by identifying the commonalities between snakebite and rabies to explore the feasibility of an integrated approach. While multiple areas for potential integration are identified, we highlight the potential pitfalls to integrating rabies and snakebite programs, considering the nuances that make each disease and its intervention program unique. We conclude that health system strengthening, and capacity building should be the focus of any integrated approach among NTDs, and that by strengthening overall health systems, both rabies and snakebite can advocate for further support from governments and stakeholders.

BACKGROUND: The low cost and small specimen volume of the VitMin Lab ELISA assays for serum ferritin (Fer), soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), C-reactive protein (CRP), and α-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) allowed their application to micronutrient surveys conducted in low-resource countries for ∼2 decades. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a comparison between the ELISA and reference-type assays used in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. METHODS: Using the Roche clinical analyzer as a reference, we measured random subsets of the 2016 Nepal National Micronutrient Status Survey (200 serum samples from children 6-59 mo; 100 serum samples from non-pregnant women) for Fer, sTfR, CRP, and AGP. We compared the combined data sets to the ELISA survey results using descriptive analyses. RESULTS: The Lin's concordance coefficients between the 2 assays were ≥ 0.89 except for sTfR (Lin's rho = 0.58). The median relative difference to the reference was: Fer -8.5%, sTfR 71.2%, CRP -19.5%, and AGP -8.2%. The percentage of VitMin samples agreeing within ± 30% of the reference was: Fer 88.5%, sTfR 1.70%, CRP 74.9%, and AGP 92.9%. The prevalence of abnormal results was comparable between the 2 assays for Fer, CRP, and AGP, and for sTfR after adjusting to the Roche assay. Continued biannual performance (2007-2019) of the VitMin assays in CDC's external quality assessment program (6 samples/y) demonstrated generally acceptable performance. CONCLUSION: Using samples from the Nepal survey, the VitMin ELISA assays produced mostly comparable results to the Roche reference-type assays for Fer, CRP, and AGP. The lack of sTfR assay standardization to a common reference material explains the large systematic difference observed for sTfR, which could be corrected by an adjustment equation pending further validation. This snapshot comparison together with the long-term external quality assessment links the survey data generated by the VitMin Lab to the Roche assays used in NHANES.

CONTEXT: The implementation of case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) for controlling COVID-19 (caused by SARS-CoV-2 virus) has proven challenging due to varying levels of public acceptance and initially constrained resources, especially enough trained staff. Evaluating the impacts of CICT will aid efforts to improve such programs. OBJECTIVES: Estimate the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by CICT and identify CICT processes that could improve overall effectiveness. DESIGN: We used data on the proportion of cases interviewed, contacts notified or monitored, and days from testing to case and contact notification from 14 jurisdictions to model the impact of CICT on cumulative case counts and hospitalizations over a 60-day period. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's COVIDTracer Advanced tool, we estimated a range of impacts by assuming either contacts would quarantine only if monitored or would do so upon notification of potential exposure. We also varied the observed program metrics to assess their relative influence. RESULTS: Performance by jurisdictions varied widely. Jurisdictions isolated between 12% and 86% of cases (including contacts that became cases) within 6 to 10 days after infection. We estimated that CICT-related reductions in transmission ranged from 0.4% to 32%. For every 100 remaining cases after other nonpharmaceutical interventions were implemented, CICT averted between 4 and 97 additional cases. Reducing time to case isolation by 1 day increased averted case estimates by up to 15 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of cases interviewed or contacts notified by 20 percentage points each resulted in at most 3 or 6 percentage point improvements in averted cases. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that CICT reduced the number of COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations among all jurisdictions studied. Reducing time to isolation produced the greatest improvements in impact of CICT.

Pregnant individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 have higher rates of ICU admission, oxygen requirement, need for mechanical ventilation and death than non-pregnant individuals. Increased COVID-19 disease severity may be associated with increased risk for viremia and placental infection. Maternal SARS-CoV-2 infection is also associated with pregnancy complications such as preeclampsia and preterm birth, that can be either placentally-mediated or reflected in the placenta. Maternal viremia followed by placental infection may lead to maternal-fetal transmission (vertical), which affects 1-3% of exposed newborns. However, there is no agreed-upon or standard definition of placental infection. NIH/NICHD convened a group of experts to propose a working definition of placental infection to inform ongoing studies of SARS-CoV-2 during pregnancy. Experts recommended that placental infection be defined using techniques that allow virus detection and localization in placental tissue by one or more of the following methods: in-situ hybridization with anti-sense probe (detects replication) and/or a sense probe (detects viral genome or immunohistochemistry to detect viral nucleocapsid (N) or spike (S) proteins. If the above methods are not possible, RT-PCR detection and/or quantification of viral RNA in placental homogenates, or electron microscopy are alternative approaches. A graded classification for the likelihood of placental infection as definitive, probable, possible, and unlikely was proposed. Manuscripts reporting placental infection should describe the sampling method (location and number of samples collected), method of preservation of tissue, and detection technique. Recommendations were made for the handling of the placenta, examination, and sampling, as well as the use of validated reagents and sample protocols (included as appendices).

INTRODUCTION: Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are common during pregnancy and can result in adverse delivery and birth outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate the prevalence of STIs; Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG), Treponema pallidum (syphilis), Trichomonas vaginalis (trichomoniasis), and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) among pregnant women visiting an antenatal care center in Nepal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We adapted and piloted the WHO standard protocol for conducting a prevalence survey of STIs among pregnant women visiting antenatal care center of Dhulikhel Hospital, Nepal. Patient recruitment, data collection, and specimen testing took place between November 2019-March 2020. First catch urine sample was collected from each eligible woman. GeneXpert platform was used for CT and NG testing. Wet-mount microscopy of urine sample was used for detection of trichomoniasis. Serological test for HIV was done by rapid and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay tests. Serological test for syphilis was done using "nonspecific non-treponemal" and "specific treponemal" antibody tests. Tests for CT, NG and trichomoniasis were done as part of the prevalence study while tests for syphilis and HIV were done as part of the routine antenatal testing. RESULTS: 672 women were approached to participate in the study, out of which 591 (87.9%) met the eligibility criteria and consented to participate. The overall prevalence of any STIs was 8.6% (51/591, 95% CI: 6.3-10.8); 1.5% (95% CI: 0.5-2.5) for CT and 7.1% (95% CI: 5.0-9.2) for trichomoniasis infection. None of the samples tested positive for NG, HIV or syphilis. Prevalence of any STI was not significantly different among women, age ≤ 24 years (10%, 25/229) compared to women age ≥25 years (7.1%, 26/362) (p = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of trichomoniasis among pregnant women in this sub-urban population of Nepal was high compared to few cases of CT and no cases of NG, syphilis, and HIV. The WHO standard protocol provided a valuable framework for conducting STI surveillance that can be adapted for other countries and populations.